From here on it gets tough for Djokovic.....

Lots of points to defend. Boatloads.

Im pretty sure he'll be #1 come the USO but it would be interesting to see if he can handle uncertainty and pressure now - always easier to chase than be chased.

It starts with IW/Miami.

Well, Djoko himself said he never expected to match his first part of last year this year. His defeat in Dubai may actually help him, as it will dampen down expectation. He won't have a long unbeaten run to defend.
I suppose he could reel off IW, Miami plus two big claycourt 1,000s like he did last year but it would be a big ask, especially as Fed and Murray seem to be playing better thian this stage last year.
Should Nole go out early or earlyish at any stage he could always play Monte Carlo although he might want to keep his powder dry for the French which is the only GS he can gain points from this year.
I expect him to do well from now on in, but not as well as last year. Should Rafa also do not so well (and remember he still had an amazing run to numerous finals this time last year) then the top of the rankings could take on a very interesting look.

Yep, 'twill be interesting indeed !

Novak rose to Number One in just about the most convincing manner possible with one defeat after another of the former Top Cat, but now has the tough challenge of holding on to his coveted spot. He has already dropped some points in Dubai of course, having just surrendered the title won there in 2011

Rafa's first spell at the summit lasted less than a full year (46 weeks to be precise) when interrupted by Federer, although he did of course then regain top position for another year or so (56 weeks) until then losing it to Djoker last summer. I can't imagine Rafa would wish to end his career with a total of just two years at the top, so I see regaining Number One as this year's strategic priority for Uncle Toni, and a perfectly feasible one at that.

Pete's record total of 286 weeks looks pretty safe to me, with Fed having the best - albeit perhaps still remote - chance of surpassing it. But it's interesting to note that Pete needed a total of eleven separate 'reigns' as Number One to accumulate that total, whereas Federer managed his 285 weeks in just two separate reigns. Guess that could be viewed in two ways : Pete either lacked the consistency to keep hold of top spot for long spells, OR Pete was always sufficiently tough and motivated to regain it time after time ....... A combination of both perhaps.

I do believe that Fed's record of consecutive (ie as opposed to total) weeks of 237 remains hugely impressive - not least when you consider that another great, in the shape of Jimmy Connors, is the closest to him but quite some way behind at 160 ..........

Yes, Djoko is not only holding back Rafa's GS rush but also making it virtually impossible for him to get anywhere near that 285-week mark. Of course there could come a time when Rafa will be needed to stop Djoko notching up some remarkable stats.

By the way, Murray's got nothing to defend at IW or Miami

I don't think it gets tough on Djokovic at all. Yes, there may be an attempt by media to pile pressure on him, but that's not how Nole operates.

He's got his goals for this year, and they don't revolve around defending but winning.

Well the loss would not do much harm to Murray, he already achieved in the tournament what others have failed in this year so far, thats to beat the no.1 player.

Murray will be a real threat in every tournament from here on, he might not win the tournament but he has more than enough to cause several upsets, he gonna eat a lot of points from the top 3.

Del Potro is another serious contender to eat a lot of points, I am pretty sure he consume truck load of points from top 2, I wont be surprised to see Federer regaining his coveted position by the end of Wimbledon or the start of USO and Murray entering into top 3.

Very interesting year ahead, it will be top 5 soon.

noleisthebest wrote:
He's got his goals for this year, and they don't revolve around defending but winning.

I agree with this.

However the number 1 spot is extremely important and we are entering the period where the ranking can seriously change.

Henman Bill wrote:By the way, Murray's got nothing to defend at IW or Miami

Federer has two SFs at IW/Miami (720 points) to defend. Murray can catch him by winning one of IW and/or Miami.

Disagree with OP, it actually got tough for Djokovic at the start of the AO. He had more points at stake there than anywhere else. Novak will most likely not win as much at the start of the season as he did last year. I think he will win one of the next 2 masters and at least one masters on the clay this year. The gap will shrink between the top 2 and the rest of the top 4. Lets remember for Nadal he has a great deal of points to defend. He basically reached the final of every tournament he entered till wimbeldon. So I don't see how his closest competitor will be able to get enough points to close the gap, he will have to do what Novak did last year and win everything he enters in. That is an unlikely situation for any of the top 4 players.

