Beware the wounded animal

Firstly, congratulations to the Wallabies. They are deserving 3N champs and are going to be a huge threat in the World Cup. Deans has finally started to get some selections right, particularly in the back row, and it´s a great sight to see such a comparatively old man belting down the field after a devilish fend and outpacing the fullback and wing, even if it is against your beloved team and decides the 3N!

With two consecutive losses and a double injury blow to Thomson and Read, suddenly some fairweather AB fans are starting to throw in the towel. But for me nothing has changed. Australia and South Africa loom as likely semi final and final opponents if the ABs win their pool and if they get that far. Yes I´m aware of the record. SA showed how a rush defence can unsettle the AB backline and force them into mistakes and Australia continued that strategy with big dividends in the first half.

Now I´d never go so far as to say losing is a good thing. South Africa have some much needed confidence back now going into the tournament and Australia are an even more dangerous side with their tails up. The Wallabies in particular are peaking at the right time and finally seem to be picking the form team. With two consecutive losses, some might argue that this just piles more pressure onto the ABs. Maybe, but to me this team is at its best when the pressure is on. Let´s go back to 2009. A horror season by all accounts for the ABs. A 3-0 whitewash to SA and a home test loss to France. NZ go to Marseille, not the happiest of hunting grounds, and France fancy themselves to finish off the year 2-1 against their Antipodean foe. They got hammered. Then go to 2010. The ABs have an off season to brood and pick at their festering pride. What happens at Eden Park? Domination of the dojo and one of the best years for the men in black. Then 2011, Hong Kong poohey result and the Wallabies are confident of breaking the Eden Park hoodoo. They get a lesson dealt to them.

Now I´m not going to give reasons why NZ lost in SA or Australia for the away legs. The better team won on both occasions and no complaints from me - well maybe you´ll allow me a gripe about the end result. But this is what still makes me feel confident about our chances. France looms as a big game in our pool. But we don´t have that game first up. We play Tonga who will give us a big physical work out. Full respect to Tonga but NZ have a proud record in terms of having lost to only 5 teams: France, Australia, South Africa, England and Wales. Our Jedi mind tricks seem to work on teams who have yet to beat us. We have an ideal opportunity to get some combinations gelling again after some chopping and changing of players. France gives us an even harder physical match in our pool group and I expect the 2007 result will see the ABs come out on top for this match for similar reasons I alluded to earlier. Then depending on the Scotland, Argentina, England matches I expect the first two to be likely quarter final opponents for NZ. That should see Kieran Read back into the team and a chance for him to have a hitout.

MJ said attitude would be a deciding factor in the RWC. I tend to agree with him. NZ came out with the right attitude in the home tests. They seemed off the pace badly in the first half against the Wallabies. Of course that has just as much to do with the right attitude the Wallabies came out in (how they changed from Auckland) and how well they played. But NZ saw with the pick and go tactics in the second half where Australia can be vulnerable. They got too cute and tried to spread it wide too early in the first half. I think that the last two results will see NZ come out with the right attitude if they happen to play Australia and SA. Plus there is the added advantage of playing at home - with the imposing Eden Park record - with no need for travel. Some people see playing at home as a disadvantage as it heaps more pressure on the ABs. But despite our RWC record, I think pressure has seen this current team perform at its best. Of course if NZ fall behind on the scoreboard, that will inevitably play on their minds but when these guys are focused and hungry, it´s difficult for opponents to get on top of them.

So I´m certainly not saying it´s going to be easy. Throw England and France into the mix and these are teams who can knock out opponents in this style of tournament. Everyone will be - or at least should be - behind their teams and there are quite a few teams who deserve to be quietly confident. I for one am in that camp. Of course my nerves are going to be jittering, frazzled mess by the end of this tournament but that´s what makes it a special tournament. It´s very difficult to argue with a Wallaby supporter, for example, who thinks that their team will win. They have every right to be confident. But so do NZ fans and I for one want to make it very clear that I am fully behind them in their quest. People may say these past results have seen NZ peak too early and their best days are behind them. But this is an unusual position for the ABs. Previously we had won every 3N going into the World Cup. It´s not a good thing we lost but nor do I think it´s a bad thing. These guys have a knack of playing their best when everybody starts to write them off. kia kaha aotearoa.

