Ulster 2011-2012: Wherefore art thou, silverware?

I thought in the midst of the tumultuous dayglo distraction of the RWC that I would seize a moment to ruminate on Ulster’s upcoming Pro 12 and HEC seasons. If nothing else, it will be interesting to look back on this further down the line and see if I hit any targets. I am going to try to make this a fairly sober, cold-light-of-day assessment, centred on the head, not the heart.

I think this will be a season of consolidation. I don’t expect us to do as well in the race for silverware as last season.

My reasoning is pretty straightforward. In the latter half of the season, I expect us to have a seriously good first 22/23. Ferris, Muller, Pienaar, Trimble, Payne, Afoa (assuming they replicate their Southern form) - they are players that would grace most Pro 12 starting line-ups. I am delighted to have Muller as captain this season - between him, Best, and Pienaar we have a whole patchwork of players with leadership ability. Come match-day, we will give anyone a game.

However, even beyond the usual injury concerns that trouble every team (and Ferris will have to be managed with some care), we will have a lot of issues in man management. At the core of the issue is the fact that we have close to - if not the - smallest squad in the Pro 12, to say nothing of the HEC. A lot of extremely talented young players on development contracts (Jackson, Marshall, Annett and so on), but as I understand it, we have 33 on full-time contracts. That’s nothing. Our squad was already painfully small last season, and we lost Cunningham and Pollock to injury. And look at the ins and outs:

IN: Black, Stevenson, Afoa, Payne, McComish
OUT: Young, Anderson, O’Connor, Caldwell, McCrea, Seymour, Smith, Botha, McIlwane

So our squad is even smaller this year. I think we are going to miss squad players like McCrea, Seymour and Smith. Seymour and McCrea, in particular, could do a job at Magners’ level.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Munster won the last Magners League and they had the largest squad in the competition. I think their win-loss ratio was a testament to the number of players they had that could do a solid job and wouldn’t let the side down. I’m not talking about the O’Connells, the Earls or the Howletts of this world, or even the bright young hopes such as Nagle, but the Coughlans, Mick O’Driscolls and Hurleys..

The following players will be away at the RWC (I lazily predict) - Court, Best, Ferris, Wallace and Trimble for Ireland, Pienaar for South Africa and Danielli for Scotland. Afoa I’m not sure about, but on the expectation that he would be, his contract doesn’t start until December. That’s eight out of thirty-three. Of course it’s an opportunity for youngsters to step up, and we do have some exciting youngsters, but given the very nature of callow youth, it’ll be a hit-and-miss few months for us at the start of the season. Every team is in the same boat, of course, but most other teams have more depth. An injury to Cave and D’Arcy during that period and we could be looking at a Jackson-Allen-Marshall-Spence-Gilroy-Gaston backline. How much would you give to be able to put McCrea or Seymour in there, and lessen the reliance on players who wouldn’t get served in a pub? I am excited to see how these guys do, but I’m not confident that the wins will come, to be brutally honest.

What will make or break us is whether our second-seasoners stand up. McAllister, Faloon, Spence, Gilroy, D’Arcy. Add to that the guys that are evolving into our warhorses - Henry and Cave.

Where we are really thin is at wing and back row. We need Diack to stay consistent this season, and assert himself a bit more. We need Faloon to progress. Because Ferris will be a relatively rare commodity, assuming he makes it back from the RWC in one piece. And if Gilroy gets injured during the RWC or the Six Nations, we are in serious trouble. Same goes for iHumph til Pienaar and Wallace get back - Jackson’s most definitely on the right road, but he’s just started along it. (On the other hand, we are laughing at hooker, second row and centre.)

What does matter to me - and what stops this pessimism making my head drop - is that I do feel there is A Plan. We are building towards something, both literally and figuratively. Our NIQs are completely on a different level to those we had a few years ago (Schifcofske? Horua?) Youth is being blooded, experience is being brought in where we lack. There are three sharp brains that are shaping and sculpting Ulster Rugby - Logan, Humphreys and McLaughlin. And that process doesn’t happen overnight And that might mean that this season, results-wise, feels like a bit of a step backwards. I’m prepared for that. We are growing something special. If, as he seemed to let slip, Pienaar has already signed an extension, that means every one of our NIQs is happy and wants to stay and help re-make Ulster rugby. (Botha, as I understand it, wanted to stay but played silly buggers about money, and was told to go.) These are seasoned internationals that are doing a lot more than playing eighty minutes on a rugby pitch of a week. Payne has already spoken in interviews about being keen to take on a mantle of leadership amongst our backs and help them develop.

