How Djokovic can beat Nadal on clay

First off let me start by saying that Rafa is as dominant on clay as any champion has been on surface, and then some. He is better on Clay than Pete or Roger have been on Grass. He is better on clay than Borg was on clay. Yet, no one is unbeatable. And I thought it would be interesting to play fantasy coach and give Novak a game plan for beating Nadal on clay.

1. Attack the second serve: Nadal has a great second serve that plays even better on clay but Nole is the best returner in the business and as he proved at IW and Miami he can get into a player's second delivery and cause all kinds of havoc.

2. Go up the line more to wear Rafa down: Rafa has great fitness, but in tennis the best way to force your opponent to run more is to go up the line off both wings with regularity. Most rallies are cross court exchanges, but the up the line shot forces the opponent to cover the whole court especially when you go up the line two or three shots in a row. Then you get the guy scrambling this leads to point #3

3. Once you have Nadal scrambling hit behind him. A good combination for Novak will be up the line backhand to Rafa's backhand followed by a sharp angled cross court forehand behind Nadal. Nadal gives you a lot of space on his forehand side to hit into, so he constantly has to scramble to his forehand side to cover that side. Once you pinned him in the backhand corner he will invariably move back to the center to cover the open court, cross him up. Hitting behind players is always effective on a clay court as it is so hard to change direction. Go up the line to get Rafa scrambling then don't hit into the open court hit behind him.

4. Use the drop shot a lot. Novak has a great dropper and Nadal stands far back and he used it a great deal in miami maybe go to it more often.

5. Stay away from the Rafa forehand on clay as much as possible and don't drop it short on the forehand side. Rafa has a great forehand and the thermonuclear spin and angle he creates off that wing is accentuated on a clay court, when you go to the forehand make sure you go flatter and harder to that side so he has less time to wind up. You want to stay away from dropping the ball short or in the middle of the court.

6. Use a lot of kick serves to Rafa's backhand. The kick serve plays better on clay and Novak has a great kicker, work Nadal over to the backhand side with heavy kick. Nadal handles heavy spin better on the forehand side.

7. Use the slice backhand sparingly, slice stays low on clay but it tends to sit there and not zip through the court, this gives Rafa time to run around and hit the fearsome forehand which is even more fearsome with the added bite of a clay court.

May I add:
1) Get that first serve in ALL the time
2) Go for Nadal's bakchand with ALL your might
3) Beat Nadal in that Madrid final and the rest will follow

Nitb, I think he can do it, as Nole fan I think it will be much harder to do it at RG, but in Madrid and Rome I think he has a real chance. He has to excecute a good gameplan and play at the top of his form. Nadal is real special on clay but others have been able to beat him, when playing well and Novak needs to first off believe that he can break his horrible streak against Rafa on clay. This year that belief he has is going to be the big difference.

socal1976 wrote:Nitb, I think he can do it, as Nole fan I think it will be much harder to do it at RG, but in Madrid and Rome I think he has a real chance. He has to excecute a good gameplan and play at the top of his form. Nadal is real special on clay but others have been able to beat him, when playing well and Novak needs to first off believe that he can break his horrible streak against Rafa on clay. This year that belief he has is going to be the big difference.

You're absolutely right, belief will be crucial and i BELIEVE, Nole's got tons at the moment....I reckon he's going to beat him in Madrid.

No chance for Djokovic vs Nadal on clay.

Even in 2009, when Nadal was around 50%, Djokovic couldn't get the job done. Victories vs Nadal on H/C mean nothing when playing him on clay.

Nadal is too good for Djokovic on clay

I don't know Sonicboom, in 2009 Novak was in a huge slump with his serve. He still pushed Rafa to the limit. And Nadal wasn't slumping he won everything on clay till his 4 plus hour semi against Novak on Madrid, which left him spent for his final against fed. Nole is a fitter player right now with a better serve than he was in 09. And I think he has more belief. Would I pick Novak to win a majority of his matchups with Nadal on clay? No, as I said Nadal is the best clay courter in the game's history. But Djokovic has the movement, the heavy groundies off both wings, the ability to go up the line off both sides, and a great drop shot (which is very important on clay.)

