Never mind 4. Can Fed avoid 5th?

Andy Murray may have done Federer a disservice by pushing him down to 4th but at least he stopped David Ferrer getting the extra 400 points. Ferrer is not all that far behind Fed and could, conceivably with a good Year-end championship performance, take the number four slot.
As as has been said, there aint much difference twixt 3 and 4 but Fed slipping out of the top four would have consequences at the Slams, although it did not do Andy M much harm at the AO earlier this year. Don't personally think Ferrer will overtake Fed as he may not fancy the London court. Any thoughts ?

He's OK for a fair while yet, probalby almost certainly up until the Aus Open - he's nearly 900 points ahead of Ferrer on ytd scores. It would be a hell of an achievement for Ferrer to gain 900 more points than Fed between now and the end of the season. Then in the first half of 2012 they are defending similar amounts of points, although differently distributed.

Certainly , the points distribution this year has been quite extraordinary. Has there been a year when the top four have won so many of the available points ? (stats experts please reply).
Even when Fed was dominating in the period 2004-06/07 you had a good few non top four guys getting some big points - Baggy, Gonzo etc. Outside the top four - and to a certain extent Ferrer at 5 - the others have hardly had a look in this year.

I am sure someone will check the stats for you sir fred, but it is a remarkable testament to Ferrer's great year that he is only 900 points behind Fed who has had a dismal year by his previously high standards but has still had a terrific showing at the slams.

Could Fed slip to 5th? I agree with barry, he's okay up to Australian Open unless we are going to see something truly remarkable from Ferrer and a really dreadful showing from Fed at WTF, though I guess Fed is actually defending 1,500 from WTF and 250 from Basel and something insignificant from Paris so it is not inconcievable. I seem to have argued myself around here

I think Fed will be desperate to hang on to the fourth ranking before AO so perhaps that will be a brilliant motivator.

If Fed lost badly at WTF that would be the issue but dont see it happening...plus Ferrer would need to probably make it past the round robin which I dont see happening either.

The key thing is how Fed does at AO and the then the US hardcourt season before the FO...and then the FO itself where he'll have 1200 points to defend...he could go into Wimbledon 5/6/7/8 seed and be one hell of a dangerous "floater"!

I actually think that Murray getting better could help Federer achieve more things. It makes it more balanced for the top 3 where the one who had Djoko on his draw was at a big disadvantage.

If Murray can go and beat Nadal and Djoko, then the points they will share might even up and that could make it easier for Federer to regain number one for a few weeks and even get him a chance to reach a slam final versus a tired opponent.

This year, Nadal had that chance but could not benfit from it cause Djoko was simply head and shoulders above Rafa.

Tenez wrote:I actually think that Murray getting better could help Federer achieve more things. It makes it more balanced for the top 3 where the one who had Djoko on his draw was at a big disadvantage.

If Murray can go and beat Nadal and Djoko, then the points they will share might even up and that could make it easier for Federer to regain number one for a few weeks and even get him a chance to reach a slam final versus a tired opponent.

This year, Nadal had that chance but could not benfit from it cause Djoko was simply head and shoulders above Rafa.

Please explain why, Murray and Fed swapping places has any effect on who they might play in a Top 4 semi-final?

Unless Roger suddenley starts deteriorating far more rapidly than now, then I really don't see it

Often Fererr doesn't even reach the QF's of the Slam's, the minimum hat Roger does

If Tsonga actually maintained form for longer than three events (or didn't do terrible once ever four events!!) then he would be a threat as he is probably as good as the current Roger on his day

However, tales of Roger's demise are as usual exaggerated - if a Slam was played tommorow I'd bet on a Fed / Murray final (like I nearly did in NY this year ) - I actually think that he's the player to beat at the O2

For Ferrer to eclipse Federer in the rankings, he would have to atleast get the final of Bercy (with Federer dropping out early) and then beating 1 of the top 4 in the YEC, well we all know how bad his record is against the top 4.

banbrotam wrote:

Tenez wrote:I actually think that Murray getting better could help Federer achieve more things. It makes it more balanced for the top 3 where the one who had Djoko on his draw was at a big disadvantage.

