Dave's Mock Draft (Masquerading as a 1,000th Post)

Right, apologies for not having said anything for a couple of days but I have had exams. That tediously left me on my 999th post so I figured what better way to break the thousand than by doing my Mock Draft.
This will currently make up my contest entry as well so I will post the selections there as well. So without further ado...

1 - Indianapolis Andrew Luck; QB

No analysis needed.

2 - Washington Robert Griffin; QB (Through St Louis)

The Redskins didn't mortgage their first round future for anyone else.

3 - Minnesota Matt Kalil; LT

Another seemingly obvious pick. I'm not really buying the rumors they could trade down because they need Kalil and I don't think Tannehill comes anywhere close to the top 2 so I can't see Miami trading up.

4 - Cleveland Trent Richardson; RB

Again I'm passing on Tannehill at number 4. Potentially a big error in terms of getting points in the contest. However it occurred to me that Cleveland has nothing in the backfield as Montario Hardesty can't stay healthy and they have ditched Hillis (who I predicted would fall from grace). Trent will help take the load off Colt McCoy for now and I figure they may draft Brandon Weeden at the top of the 2nd round. I don't think Blackmon makes sense here as the WR class is pretty deep this year and they should be able to hit on someone with the Atlanta pick or their second rounder.

5 - Tampa Bay Morris Claiborne; CB

As Pr4wn pointed out elsewhere, he would happily take this incarnation of a "Clayborn". Tampa needs to move on from Talib.

6 - St Louis Justin Blackmon; WR (Through Washington)

I think Blackmon makes more sense at number 6, otherwise the Jags take him. Bradford has shown he can be a good QB in this league and I thought Brandon Lloyd would help him out greatly last year but the niggling injuries came along. Now that Lloyd is gone they need a true number one receiver and everyone saw the impact AJ Green had on Andy Dalton last year. Otherwise your looking a D-Line maybe but Chris Long is actually coming along nicely and there should be a couple of decent guys available at pick 33 like Kendall Reyes or Devon Still.

7 - Jacksonville Michael Floyd; WR

I am a bit torn on this one. I thought about taking Melvin Ingram but I think you have to give Gabbert a chance and if he falters this year then Gene Smith is probably out of the door as a personnel guy. I think it's maybe a little high for Floyd but one day Jacksonville has to actually get a wide receiver as they have been living off scraps for years.

8 - Miami Ryan Tannehill; QB

The Mike Sherman thing means that this makes too much sense. The Dolphins can sit Tannehill for a season and let Matt Moore take the reigns has he did okay toward the end of last year. I figure they will still have a relatively low pick next year as well and they can look to surround Tannehill with weapons that suit his style. Don't see the point in Seattle trading up given they have got Flynn and I feel pretty similar about the Chiefs who have won the division with Cassell and suffered badly with key injuries to their young stars last year.

9 - Carolina Fletcher Cox; DT43

Cox is rising fast on draft boards and should give the Panthers another menace on the defensive line to go with Charles Johnson. I did think about teams trading up in search of Riley Reiff ahead of Buffalo but couldn't find the right deal.

10 - Buffalo Riley Reiff; RT

Speaking of which... Buffalo gets their tackle.

***TRADE*** Eagles send picks 15 (Rd1,15) and 90 (Rd3,26) plus a 2013 4th rounder to the Chiefs in exchange for pick 11 (Rd1,11)
11 - Philadelphia Luke Kuechly; ILB (Through Kansas City)

Philly has a bundle of picks in this draft and is in prime position to move up if required. They desperately need a proper linebacker corps and whilst they have snagged DeMeco Ryans they should jump at the opportunity to get Kuechly who is a great player with zero character issues and a proven record in college. Seattle has been linked with Kuechly recently, hence the need for a deal.
Kansas have also been linked with the linebacker, but I think they are okay for now and have bigger needs on the D-Line and at guard. Also Scott Pioli is in charge and we know how much New England used to trade back!

12 - Seattle Melvin Ingram; OLB34

I don't think Seattle can complain at getting a guy who could have gone at number 6 or 7. It's good value for them.