But back to this season. With an HEC group as tough as ours, and at this stage in our evolution, I can see us failing to make the knock-outs this year. A couple of tough learning experiences for the lads. As for the Rab C., I could see us missing out on the play-offs. I think the Dragons and possibly the Ospreys will be notably improved. Glasgow also, when their internationals return.

Having said that, if you’d have told me this time last year that we’d make the semi-finals of the Magners and quarters of the HEC, I’d have laughed in your face and told you to dream on. So what do I know?

I still think that we can make the play-offs in teh Celtic League, we're missing players and using youth for the start of the year, but so is nearly everybody else, and a lot of our youth got gametime last year so are prepared a little.

in the H-cup can't see us qualifing of even making Almin cup.

2nd place would be good with home wins over everybody and an away against Aironi being a good H-cup run.

Really hoping that even if we don't get out of the h-cup group or in the Magners league play-offs, that for the home games against Leinster, Munster, Leicester and Clermont, we could win maybe 2/3 out of 4 of these, and get LBP away in 2 outa 4 (or sneak a win) to these teams would show improvement.

Oh and if the old Celtic Cup came back it would be our best chance of silverware.

Good read. Good realistic analysis

Think we will be moving forward as a team this year, even if we don't win anything. I'm hoping for a playoff spot in the Pro12 though. It'll be our younger players who get us there if we get there.

Im fairly positive. Heineken will be tough but i think the Pro 12 is realistic.

on another positive note , i just saw a couple of photos of that Farrell lad (i think) that was playing 13 against neath. By god he is huge for a kid of 18!

Yes, he is a big lad alright. Interesting prospect.

Forgot to say good article, well thought out, but I think the the kids won't let us down, hopefully while the internationals are away there are enough old heads to guide them, (I count Cave as an old head now, he's still young but has plenty of experience at Celtic Leauge Level).

I think Ulsters target this year should be to do just one of the three below

1) Get out of H- cup group,
if don't do that
2) Get into Celtic League play offs,
if don't do that
3) For the home games against Leinster, Munster, Leicester and Clermont, win at least 2 out of 4 of these, and get LBP away in 2 out of 4 (or get one away win)

Doing any single one of the 3 would show an improvement ready for next year. Failing to complete at least one of these, would be a step backwards imo.

I think Ulster should do quite well at the start of the season. They havent lost to many and are still putting out a good side by comparison to others.

The first 9 fixtures are:-
1. Glasgow (Home)
2. Aironi (Away)
3. Blues (Home)
4. Ospreys (Away)
5. Dragons (Away)
6. Treviso (Home)
7. Scarlets (Away)
8. Connacht (Home)
9. Glasgow (Away)

For me Ulster could easily win the opening 3 games of the season and with the record they have against the Ospreys I wouldnt rule them out of winning that one either. I reckon they may even be 5 from 6 by November.

Ulster are missing 9 players at least at the start of the season (8 at the World Cup and 1 late arrival from NZ) and if you throw in injuries that could be 13+ so not sure where 'not lost many' comes in.

That is from a squad of 32 full contract and 6 development ones. We will be stretched.

Our actual/potential missing team

Court, Best, Afoa, Muller, Tuohy, Ferris, - , -, Pienaer, Humphreys, Wallace, Spence, Trimble, Danielli, Payne

Thats a lot of talent

Pienaar is clearly third choice SH for the Boks now though. In fact in some circles there was talk of him not making the Bok squad but Muller sneaking in. I will be very interested to see that RWC squad. It could impact us really heavily

Geoff - who are the six on development contracts? Jackson, McKinney, Marshall, Macklin, Annett, Cronin?

I'd expect teams like Munster, Leinster and the Blues to make hay while the sun shines with their larger squads.

Springbok squad named in an hour or so. I'd be nearly certain that Pienaar will be in and Muller won't.

