OWGR - Week #7

That was a really exciting final round at Riviera!
Congratulations in the end to Bill Haas and to Jbe Kruger for their fine wins this week!

Bill Haas is turning out to be quite a player, and this is now reflected in his ranking as he jumps all the way to #12 in the world! Jbe, the small big hitter from South Africa, is enjoying a not so small leap somewhere close to #110.
Other significant movers include Phil who is returning to the top 10 (#9) after two excellent weeks and Keegan Bradley who seems to confirm that he is unlikely to be just a one year wonder, as he enters now into the top 20 (#19).

Tiger drops to #20, Sergio after that exhillarating final round (great to see him back at his best!) is moving up to #16 and... of course, everything is now in place for next week's WGC Match Play. But more about that in the next post...

The OWGR table after week #7 should look as follows:

1 Luke Donald
2 Rory McIlroy
3 Lee Westwood
4 Martin Kaymer
5 Steve Stricker
6 Webb Simpson
7 Jason Day
8 Adam Scott
9 Phil Mickelson
10 Dustin Johnson
---------------------------
11 Charl Schwartzel
12 Bill Haas
13 Graeme McDowell
14 Matt Kuchar
15 Nick Watney
16 Sergio Garcia
17 K.J. Choi
18 Brandt Snedeker
19 Keegan Bradley
20 Tiger Woods
21 Bubba Watson
22 Hunter Mahan
23 Justin Rose
24 Paul Casey
25 Ian Poulter
26 Thomas Bjorn
27 Bo Van Pelt
28 Simon Dyson
29 Alvaro Quiros
30 Louis Oosthuizen
31 David Toms
32 Robert Karlsson
33 Kim Kyung-Tae
34 Jason Dufner
35 Peter Hanson
36 Anders Hansen
37 Fredrik Jacobson
38 Rickie Fowler
39 Aaron Baddeley
40 Martin Laird
41 John Senden
42 Mark Wilson
43 Francesco Molinari
44 Bae Sang-moon
45 Paul Lawrie
46 Zach Johnson
47 Ben Crane
48 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano
49 Geoff Ogilvy
50 Retief Goosen
-------------------------------
51 Kyle Stanley
52 Miguel A Jimenez
53 Darren Clarke
54 Jonathan Byrd
55 Y.E. Yang
56 Ryo Ishikawa
57 Gary Woodland
58 Jim Furyk
59 Robert Rock
60 Rafael Cabrera Bello
61 Matteo Manassero
62 Kevin Na
63 Greg Chalmers
64 Nicolas Colsaerts
65 Ryan Moore
66 George Coetzee
67 Joost Luiten
68 Ernie Els
69 Spencer Levin
70 Robert Allenby
71 Charles Howell-III
72 Johnson Wagner
73 Vijay Singh
74 Rory Sabbatini
75 Alexander Noren
76 Toru Taniguchi
77 Sean O'Hair
78 Chez Reavie
79 Hiroyuki Fujita
80 Thomas Aiken
81 Lucas Glover
82 Jaco Van Zyl
83 Edoardo Molinari
84 Ryan Palmer
85 Pablo Larrazabal
86 Harrison Frazar
87 Padraig Harrington
88 Carl Pettersson
89 Jeff Overton
90 Gregory Havret
91 David Lynn
92 Robert Garrigus
93 Branden Grace
94 Jamie Donaldson
95 Michael Hoey
96 Bryce Molder
97 Yuta Ikeda
98 Marcus Fraser
99 D.A. Points
100 Stephen Gallacher
-----------------------------
101 Brendan Jones
102 Koumei Oda
103 Chris Kirk
...

... and here they are, I really hope I didn't make any silly mistakes considering that I'm almost falling asleep here on the keyboard...

The 1st round matches for next week's WGC Match Play are (I leave it to somebody else to figure out the proper bracket, etc.):

1 Luke Donald vs Ernie Els
2 Rory McIlroy vs George Coetzee
3 Lee Westwood vs Nicolas Colsaerts
4 Martin Kaymer vs Greg Chalmers
5 Steve Stricker vs Kevin Na
6 Webb Simpson vs Matteo Manassero
7 Jason Day vs Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
8 Adam Scott vs Robert Rock
9 Dustin Johnson vs Jim Furyk
10 Charl Schwartzel vs Gary Woodland
11 Bill Haas vs Ryo Ishikawa
12 Graeme McDowell vs Y.E. Yang
13 Matt Kuchar vs Jonathan Byrd
14 Nick Watney vs Darren Clarke
15 Sergio Garcia vs Miguel Jimenez
16 K.J. Choi vs Kyle Stanley
17 Brandt Snedeker vs Retief Goosen
18 Keegan Bradley vs Geoff Ogilvy
19 Tiger Woods vs Gonzalo Fdez-C.
20 Bubba Watson vs Ben Crane
21 Hunter Mahan vs Zach Johnson
22 Justin Rose vs Paul Lawrie
23 Ian Poulter vs Bae Sang-Moon
24 Thomas Bjorn vs Francesco Molinari
25 Bo Van Pelt vs Mark Wilson
26 Simon Dyson vs John Senden
27 Alvaro Quiros vs Martin Laird
28 Louis Oosthuizen vs Aaron Baddeley
29 David Toms vs Rickie Fowler
30 Robert Karlsson vs Fredrik Jacobson
31 Kim Kyung-Tae vs Anders Hansen
32 Jason Dufner vs Peter Hanson