13 - Arizona Jonathan Martin; LT

The Cards have been inconsistent on the offensive line for a little while now. Levi Brown is alright but they need another guy.

***TRADE*** Bengals send picks 17 (Rd1,17) and 85 (Rd3,21) to the Cowboys in exchange for picks 14 (Rd1,14) and 188 (Rd6,188)
14 - Cincinnati David DeCastro; OG (Through Dallas)

Two reasons for the trade. Number one is that Dallas should not be drafting Mark Barron at number 14. Secondly the Bengals could use a guard, won't have to give up too much and will avoid loosing on DeCastro to the Chiefs who are up next after their trade with the Eagles.

15 - Kansas City Dontari Poe; DT34 (Through Philadelphia)

The Chiefs moved down with the Eagles and still end up with the guy most Mocks have projected to them only here Poe is better value. He is a bit of a risk as his tape does not live up to his combine measurables but the Chiefs really need a good Nose Tackle in the mold of Vince Wilfork.

16 - New York Jets Courtney Upshaw; OLB34

The Jets failed with Vernon Gholston and have since tried Jason Taylor and even Aaron Maybin. Upshaw seems to me as a more reliable pick than Quinton Couples who is failing in this draft.

17 - Dallas Mark Barron; SS (Through Oakland, Through Cincinnati)

Dallas needs to upgrade its secondary further and whilst I considered I corner I feel they could get another in the second or third round given that they signed Chris Carr. After the trade down this is a much better spot for Barron.

18 - San Diego Nick Perry; OLB34

San Diego really needs to replace Shawne Merriman and get a quality rusher. I considered Whitney Mercilus, but I prefer Perry who stays in California.

19 - Chicago Quinton Coples; DE43

Chicago stops the drop for Coples who has the chance to be great but at the same time possesses some risks having admitted to not trying as hard as he should have at North Carolina where he was involved in their general mishaps over recent years. Julius Peppers, a fellow Tar Heel could teach him a thing or two i'm sure and its going to be crucial to get to the NFC North QB's who could otherwise tear the league apart aerially.

20 - Tennessee Stephon Gilmore; CB

Having lost Corland Finnegan the Titans need to solidify there secondary and Gilmore has been rising fast up draft boards and appears to be the new number two corner.

21 - Cincinnati Dre Kirkpatrick; CB

The Bengals addressed their O-Line already else Cordy Glenn would have been the likely pick. Having lost Jonathan Joseph last year I feel that corner is still a position they could improve even with Leon Hall in place. The obvious Bengals pick would be Janoris Jenkins because he has character issues and that makes him a perfect Marvin Lewis player but I'm not going down that route. Kirkpatrick is no slouch himself.

22 - Cleveland Kendall Wright; WR (Through Atlanta)

Offensive firepower is a clear need for the Browns. Having got Richardson earlier over Blackmon they are now in a position to take the third overall receiver. I love Kendall Wright and feel that the Combine really showed him in an undeservingly bad light. He game tape shows he has speed and agility and whilst having RGIII throwing him the ball has helped him I do believe he is a much better prospect than the rough Stephen Hill. This pick gives Colt McCoy one last chance to show if he can be the guy or else provides the next man up a decent target... pretty soon the Browns will morph into the Jags if they don't bother with receivers.

23 - Detroit Cordy Glenn; OG

Detroit would have taken a corner except I don't think they would want Janoris Jenkins anywhere near Ndamakong Suh. I did look at moving them up to get Gilmore or Kirkpatrick but settled on leaving them at 23 and having them take Cordy Glenn. The line play of the Lions has been below average for a few years and the run game has never taken off. Jahvid Best has potential but concussions are a worry, Kevin Smith is probably injured again and they have Mikel Leshoure from last year. If they can provide those guys with some running lanes it might take the pressure of Stafford to throw the ball 50 times a game... it may also keep his shoulder intact for another year or two.

