Return of the AP - Round 14 Preview

Well it has been a month since the last round of matches as, at club level anyway, we put our Premiership hats back on. A quick reminder of the table:

1) Quins 47pts
2) Sarries 44pts
3) Saints 36pts
4) Tigers 36pts
5) LI 33pts
6) Chiefs 31pts
7) Sharks 30pts
8) Glaws 29pts
9) Warriors 25pts
10) Barf 24pts
11) Wasps 21pts
12) Falcons 12pts


Friday, 10 February 2012

Sale v Worcester, 20:00

Neither team are likely to be dramatically affected by international call-ups. Both teams have big forwards but you have to feel that Sale have far more penetration in the backs.

Sale to win by +7


Saturday, 11 February 2012
Bath v Newcastle, 14:15
Bath have taken the opportunity over the last couple of weeks to give their first team a run out and gain some form against Saints/chiefs reserves. Two thumping wins will fill them with confidence and it is hard to see Falcons being a threat.

Bath with a TBP


Exeter v Leicester, 18:00
The season started badly for Tigers knocking on the kick-off and conceding a try within 90secs. That defeat sparked a dismal run that saw a squad decimated by WC call-ups and injuries really struggle. They will be looking for revenge but Sandy Lane is a tough place to go. My head says a narrow win for Exeter, by heart says:

Leicester by 6


Gloucester v Northampton, 14:15
Injuries and call-ups see Saints badly hit in the second row and back row. Ashton may not be selected again, but the absence of Foden and Dickson will also cause problems. Gloucester have been inconsistent and will be missing the bulk of Jim Hamilton. With Wood and Harden looking to get under the big Saints props, Gloucester should be able to secure enough good ball to enable whichever backs are fit (and not held back by Lancaster) to showcase their talents.

Gloucester by +7



Harlequins v London Irish, 14:00

Quins have not started 2012 well and have lost the last 3 matches, the first of which would have been heartbreaking as Connacht knocked them out of the HC. Just as winning can become a habit, so can losing. Quins may not be as badly hit by internationalk call-ups as they may have expected but even so may struggle against LI who are starting to see their sick-list shrink a touch.

assuming Evans has a good kicking day, Quins to win by 5.


Sunday, 12 February 2012
Wasps v Saracens, 13:15

Wasps are in complete dissary, on and off the pitch. Injuries are mounting and only Falcons abject performances in teh League will give them any comfort. If they are ever to beat the reigning champions meeting them on a day when they will be missing around 10 first choice players is the best chance.I just cannot see it though.

Sarries to grind out a 4pt win.

Well I was pretty rubbish at predicting the internationals at the weekend (1 out of 3), so I will see if I can keep that mind blowing form going into this weeks AP fixtures

Sale Vs Worcester – home win
Bath Vs Newcastle – home win TBP
Exeter Vs Leicester – home win
Gloucester Vs Northampton – home win
Harlequins Vs London Irish – home win
Wasps Vs Saracens – away win

Back to a proper competition at last!

I pretty much agree with LT. The only one I disagree with is the extent of the Bath victory. Their recent results have flattered them slightly as they've put out a far stronger side in the LV than their opponents. But maybe this is my natural bias talking! I do hope they have a good win with no injuries so that they don't have an excuse next week when we thump them!!

Of course you think that HKC! I don't think you'll beat Saints at home, unless you have the master distrubutor Mike Tindall at 10!

As always it's impossible to predict what will happen with the mighty Exiles, but given fitness and availability, we could see a backline of...

15. Tom Homer
14. Topsy Ojo
13. Delon Armitage
12. Shontayne Hape
11. Sailosi Tagicakibau
10. Dan Bowden
9. Darren Allinson

... which if the pack can gain parity, has the potential to do some serious damage ball in hand.

Be great to see Bowden back

Bathite wrote:Of course you think that HKC! I don't think you'll beat Saints at home, unless you have the master distrubutor Mike Tindall at 10!

There's no need, we'll have our great academy product Freddie Burns back

Flakey Burns? That Saxons reject? Chin up fella, hope it doesn't rain and he gets his shorts wet

Bathite wrote:Flakey Burns? That Saxons reject? Chin up fella, hope it doesn't rain and he gets his shorts wet

I thought he was meant to be the Messiah with all the talk he was re-signing for Bath, or is he just a naughty boy? Probably the latter when he makes it 8 out 9 next week...