Fully agree with it all Kia- especially about our last 2 losses. That and the home factor make this very different from our recent cup efforts.

In the world of video replays,and secret tactics,they are good for one game.
In the real world nothings changed.IF these were any other International
the All Blacks would be saying one match at a time.
As I read it they have 4 potential problems before they start,back row cover for first two pool games.
With respect I don`t expect Read to be fit before the qtr finals,IF the ABs fail to get out of there group.There will be a bigger explosion than the Christchurch Earth quake.
Thomson may come off the bench for Japan,another problem is how Boric will go.He`s woefully short of practice and passengers in a RWC is a no-no.
The other thing is the SBW factor,do they dare use him now?IF he`s serious he can make a real contribution.
His physicality in defence off the bench is more telling than Toeva.
Frankly not sure about Toeva,a bit like Matt Tait,in and out,the utility bit is overdone.
Specialists for me every time,yes you nedd one or two,but five or six is overkill.

Anyway if he gets lost "HAPPY FEET"will come back to cheer them on

Morning Kia, good to hear from you.

All these losses did was make the RWC a little more exciting, fans are fickle and tend to put huge assumptions based on a game or two.

The results to me doesn't mean as much as how each team played, and I think that is the crux of the matter.

It is not really the fact that the All BLacks have lost two matches, it is inevitable when the three top nations play even the best of those must lose now and then.

Rather for me is what has been shown during game time, the Springboks ahve their hunger back, the Ozzies have their confidence back, and the All BLacks will now go into this with their feet on the ground.

At the end of the day it is like you said , they should all three be in a semi final. both teams in the professional era have won 30% of their matches vs NZ, so those are still the two teams with the best chance of upsetting the All BLacks.

The truth is, if any one of these three teams want to win the Webb Ellis they will have to be at their best, there is no hiding from that fact.

Yeah Biltong that was always going to be the case. If you don´t turn up with the right mindset and application right from the start and get behind on the scoreboard to teams of that quality then you´re going to make life too difficult for yourself.

I find it interesting this talk of the French entertaining fielding an understrength squad for the AB game. I think this is Lievremont trying to play mind games. There is arguably an easier draw to the team who are the runner up in that pool but I just don´t see how a team would willingly throw a game. It´s a dangerous road to go down on.

We seem to be wafer thin in fit backrowers. Whitelock can come in at blindside but really our reserves are stretched if there´s another injury. I was pleased to read that Jerome Kaino sees this as a perfect opportunity to stand up as a senior player. With Read and McCaw he was able to stand back and be the silent tackling assassin. I agree that this is the perfect time for him to take a more prominent role.

Jonah Lomu was quoted as saying Smith and Nonu are in the right form to outclass the likes of Carter and McCaw. I just don´t see SBW breaking up a partnership that has come together at the right time. I don´t even see him in a superbench role. I´d prefer to see Israel Dagg on the bench than him. Experience is what you want and specialist positions. I tend to agree Alan that Toeava is a man of many talents but not a specialist talent among them.

What we need from Henry and co is some consistency in selections. Now is the time to settle on your a Squad. Swallow their pride like they did in the autumn series last year and reinstate Hosea Gear. He´s the winger that offers the ability to make a try through power. Guilford just doesn´t cut it and put Jane on the other wing for me. Woodcock needs more game time as the scrum is not right and I agree Boric is underdone. For me Thorn, Whitelock and Williams should be the locks. Fingers crossed that Read makes a quick recovery as he is a vital player.

Certainly there are still issues of concern. But every side has an achilles heel to exploit. It´s a matter of who can negate their weaknesses the most effectively and allow their strengths to shine in the big games. Like you say Biltong, this is certainly not a one horse race. And to be honest that´s how it should be. We have some exciting match-ups to come and for sure there´s going to be a few twists and big upsets on the cards. That´s what makes this format so exciting. Here´s to this being a showcase of rugby and may the best team win.

