Jumping the gun Jeff predictions

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Mon 09 Jul 2012, 2:12 pm

Ok so we already know that ~~Newcastle~~ LW will finish bottom with Worcester ahead of them.What about the other places?

Bath -4th to 8th Like many clubs its really hard to say how they will go next year,.On parer a strong squad but recent seasons have shown them underachieve.Should benefit during the international windows
Exeter 6 -10th Controversial? Maybe, but I cant see them being better thanlast year whilst a lot of the "pack" have improved their squads
Gloucester 5th -9th One of the mid table bunch of clubs who are much of a muchness. The selfish attitude of billy tewelvvtrees andhis unreasonable demands may cause disruption to thes quad.
Hairyqqueens 1-3rd After last season proved they can get lucky in a final they might be hit a touch harder in the international windows but should still be one of the top clubs competing for the right to meet Tigers in the final
London Irish 5tt-10th One of the mid table bunch of clubs who are much of a muchness. Improved squad this yearbut I think they will fall short of the playoffs
London Wasps 4th-8th One of the mid table bunch of clubs who are much of a muchness. Improved squad this year but I think they will fall short of the playoffs
Northampton 3rd-7th Slipped a bit from their peak a couple of years ago and Ashtons departure wont help them.Most likely will be in the mix again though
Saracen 1-4th - no reason to suspect the most boring club in south africa wont be allowed to ruin the playoffs again this year
Sale 5th to10th One of the mid table bunch of clubs who are much of a muchness. Improved squad this yearbut I think they will fall short of the playoffs
Tigers -1st to3rd As we know British rugbys greatest club will be decimated by international callups and are notorious slow starters. Its hard to imagine them not being in the mix all the same. Moral victors, only the salary cap is holding them back etc.

As always theres a few clear contenders for the top spot and a tier below that who will be looking to crash the playoff party. Quins showed last year that a team we suspected could be good can actually really get it together and be very good, so theres room for surprises. Most of the clubs are at a pretty similar level.

by formerly known as Sam Mon 09 Jul 2012, 2:20 pm

The FKAS prediction:

1.Tigers (finished second only just despite losing 5 of the first 6 LY)
2.Sarries (with their injured players back they will be a handfull again)
3.Quins (needed a couple of tight five signings which they haven't had, a couple of injuries or a HEC run could see them struggle for depth)
4.Saints (understimate that pack at your perial, some astute off season signings made as well)
5.Exeter (call me mad but they operate as such a good unit they are tough to keep down, a quick HEC exit will see them concentrating on the league)
6.Glaws (rejuvinated squad and new management team don't throw it away unlike last season where a suicidal approach to the second half of the season cost them)
7.Sale (good squad with a couple of great signings added)
8.LI (lack of grunt up front may be their undoing but with Smith in charge I predict a cup run)
9.Wasps (new team and with the LV Cup and Amlin sacrificed will improve on LY)
10.Bath (seemingly perennial underachievers now, new management same average squad relying too heavilly on individuals, may spring some suprises on the way)
11.Worcester (hard working team but have lost both their flair wingers in the off season)
12.LW (couple of good youngsters will shine as the team sinks to the bottom, should help them get AP contracts in the future though)

by beshocked Mon 09 Jul 2012, 3:58 pm

Got to say despite I agree with most of what you guys have said.

I think FKAS's prediction is more or less spot on though I think 4-7 could shuffle around.

I expect Quins to do well in the HC (look at their group!) which will test their resources more as well as being affected more by callups. I think this will affect their league position. Plus every team will be more fired up to beat them - especially Tigers and Sarries to avenge their defeats.

by **Ozzy3213** Mon 09 Jul 2012, 4:17 pm

1. Tigers
2. Saints
3. Saracens
4. Quins
5. Sale
6. Irish
7. Chiefs
8. Gloucester
9. Wasps
10. Bath
11. Worcester
12. Welsh

If pushed this is what I would go for, but I agree with others that you could put the teams I have from 4-10 in any order really as they are all evenly matched. I think Quins will find it tougher this season as they will be targeted and will have to cope with the expectation that comes with being the champions.

I fancy Saints could win it this year.

by formerly known as Sam Mon 09 Jul 2012, 4:29 pm

I dunno Ozzy, the Saints pack looked pretty below par last year and at flyhalf they have two rather average playmakers. I expect them to come back firing and play well but until they have a 10 that is international quality I think they'll struggle. They should have pushed the boat out to snare Hodgson when he went to Sarries.

by **Ozzy3213** Mon 09 Jul 2012, 4:42 pm

you could be right, I just have feeling that they are quietly going about their business this summer and will come back strong when the season starts.