Not yet, he needs more first team experience, won't get any at Bath, not good enough yet

I really really hope we can win, if we lose at home to Exiles our losing streak looks nasty and that's the kind of slump we desperately need to get out of. Probably missing Brown, JTH (there is no point in him being on the England bench if our centres are Farrell and Barritt, give him back!) and worst of all Robshaw. Luckily Lowe is on his way back and big Mo and Wallace make a strong back row without our Captain. Exiles backs look good but this isn't a shabby back line either:

15- Williams
14- Monye
13- Lowe
12- Casson
11- Stegmann
10- Evans
9- Care

With Hopper, Clegg and Dickson on the bench still looking strong. Part of me wants Evans at 15 and Clegg to start to get him a chance to run a backline without the pressure of kicking and then to bring Clegg off if it isn't working.

HongKongCherry wrote:Back to a proper competition at last!

I pretty much agree with LT. The only one I disagree with is the extent of the Bath victory. Their recent results have flattered them slightly as they've put out a far stronger side in the LV than their opponents. But maybe this is my natural bias talking! I do hope they have a good win with no injuries so that they don't have an excuse next week when we thump them!!

Sexy's back at The Rec HKC, you can only beat what's put in front of you and Bath have done that with plenty of fizz. Bath have suffered two defeats in 2012, a one score away at Saracens after a very disciplined performance and a last minute defeat at Montpelier from a shocking reffing decision.

I don't see anything other than a TBP win at the weekend and that will be 4 on the bounce and undefeated at home for 2012, can't see Glaws changing that stat on the 18th so get 'em in while you can.

How would sir like his ass handed back to him?

Can't wait to see the AP start up again, but am going to hold off on my picks until I see team selection - just too many players missing with the 6Ns and A competition for me to get my little brain around

PJ, Bath over Newcastle by more than a score is the one fixture I'll stick my neck out on already!

PJ, you are quite correct, you can only beat what is in front of you and you have built some momentum.

As for handing one's ass, as you have failed in 7 of the last 8 attempts I'll keep my bet on Glaws.

LondonTiger I agree with all of your predictions.

Fingers crossed for Saracens. Nils Mordt - starting fly half.

Real test of strength in depth.

beshocked wrote:LondonTiger I agree with all of your predictions.

Fingers crossed for Saracens. Nils Mordt - starting fly half.

Real test of strength in depth.

What's happened to Goode?

HongKongCherry wrote:

beshocked wrote:LondonTiger I agree with all of your predictions.

Fingers crossed for Saracens. Nils Mordt - starting fly half.

Real test of strength in depth.

What's happened to Goode?

Not sure he'll move back to fly half as temporary cover. I don't know. He'll be used more as a first receiver though.

HKC is right now that Goode has been released by England he will be free to play and so could step in at 10 with Wyles at 15. Sadly that means Flood is called up and if you believe the noises coming out of the Sarries camp... sorry I mean England team then he is going to be sat on the bench whilst half fit leaving us with only Staunton unless we can wrestle Ford back off of the England under 20s.

I'd predict a team of;

Ayerza, Chuter, White
Slater, Skivington
Mafi, Salvi, Waldrom
Harrison, Staunton
Allen, Smith
Tuilagi, Agulla
Murphy

Subs: Stankovitch, Hawkins, Mullipola, Newby, Woods, Grindal, Forsyth, Morris.

Sam that's a close to full strength backline! Certainly back three and first choice inside centre anyway.

I would be pleased if Goode is 10 and Wyles is 15. I hope Flood stays with England for his rehabilitation.

Not sure what Saracens team to predict as injury statuses of Borthwick,Brits and Joubert are unknown. If they are available our pack will still be strong hopefully. According to the Saracens website they are fully fit but who knows.

Something like below hopefully:

1.Smit
2.Brits
3.Nieto
4.Borthwick
5.Smith
6.Melck
7.Saull
8.Joubert

9.De Kock
10.Goode
11.Short
12.Powell
13.Tomkins
14.Tagicakibau
15.Wyles

16.Auterac
17.Du Plessis
18.George
19.Kruis
20.Wray
21.Spencer
22.Mordt
23.Taylor

formerly known as Sam wrote: if you believe the noises coming out of the Sarries camp... sorry I mean England team

Now, now, it's been the Leicester camp for years so don't begrudge Sarries a turn!!

What's happened to 36, you've not listed him?? You'd better not injure him!