More worryingly for the AB was Richies reluctance to fetch last saturday.i rarely saw him make any attempts to steal the ball legally or illegal or was just that me not seeing it?

One shouldn´t underestimate the cumulative effect of that backrow working together as a unit allowing Richie to do his own thing Bullsbok. With those double injury blows to Thomson and Read, it disrupts your ability to work as a unit. Read in particular was a big loss. It seems that Richie still has some form to recover and Pocock outshone him as a fetcher. I think Vito was solid considering his last test he was shown to be naive on defence but he´s no Read.

Take Read´s absence, McCaw´s need for more rugby still and a subtle but important difference in how the ball can be retained or competed for compared with last year (it seems last year there was more leeway given to the attacking team) and therein lies the answer. But also the ABs showed at home that they can compete well in the breakdown. With Read out for the pool games, that won´t help with continuity so it´s a big loss. But more game time for Richie should bring around that dip in form. Still plenty of rugby to be played before the big games.

Interesting to see Farr-Jones and other Wallaby pundits claiming that Saturday was the best Wallaby performance in a decade. I remember the same plaudits being handed to NZ after their demolition of Australia prior to the 2007 cup.

Perhaps this time it is the young Ockers who have prematurely blown their load in public. Did finally getting a competitive win over the ABs and ending a decade of 3N hurt release a pressure value for the Wallabies? perhaps they will be unable to rekindle that flame for a finals clash.

That aside I thought there were enough areas of concern for the Aussies...if that was their best for a decade then Deans should be worried.

Firstly and most obviously they squandered a 20-3 half time lead and again relied on some individual brilliance to bail them out. Cooper might be an unpredictable attacking weapon but he clearly lacks the game management skills needed to shut down a game. His defense continues to be a massive concern and his attitude and niggle is likely to lead to problems for the Aussies when the pressure comes on. The world cup spot light tends to shine more brightly on off the ball antics if history is anything to go by.

Secondly, Australia had no answer for the patient forward driven phase play the ABs introduced early in the second half. I'm sure the rugby world watched with one eyebrow raised as the NZ repeated the same simple trick 40 times and walked away with two converted tries and a penalty.

Thirdly, whatever extra dynamism was brought to the breakdown by the back row mix, it hurt them at line out time where they seemed to lack options and were very lucky to get away with correcting their isues with some very wonky second half throws.

Finally, they lack a reliably accurate goal kicker. Who's ever won a RWC without one of those?

I think McCaw's reluctance to fetch was a result of the Aussie hunger. He picks his battles better than anyone and I think that the Wallabies were dominating most rucks in the first half and had too many people at rucks for him to affect them. He was more prevalent in the second half definitely.

I think NZ would have gone into the Cup with their feet on the ground regardless of results. It's the one tournament that they don't win consistently and that's sure to give them a bit of humility and all they need to do is look at history-in particular 03. Sure it was the best England team ever but not even they could put 50 on Aussie and SA away in a week.

Yes GG, but they did show mental nerve to see a 20 - 3 lead come back to 20 - 20 and still close out the game, albeit with brilliance by Genia to open the gap and his Reds team mate Ioane shadowing him and unselfishly giving it to Beale.

But I agree that no side has shown complete dominance and there are definite areas of weakness to attack. The pick and drive tactics were a positive for the ABs to take out of the game but Deans will also be working on something to correct that. The goalkicking for sure is a problem for Australia but the ability to find something special and unlock the defensive line in a tight contest is a big factor in their favour. For me Nonu has been the best defensive line breaker for the ABs, especially in broken play. You also need those types of plays on attack or a big hit on defence enforcing an error to lift your side when you need it most.

In the end the top SH sides have shown that on their day they´re capable of getting stuck in and getting enough ball to win. Tactics and frame of mind will prove the difference.

TheGreyGhost

True Aus had their massive lead lowered to next to nothing but they still held on. A lesser side would probably have rolled over.. but they kept focused and went back and scored a winning try.... they did this through being able to deal with the pressure.

NZ were always going to come back it was how Aus reacted which was impressive.