The sooner del P gets into the top eight - and he's only a handful of points behind a fading Fish - the better it will be for him and the top players.
Del Po wont have to face the big boys before the quarters at the earliest. Not sure if he's gonna get into the top four this year. He's already lost three times to Fed, without getting a set. He really needs to make an impression at IW and Miami but may need a favourable draw or one of the big boys going out early, which aint been happening much lately.
Wouldn't bet much against anyone but the top four making the semis at IW.

I think Novak is going to struggle - the grinding finals that he and Rafa have got locked into are going to take their toll - last year he was won AO easily, and dismissed Rafa pretty quickly at Madrid, Rome and W - only getting into a scrap at IW and M.

He has to find that kind of tennis again to hold off the master grinder long term - I am not sure he can continue to beat Rafa at that game.

Delpo is looking good - he took Fed v close at Dubai and I hope we will see him begin to really improve and kick on from here - it would be great to see a really competitive top 5 or 6.

I think Djoko is really going to play better on those slower courts. But they will favour Delpo too. It woudl be good to have Delpo on an other section than Federer cause I think Federer can handle him better than the other 3.

I agree with TP, people assume Djokovic will keep beating Nadal but as she says Rafa is the 'master' grinder and will find a way to break Djokovic down, I have no doubt of that. I also think Djokovic's own body is not strong enough to keep grinding the same way himself, he doesnt have the inherent musculature of Nadal to waive off injury in the same way (joint-protective), and I believe he puts his body under relatively more stress than Nadal for their body types/condition, especially those excrutiating wide/split leg retrieves from the corners. Thats a groin injury waiting to happen as he gets older and the grind of his new level of play and retrieval ability takes hold.
Nadal has been playing at this huge level for a good 5-6 years now, Djokovic only more recently - and we'll see what the added mental pressure of being chased by the pack does to him too.

Djoko will play better on slower courts (the guy is brought up on clay) but that for me will only compound the physical stress he'll be under this year. We saw after USO 11 what effect the physical stress had on him - effectively ruled out the rest of his year. He's going to need to eat, sleep and breathe in that egg chamber 24/7 this year one feels...

Fed can handle Delpo well...but to be honest I think the others can too. Yes he got a good start at DC last year vs Rafa, but the others now tend to claw him back after his great starts during the matches...as Nole also did at RG11.

I agree with Lydian to the extent that I believe it's all about whether Djoko can retain his fitness and his strength. If he can I don't think Nadal has answers against him, if Djoko's fitness drops by a small amount then Nadal is through him again (or others before Nadal) and, I suspect, Nadal goes back to No. 1 subject only to whether Murray can improve sufficiently to challenge Nadal.

I am not sure that pure mental pressure troubles Djoko much - if he is confident in his fitness I think he can handle the pressure - he knows he doesn't have to win every match and every tournament. However, if tiredness or injury starts to creep into the back of his mind and to become a worry for him then I would agree that he's very likely to struggle.

I would like to think that Djoko can fend Nadal off for another year in 2012 - extraordinarily impressive though Nadal is, I don't enjoy watching him or his style of play triumphing.

barrystar wrote:I agree with Lydian to the extent that I believe it's all about whether Djoko can retain his fitness and his strength. If he can I don't think Nadal has answers against him, if Djoko's fitness drops by a small amount then Nadal is through him again (or others before Nadal) and, I suspect, goes back to No. 1 subject only to whether Murray can improve sufficiently to challenge Nadal.

mmmhhh..Djoko's level would have to drop quite a bit. Over their last 7 encounters, I can think of 2 matches, inclusing the last one at the AO where Djoko was well under par...Nadal in tip top form...yet Djoko won.