Whilst we're on the predictions front, I'd expect the following Glaws side to face Saints:
1. Wood
2. Dawiduik
3. Harden
4. James
5. Brown
6. Buxton
7. Qera
8. Narraway (if fit)/Cox
9. Lawson
10. Burns
11. Voyce
12. EFS
13. Tindall
14. Sinbad
15. May

16. Cortese 17. Murphy 18. Knight 19. Savage 20. Cox/Evans 21. Lewis 22. Molenaar 23. Trinder (if fit)/ Phillips (if fit!)/ B.Burns/Clarke

We've got no fly half cover with Taylor still injured and Mills with the U20s, so no big hits on Freddie please Saints!

What's happened to 36, you've not listed him?? You'd better not injure him!

Good point I'd forgotten we'd be getting him back from the Saxons. He could well be playing 10, huzzah, the outside backs might actually see the ball and the centres might actually run a move!

Sam that's a close to full strength backline! Certainly back three and first choice inside centre anyway.

I would be pleased if Goode is 10 and Wyles is 15. I hope Flood stays with England for his rehabilitation

It is and it's a worry that I don't rate half of them in their current form. Flood staying with England will do nothing to help his rehab. He needs game time and that should mean games against Exeter and Sarries or at least one of the two. It's all well and good saying he won't walk back into the team but unless he starts against Italy it'll mean he goes into the big games coming up with next to no game time.

Sam I think if Youngs is going to be England's scrum half then Flood has to start vs Italy.

Youngs has been hopeless without Flood at fly half. He doesn't seem to be able to work with other fly halves.

I would personally either pick Youngs and Flood for Italy, if not then pick either of the Dicksons and Hodgson.

In the 2nd scenario Flood could play for Leicester vs Exeter and possibly Saracens.

Youngs is very fortunate that Danny Care has some issues right now, as had he been available I suspect young Ben may have been in for a spell of benchwarming for England.

Going to be interesting to see the AP teams this week.

I would personally either pick Youngs and Flood for Italy, if not then pick either of the Dicksons and Hodgson

To be honest I wasn't impressed by Lee Dickson off the bench against Scotland he just seemed to slow the England possession down even more. He had the added bonus of Parling and Morgan as additional forward ball carries but didn't really make use of them. Youngs at least tried to create a tempo for England to play to. Give Hodgson a weapon or two in his backs to really aim for and I think he'll get on well with Youngs, especially if there's some more forward ball carrying options. With England kicking away so much ball game plan and having 40% possession most of which was slow ball there's not a lot of point in having an attacking 9 or 10.

Ozzy3213 wrote:Youngs is very fortunate that Danny Care has some issues right now, as had he been available I suspect young Ben may have been in for a spell of benchwarming for England.

Going to be interesting to see the AP teams this week.

If Care had avoided those extra pints he would have started last week. Youngs has been ok for us since regaining fitness, but he has not developed at all since the appearnaces v Australia in 2010. He needs to learn how to play when the pack are struggling - something Care has more experience with.

I think you are spot on LondonTiger.

Youngs often gets an armchair ride behind a dominant Tigers pack. He seems to get very frustrated very quickly when on the back foot. He is still young and hopefully will develop this area of his game.

That is his weakness Ozzy, he manages well when the referee is onside but games like the one in Belfast where the referee is making no effort to control the breakdown see Youngs lose his temper (espeically as Tigers forwards are getting worse at controlling the ruck). Maybe time to bring Ellis in to do some one to one coaching (Youngs is currently mentored by Bracken but not full time and Ellis is coaching at South Leicester RFC) as Ellis would show him quite a lot of tricks for 'moving' offending players and give him some tips on upping his physicality as Ellis was almost an additional openside in scrappy games.

Youngs reaction at Ulster was embarrassing, like a petulant child. As you said, some advice on how to retrieve the ball would work well for him and Ellis seems like an obvious choice, good suggestion

Ellis- appreciated a lot more now we don't have him I'd say!

Wonder if you'll say the same about Staunton! pah

I meant for England mostly

I was joking!

Staunton has never played for my club or country so I couldn't care less about him! I don't support Tigers

I always thought Ellis was an under valued asset. He helped Tigers tick. The competitive challenge would have been good for Youngs as well as it would have afforded him more rest time and forced him to improve to keep up with the more experienced Ellis. As is the more experienced option (Grindal) is no where close to the same quality as Youngs and the second choice is the player Youngs kept out of the academy team, Sam Harrison (who is developing into an excellent player). The imported competition Micky Young has struggled for form, fitness and is now banned and behind Sam Harrison in the pecking order.

Not only did Tigers lose an international class scrum half in Ellis but the development of the next generation has been effected by his early retirement as well.

Wonder if you'll say the same about Staunton! pah.