Also you say Aus do not have a accurate goal kicker.... well Carter's S15 accuracy rate was barely better than O'Connor & Coopers.

Here are the ave. of this years S15

Carter 72% (50/69)
O'Connor 71% (54/76)
Beale 71% (43/61)
Cooper 69% (56/81)

Surprisingly Giteau got 78% but was left at home. Kicking it relative to where you take your shots at goal though.... often the better the side the more likely your conversions will be closer to the posts & therefore easier.

Given that the Force ended up 12th compared to the Crusaders 3rd it would suggest that O'Connor's 71% is probably better than Carters given the circumstances.

Does that mean you're saying NZ can't win with someone as loose as Carter with the kicking tee?

Super rugby is a bad comparison.

There are no bonus point tries in rugby world cup knock out games.

The bonus point system leads to teams spurning kicks at goal for tries, which means the kicking stats get skewed.

72% wasn't a bad return though when you consider some of the conditions that those games were played in, and that the Crusaders didn't play at home all season...not to mention Carter's foot injury this season

If it comes down to kicking (which it probably will) theres only going to be one winner . Both Cooper and O connor are erratic for the Wobblies as they showed numerous times most notably vs England and against South Africa in Brisbane (O connor missed 4 ! ) .

It´s true that Carter is capable of kicking like he did in Auckland and taking all his kicks and then having an off day. But usually if he has an off day he stands out in attack or does something good to gloss over his inconsistency. But I think in terms of reliability M Steyn is way ahead of Carter or any of the Wallabies in terms of reliability and that has to be a big plus in their favour. Then again he provides very little in the way of attack but in the tight games that´s not really an issue.

Like the Speight´s ads, it´s a hard road finding the perfect first five. But for all-round skill I´ll take Carter. Hell, he even scored a drop goal this season. The good news is that Carter is in good touch. I´d sleep a lot better if Richie was in similar form...

I don't think anyone is saying Carter isn't a good kicker nor that he is not a better player overall then someone like Morne..

Its that saying O'Connor isn't a good kicker when he has been consistantly as accurate as Carter all season... all players have off days and O'Connor is just like everyone else.... so O'Connor missed 4 in a match once.... well Carter missed 4 against SA this year at home also.

Everyone has off days and once again... kicking is relative to where you take it but overall if you have enough pots at goal your accuracy rate should even out the odd bias.

It all makes sense that it's good to keep your feet on the ground and focused but as somebody else posted that would have happened anyhow.

The real issue facing the AB's is having lost a game they really wanted to win. That puts in their minds, when the pressure is on, that they could loose and not deliver. A team is in a much better place if it knows it has delivered in the tightest of situations as it can draw on that belief. This has been a real issue for the men in balck during the past WC's as they are not that often, being the best in the world, in a real tight match at the end when they need to really pull it out - normally the game is won with time to spare. England, Aus and SA tend to play many more games that are close in scoreline and tight at the end and therefore if they have been on a roll in those games they have the confidence of having faced that situation and prevailed which helps maintain their composure under pressure.

One of the most amazing things in that game to me was DC kicking the ball to the Aussies with only 90secs left on the clock. Being a welsh fan that is the kind of thing we have done for years and would have me screaming f****** idiot at the TV - it is not what you expect of DC or the AB's.

Pressure is real, especially in WCs, and how that is handled is the key to the AB winning this WC and so far it is not looking that great for them in that regard.

Yes but to be fair mate this isn´t a singular occurrence. O´Connor, Beale, Cooper and Giteau who is no longer in the side have been tried as kickers in recent times. All of those are capable of being good, reliable goal kickers. Carter is in a team with not many options (Weepu if he´s on the pitch and not a lot else). In a way the options available to the Wallabies are a double-edged sword. It´s good to be able to switch to someone else if the kicks aren´t going over but it doesn´t breed confidence in one particular goal kicker or place faith in one particular guy. JOC seems to be the starter but I get the feeling that if that first one doesn´t go over, there seems to be more added pressure on the person chosen to step up to the plate. If Carter has an off-day, he usually comes back stronger the next day because he´s the only real established goal kicker. He has no choice. But if you´re one of three kickers it´s difficult to get some continuity.

