Super XV Wrap: Final pool round next weekend!

There is one week's pool round matches to go, and although the final 6 qualifyers aren't set in stone the mathematcis of it all is pretty simple.

If the Bulls and Sharks win their last matches with a 4 try bonus point against the Lions and Cheetahs respectively then they are both in.
If they win without bonus point the Reds need to beat the Waratahs with a bonus point to get into the top six.

If the Reds do manage to best the Waratahs with a 4 try bonus point and either of the Bulls or sharks don't, then the reds are secured of qualifying by virtue of one more win in the pool rounds.

If it is between the Bulls and Sharks then the Bulls should go through due to better points difference.

The Conferences for SA and NZ has been decided and the Stormers and Chiefs can no longer be overtaken.

The Reds can still win the Australian conference, but it seems unlikely as they would need to score a 4 try bonus point win over the Waratahs and the Brumbies will need to lose by more than 7 points against the hapless Blues.

Full Log without bye log points.

Spoiler:

Conference Logs.

Spoiler:

By my reckoning the Brumbies will host the Sharks in the play offs and the Crusaders will host the Bulls in the other play off.

With the winner of the Brumbies vs Sharks to mplay the semi final against the Stormers at Newlands and the other winner between the Bulls and Crusaders to face the Chiefs in the second semi final.

Will SARU have a little whisper in the lions/cheetah's ear I wonder? Come on lads, be good sports and play like crap, for the greater good. Didn't something similar happen last year, or year before? Was a points differential thing, and low and behold, the SA teams thrashed their rival by just the right amount, how convenient

What about the canes?

I read the same comment on The roar.

If that is the case then nobody spoke to the Lions when they trounced the Sharks week before last.

Fair dues biltong, we'll perhaps leave it for conspiracy theorists. Going to be an exciting final weekend that's for sure. The canes can squeak in can't they, if they beat the chiefs?

I reckon it is between the Crusaders and chiefs to win this tournament mate.

Nah, chiefs will conspire to c*ck it up. Can it be stormers v crusaders final? That'd be in SA wouldn't it?

The Stormers haven't been able to win a trophy in Currie Cup or Super XV, they choke.

A good question EBOP. Say it's a Chiefs Crusaders semi and a Stormers vs Brumbies semi and the Chiefs finish top of the table with the Stormers second. If the Crusaders beat the Chiefs do they get the home final or does it go to the Stormers? Because if it's the former, the travel schedule makes the Crusaders (if they win of course) firm favourites and if it's the latter (and the Stormers win) then it's a lot more even. Of course the Brumbies and Chiefs could win in which case the travel schedule makes the Chiefs firm favourites.

PS Just watched the full game of the Crusaders and I got the impression Bryce Lawrence used up all his lifelines as video ref by the end of the game. 50:50 was used for the Ellis (non)-try, he asked the crowd for another decision and then phoned a friend (someone down the pub he once met who had mentioned he had watched a couple of games of rugby in his life) to ask him about the rules over putting the ball on the touch line.

Kia, if the Crusaders win and the Stormers win then the final goes to Newlands, the highest ranked team on the log gets the home final.

Well that seems fair enough. So I'll be cheering on the Brumbies then! We've won in Can-bore-a before. Plus the travel will take some sting out of them.

Frankly the Crusaders have disappointed me this season. They have lost games at crucial times and have lacked consistency. And yet here they are with seemingly an easier run to the final than the other side of the draw. You can never write these pesky fellas off.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:PS Just watched the full game of the Crusaders and I got the impression Bryce Lawrence used up all his lifelines as video ref by the end of the game. 50:50 was used for the Ellis (non)-try, he asked the crowd for another decision and then phoned a friend (someone down the pub he once met who had mentioned he had watched a couple of games of rugby in his life) to ask him about the rules over putting the ball on the touch line.

damn near ripped my undies with that Ellis decision. eh eh Brucie, goodbye.

I think that neither the bulls or Saders would worry about playing away to the cheifs so I think if its the Saders they'll beat the cheifs and I think If the bulls beat the Saders they have to fancy beating the Cheifs away aswell.

Other side seems to be the stormers.

The Bulls beat the Saders on the highveld. Don't think they will do it in NZ.

They've never beaten the Crusaders in NZ.

But I do think that the Bulls like all top teams will go there believing that if they play their game they will win.

That is half the battle when playing away.

I am not sure the sharks or reds would go with that belief

EBOP wrote:Will SARU have a little whisper in the lions/cheetah's ear I wonder? Come on lads, be good sports and play like crap, for the greater good. Didn't something similar happen last year, or year before? Was a points differential thing, and low and behold, the SA teams thrashed their rival by just the right amount, how convenient

What about the canes?

I can't remember anything like that ever happening...

The Bulls beat the Reds by 92-3 but that was in 2007 and against an Australian team.

Two years back the Bulls rested a few of their top players against the Stormers in the final game in Cape Town when they already rapped everything up and no-one could overtake them. They lost and the Stormers came second on the log, but I don't think they would have won in Cape Town any way.