Our strongest team on paper would be;

1. Tom Court (WC)
2. Rory Best (WC)
3. John Afoa (WC)
4. Johann Muller (Inj)
5. Dan Tuohy (Inj)
6. Stephen Ferris (WC)
7. Chris Henry
8. Pedrie Wannenburg
9. Ruan Pienaar (WC)
10. Ian Humphreys (Inj)
11. Simon Danielli (WC)
12. Paddy Wallace (WC)
13. Darren Cave
14. Andrew Trimble (WC)
15. Jared Payne(late arrival)

Red is for players who are unavailable right now, green is for those who are. If Muller and Humphreys go from red to green we'll look a lot better but we are a good bit below strength at the moment unfortunately.

Still, I'm reasonably confident in the ability of the guys who are available; some really talented younger players and a few very experienced older guys still around. I'm reasonably confident we can steady the ship until we start getting some of these injured boys back on the field during the RWC period. I don't think there's much between Gilroy and Danielli, or Stevenson and Tuohy. We will be strong enough to compete with other weakened sides in this period.

Muller in Notch. Delighted for him but worried for Ulster.

Just saw that. Captaincy to Henry, and as much as I like Henry, it's obviously a massive drop-off in leadership. Massive.

Serious question - what other provinces are losing NIQs for the RWC? We're losing three. I suppose having top quality NIQ players is a double-edged sword.
Scheisse.

Team for during the rwc

Paddy Mc 21
Kyriacou 28
Declan Fitz 28
Stevenson 27
Tuohy/Barker 26/30
Henry 26
Faloon 25
Wannenburg 30
Marshall P 26
IHumph 29
Gilroy 20
Marshall L 20
Cave 24
Spence 21
D'arcy/Payne 25/25


Thats the age of each of the squad aswell. Very young and we are lighter in terms of experience. Exciting times ahead. We seriously need our young backs to kick on though

Muller going to the WC. Very pleased for him but this is pretty bad news for Ulster. Henry as captain in September/October?

So here is our squad that will set the tone for the beginning of the season basically;

PROPS
Paddy McAllister, Callum Black, Declan Fitzpatrick, Adam Macklin, Jerry Cronin
HOOKERS
Andi Kyriacou, Nigel Brady, Niall Annett, John Burns
LOCKS
Tim Barker, Neil McComb, Lewis Stevenson, Dan Tuohy
BACKROW
Pedrie Wannenburg, Mike McComish, Chris Henry, Willie Faloon, Robbie Diack
SCRUMHALF
Paul Marshall, Ian Porter, Blane McIlroy
OUTHALF
Ian Humphreys, Paddy Jackson, James McKinney
CENTRES
Luke Marshall, Ian Whitten, Darren Cave, Nevin Spence
BACK THREE
Craig Gilroy, Adam D'Arcy, Conor Gaston, Ricky Andrew, (Jared Payne- arriving September)

We have those players to work with until October at the very earliest. We have six games in that period.

Ulster vs Glasgow
Aironi vs Ulster
Ulster vs Cardiff
Ospreys vs Ulster
Dragons vs Ulster
Ulster vs Treviso

I'm exceptionally worried by this situation. We are seriously weakened. Us losing 9 players to the World Cup hurts a lot more than Munster losing 9 players to the World Cup. We've lost our current and former club Captain, our main playmaker and the majority of our tight five. Very concerned Ulster fan right now.

Don - Marshall has a full contract, Porter remains on a development contract.- otherwise you are right.

Henry will be captain I am sure.

Good news on the injury front - Humph may well make Quins and will definitely be ok for Glasgow.
Spence and Tuohy are both on the mend as well and could easily make Glasgow - I would suggest the bench in both cases. Spence I am sure this is the case, Tuohy is a bit of a guess.

Bad news is the Matt Sexton story seems have gone cold and the flanker from Leinster story is dead.

Brian Young turned down England looked like he was to retire but an offer from a club side in Italy has been accepted - obvious prefers the weather in Northern Italy as opppsed to Doncaster/Rotherham

Notch given those 6 fixtures I honestly don't think we can have any excuses given the players Glasgow, Aironi, Trevisio and Cardiff have lost. We should be capable of winning those 4 matches.