***TRADE*** Patriots send picks 27 (Rd1,27) and 128 (Rd4,31) to the Steelers in exchange for pick 24 (Rd1,24)
24 - New England Michael Brockers; DE34 (Through Pittsburgh)

When I actually looked New England had less draft picks than I imagined... either way they have a pair of first rounders and Belichick should appreciate having a potential force like Brockers to play with. Otherwise he is gone to Denver with the next pick.
The Steelers have Cap Issues and the ability to add later picks means there usually reliable scouting department can get there hands on some cheaper later round talent to fill the spots they had to jettison this off season.

25 - Denver Jerel Worthy; DT43

I'm not sure Denver has much in the middle of the D Line. Certainly a good defensive tackle will help to ensure that Von Miller keeps on impressing for many more years to come.
Worthy has improved his stock of late and has overtaken Devon Still.

26 - Houston Shea McClellin; OLB34

McClellin is flying up draft boards much like Brooks Reed was last year. Reed turned out to be great (as did JJ Watt meaning Houston can already consider last year a success) and McClellin gives the Texans an instant replacement at OLB. I know they like Connor Barwin and so do I, but they will do plenty of rotation amongst the linebackers both inside and outside.
I considered Mike Adams as a direct replacement for Eric Winston who they will be disappointed to have lost for Cap Reasons.

27 - Pittsburgh Dont'a Hightower; ILB (Through New Orleans, Through New England)

Having dropped down with New England the Steelers still get a top notch middle linebacker to ease the transition of their aging defense now that James Farrior is gone.

28 - Green Bay Whitney Mercilus; DE43

There is no secret that the Packers need a rushing threat on the outside. I actually think that the Pack may trade out of this slot if a team comes hunting for the 4th QB to be taken in some sort of desperation move (desperation because this is essentially where Tannehill should really be drafted let alone anyone else!).
Green Bay takes best player available for the most part and Mercilus would certainly be right up the top of their board at this stage. Again Mike Adams in one sense could be an option under the BPA label, however the Pack have invested a fair amount into the O-Line with their last two number 1 picks and I feel upgrades in that area should be left to the mid rounds.

29 - Baltimore Peter Konz; C

I'm pretty sure Matt Birk can't play center forever... isn't he like 50 now...

30 - San Francisco Stephen Hill; WR

I had a tough time making this pick. Again its a team who I could see dropping back into round 2 to let someone come up and grab a QB but I can't bring myself to mock that. If it were to happen they would likely chase someone like Alshon Jeffrey, so why not take Hill here and gamble that he has the route tree to match his physical skill set. Its a risk given that the last Georgia Tech wideout has yet to show his full potential but for the purposes of the mock draft contest someone will take Hill around here so why not the Niners!

***TRADE*** Vikings send picks 35 (Rd2,3) and 100 (Rd4,3) to the Patriots in exchange for pick 31 (Rd1,31)
31 - Minnesota Janoris Jenkins; CB (Through New England)

Two things in the draft are sure...
One is that Adam Schefter and Jason La Canforna will do there best to spoil it (good news if ESPN and NFLN are not showing the green room this year... now just to get these guys away from twitter). The second is that New England will trade out of the first round as if their professionalism lives depended on it.
As its's not for a QB i'm happy to project this trade. The Vikings briefly showed signs of flirting with Morris Claibourne which would be the total wrong move because they need Matt Kalil. However the point remains that they need someone to replace Antoine Winfield and Jenkins unquestionably has the talent. Off the field issues are a major red flag which probably would not spell good news for Leslie Frazier... however I could see Indy or St Louis taking him so you need to move up. I think there is a considerable drop off in the cornerback value once Jenkins has gone.

32 - New York Giants Mike Adams; RT

He's been slipping in my mock and it does have a little to do with the fact he got caught smoking Pot or something. It wasn't done intentionally for that reason but it's just the way the chips fell. The Giants i'm sure would jump at the opportunity to get him at this point but others such as St Louis and Indy could do with him as well and a trade could be forthcoming.

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Note: I did consider bringing Cleveland back into the first round to nab Brandon Weeden... however I could bring myself to do it and I can't see a single team having 3 first rounders in one year!

Nice mock, one thing which strikes me when people do mocks is how they can sort of make the picks fit teams that are trading backward in the hope of landing their "lesser valued" player later on.