If Murray can go and beat Nadal and Djoko, then the points they will share might even up and that could make it easier for Federer to regain number one for a few weeks and even get him a chance to reach a slam final versus a tired opponent.

This year, Nadal had that chance but could not benfit from it cause Djoko was simply head and shoulders above Rafa.

Please explain why, Murray and Fed swapping places has any effect on who they might play in a Top 4 semi-final?

Don't think it does but it was a bit freaky this year that the draws always seemed to set up expected (on seedings) semi's of Djokovic v Federer and Nadal v Murray. Remember though that at the start of the year Federer was number 2 and Djokovic number 3 (Murray was actually number 5 until at least Monte Carlo). Therefore the draw has not always come out as 1 v 3 and 2 v 4.

It would actually have been interesting if the draws had worked out differently. Nadal has beaten Federer in all 3 meetings so far this year so like he has done against Murray you would expect him to win more often than not. Djokovic and Murray have only played 3 times so far this year. Novak blew Andy away in the AO ( he also did the same to Federer and Berdych there) and then won a three setter with a tie break in the third in Rome. At Cincy Djokovic was obviously suffering but Murray did what he needed to do until the retirement. Hoping to see more different match ups in Paris and O2 to see how the players really compare at present.

Just the winners for 2011....

ATP 250....

Brisbane - Soderling
Chennai - Wawrinka
Doha - Federer
Auckland - Ferrer
Sydney - Simon
Johannesburg - Anderson
Santiago - Robredo
Zagreb - Dodig
Costa Da Sauipe - Almagro
San Jose - Raonic
Buenos Aires - Almagro (2)
Marseille - Soderling (2)
Del Ray Beach - Del Potro
Monaco - Andujar
Houston - Sweeting
Munich - Davydenko
Belgrade - Djokovic
Estoril - Del Potro (2)
Cote d' Azur - Almagro (3)
Halle - Kohlschreiber
Queens - Murray
Eastbourne - Seppi
Den Bosch - Tursunov
Newport - Isner
Bastad - Soderling (3)
Stuttgart - Ferrero
Atlanta - Fish
Gstaad - Granollers
LA - Gulbis
Umag - Dolgopolov
Kitzbuhel - Haase
Winston-Salem - Isner (2)
Bucharest - F. Mayer
Metz - Tsonga
Bangkok - Murray (2)
Kuala Lumpur - Tipsarevic


ATP 500...

Rotterdam - Soderling (4)
Memphis - Roddick
Acapulco - Ferrer (2)
Dubai - Djokovic (2)
Barcelona - Nadal
Hamburg - Simon (2)
Washington - Stepanek
Beijing - Berdych
Tokyo - Murray (3)

ATP 1000 ....

Indian Wells - Djokovic(3)
Miami - Djokovic (4)
Monte Carlo - Nadal (2)
Madrid - Djokovic (5)
Rome - Djokovic (6)
Montreal - Djokovic (7)
Cincinatti - Murray (4)
Shanghai - Murray (5)


Slams - Djokovic(8), Nadal (3), Djokovic (9), Djokovic (10)

lydian wrote:he could go into Wimbledon 5/6/7/8 seed and be one hell of a dangerous "floater"!

Just wondering, where would Federer be ranked at Wimbledon if he is down to 6 or 7 given the complicated calculation based on performance on grass that they use?

bradman99.94 wrote:

lydian wrote:he could go into Wimbledon 5/6/7/8 seed and be one hell of a dangerous "floater"!

Just wondering, where would Federer be ranked at Wimbledon if he is down to 6 or 7 given the complicated calculation based on performance on grass that they use?

hasn't done well there in the last two years, and as that's the only grass points they take count of he certainly wouldn't gain any places. Interestingly though, if say Tsonga had a great run in the first half of next year, and ended up just behind Fed going into Wimbledon, he could well be seeded above him due to his good grass court record this year (can't think anyone else has done well enough to get close...)