And I do think a few players will challenge Nadal more now as well. The question really is can Nadal be slam fit for the whole TMS season before the FO? I am not sure about that either.

lydian wrote:I agree with TP, people assume Djokovic will keep beating Nadal but as she says Rafa is the 'master' grinder and will find a way to break Djokovic down, I have no doubt of that. I also think Djokovic's own body is not strong enough to keep grinding the same way himself, he doesnt have the inherent musculature of Nadal to waive off injury in the same way (joint-protective), and I believe he puts his body under relatively more stress than Nadal for their body types/condition, especially those excrutiating wide/split leg retrieves from the corners. Thats a groin injury waiting to happen as he gets older and the grind of his new level of play and retrieval ability takes hold.
Nadal has been playing at this huge level for a good 5-6 years now, Djokovic only more recently - and we'll see what the added mental pressure of being chased by the pack does to him too.

Djoko will play better on slower courts (the guy is brought up on clay) but that for me will only compound the physical stress he'll be under this year. We saw after USO 11 what effect the physical stress had on him - effectively ruled out the rest of his year. He's going to need to eat, sleep and breathe in that egg chamber 24/7 this year one feels...

Fed can handle Delpo well...but to be honest I think the others can too. Yes he got a good start at DC last year vs Rafa, but the others now tend to claw him back after his great starts during the matches...as Nole also did at RG11.

This is not any no-basis-random-assumption, its a prediction ( with probability of success and of course failure ) based on reasoning. And it existed even before when Nadal was winning most of their duels. Djo too ( which matters more than what you or me think ) knew about it when he openly said in his post-match interview in 2006 that Nadal is not unbeatable on clay. Djo beats Nadal mainly because now he can match-up (or even get better) to nadal's biggest strengths i.e. power, speed of legs, amazing stamina, huge lung capacity and ability to play the low risk brutal iron man slug-fest game. He now beats Nadal in Nadal's own game. His 7-0 recent record against him says volumes. And its not just the wins, its more to do with the manner of the wins. Djo didn't eke out those 7 wins, he looked completely in control ( bar maybe Miami 2011 ).


Your points are sounding like what some people said about Nadal that his body won't be able to take the punishment of his 'grinding' game. But I still see Nadal can play it pretty well even after 7 years. Perhaps Djo too can, who knows.

barrystar wrote:
...................................................................................................................................
- extraordinarily impressive though Nadal is, I don't enjoy watching him or his style of play triumphing.

This comment struck a chord with me !

I have no trouble at all giving Rafa the huge credit and respect his talents and achievements deserve, and there's no doubt that he has done much to bring a whole new breed of fans to the sport, such that he can justly claim responsibility (albeit jointly with a number of other current players ) for pushing the global level of interest to what might well be (?) an all-time-high. Although I do often wonder how many of this 'new breed' might be generally regarded as traditional tennis fans - if you accept that there is such a thing !

I personally don't enjoy the very physical style of play that has brought Rafa so much success, and in some respects - only some, given just how dramatically the game has changed over the years - Rafa's style on court reminds me of Jimmy Connors. In those grandstand Connors/Borg encounters it was always the elegance, the calm and controlled efficiency of Borg that appealed to me much more than the brute force of Connors. But then few players could bring such fevered passion to a night-time New York crowd than Connors at his best and, just like every sport, tennis needs a variety of characters and styles if it is to continue to thrive .........

From 2003 to now, I felt Fed's only challenge was Nadal on clay. In that respect I enjoyed their matches on clay and wish there had been more of it...even if it had made teh H2H worse for Fed.

I always felt that Federer was not far off from beating Nadal on clay. Many of their encounters were extremely close and they represented the most interesting matches of that period.

Their matches on grass was simply an extension of that clay encounters but I felt that Federer had too much to lose there to make it fair....especially since they slowed SW19 down to ridiculous proportions.

Tenez wrote:

barrystar wrote:I agree with Lydian to the extent that I believe it's all about whether Djoko can retain his fitness and his strength. If he can I don't think Nadal has answers against him, if Djoko's fitness drops by a small amount then Nadal is through him again (or others before Nadal) and, I suspect, goes back to No. 1 subject only to whether Murray can improve sufficiently to challenge Nadal.

mmmhhh..Djoko's level would have to drop quite a bit. Over their last 7 encounters, I can think of 2 matches, inclusing the last one at the AO where Djoko was well under par...Nadal in tip top form...yet Djoko won.