I'd rather Ford or Lynn (academy 10) played instead as both have much better vision and play good attacking rugby. Sam Harrison and Ben Youngs both played 10 before being converted to 9 by the Tigers academy and both can kick well from the tee. All of whom will be available to Tigers next year after Staunton and Billy leave and all of whom I'd happily start over Staunton (I've not included Flood because he is clearly superior in every facet of play).

Its kind of worrying to me that Youngs is increasingly starting to look and play like post knee surgery Ellis.

Tough on Harry with those injuries, along with Hipkiss he could have been the experienced heart of a much better England backline at the last world cup.

I dont know if hes the best example for good behaviour though, didnt he break one of the other England 9's jaw? He was also involved in quite a few off the field shenanigans too.

I dont know if hes the best example for good behaviour though, didnt he break one of the other England 9's jaw? He was also involved in quite a few off the field shenanigans too..

Don't know, I met him in a nightclub once and he was actually very polite considering me and my friend were very drunk. Seemed a nice guy. His shenanigans on the pitch are well known (clocking Yachvilli and getting sin binned for it vs Biaritz). Youngs could do with that level of aggression (just avoiding the sin bin) at the moment Youngs is trying to be a bit to cute and trying to stay on side with the ref but that doesn't always work.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

I dont know if hes the best example for good behaviour though, didnt he break one of the other England 9's jaw? He was also involved in quite a few off the field shenanigans too..

Don't know, I met him in a nightclub once and he was actually very polite considering me and my friend were very drunk. Seemed a nice guy. His shenanigans on the pitch are well known (clocking Yachvilli and getting sin binned for it vs Biaritz). Youngs could do with that level of aggression (just avoiding the sin bin) at the moment Youngs is trying to be a bit to cute and trying to stay on side with the ref but that doesn't always work.

Personally, I feel the best scrum halves are the ones that are real niggley little b******s! Ellis is sorely missed from the game.

HongKongCherry wrote:PJ, you are quite correct, you can only beat what is in front of you and you have built some momentum.

As for handing one's ass, as you have failed in 7 of the last 8 attempts I'll keep my bet on Glaws.

Yeah, but now's the time HKC, Bath have even learnt to play rugby off a scrum that's going backwards. It'll be 2 from 9 in a couple of weeks.

#mojo-rising

Any games likely to be called off due to the weather?

Personally, I feel the best scrum halves are the ones that are real niggley little b******s! Ellis is sorely missed from the game

Amen to that.

Any games likely to be called off due to the weather?.

If there's a good pizza place near Wasps...

Surely Wasps will want to play Saracens now when they have 19 players missing and will only give them a small humping as opposed to after the 6 Nations when Saracens will have players back and will give them a right royal shafting!

Good point Ozzy. Sarries really missing as many as 19? Wasps might have a chance then. Borthwick vs Wentzel could certainly be interesting at the lineouts.

Wow Ozzy3213 is it really that many?

Ok here goes - Stevens,Brown,Burger,Strettle,Farrell,Hodgson,Wigglesworth,Hougaard,Botha,Barritt,Spencer,Saunders,Vunipola. 13 definitely out.

The unknowns - Borthwick,Gill,Joubert,Brits and De Kock.

Sam the Saracens pack should still be relatively strong.

I did say that Wasps *might* have a chance. They did beat Sarries at the start of the season so I'd given them a 40/60 chance against your lot.

Sam every man and his dog beats Saracens in the London double header. I wouldn't take that result too seriously.

I'll give my verdict when I see the two teams. If the 5 players I said are unknowns are back, Sarries will win.

Maybe Tigers should relocate to London then....

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Maybe Tigers should relocate to London then....

Why would you want to do that? You play at Twickenham more than most anyway! Well your players do.

I heard Borthwick and Joubert are both out.

Don't know if that is true or not, but it's what I've heard.

Ozzy3213 I fear you will be correct. I'll be pleased if Brits is back though. He's a legend.

I think our game with Quins will be very interesting. We have a lot of injuries in the back row, I think we only actually have 2 specialist back rowers fit, so will see either Evans or Garvey at 6. (I suspect Garvey as he played there last week.) Richard Thorpe will be at 7 or 8 which leaves one of Siggery (a blindside), Roche (a lock who can play blindside) or Low (another lock who can play blindside) at either 7 or 8 depending on where Thorpe plays.

Should mean we are good at the lineout with all them locks on show, but breakdown may be a bit of an issue.

If we get decent enough ball then I think our backs will cut them to shreds!