Some super match-ups, Donald vs Els is a repeat of a couple of years ago when Lukey w/d (thought he'd reinjured his wrist) within a couple of holes of the finish line.

Love fest between Sergio and Miguel-Angel.

I like the Snedeker vs Goosen tie as much as any, tho' Quiros vs Laird will probably be the battle of the bombers.

Very dodgy for lw1 . . . .

6 All American matches, 6 All European matches, Can't wait for Wednesday!

Yep, I don't think there is any mistake, those should be the matches...

Tiger vs Gonzo... great one, cheering for Gonzo, of course!

And what about the battle of the Sweeds: Karlsson vs Jacobson

Letr's hope Crane and Bubba Watson don't do another of their stupid music video cameos. . . . .

kwini,

I must disagree on this one. I thought the music video was very funny. I saw the making of the video and the guys put in a lot of effort and they must have raised some serious money for charity.

Scottie, Didn't mean the actual video, was referring to their impromptu effort at the 16th in Phoenix. Hope the video did make money; didn't much care for it myself, except Bubba's dungarees made me smile.

The PGA Tour's much-hyped young things Fowler and Ishikawa had yet another poor outing - much more of this, pd, and they'll be sliding down the rankings very quickly. Much like Matteo of course - his match vs Webb Simpson should be interesting.

With all the excitement at Riviera and the Match Play draw in mind, forgot to mention there has been also a tournament last week on the Sunshine tour, with T. Aiken the only really notable in that field (he finished T2)...

Anyway, the Match Play will be worth a whooping 76 pts. to the winner, same like last year (unless someone else will W/D before the start of the tournament). Each of the 64 players will earn a minimum of just over 2 owgr points (plus a cheque of $45k)...

Thomas Aiken knows how to get around. In Mayakoba this week.

Some quick projections...

For the first time in a while Luke could lose his #1 spot!
To either Rory or Lee if one of them wins the Match Play...

For Luke to remain at #1:

- in case Rory wins... Luke needs to reach Rd 3
- in case Lee wins... Luke needs to reach QF

...but nobody from below these three, incl. Kaymer, could reach the #3 spot!

Thanks pd, always enjoy your OWGR posts.

G-mac at 13 is a reminder to all those who would rather the OWGR should be based on someones perception of the current best players, that a logical points based system is far superior.

PS how did ernie get in at 68?

Field was determined on last weeks rankings. It would be unfair if a player cracked the top 64, while playing in New Delhi and was expected to travel to Tucson and play a match.

According to Gross Points earned in 2012, the Luke Donald quadrant is has the 'hottest' players.

Quadrant -- Gross Pts 2012
Donald - - - 455.35
McIlroy - - - 281.53
W-wood - - 330.74
Kaymer- - - 290.13

McLaren wrote:

PS how did ernie get in at 68?

Field was determined last week, seedings this week, right pd?

Yep, that's true...

Fortunes of those on the Cadillac bubble:
Up:
owgr # 40: Laird: Reckon he's clinched a top 50 place.
43: Molinari: Franny too!
56: Ishikawa
61: Matteo
68: Els
Ryo, Matteo and Ernie are still fighting!

Fortunes down:
46: Zach Johnson
47: Crane
50: Goosen (still as chance on the European money list
62: Na
66: Coetzee

It looks as if Rock and Rafa C-B are secure based upon their European money list status, and there's still a chance that Crane will qualify via FedEx top ten. Kyle Stanley definitely will.

Laird definitely in the "Cadillac" now!
Ernie's position, and Matteo's, precarious as they no longer have the "European money list to fall back on.
Not sure if Ryo is playing the Honda but would assume he is, but he's just not been playing like a Top 50 player.
Looks like Goosen is almost safe, but still has four bullets to dodge.

Current owgr state (incl. results to date) around the #50 threshold looks like this:
...
44 Paul Lawrie
45 Francesco Molinari
46 Zach Johnson
47 Ben Crane
48 Kyle Stanley
49 Geoff Ogilvy
50 Miguel Jimenez
-----------------------------------
51 Gonzalo Fdez-C.
52 Retief Goosen
53 Ryo Ishikawa
54 Y.E. Yang
55 Jonathan Byrd
56 Darren Clarke
57 Robert Rock
58 Gary Woodland
59 Jim Furyk
60 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
61 Greg Chalmers
62 Matteo Manassero
63 Kevin Na
64 Ernie Els
...