And I do think a few players will challenge Nadal more now as well. The question really is can Nadal be slam fit for the whole TMS season before the FO? I am not sure about that either.

You have pointed out that Nadal is a different player later on in the season when the slams are over, I agree; and the same question about his ability to find top form hovers over him each time March comes by. However, his career pattern suggests that he is likely to be on top form for the next 3-4 months - only in 2009 did he peter out in June, and that was after a pretty impressive TMS season on the back of his AO win. I see no reason to doubt Nadal's ability to step up to the plate fitness-wise this year.

I also expect Djoko to be sensible enough to ensure that he is in decent form when it really matters - which may well not include IW and Miami, but I think it's legitimate to say that his main frailty is likely to be a loss of physical form rather than succumbing to pressure or being out-played if in top shape.

Lags and B'star. Agree on the Rafa stuff. Incredible athlete, awesome competitor - yet I nearly always want him to lose ! Tenez - arguably, Fed actually put up his best FO match v Rafa in last year's final. He should have won the first set and fought back to take it to four.
Did he feel mentally more relaxed as this was the first time they'd met at the French since Rog had secured the title there? Djoko, I think, will have to go some to match Rafa's all-out game over several years. Could we see Nole playing even more attacking knowing he cannot keep up the slugfest type of matches indefinitely ?

Tenez - I agree that Federer has for many years been Rafa's most serious, and most consistent, challenger on clay - up until Djoker's stellar performances in 2011 of course (although even then, it was Fed who was there, once again, to take on Rafa at the RG Final....).

Federer's record on clay is too often - and quite wrongly - dismissed purely because of Rafa's tremendous achievements.

I still remember Catalan Power (on the old 606), as part of his never-ending quest to denigrate Federer's own achievements on the red stuff, referring to him as "a clay muppet" and suggesting that he should retire

I calmly pointed out to CP that since Federer's win/loss career record on clay is second (admittedly by some distance !!) only to that of Rafa when measured against all other active players on tour, then perhaps all other players below Fed should also retire. At which point it was CP, in front of all forum members, who looked the true muppet ........ In fact IIRC it actually brought an apology/retraction - a rare thing indeed for the likes of the usually blinkered CP .....!!

duplicated - technical issues !!

duplicated post

laverfan wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:By the way, Murray's got nothing to defend at IW or Miami

Federer has two SFs at IW/Miami (720 points) to defend. Murray can catch him by winning one of IW and/or Miami.

I don't think you meant it as such but should clarify that Murray could win one of those tournaments and still remain 4.
Federer (8710) has extended his lead over Murray (7450) to a healthy 1260 giving him a ~500 points advantage over Murray if we deduct now the points to drop off in March. Murray can take the lead at IW only if we wins it and Federer does not reach the final or he reaches the final and Federer loses very early.

The other thing I note in the rankings is the big gap from 4 to 5, Murray on 7450 is a whopping 60% above no 5 Ferrer (4665).
***STAT OF THE DAY ALERT***In % terms that's about twice as much as any other such gap anywhere in the rankings.

sirfredperry wrote:The sooner del P gets into the top eight - and he's only a handful of points behind a fading Fish - the better it will be for him and the top players.
Del Po wont have to face the big boys before the quarters at the earliest. Not sure if he's gonna get into the top four this year. He's already lost three times to Fed, without getting a set. He really needs to make an impression at IW and Miami but may need a favourable draw or one of the big boys going out early, which aint been happening much lately.
Wouldn't bet much against anyone but the top four making the semis at IW.

Today's ranking shows that positions 8-10 are quite close together.