And as a Stormers supporter I can remember quite a few times that we were played out of a semi spot in the last game by a South African team, the worst in my memory is by the Lions.

How did Sonny Bill know the Chiefs would have a good shot at winning the title? That guy gets all the luck.
Bilt, not quite sure in my understanding of the 6 team play-off. Could you explain it a bit further for someone a bit slow?

Morgannwg wrote:How did Sonny Bill know the Chiefs would have a good shot at winning the title? That guy gets all the luck.
Bilt, not quite sure in my understanding of the 6 team play-off. Could you explain it a bit further for someone a bit slow?

1 and 2 on the combined log get an automatic home semi final.

3 and 4 host 6 and 5 respectively. The winner between 3-6 plays 2 and the other winner plays 1. Then you have the final.

So 1 and 2 play less games?

Yes, Morgann, 1 and 2 gets a rest week.

In my opinion it is stupid. The fifth and sixth placed teams have to travel a hell of a lot to qualify for the final.

Take the Sharks and Bulls who will most likely end 5th and 6th.

The Bulls travel to Christchurch to play the crusaders, The sharks to Queensland.

Then lets say they both win, then the Bulls go play the Chiefs, the Sharks travel back to SA to play the Stormers.

Then if the sharks and the Chiefs win, then the Sharks get back on a plane to go play the chiefs.

The 5th and 6th placed teams have no chance, they might as well have just kept 4 semi finalists.

Yeah that's what I was thinking. I also think the whole conference idea is stupid. You could add 3rd/4th and 5th/6th play-off place though instead perhaps?

Season is already too long, I wouldn't bother. And I also don't like the conference system, I would rather just have a single round robin.

FerN wrote:

EBOP wrote:Will SARU have a little whisper in the lions/cheetah's ear I wonder? Come on lads, be good sports and play like crap, for the greater good. Didn't something similar happen last year, or year before? Was a points differential thing, and low and behold, the SA teams thrashed their rival by just the right amount, how convenient

What about the canes?

I can't remember anything like that ever happening...

The Bulls beat the Reds by 92-3 but that was in 2007 and against an Australian team.

Two years back the Bulls rested a few of their top players against the Stormers in the final game in Cape Town when they already rapped everything up and no-one could overtake them. They lost and the Stormers came second on the log, but I don't think they would have won in Cape Town any way.

And as a Stormers supporter I can remember quite a few times that we were played out of a semi spot in the last game by a South African team, the worst in my memory is by the Lions.

Yeah FerN, think that was it, meant a home semi for the stormers didn't it? Anyways, sorry I was just being cheeky. Unlikely to happen, come on the Cheetahs!

I'm quite confident about our chances.... I think the Chiefs have a real tricky SF (either the bulls or the Crusaders). We on the other hand will have the sharks or the Brumbies.

Bring back a few of our top players and I think if we're at home for the final, the title will be ours.

Some say we have choked in the past.... I don't think so. We've never choked... in the past we've simply not been good enough. Our pack previously was a little lightweight, esp. our backrow. Now we have 5/6 guys who hold their hands up for selection each game.

We've finally got the monkey off our back over the bulls... our home and away victories have been so important for this teams belief.

Our pack is simply immense... great on the floor, lineout kings and a 930-940kg scrum. Boom!

Shame our backline is following the Stuart Lancaster book on attacking rugby plays.

c

biltongbek wrote:There is one week's pool round matches to go, and although the final 6 qualifyers aren't set in stone the mathematcis of it all is pretty simple.

If the Bulls and Sharks win their last matches with a 4 try bonus point against the Lions and Cheetahs respectively then they are both in.
If they win without bonus point the Reds need to beat the Waratahs with a bonus point to get into the top six.

If the Reds do manage to best the Waratahs with a 4 try bonus point and either of the Bulls or sharks don't, then the reds are secured of qualifying by virtue of one more win in the pool rounds.

If it is between the Bulls and Sharks then the Bulls should go through due to better points difference.

The Conferences for SA and NZ has been decided and the Stormers and Chiefs can no longer be overtaken.

The Reds can still win the Australian conference, but it seems unlikely as they would need to score a 4 try bonus point win over the Waratahs and the Brumbies will need to lose by more than 7 points against the hapless Blues.

By my reckoning the Brumbies will host the Sharks in the play offs and the Crusaders will host the Bulls in the other play off.

With the winner of the Brumbies vs Sharks to mplay the semi final against the Stormers at Newlands and the other winner between the Bulls and Crusaders to face the Chiefs in the setcond semi final.

And...because we're talking mathematically...if the canes beat the chiefs with a bonus and either the bulls or sharks lose then the canes will qualify, depending on the reds outcome. There are a few more scenarios out there.

Wouldnt put it past a mitchell free lions upsetting the cart.

The lions winning in the Versfeld??? less likely than the bulls putting 50 on them.