Didn't check it, what's YE Yang's status these days relative to Doral, Masters, etc...?

Yang will be fine for the Masters, his PGA win still gives him exemption. Not sure about Doral though.

Yang is in Doral, fancy him more this coming week though . . . . .

Honda Classic early commitment list:

http://www.thehondaclassic.com/pages/player-commitments#

Ishikawa is not listed. I think his chances to play in Cadillac are dashed.

He played Transitions and Bay Hill last year. (MC is both). Cannot find a preliminary field for either tournament via their website.

How is Yang qualified for Cadillac?

GPB,
Not sure what Yang's specific eligibility is, but pgatour.com show he's qualified. Among the eligibility criteria are top two in last year's moneylists for Asia and Japan Tours - was he one of them perhaps?

kwinigolfer wrote:GPB,
Not sure what Yang's specific eligibility is, but pgatour.com show he's qualified. Among the eligibility criteria are top two in last year's moneylists for Asia and Japan Tours - was he one of them perhaps?

No, he wasn't... But he was top 30 FedEx cup last year (infact he was the 30th)...

Those who would qualify for Doral via the top two on 'other' tours in 2011 are:

Juvic Pagunsan (PHI)
Tetsuji Hiratsuka (JPN)
Sang-Moon BAE (KOR)
Tadahiro Takayama (JPN)
Garth Mulroy (RSA)
Hennie Otto (RSA)
Greg Chalmers (AUS)
Marcus Fraser (AUS)

I have peeking at the Honda field next week. Only two top 10 players, Rory and Lee.


Some back of the envelope calculation

It looks like 52 pts to the winner (possibly 54).

If Rory or Lee do not win this weekend, they have to finish 2nd or better at Honda to overtake "the Donald" for OWGR #1 going into Cadillac.

Match Play winner 76 pts?
In that case, the placings will likely receive:
2nd: 45.6
3rd: 30.4
4th: 22.8
5th: 14.8
9th: 8.9

Meaningful points now - Bae already guaranteed a big jump, Mark Wilson and Laird too. Players lining up to zip past Casey, and Poulter and Woods unless they perform well next week.

Am thinking Goosen is now safe for the Cadillac, via the ET top ten.

kwinigolfer wrote:Am thinking Goosen is now safe for the Cadillac, via the ET top ten.

I am not too sure about that. Doesn't it depend on Laird's status on EuroT.

Goosen wins ~33K Euro to move to 305K Euro

Westwood, Hansen are going to pass Goosen for sure with ~200K Euro this week guaranteed. Goosen's down to 10th.

If Laird counts in the Euro Money list, he will pass Goosen if he beats Westwood tomorrow. 4th place pays ~365K

Top of head

Mahan is going to pass Woods for sure.

Hansen can also pass him with a 3rd place finish

If Wilson, Bae and Laird can finish 2nd or better, then they can pass Woods.

GPB,
I felt Goosen would overtake Marcel Siem and that Marcel would be the one to miss out.

Hunter ahead of Tiger, Lee ahead of Rory (again), DJ ahead of a few others, etc., etc... there are many little changes taking place here and there, if you're interested in the intermediate situation as of today, here it is:

1 Luke Donald
2 Lee Westwood
3 Rory McIlroy
4 Martin Kaymer
5 Steve Stricker
6 Webb Simpson
7 Dustin Johnson
8 Adam Scott
9 Jason Day
10 Phil Mickelson
------------------------------------
11 Charl Schwartzel
12 Bill Haas
13 Matt Kuchar
14 Graeme McDowell
15 Nick Watney
16 Sergio Garcia
17 Brandt Snedeker
18 K.J. Choi
19 Keegan Bradley
20 Hunter Mahan
21 Tiger Woods
22 Bubba Watson
23 Justin Rose
24 Paul Casey
25 Peter Hanson
26 Ian Poulter
27 Bo Van Pelt
28 Thomas Bjorn
29 Louis Oosthuizen
30 Simon Dyson
31 Alvaro Quiros
32 David Toms
33 Robert Karlsson
34 Martin Laird
35 Mark Wilson
36 Kim Kyung-Tae
37 Anders Hansen
38 John Senden
39 Bae Sang-Moon
40 Jason Dufner
41 Fredrik Jacobson
42 Rickie Fowler
43 Aaron Baddeley
44 Paul Lawrie
45 Francesco Molinari
46 Zach Johnson
47 Ben Crane
48 Kyle Stanley
49 Geoff Ogilvy
50 Miguel Jimenez
-----------------------------------
51 Gonzalo Fdez-C.
52 Retief Goosen
53 Ryo Ishikawa
54 Y.E. Yang
55 Jonathan Byrd
56 Darren Clarke
57 Robert Rock
58 Gary Woodland
59 Jim Furyk
60 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
61 Greg Chalmers
62 Matteo Manassero
63 Kevin Na
64 Ernie Els
...

