Tsonga the new World number 5.....well

Just a question of time really. Having accumulated so many points despite being injured most of the beginning of 2011, he has very little to defend in Australia while Ferrer has a semi. I expect Tsonga to overtake Ferrer in 3 weeks and though a long stretch could in theory overtake Murray but that most probably won't happen.

The erratic Frenchman is getting less erratic. Beware.

Tsonga's improvement is certainly welcome, but I don't see him overhauling Murray any time soon.

I agree Tenez, Tsonga is going to be nr. 5 for quite a while. He's done extremely well since Queens last year, and will certainly gain additional points in the first half of 2012.

Overtaking Murray will be tough though because Murray can earn a lot of points too in Indian Wells/Miami, and after that the clay season starts where Tsonga probably won't do so well...

prostaff85 wrote:
Overtaking Murray will be tough though because Murray can earn a lot of points too in Indian Wells/Miami, and after that the clay season starts where Tsonga probably won't do so well...

Yes good point about IW and Miami but I feel that might be the period Murray chooses to rest before the intense TMS/slams period. he did not play much either, if at all, in the same period the previous year. He lost very easily to nobodies in 2011 there and never looked concerned cause I suspect he did not want to spend energies there. But then when it mattered a few weeks later he went straight to the final stages of TMS and slam finals.

Top players, especially the "physical" ones are predictibly cyclical. Let's see if we can see a pattern again.

I agree that Tsonga will be No. 5 soon, but not No. 4 at the expense of Murray.

I thought I'd read somewhere that Murray was looking to avoid repetition of the post Aus Open pattern of 2010 and 2011 where he was crud for a few months by his high standards.

Murray did put his heart and soul into three tournaments after the US Open last year and he would have pressed on but for injury, so he has got time and energy to expend on 'smaller' tournaments away from the slams. On that basis I hazard a guess that given a choice he'd rather have success at IW/Miami than to end his season grinding it out at the likes of Bangkok, Tokyo, and Shanghai.

As ever with Murray, if (when?) he gets that first slam everything will change. I hope he does not have too long to wait.

Tenez wrote: Top players, especially the "physical" ones are predictibly cyclical. Let's see if we can see a pattern again.

Ferrer is also a very 'physical player', but does not show any 'cyclical' patterns.

laverfan wrote:

Tenez wrote: Top players, especially the "physical" ones are predictibly cyclical. Let's see if we can see a pattern again.

Ferrer is also a very 'physical player', but does not show any 'cyclical' patterns.

True though we pay less attention to him and he doesn;t go as far as the others in the tournaments. So he is probably not as challenged. He might not need that resting time as much.

Good article and thoughtful comments. It too think it's only a matter of time for Tsonga and say 'about time' as well

However, I'm not confident about him breaking into the Top 4, before Fed retires or (more likely?) Nadal's injuries catch up with him and affect his clay court season - simply because they see Tsonga as dangerous but beatable. His record against them is pretty hopeless

But, it would be safe to say, using the Murray head to head as an example, that the stats flatter the Top 4 at some point in most matches he's being on Top - maybe he can improve that as he gets more mature

Problem is, I'd argue that Murray and Nole will get even better as they mature

Top 3 of these three in a couple of years time?

Tenez wrote:

laverfan wrote:

Tenez wrote: Top players, especially the "physical" ones are predictibly cyclical. Let's see if we can see a pattern again.

Ferrer is also a very 'physical player', but does not show any 'cyclical' patterns.

True though we pay less attention to him and he doesn;t go as far as the others in the tournaments. So he is probably not as challenged. He might not need that resting time as much.

But in order to be ranked above Tsonga, he must be going further than the Frenchman or playing more tournaments - either way he's spending more time on court. Actually, Fererer an excellent barometer as to how the others are playing and the quality of the mens game over the last 4 years - given that apart from a blip two years ago, he's barely being outside the Top 6

Some do overplay the 'physicality' issue. All the best players, tend to be the fittest

Barring long-term injuries to the leading quartet, I reckon Tsonga won't break into that top four yet. Been watching his year-end final against Fed at the O2 again. Like the round-robin match between the two earlier , JWT could - and perhaps should - have won.
But in the vital games and on the key points, he blew his chances. Yes, I know he did wonderfully well at Wimbledon to come from two sets down v Fed, but I JUST DON'T THINK HE HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A TOP FOUR PLAYER.
Personally, I'd actually like to see it happen, as he plays a terrific brand of tennis and seems a genuinely nice guy.

I think Tsonga will be a top 4 player sooner or later but I doubt he will be a consistent one before Rafa and Roger drop out.

I believe he will win a slam too...maybe sooner than more expected ones.

Unless he's playing somone outside the Top 4, I don't see it

Tsonga, simply hasn't got the mentality to beat any of them over five sets, unless they are having 'a mental walkabout' (i.e. Fed last year) - let alone two of them, which would be more than likely

Could do late in his career and I can't see anyone else other than the Top 4, winning them over the next three years. Berdy, possibly as well

Tsonga is also 27 in March....ok not ancient but he's a big guy to keep lunging around the court as he does and he's susceptible to injury, partic. his back. I dont see him having the consisntecy to break into the top 4 as it currently is...but clearly with time Nadal and Federer may decline as they have been at the top for so long. His problems is others behind him...a rejuvenated Delpo, Raonic (who I think will be a top 5 player eventually although not likely this year) and Dolgo...but again Raonic and Dolgo have injury/health issues...as does Delpo too! Infact can any of them stay injury free!