Well Muller and Pienaar have been included in SA World Cup squad. Takes their total to 9 players away. I'm on the fence with their chances in the early season. First 6 games may go wrong for Ulster and if that does become the case they may struggle in the latter part of the season to secure a top 4 spot. I reckon a 5 or 6 finsih may be on the cards for them this season.

Given our start and given the fact the injuries are clearing up we have a starting 15 of:

McAllister, Kyriacou. Fitzpatrick, Stevenson, Tuohy, Henry, Wannenburg, Faloon, Marshall, Humphreys, Gilroy, Marshall, Cave, Spence, D'Arcy/Payne

Bench: Brady, Black, Cronin, Barker, Diack, Porter, Jackson, Gaston

I just don't think that is too bad and should be well capable of winning 4 or 5 of those games.
Remember other teams are missing a lot of players as well and do not have the quality we have in the team above.

As an FYI re squad for next year don't forget Cochrane

I have faith the young Guns can carry us through,
ok we don't have the squad that others do to cope, but I think that only Leinster, Munster and Ospreys do have the squads to cope, everyone else is pretty much (more or less) in the same boat (taken squad size, player call ups and experince andquality of youth being played).

First Games against Glasgow, they've lost at least the same number of players, and I think the team we can put out will be better than the team they are able to , added home advantage, Ulster Should win, (75% Ulster chance of a win)

next away to Aironi, they've lost a large number of players and are still trying to gel, it's an ideal time to get them (as later in the year at home they could be difficult to beat), should be another Ulster win (75% chance)

With two wins under their belt, the confidence boost this gives the young players would be great.

next Ulster V Cardiff, Cardiff have lost a lot of players and will be wanting to make up for last year, think they will still be gelling, but it'll be a close game, giving Ulster the better chance due to home advantage (60% chance).

Ospreys vs Ulster next Ospeys have a bigger squad and are at home, however they may need more time than Ulster to gel, as Ospreys are in transition and bringing youth through (Ulster a year or 2 ahead in this)
(35% Ulster chance)

Dragons vs Ulster, Dragons maybe lost more than they thought and have a smaller squad than Ulster (maybe not in depth but in quality) however they are at home (50% Ulster chance)

Ulster vs Treviso same as Aironi slightly tougher, but Ulster at home
(75% Ulster win)


therefore IMO Ulster have a good chance of winning most games, and should win 4 out of 6, leaving us in around the top 5, is my guess.

The word Kingshu used was 'faith' and to be honest thats what all the fans need. I feel in order to be confident we would have needed Muller in there to guide them. As it is we must have faith in the youngsters to do the job. There is talent there no question but for some of these guys it will be the first time they wont have a leader like Muller or a player like Pienaar to fall back on.

Good news on the injury front geoff. As for Bryan Young, i think if i was in his position and offered the chance to live comfortably in northern italy for a few years i might just take that up as well!

any word as regards Pienaar extending? I know that he gave an interview during the 3N where he stated he had 2 more seasons at Ulster, and now it seems Hougaard has usurped him in the 9 stakes for SA. I wonder would that help influence him in staying on.

Not sure Hougaard has usurped Pienaar yet. PDV messes with that team so much I doubt he has any clue regarding his first XV.

Muller is without doubt a big loss but as I said somewhere last night, it could be much worse is Touhy had made the Irish squad. As it is I think Barker and Touhy can serve us fine given other sides will be depleted.

The lineout is going to be an issue in Mullers absence. Can Stevenson call a linout? i thought he may have been doing it in the friendlys and if so great.

Yeah, Stevenson will probably be calling it. I think Stevenson will definitely be first choice out of the locks we have left by the way. Potentially Captain; either he or Chris Henry will Captain the side.

Chris Henry will be the captain.
Stevenson will start not Barker when everyone is fit.

That seems a bit harsh on Barker, I thought he had a pretty decent season. Team for Quins announced tomorrow?

We know that we can hold our own with a full team available, is it not true that WC year leagues are won and lost on the performance of the remnants of the teams left behind?

Certainly will be tense for a few months!

i though Barker was good as well but I'm very pleased that when everyone is fit we have 4 very capable locks, prop as good 4 locks as any other team in Europe

WillyGilly wrote:That seems a bit harsh on Barker, I thought he had a pretty decent season. Team for Quins announced tomorrow?