24 points for Owen when he wins tomorrow, pd?

Much more Fowler futility and he'll be out of the top fifty, well deserved given his recent feeble form.

Yep, Mayakoba @ 24 and MatchPlay @76 pts for sure...

Hunter moves another notch ahead of Bradley and the quiet man, Mark Wilson pops up just behind Poults...for the time being...

princedracula wrote:Hunter moves another notch ahead of Bradley and the quiet man, Mark Wilson pops up just behind Poults...for the time being...

...and those remain the only changes going into the semifinals.
Nothing's sure, of course, but a change at the very top is well on the cards now for tomorrow night...

And just to cover all the possibilities:

- if Wilson wins it tomorrow, he goes to #14
- if Mahan wins, he'll go to #9

With all due respect to these two and to Luke, here I'm hoping for a change at the top tomorrow night!

The situation with the top 10 in the R2D and who will get a last minute pass to Doral is becoming now a little bit clearer (or is it?). There it is (Rory vs Lee match will only affect things at the very top):

1 MCILROY Rory 
2 GRACE Branden
3 WESTWOOD Lee 
4 LAWRIE Paul 
5 ROCK Robert 
6 HANSON Peter
7 CABRERA-BELLO Rafael 
8 KRUGER Jbe 
9 GOOSEN Retief
10 OOSTHUIZEN Louis 
---------------------------------------
11 SIEM Marcel 
12 ELS Ernie
13 COLSAERTS Nicolas 
14 BJÖRN Thomas
15 COETZEE George
...

So, poor Marcel is out, which is a pitty as King Louis is qualified anyway...
The interesting thing though is that the difference between them is only €1,232 and that's calculated at the current EUR/USD=1.3448 rate that I got from yahoo.com. A rate of 1.3687 or higher would actually swing it in favour of Marcel!
Since he's German, I suggest that a quick phone call to Angela Merkel trying to pursuade her to bailout Greece (and Ireland, please!) may well do the trick for him (and for us!)...

As for Ernie, there's nothing even Angela Merkel can do for him in that regard. It's all now down to him if he can pull off a highly unexpected win next week at Honda...

The timing for eligibility confirmation is:
R2D Top Ten: Feb 26th.
OWGR Top Fifty, Stage 1: Feb 27th.

FedEx Pts Top Ten: March 4th: Of those not already qualified, it seems that Ben Crane is the only vulnerable golfer currently in the top ten and he's in next week's "Honda" field.

OWGR Top Fifty Stage 2: March 5th

PD,

How many points will Lee or Rory need to earn at Honda to surpass Luke for the #1 spot going into Cadillac if neither wins today?

I think these numbers are pretty close.

MatchPlay LW RM
2nd Place 21 pts 28 pts
3rd Place 36 43
4th Place 44 50

GPB, I'm in the airport just checking results before flight...

C'mon ROOOOORRRRYYYY!!!

I'll have a look at that tonight from the hotel...

In the mean time...
Gooooo ROOOOORY!!!

I think Hunter Mahan moves into the top 10 with the win.

Spots 6-11 are going to be really close with less 0.25 pts of separating #6 from #11. and none of them are playing Honda.

#12 Schwartzel is not far behind and he is playing this week in Honda. #14 GMac is also playing. so it can get really muddled up.

NBC says #9 for Mahan.
As that's what princedracula suggested a few days ago, I've a feeling nine's the number.
Cadillac the next big price.

kwinigolfer wrote:NBC says #9 for Mahan.
As that's what princedracula suggested a few days ago, I've a feeling nine's the number.
Cadillac the next big price.

OK, #9 I didn't do the math, #6 - #11 is really close. and none are playing Honda.

I think Rory gets to #1 with a solo 2nd at Honda.
I think Lee gets to #1 with a win at Honda.

It will be very close who edges who if the Westwood-McIlroy exacta happens. Really close!

Would somebody please tell those two chaps in Cancun to finish that silly play-off as I'm desperate to go to bed!!

I am surprised how far Angel Cabrera (winner - 2007 US Open, 2009 Masters) has fallen. I see him at 165.

Other notables far down in rankings:

Chris DiMarco 309
Stephen Ames 329
Shigeki Maruyam 498
Shaun Micheel 525
Boo Weekley 588
Michael Campbell 761

Jason Day in the top ten is akin to Rick Santorum not going away. I must have been sleeping for months when he was winning.