Japan Gp Preview

If Sebastian Vettel scores a single point this weekend at Suzuka, he becomes a double world champion. Even if Vettel shunts on the first lap or decides not to turn up at all, unless Jenson Button wins, the German is champion.

And given that Vettel arrives in Japan fresh from another three straight wins that firmly ended his 'drought' between Valencia and Spa, and given that he has dominated at Suzuka for the past two years, you have to feel fairly confident that he will wrap things up this weekend.

So there's very little tension left over the championship, but many will be pleased that Suzuka will be the scene of the clincher.

For one thing, Vettel's recent record there – if he can continue such form in the longer term – could make the track synonymous with his era.

It also has a great heritage of crowning champions: Nelson Piquet, Alain Prost, Ayrton Senna, Michael Schumacher, Damon Hill and Mika Hakkinen all claimed titles at Suzuka, more than one in some cases.

And, most importantly, it is one of the finest tracks on the calendar – rivalling Spa with its fast corners, sweeping bends, and epic challenges; though like the Belgian venue, Suzuka has been tamed in recent years not through track alterations, but because modern Formula 1 cars are just so good that some of the once-fearsome corners are now easy-flat kinks.

Even so, this is a 'proper' F1 circuit that the best cars and drivers thrive on.

And there is no doubt whatsoever that Red Bull and Vettel have been the very best this season, and therefore no better place for them to put a seal on the title they have looked destined for since the outset.


Thrill and spill potential

When you go off the road at Suzuka, it tends to be in a big way – 2009's crash-strewn qualifying was perhaps the best example, with Toro Rosso's massive damage bill for the weekend underlining that Suzuka can bite.

It's one of the few tracks with a quick first corner, which means fewer desperate turn one outbraking moves on the opening lap and therefore a relatively low chance of a first-lap shunt. But conversely, when those shunts do happen, they tend to be high-speed and destructive.

Overtaking has long been a problem at Suzuka, although DRS and Pirelli tyres will no doubt have an impact on this.

And despite the traditional complaint that the chicane is the only passing place and it's impossible to get close enough to anyone there because the challenging Spoon and ultra-fast 130R precede it, when drivers really have to overtake, they find ways – hence the astounding 2005 race that saw Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen scorch through the field, with the latter winning from 17th on the grid.


Talking points

* Can Hamilton steady his season? – We haven't seen Lewis Hamilton on the podium since he won in Germany in July, and there have been plenty of mistakes and controversies since then. Expect a flurry of pre-race questions about his Singapore shunt with Felipe Massa, their post-race confrontation, and the (probably irrelevant but nevertheless interesting) Rob Smedley radio message revealed afterwards.

* The points battles that remain – Vettel and Red Bull are unbeatable, but there is still honour to fight for. Button, Mark Webber, Alonso and Hamilton are blanketed by just 17 points in the fight to end the season as second-best, while in the lucrative teams' fight, Renault must hope they regain form on a fast track or Force India might soon close down their 22-point cushion and snatch fifth. But if Force India stumble, Sauber and Toro Rosso are not far behind. And for Williams, a miracle is urgently required to do something about their miserable tally of five points (24 behind nearest rivals STR) and ninth in the standings.


Suzuka trends

* When it rains, it pours – You rarely get a light shower at Suzuka, and twice in recent years qualifying has had to be cancelled due to downpours or tornado warnings! Rain has also shuffled a lot of grids here over the years.

* Titles are won here – Ten world championships have been settled at Suzuka, and it will surely be 11 after this weekend.

* The best car and driver can run away with it – This circuit is a great test of man and machine, so when someone is in dominant form, they can stretch their legs here, as Vettel has for the past two seasons.


Winning pedigree

Current drivers who have won at Suzuka:

Michael Schumacher: Six wins (1995, '97, 2000, '01, '02, '04)
Sebastian Vettel: Two wins (2009, '10)
Rubens Barrichello: One win (2003)
Fernando Alonso: One win (2006)

Current teams who have won at Suzuka:

Ferrari: Seven wins (1987, 1997, 2000, '01, '02, '03, '04)
McLaren: Six wins (1988, '91, '93, '98, '99, 2005)
Renault: Four wins (as Benetton, 1989, 1990, '95, as Renault 2006)
Williams: Three wins (1992, '94, '96)
Red Bull: Two wins (2009, '10)


Memorable Suzuka moments

1987 - Suzuka's maiden grand prix sees a title won in a less-than-ideal way, as Nigel Mansell injures his back in a qualifying crash and Nelson Piquet collects the championship as a result. Gerhard Berger takes Ferrari’s first win in more than two years.

1988 – Ayrton Senna mounts a dramatic recovery from a terrible start to win the race and take the first of his three world championships.

1989 – Alain Prost defeats Senna in the title race, but only after they collide at the chicane. Senna recovers to win but is disqualified so Alessandro Nannini wins for Benetton.

1990 - Another collision between Senna and Prost gives this title to the Brazilian, who later admits his first-corner move was deliberate. Piquet leads a Benetton one-two made remarkable by the fact that team-mate Roberto Moreno was signed just days earlier after Nannini suffered horrific injuries in a helicopter crash.

1991 - Mansell crashes out, ending the last threat to Senna's 1991 title bid. The Brazilian relaxes and lets team-mate Berger win.

1993 - Senna wins a tricky race in changeable conditions, then punches debutant Eddie Irvine after the race – having been infuriated by the Irishman dicing with him while being lapped. Irvine still delivered a remarkable fifth place in his first race.

1994 - In torrential rain, Hill drives the race of his life to beat Schumacher by the slenderest of margins and keep his title hopes alive.

1996 - Hill dominates from start to finish to see off the challenge of team-mate Jacques Villeneuve and win his sole world championship.

1998 - A puncture for Schumacher and a win for Mika Hakkinen ensures the Finn takes his first title.

1999 - Schumacher's best efforts can't stop Hakkinen winning again and claiming another title, this time at Irvine's expense.

2000 - It finally comes right for Ferrari as Schumacher defeats Hakkinen in an enthralling race-long duel and starts his string of titles rolling.

2003 - Schumacher claims title number six in tense fashion after a very scruffy race to eighth, as Ferrari team-mate Rubens Barrichello wins.

2005 - Rain in qualifying shakes up the grid and the drivers go gloriously wild in the race. Alonso passes Schumacher with a seemingly impossible move around the outside of the 130R, and Kimi Raikkonen comes from 17th on the grid to win with an outside-line pass on Giancarlo Fisichella on the final lap.

2006 - An engine failure for Schumacher severely damages his chances of saying farewell to F1 (for a little while...) with another world championship, as rival Alonso collects the victory in what will be Suzuka's last F1 appearance for a couple of years as Fuji briefly takes the slot.


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source: http://www.itv.com/formula1/blogs/japanese-grand-prix-preview-1402/