Agree Berdy is a good call, and we need to see where Soderling is too. I think Ferrer will start to drop down the rankings after the clay season and finish outside top10 this year.

I think Soderling will have gone. At least in terms of Slams. His game relies on a very good level of fitness - more than most, because it compensates for his still suspect temperament

Berdy, I can't make my mind up. For me although his play isn't one-dimensional, his mind is. However, he seems to have the hex on Murray and to a degree Fed and that's far more than any other of the outsiders!!

Berdy and Soderling will never win a slam.

Consider this as a fact!

Tend to agree. If the Top 4 are solid against Berdy then they should always win. With Tsonga it's different

Tenez wrote:Berdy and Soderling will never win a slam.

Consider this as a fact!

You can't say it's fact unless you have a crystal ball.
Although...Berdych and Soderling...yeah, OK it's a fact.

Tsonga certainly playing lot better and at the prime of his career, unless injury strikes I do see him win a GS sooner or later. Soderling injury crisis is a big disappointment, he was just hitting the form of life and this happens.

Tsonga has the game to take out anyone on his day.

His destruction of The Nadull in AUS a few years ago was one of the most devastating displays of attacking tennis I have ever seen. He has the tools to be a slam champion but lack of consistency (mainly I believe due to recurrent injuries) has been his achilles heel.

He is definitely the one to avoid in the quarters.

Remember this thread? How wrong was I? I expected Tsonga to overtake Ferrer 2 months ago but Ferrer held very solidly to his points earnt the previosu season but also helped by Tsonga not delivering as expected.

In MC this should change (though I can't be wrong twice for sure ) as Ferrer has 600 points to defend and Tsonga none.

Not that it woudl make a big diference in seeding but just glad to see JW go up the ranking. However until he starts to beat Nadal consistently, I do not see him going any further up in the ranking.

Everybody knows he would beat Ferrer in slams he's just one of those players who has too many off days. Lost to Nalbandian when looked in control then gifted the last 2 games v Nadal.

Tsonga losing 2nd round in MC previous should start adding points now.

Due to differences in the weekly schedule, the points for Monte Carlo will already be dropped before the tournament (instead of after it).
Therefore Nadal will lose 1000 points and Ferrer 600 which they can only gain back one week later.

So Tsonga will be #5 on the 16 April rankings, and the gap between Nadal and Federer will shrink further (similarly Nadal's 500 points from Barcelona will be dropped before he actually has the chance to defend them).

prostaff85 wrote:Due to differences in the weekly schedule, the points for Monte Carlo will already be dropped before the tournament (instead of after it).
Therefore Nadal will lose 1000 points and Ferrer 600 which they can only gain back one week later.

Very interesting...Has Federer got points to defend? I will check....Otherwise he gets to number 2...for a week at least!

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Everybody knows he would beat Ferrer in slams he's just one of those players who has too many off days. Lost to Nalbandian when looked in control then gifted the last 2 games v Nadal.

Tsonga losing 2nd round in MC previous should start adding points now.

I thought he did not play MC last year (Tsonga).

Tenez wrote:Very interesting...Has Federer got points to defend? I will check....Otherwise he gets to number 2...for a week at least!

Federer has 180 QF points to defend at MC which drop off on 16 Apr 2012, as Prostaff85 says, similar to Nadal.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Roger-Federer.aspx?t=rb

Tenez wrote: thought he did not play MC last year (Tsonga).

Correct. Tsonga has no points to defend at MC.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Jo-Wilfried-Tsonga.aspx?t=rb

Tenez wrote:

prostaff85 wrote:Due to differences in the weekly schedule, the points for Monte Carlo will already be dropped before the tournament (instead of after it).
Therefore Nadal will lose 1000 points and Ferrer 600 which they can only gain back one week later.

Very interesting...Has Federer got points to defend? I will check....Otherwise he gets to number 2...for a week at least!

Federer will lose 180 points from Monte Carlo 2011, and then Nadal still has 280 Davis Cup points currently under 'non-countable' which may come in (not really sure how this works). So Federer certainly won't get to number #2 on 16 April...

We can also calculate how many points Nadal needs to earn in Monte Carlo to keep his #2 position on 23 April!
Nadal: 9,935 - 1,000 (MC) - 500 (Barcelona) + 280 (DC) = 8,715
Federer: 9,035 - 180 (MC) = 8,855

So Nadal needs to reach at least the QF in Monte Carlo to stay #2 on 23 April.
And if those Davis Cup points for some reason would not be counted, then he would need to reach at least the final in MC!

Again very interesting.

Nadal also has Rome and Madrid Final points to defend before RG (600+600).

Federer has Rome R16 and Madrid SF (360+90).

Tsonga draws first blood in the Davis Cup, wins 3-1 over Harrison.

Those Davis Cup points were enough to get Tsonga to #5 in the rankings already today!

Yes he is #5. But I saw how he played yesterday. Staying 4m behind the baseline, trying to do a Murray or Nadal chasing all balls and retrieving. This is not his play at all and his best chance is only when he steps in and attack going for shots.

Thats what Isner did yesterday, played to his strengths. Isner played brilliant, even in tough positions. Showed great character to fend of all those break points and also the crowd. Back to top-10 again. Hopefully he will overtake Fish by the end of this week and hence the new American no.1