So we're up to 9, can Scotland make 2nd seed?

A successful few tests which should hopefully have us firmly pointed in the right direction. Touch wood.

I think having Johnson in as assistant has helped galvanise the team a little if I'm honest, disappointed for some of the players though who didn't get a game.

We have New Zealand, South Africa and Tonga this autumn.

I've pencilled out winning against New Zealand already, definitely with the way they destroyed Ireland, I suspect that'll be penned out straight away, they are far too quality a group of players to beat right now. South Africa could go either way, they beat England but never looked hugely convincing, but then again nor did England. Tonga we can and should win, but I don't suspect that'll have much bearing on our ranking, if any.

We need to make 5-8th position in the rankings for the seeding in December 3rd. Do you guys think it could be done with our tough lineup before? I must admit it makes me a touch apprehensive...

I don't know the facts but I'm sure the chat before the summer tour was that if we win all 3 tests and beat Tonga we'll end up in the top 8.

However a win over SA or NZ would definitely confirm it!

If SA play like they did yesterday, then we'll easily beat them at home. A big if though.

Actually I think its going to be very tough for us.

Tonga just lost to Fiji and are now going to be on 74 points vs. us on 78 points.

Given its at home the points diff will be 7 come the IRB rankings calc. so our points if we win will be lets say .4 to .6 better.

Meyer won't take us lightly... I can't see us beating SA... but we will lose all the points we gained vs. Tonga if we lose/more if badly. NZ are too far ahead of us for us to lose any points... and we have no chance against them.. they don't slip up (unlike SA & AUS can do).

In essence, we will be relying on others to get 8th.

If ARG get a win in the 4N it will be near impossible. IRE could slip up with bad losses to ARG & SA.

I think the SRU should have arranged some matches where we could have actually won some points. Its the only time when rankings mean anything... and its pretty f****** important. Bit of a howler.

Tattie Scones RRN

Thats a brave assertion there. This bok side is for real, come the 4N you'll see how good they are. I fancy them to sneak it myself.

As I said fa.....the Boks would need to play like they did yesterday

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:If SA play like they did yesterday, then we'll easily beat them at home. A big if though.

Getting massively carried away there I think.

You can't get any point from beating Tonga right? I think that is the only game you may win, so to answer the question, no.

South Africa is very winnable, we beat them in 2010 and were robbed in 2008 so why not. New Zealand we will lost by 30 odd points, as they are absolutely ruthless against smaller sides especially.

monty, it's winnable, but it's the "easily" bit that Tattie mentioned that could be open to argument

Scotland can do it. Theres a great chance to do it.

Decent record against the Saffers at home, so yes winnable. Not easy, but we've a chance.

I'm really not sure I'd call our record against South Africa at Murrayfield "decent", but yes, there is a chance, albeit a slim one. There is no debating that they and New Zealand will come as firm favourites and with better players, but home advantage is big for us, and the players will be confident and enthusiastic following a successful summer tour.

We also shouldn't underestimate Tonga. We should beat them, but let's not make the mistake of counting that as an automatic win. They will be extremely physical and will want to make a point after being shunted to Pittodrie, very much in the same spirit as our recent victory over the Aussies in Newcastle.

funnyExiledScot wrote:I'm really not sure I'd call our record against South Africa at Murrayfield "decent", but yes, there is a chance, albeit a slim one. There is no debating that they and New Zealand will come as firm favourites and with better players, but home advantage is big for us, and the players will be confident and enthusiastic following a successful summer tour.

We also shouldn't underestimate Tonga. We should beat them, but let's not make the mistake of counting that as an automatic win. They will be extremely physical and will want to make a point after being shunted to Pittodrie, very much in the same spirit as our recent victory over the Aussies in Newcastle.

its better than your record against most other teams

Being realistic and honest, no unless SA and NZ field a third team and then it will still be difficult.

Wasn't a 3rd team last time we beat south Africa 2 years ago. That was definitely a 1st team. And do you really take so much joy in being so patronising?

I think we'll lose to both, but to suggest we'd struggle against their 3rd teams shows a massive amount of disrespect.

Using this excellent rating point exchange, I was able to model the effect of the upcoming Rugby Championship on Argentina's ranking points.

Assuming that the SA-NZ-AUS results are the same as last year (massive assumption, but it's the best we've got!), and assuming that Argentina lose all their games by at least 15 points (possible, if not likely), Argentina will be on 78.14 points by the end of the championship.

The Scotland-NZ match won't have any effect on rankings.
If Scotland beat both South Africa and Tonga, their points will range from 79.60 to 80.32, depending on the size of the wins.
If Scotland lose to South Africa but beat Tonga, their points will range from 78.54 to 79.54
If Scotland beat South Africa but lose to Tonga, their points will range from 76.72 to 78.23
If Scotland lose to both South Africa and Tonga, their points will range from 74.77 to 75.80

I'm off to sit down.

And don't forget to factor in Argentina'sn autumn international possible results!

Oh dear Lord.

I've also just realised that I forgot to factor in the effect of the Rugby Championship on South Africa's ranking points.

I'm going to cry.

glamorganalun wrote:Being realistic and honest, no unless SA and NZ field a third team and then it will still be difficult.

It wasn't a third team, however Burger, Spies, Fourie du Preez, JPPietersen, Habana and Jaque Fourie wasn't there.

Scotland Kicked 6 penalties, The much touted Morne Steyn missed 2 penalties and a conversion.

RDW_Scotland wrote:Wasn't a 3rd team last time we beat south Africa 2 years ago. That was definitely a 1st team. And do you really take so much joy in being so patronising?

I think we'll lose to both, but to suggest we'd struggle against their 3rd teams shows a massive amount of disrespect.

SA wouldn't risk it. If they did I can picture them coming off 2nd best again. They have some amazing strength in depth but can not gel as quickly as New Zealand, plus a lot of thier players will be outside of SA (not sure if that makes them unavailable?). The All Blacks however could probably make 15 changes and still win quite well. That team is unreal.