And besides Novak doesn't need to win the majority of his match ups against Nadal to get to #1. He is a better Hardcourt player and indoor player. Rafa has a lot of points to defend. All he needs to do is get either Madrid or Rome off of Rafa, and if he stays healthy he will have a good chance of taking the #1 spot. Madrid is a quick clay court and so is Rome, when compared to RG and Monte Carlo. And I tell you what if Rafa played the same way as he played against Murray in MOnte Carlo, against Novak in Madrid or Rome, Nole would beat him.

To be honest, results speak for Nadal. He must be doing something right to achieve them.
HOWEVER, he is not unbeatable: Soderling beat him and so did a few other players (I don't care whether he was injured or not, he played-so he was fit, just like he didn't play wimbledon when he was not fit).

I'm not an expert of surface variants, but as your average, yet passionate tennis fan, can see that Novak played well on clay against Nadal many times and that his big downside at those times was lack of fitness which now is not an issue.
That teamed up with the confidence he's been playing brings hope that he can and WILL beat Nadal on clay this year

GO NOLEEEEE!!!!!

Yes, Nitb fitness will be the key, and playing Nadal on clay, especially if they meet at the RG final will be the biggest test he could face. And as you noted the belief is also important, tennis is a hugely mental competition and his ability not to get too down on himself and keep fighting when the chips are down.

Djokoviv's fitness may have improved, but you seem to be forgetting Nadal has improved out of sight since 2009. His serve is now a serious weapon.

Nadal on clay has too much for Djokovic

Yes sonic boom, but Novak probably is the best returner of serve in the business, and Nadal's serve this year has been a little shaky in a few matches this year. Yes he gets more free points but he is hitting a lower percentage of first serves in and making more doubles as well. No question Nadal is better. But if I had to say of the two of them who has improved the most in the last 6 to 12 months I would say Djokovic. Of course Nadal was much farther a head of Novak to begin with.

I would like to add something else, Rome is a 'faster' clay court. Which supposedly would favour Djokovic, hasn't Nadal won there 5 times?

If I'm not mistaken he also beat Djokovic in the final in 2009...

sonic_boom10 wrote:I would like to add something else, Rome is a 'faster' clay court. Which supposedly would favour Djokovic, hasn't Nadal won there 5 times?

If I'm not mistaken he also beat Djokovic in the final in 2009...

All good things come to an end....and why not this year, Novak's position is better than ever.

I reckon Nole will pull it off, pure gut feeling.

noleisthebest wrote:

sonic_boom10 wrote:I would like to add something else, Rome is a 'faster' clay court. Which supposedly would favour Djokovic, hasn't Nadal won there 5 times?

If I'm not mistaken he also beat Djokovic in the final in 2009...

All good things come to an end....and why not this year, Novak's position is better than ever.

I reckon Nole will pull it off, pure gut feeling.

Maybe at Madrid, but at Rome? No chance.

"NITB - Nole's Place

A Place for Fans of Djokovic to relax and chat about their biggest love...Djokovic!"

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Are you a fan of Djokovic, sonic_boom10?

Green wrote:"NITB - Nole's Place

A Place for Fans of Djokovic to relax and chat about their biggest love...Djokovic!"

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Are you a fan of Djokovic, sonic_boom10?

it's a forum to discuss opinions buddy, not my love for Djoko, Nadal, or anyone else for the matter

NITB, let him enjoy himself, we Novak fans are hospitable and gregarious like our idol, the great Djokovic. Sonic Boom Rome has always been quicker, I don't really know why but it seems to play faster. It is the only clay court master's event Sampras has won. And Novak has won Rome himself as well. I think in fact that it was either 08 or 09 when Nadal was knocked out of that tournament by King Juan Carlos Ferrero and Novak went on to win the tourney. So the reason that I think Rome is also a possible upset is because it has played quicker traditionally than RG and Monte Carlo. And in the past Novak has done well there.

sonic_boom10 wrote:

Green wrote:"NITB - Nole's Place

A Place for Fans of Djokovic to relax and chat about their biggest love...Djokovic!"