Interesting theory deadfred but NZ have shown plenty of times the ability to close out a game. The past few games against Australia have seen very few matches with more than a handful of points in it. NZ closed out Australia in Sydney last year for example and whilst they lost coming back from the dead in Hong Kong and Brisbane, they´ve pulled off a lot more wins against Australia. They also pulled off a rare win in JoBurg against the Bok last year and didn´t play well against England or Wales and still found a way to get there.

So they have plenty of mental strength I think. One shouldn´t underestimate the teams who have knocked the ABs out. They were special performances like that heroic defence in 2007 or the magical moments from Dominici in 99.

So pressure is real and in the home games the ABs showed that they are capable of dealing with that. In the away games they came up short. Like I said, their ability to bounce back from disappointments is a big plus for this team. That they have shown weakness is a confidence boost for the likes of SA and Australia but they have always gone into a match believing they can beat NZ so nothing much has changed there. But rather than seeing their two defeats as doom and gloom I think for once going in with their pride hurt a little will actually be a lift for this side. So you´ll forgive me if I have a little more confidence than you but as an outsider I appreciate your opinion. Pressure was real after the Hong Kong defeat in Auckland this year. The 3N is undoubtedly a bitter loss but in terms of the big prize it doesn´t really matter who wins the 3N if you don´t win the World Cup. So in that respect nothing has changed.

Let's face it. As soon as the RWC kicks off and we get to the opening round routs, nobody will even remember the 3N.

Hysteria will prevail until the knock out stage begins.

I don't really have anything to add here, but I just wanted to say how refreshing it is to read a great article followed by good, well-argued posts without any childish bickering and name-calling to ruin it. It makes a welcome change!

whatevers luckless_pedestrian... my da could beat up your da.

Shouldn't that read the wounded leaf or fern, Boks and Wallabies are kind of animals but the other is just a piece of vegetation I think

fa0019 wrote:whatevers luckless_pedestrian... my da could beat up your da.

Just tell your mum I'll see her later!

RubyGuby wrote:Shouldn't that read the wounded leaf or fern, Boks and Wallabies are kind of animals but the other is just a piece of vegetation I think

My title was edited. But in figurative terms you can´t have a wounded plant. That would mean vegans would be out of an argument if plants had feelings too or could feel pain.

Let´s have a compromise. Beware the ABs after their pride has been hurt. I preferred the original title but fair enough for removing oblique offence.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/notesandqueries/query/0,,-83446,00.html

Some scary replies there GG.

Fact: steak is delicious. The bloodier the better. Bacon and breakfast go hand in hand like rugby and beer (except when you´re playing at elite level). I respect anyone´s right to eat whatever they want, worship whoever they feel like, support whichever rugby team. But that won´t make me change my opinion on meat, staying in bed on Sunday mornings (or Saturdays or Fridays or any day for that matter) and supporting my ABs.

In a desperate attempt to try to return to my original post, I think these losses will make the ABs stronger for the very reason I gave: these ABs seem to come back very well from a fall. I know you don´t buy into the myth GG that you learn from your losses more than from your wins but do you think it would´ve been better to field an A squad in SA and play the same team in Oz and try to sweep the 3Ns or do you think it was a good idea to rest a few players and find out more about others?

I would expect any team to learn whether they win or lose, however when you lose it becomes a bit more important, especially now with a World Cup round the corner.

When you lose it’s generally because of something you did not do right, Wayne Barnes & injuries notwithstanding, some teams learn quite fast, I would put NZ in that category some not so fast, which is what bugs me about England!

There seems to be very little separating the teams anyway.

Which means the knock out games will likely be decided in a similar way to the 3N - by adjudication error.

Will make for a few flame wars, but I reckon we've had our bad luck.

As if New Zealand really needed any more motivation to win that elusive world cup, on their home ground, they've now lost 2 in a row.

someone think of the children.

They´ve lost 5 in a row. Sod the children. Think of me!!!

On the plus side...we haven't lost a RWC game at home yet!

Cringe. I've been in the UK too long.