7 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 3,860
8 Fish, Mardy (USA) 2,875
9 Del Potro, Juan Martin (ARG) 2,840
10 Tipsarevic, Janko (SRB) 2,710
11 Isner, John (USA) 2,120

Del Potro was a semifinalist at Indian Wells last year so he's more likely to fall to 10 in the short term than rise to 8. However I expect him to rise to 8 at some point over the coming months. Potentially, I could see him at about 5 actually.

H'bill. I see del Potty as the ideal number five as he is surely the best of the rest as well as having the best chance to break into the top four. Still don't think he's back to his best. No sets against Fed in three matches this season hardly smacks of a real threat to the top guys.
Liked your amusing take on the forgotten art of volleying, by the way.

If you look at Del Boy's points it's a short-term downer because he defends 360 at IW but after that he's got a low tally at Miami and nothing at MC or Rome and his slam results are poor. If he stays fit I expect him to get comfortably into the top 8 by RG and to consolidate his position in the top 8 from there on - which would be good for him, the top 4, and the rest of the top 8.

I agree that on any sort of form he should be No. 5, but I'd also say that thus far he is a decent notch down from the rest of the top 4. He needs an improvement from now on like the one he showed during 2009 if he's to challenge them by the end of the year.

I'd really like the story of 2012 to involve a substantial improvement from both Murray and Del Boy.

sfp : there's always the possibility that DelPo may never get "back to his best"

I certainly don't wish that upon him, he has huge talent and time is of course still very much on his side

But nothing is guaranteed in tennis. Those who speak of the so-called golden generation invariably include Delpo in their favoured group of 'bright young things' which is fine (to a degree), but at the same time they can quite often be dismissive of players like Andy Roddick.

But Roddick was only 21, I think, when he too won the USO and then went to claim the Number One spot, the latter being something which JMDP has yet to match. Roddick was then on top of the world (if only for a few short months) and many thought his USO triumph could well be the first of many Slams. History turned out differently. But Delpo still has some way to go if he is to match Roddick's titles tally, his Masters wins (none so far for Delpo) and indeed his Slam Final appearances.

I'm ready for the customary ah but things are tougher now but you can only play whoever's there on the other side of the net .......

Well, quite a lot gets written about del Po as it's one of the most interesting topics. Everyone has to remember that this guy is the only one outside the top three to have won a GS for SEVEN YEARS.
His injury at the beginning of 2010 was most unfortunate and has created a seemingly immoveable top four, with little or no challenge to their superiority.
I think everyone would like del P to at least be in a position to have a go at the big boys, if for nothing more than a change and a debate.
Well, at present, he's some way short of the top guys, as his no-sets-won-in-three-matches record against Fed this season indicates.
But with good play, and a little luck, he could be back up there this season. As for me, I'm still taking the present top four to occupy the first four places once again by the end of 2012 - although I'm not sure in which order.

Delpo is playing as well as ever imo. He is now running an in form Federer close which was not the case in 2009.....bar that FO semi.

I am much more impressed byf Delpo now than in 2009! He is right in the mix with the top 4 and only form of the day will affect the result when he is going to face them!

We'd all like to see him kick on I think, he plays an interesting game which has awesome power. I thought it was fun the other day watching him and Federer; I feel that Fed sometimes decides to play him at his own game simply because it's a challenge, rather than chopping him up with short slices and angles. The result was some enormous hitting.

The player he carries the most threat to is Nadal, only because of the match up with the high backhand and his chances to pressure the groundstrokes with sheer power (which he does to all of them, but which I think plays best against Nadal).

bogbrush wrote:We'd all like to see him kick on I think

Not me! He plays such an ugly game. Nothing against him personally I'm sure he's perfectly sweet. I just don't want to watch him...

bogbrush wrote:The player he carries the most threat to is Nadal, only because of the match up with the high backhand and his chances to pressure the groundstrokes with sheer power (which he does to all of them, but which I think plays best against Nadal).

That's very true!

hawkeye wrote:

bogbrush wrote:We'd all like to see him kick on I think

Not me! He plays such an ugly game. Nothing against him personally I'm sure he's perfectly sweet. I just don't want to watch him...

LOL! I think Nadal feels like you too.