Team for Quins on the website now! Humphreys and Spence both in from the start

Spence at 12 though... would rather see Luke Marshall in there.

Ulster (15-9): A D'Arcy; C Gaston, D Cave, N Spence, C Gilroy; I Humphreys, P Marshall; (1-8) P McAllister, A Kyriacou, J Cronin, L Stevenson, N McComb, P Wannenburg, W Faloon, C Henry (Captain)

Replacements: N Brady, C Black, A Macklin, T Barker, D Tuohy, R Diack, I Porter, P Jackson, I Whitten, L Marshall, P Nelson

Is Declan Fitzpatrick injured?

So did Stevenson though Willy, Quins didn't want to lose him.

Close to what I expected.
Wasn't sure about Tuohy but great that he is back.
Spence surprises me - I didn't think he would be back till Glasgow - I would not be surprised if he and Marshall do a half each.
Tuohy and Barker would not be a good idea re lineouts. The fact that Caldy was useless in that department is one, of many, reasons he has been replaced by Stephenson - gives us a second line out caller.

I am trying to find out re Fitzpatrick now.
Of the full professional only he and McCormish are missing.

Will have to find out more about Nelson it seems.

Yea I was just tempting fate there wasn't I?

Must confess I thought I knew the accademy pretty well. Have no idea who P Nelson is. Another Gilroy?

18 year old just out of school.
Played 15 against Neath - has previous played centre for Irish representative sides.
Will watch the Neath video tonight with interest.

Where was he at school Geoff?

Royal School Dugannon

Same as David Pollock

geoff998rugby wrote:Will watch the Neath video tonight with interest.

Is that something you have, or is it available somewhere on the web?

CD not a Video - showing my age.

Something a relative of one of the team gave me - sorry to get hopes up

CD not a Video - showing my age.

oh dear
a DVD, not CD, age may well be catching up with you,

What did he say ma...............................you'll have to speak up !

Good team and i suspect Spence in the centre to try and get him up to speed. Luke Marshall already has half a game under his belt. Cant wait till friday now!

Looking forward to the HEC clashes with you boys, particularly welcomming Humphreys back to Welford Rd (I wasn't pleased when we let him go). Do you fancy your chances in the HEC this year as it is quite a tough group, certainly us Tiger fans are looking at it a little warily especially with how strong the Clermont team is looking.

Sam if we can win our home games and away in Italy I'll be happy. Can't see us winning away in England or France or even coming close. The league is ours this year though.

I think we're aiming for similar to be honest. If we can win all three at Welford Rd without giving away LBP and away at Italy with TBP and pick up LBP on our travels to Ireland and France that will do nicely.

formerly known as Sam wrote:I think we're aiming for similar to be honest. If we can win all three at Welford Rd without giving away LBP and away at Italy with TBP and pick up LBP on our travels to Ireland and France that will do nicely.

I'd say Leicester, Clermot and Ulster are all thinking the same thing.

If Aironi can spring a surprise like they did last year against Biarritz, it would make things very intresting, this group will come down to LBP's being picked up to decide who goes through, runner up will not get into anything, this is the Group of Death this year.

formerly known as Sam wrote:Looking forward to the HEC clashes with you boys, particularly welcomming Humphreys back to Welford Rd (I wasn't pleased when we let him go). Do you fancy your chances in the HEC this year as it is quite a tough group, certainly us Tiger fans are looking at it a little warily especially with how strong the Clermont team is looking.

Hoping for three home wins, a win at Aironi, and then we'll see what happens. It'll be a big ask to even get that but I believe we can do it.

The one thing in our favour is playing away to Clermont last.

If they are not likely to qualify they may just not put out the first XV.
Makes me think that a Leicester win in France would do us a favour and could result in Leicester and Ulster going through.

Otherwise could come down to the team with the most bonus points.

We crept through last year on bonus points, the draw with Perpignan at Welford Rd killed any chance we had of winning the group. Clermont will provide equally awkward opposition but as always it depend how many players England break and how many fall to the start of the season injury jinx that Tigers seem to always suffer from (Jordan Crane and Craig Newby have already fallen to it).

Update on Fitzpatrick.
Got a knock against Neath but should be fine for Glasgow.
Just a precaution.