For instance is the Boys trade back to 17 I would imagine the Jets would be sorely tempted to select Mark Barron at 16 given the state of their safetys currently. I'm not saying that that would happen, just an observation that you don't see too many teams moving back getting shafted in a lot of the mocks I've seen.

I suppose the Jets could be tempted to take Barron.

I think my attitude to it was that 14 was possibly too high for a safety and that by moving down they would likely still get Barron, but if not then there would still be one of the corners (in this case both Kirkpatrick and Gilmore) available for them to take - with the bonus of gaining some later picks.
The other thing is you simply need to project trades because they will happen... I think on average there are 6-8 moves in the first round per year... and I personally found that the absolute hardest part in writing this. It is easy enough to project something sensible based on who is left on the board but damn hard to figure out who might be moving up or down for value!!

Nice draft! I have quite a few similarities in my draft which isn't finished yet, agree with you about the difficulty with trades. I read a stat that there has been an average of 5.6 trades per first round over the last 15 years, but its really hard to predict who could be the movers. I found myself desperately trying to predict a trade for the Patriots, as they always trade. Its also hard not to just create a situation where the player you want going to a favoured team doesn't just somehow land there.

Looking at your draft, we differ most on Jonathan Martin, you have him going at 13 where as I am deciding whether I should even have him in the first round! Kuechly I just can't see to the Eagles, he will go earlier I think and I can't see Andy Reid trading up for him, especially after the Demeco Ryans trade.

Good to see another entry in the draft contest, will be posting mine up in the next few days!

Can't argue with the top 6, but unsure about Floyd at 7 though I have no idea where he would be taken if not by them or Miami (if they took him over Tannehill) and then you would probably have to add in a trade for someone to jump up and grab him just to make sure they get him. Where do you think Fleener goes? Seen loads of people say it has to be the Niners.

I have a feeling he could go to the Colts at the top of the second, reunion with Andrew Luck, but only if the 49ers don't take him. I think we will take him, unless we trade back, or pick Stephen Hill/Kendall Wright/a guard (Zeitler)

I think jenkins could be a possibility for the niners if he falls, they seem to have taken on players with personal issues in the offseason and he would be difficult to pass up. I'm happy for them to trade up 4-5 spots for wright or hill but if they were to take randle or fleener, i'd prefer they stay put, also hope they don't take a guard in the first

Jenkins is a great talent, but I can just see his character concerns turning him into another Pacman Jones. I wouldn't say corner is a huge need for us at the moment, Rogers and Culliver should be the top 2 this year and I was hugely impressed with Culliver when he was up against Victor Cruz in the second half of the NFC championship game last year.

I wouldn't want to take a guard in the first round, but if Decastro somehow slips to the low 20s I wouldn't be averse to trading up. Iupati and Decastro would create some huge holes in the running game!

Derbyblue wrote:Can't argue with the top 6, but unsure about Floyd at 7 though I have no idea where he would be taken if not by them or Miami (if they took him over Tannehill) and then you would probably have to add in a trade for someone to jump up and grab him just to make sure they get him. Where do you think Fleener goes? Seen loads of people say it has to be the Niners.

Floyd was my wildcard at number 7, but as I said in the blurb someday the Jags have to go and get a decent wideout who can be there for a few years and help whoever their Quarterback is. If Gabbert fails again this year then Gene Smiths head is on the block as far as GMs go so I figure it is in his interest to draft offence.
My alternatives were Melvin Ingram (A Gene Smith kind of guy), Riley Reiff or Stephon Gilmore (who apparently they are very high on and have rated above Claibourne).
I think it's slightly too high for Gilmore, but wouldn't be surprised if they took either of the others.

As far as Fleener is concerned... I get the Niners link because of Harbaugh and I'm no expert on the Niners to the level of some of the guys on here (for obvious reasons) but I don't see the desperate need for a pass catching tight end when you have Vernon Davis. Wideout seems like a need because Randy Moss is unlikely to be the answer.
Fleener would be up for grabs early in round two. Rams or Colts could be in play maybe. I contemplated the Colts trading with New England to go grab Fleener once I had San Fran pass on him.