Personally I wouldn't want the chiefs to mess up... means a tough SF for us.... go Chiefs (well sort of).
More likely to see the Sharks fall to the Cheetahs but then again they are in good form themselves.... I can't see either slipping up.

biltongbek wrote:Season is already too long, I wouldn't bother. And I also don't like the conference system, I would rather just have a single round robin.

Me neither. Like last year...when the saders draw prevented them playing the rebels and lions...a certain 10 points..meant even more travel while oz and SA teams played them both twice!

This year teams like the lions and cheetahs again assist the local sides.

The NZ conference has four teams with 9 or more wins- over 50 percent. SA have 3 with the next on 5. Simply put the top six doesnt represent the best six the NZ sides having the toughest home matches.

Oz should really have taken the three spots but their teams simply couldnt win away.

fa0019 wrote:The lions winning in the Versfeld??? less likely than the bulls putting 50 on them.
.

perhaps but there have been bigger upsets- for instance our bottom dwellers stuffed the bulls there didnt they?

The lions have found some form and the bulls were hopeless last weekend- never even in it from the start. They dont look like away contenders at all.

Taylorman, after this last round I am going to provide you with some very interesting results of the Super Xv over the past two years.

Up to now Ive always been a big supporter of the bonus point system, but when you have a competition of fifteen teams and the team coming last gets more bonus points than the team coming second I might have to go away and have a think.

aucklandlaurie wrote:
Up to now Ive always been a big supporter of the bonus point system, but when you have a competition of fifteen teams and the team coming last gets more bonus points than the team coming second I might have to go away and have a think.

Maybe they should have a win be 5 points instead of 4, then the Stormers will also be on top though which is sort of fair, since they had more wins, but as a Stormers supporter myself I really don't think we should be on the top of the log. We played well, just not exceptional.

I have no issue with the points system, I have a bigger issue with the fct that all the teams don't play each other.

biltongbek wrote:I have no issue with the points system, I have a bigger issue with the fct that all the teams don't play each other.

Ja, the top two teams on the log didn't get to play each other. Really unfair to a team that had to play them both.

Yep, it is a farce.

Apologies if this has been covered, I don't watch much Super XV.

Is the Lions being replaced for next season dependant on if they finish bottom this season?

Also when will a decision be made?

The talk is the Lions will be removed, the decision is supposed to be made this week.

Cheers Biltong - I'm interested from a selfish point of view as if they are removed then Ciliers should announce he's signing for the Scarlets.

It's a shame for the Lions though and for SA rugby that they can't get 6 franchises or merge the Cheetas/Lions into a workable Cats franchise

Usually bet the home team in these matches Bulls,Stormers,Crusaders all wins.Reds,and Chiefs match is too close to call Hurricanes have home advantage
a bonus point win gives them a mathematical chance of qualifying.Problem is I can see the NZ sides cancelling each other out.A NZ finalist but away to the Stormers ,Crusaders tho well down the pecking order could just go to SA and win they did last year.Don`t think the Chiefs have the experience to do that.Why Please Smirnoffpriest do you think SA deserve another 6th side when only 3 of there 5 sides havebeen consistent losing sides for years.ditto Aus with 5 or NZ with 5.

Why are they axing Lions? Is it to do with funding?

No Morgann, SARU promised the Kings entrance into the Super XV, but can't get a sixth team in there until next negotiations.

There is another thread on here, titled Kings and Lions, it gives you a lot of detail as to why.

https://www.606v2.com/t32210-super-rugby-the-lions-vs-kings-fiasco

If the powers that be decide that a sixth south African team is needed, warranted in Super xv/xvi then so be it, I dont really have a problem with it.
I'm just glad New Zealand isnt pushing for a sixth team as I cant see how a sixth team could be competitive,especially when most of our second tier players are in Japan,Europe or in Australian teams, in fact it could possibly have the effect of making the current NZ teams less competitive.

Great match between the canes and chiefs so far. 18-15 half time. Nothing tackle on sbw cost the canes ten mins during which chiefs got a close in try.

Kicks are hopeless in this wind which has swirled here all day.

Canes try a gem which went through many hands over 70 meters. Whoever wins will get their bonus point. Tries are certain second half.

Canes two tries to savea.

Not even sure who i want to win but canes certainly deserve to qualify such is the qualityof their rugby. If they dont theyll be the real victims of this ridiculous format.

Odd decision from Kaplan there, Taylorman, altho the commentators are blaming the linesman - but Kaplan isn't obliged to listen to his assistant, is he? Tamefuina (sp?) is an incredible find for NZ btw - ABs in the next year or so, or too early?

It was the linesmans call from what i saw.

Yes he was in the early training squad. Probably be in the AIs at least.

Shields struggling with a knee injury - he's played pretty well this season, hadn't heard much about him before?

It's one of those games where the little things go against one team.

Canes try an intercept but it doesn't stick, the Chiefs try it and it works, Kaplan in the way of a defender so chiefs score a try.

Little things.

And then from the restart someone infront of the kicker

Can't get a finish closer than this!

Kerr-Barlow hand under that one?

I think KB should make a DVD on how to stop tackles close to the line. That's a top effort.