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Are you a fan of Djokovic, sonic_boom10?

it's a forum to discuss opinions buddy, not my love for Djoko, Nadal, or anyone else for the matter

Indeed. I'd be interested to know what makes you so confident Nadal will still be so overwhelmingly dominant over Novak?
Personally I'd split their chances 55% to Nadal 45% to Novak, with Nole to steal one or two tournaments on clay (and that doesn't count Serbia Open)
I can "see" Nole perfecting his drop shot technique in Belgrade this week

Nitb, I'd like to think Novak is a 55-45 underdog, but man we are talking about the greatest clay courter ever. I like your confidence though, my heart tells me Novak will beat him in madrid. My head tells me he is probably a 65-35 underdog.

this is the post I've been trying to post on Tennis.com, but for some reason it vanishes the moment it's posted (conspiracy,ahem!)

Basically the artile is about how boring clay seasons are....so here was my response...PUBLISHED AT LAST Tennis.com eat your heart out!

As a longtime Nole fan, clay seasons have for me been boring only in hidnsight.

Although (mainly due to Nadal and lack of fitness/full development) Novak has not won a lot on clay, I have always thought that he was the number two player on clay.

Yes Federer did have better results, but his rankings have a lot to do with it.

Nole has sat somewhere between Nadal and Ferrer in terms of game: he's got Nadal's talent and class as well as natural good movement on clay, as well as Ferrer type of base-line angle creating shot-making.

This year he brings his confidence, fitness and unsatiating appetite to the table (don't forget, he's lost some weight due to diet change and he can't eat what he likes now

Also, unlike Ferrer, Nole is a lot ballsier, probably the gutsiest player out there: he'll go out there, and he'll give his all.

I'm expecting plenty of drop-shot match practice in Belgrade for Novak.
For Nole fans that means great hopes for an unforgettable clay season EVER ))))

One of the main new additions in Nole's armour will definitely be his maturity which really stands out in his game a lot now: he is not trying to impress any more - he's there to win.

He's taken a leaf out of Nadal's book and now shamelessly bludgeons opponents' backhands: after all, Federer is the GOAT not because his game is elegant but because he won 16 majors.

He does not try to impress Federer in rallies (I think he got it out of his system in that 1st set at AO) he is there to get you!
Nole's also got a bit of Murray's stubborness in his game which could prove to be priceless against Nadal on clay.

All in all, this Nole fan's all ready for another clay season, and , hey, may it be the one without the hindsight for a change !

Nitb, he actually has had good results on the clay he has won titles in Estoril, Belgrade, and the master's in Rome. He has gotten to the semis of RG twice. He is just so good on a hardcourt that people feel like he can't play on other surfaces. With Rafa having been so dominant on clay that no one else has won a whole lot on clay. But I feel like this year it is going to be different. I feel he has the game, the fitness, the belief and the desire to get some big trophies and good results on clay. Novak just looks more together and focused this year. When he gets down in a match he has this look on his face like,"no problem I got this". And then he finds a way to get back and win.

Socal,

my Novak's clay restults reference is only in comparison to Federer's who indeed has had better results on clay, but as I also stated his number 1 ranking has had a lot to do with it.

That is true NITb now that Novak is #2 he won't be facing Rafa till the finals and Roger will be playing Rafa in the semis more often. This the problem for Fed in his quest for more grandslams as well. Unless someone upsets Novak or Nadal in the earlier rounds he will have to play both guys and beat both guys in a 5 set match to get another grandslam. Good post by the way. Novak is definelty ballsy.