I guess part of me would like to see a 4th different name in 4 seasons on the trophy so is sort of willing them to do it, as I can't see any of the other sides realistically getting the better of Tigers, Sarries or Quins.

by HongKongCherry Mon 09 Jul 2012, 4:46 pm

Without doubt it'll be:
1. The greatest team in the world... Ever!
2. Quins
3. Sarries
4. Saints
5. Glaws
6. Chiefs
7. Sale
8. vomit

9. Irish
10. Wasps
11. Wuss
12. Oxford (but it might be vomit

!)

by **Ozzy3213** Mon 09 Jul 2012, 4:51 pm

Do you really think Glaws will finish 5th HKC? I am not convinced that much will change with Davies in charge. I still see you as being brilliant from 9-15, but struggling up front.

by HongKongCherry Mon 09 Jul 2012, 5:01 pm

Ozzy3213 wrote:Do you really think Glaws will finish 5th HKC? I am not convinced that much will change with Davies in charge. I still see you as being brilliant from 9-15, but struggling up front.

I'm quietly confident about our future, but next year may be a transition year. Our pack's hope are largely based on Nick Wood's fitness, so as long as he stays fit we'll be alright. The signing of Morgan and Kalamafoni will add far more grunt compared to Strokosch and Narraway - both good players, just light weight.

by **Ozzy3213** Mon 09 Jul 2012, 5:04 pm

Morgan and Kalamafoni are both 8's aren't they? So an either/or situation with them starting as opposed to them teaming up?

by HongKongCherry Mon 09 Jul 2012, 5:08 pm

From my understadning K is a 6/8 and was being viewed as primarily a 6 for us - but that was under Brush, so ND may have other plans.

by Portnoy Mon 09 Jul 2012, 5:09 pm

Ozzy, the financial future of Wasps remains publicly opaque - so they remain enigmatic. Have they the sufficient financial backing from the consortium to guarantee the future for next season (let alone the mid-long) haul? This matter was aired both briefly and obliquely in last Tuesday evening's BBC Five Live rugby discussion http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01k9r43/5_live_Sport_5_live_Rugby_03_07_2012/ . [ed - last half hour or so in the segment on LW]

Given that everything is OK, and are not impacted seriously by international calls-up the I'd guess the table would look something like this:

1. Tigers
2. Quins
3. Saracens
4. Chiefs
5. Saints
6. Gloucester
7. Wasps
8. Irish
9. Bath
10. Sale
11. Worcester
12. Welsh

by **Ozzy3213** Mon 09 Jul 2012, 5:13 pm

Wasps are a really difficult one to place this season Portnoy. They have strengthened well with the likes of Palmer, Haskell and Ashley Johnson coming in, yet I have a nagging doubt in my mind around whether or not Dai Young can get the best out of his team.

We all seem to be agreed here that Welsh are doomed, however, if they can bring in a couple of good signings and the orange one works out well, they could surprise us all. I have to say I think Bath will struggle this season and could get dragged into a relegation battle should Worcester and Welsh start the season well.

by DaveM Mon 09 Jul 2012, 8:47 pm

The AP has a lot of evenly matched sides, many of which look a bit stronger than last season.

I predict someone unexpected will finish in the top 4, and that means one of this years not making it. My current guess is LI will break in (lots of ability coming in), and Sarries will drop out (I just think they are so predictable that more and more sides will be able to start turning narrow defeats into victories, and a few key players will be away with England a lot).

by HERSH Mon 09 Jul 2012, 9:06 pm

1. Tigers
2. Saints
3. Bath
4. Saracens
5. Quins
6. Gloucester
7. Chiefs
8. Irish
9. Wasps
10. Sale
11. Worcester
12. Welsh

by yappysnap Mon 09 Jul 2012, 9:24 pm

1. Tigers
2. Saracens
3. Saints
4. Quins
5. Glos
6. Bath
7. Ex
8. Wasp
9.li
10. Sale
11. Wus
12. LW

2-5 could be interchangeable , saints sarries and quins have all looked fragile when targeted while glos proved they can match any one when they're heads are in the right place.

by SirBurger Tue 10 Jul 2012, 8:43 am

So hard to call this season. I think:

1. Leicester
2. Saracens
3. Quins
4. Sale
5. Northampton
6. Irish
7. Wasps
8. Gloucester
9. Exeter
10. Bath - should be more disciplined under Gold, but just don't think the squad looks that strong
11. Welsh
12. Worcester

by SirBurger Tue 10 Jul 2012, 10:24 am

Think I am overestimating the impact Johnson will have at Wasps. Would have them in 10th in hindsight.

by **Biltong** Tue 10 Jul 2012, 10:27 am

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Saracen 1-4th - no reason to suspect the most boring club in south africa wont be allowed to ruin the playoffs again this year

We kicked them out, too boring, why you thnk they aren't playing in the Super XV?

Even the Stormers and Bulls are more entertaining. Whistle

by beshocked Tue 10 Jul 2012, 10:28 am

Sirburger why Sale so high?

Yappysnap Quins,Sarries and Saints fragile? Explain? I would say some of the teams lower down the table are but definitely not Quins and Sarries particularly.

Hersh explain your reasonings please.

by SirBurger Tue 10 Jul 2012, 10:30 am

beshocked - I am actually not sure. I keep changing my mind! Think they have recruited well, but now I think 4th is too high! I think this is one of the hardest seasons in memory to call.

by doctor_grey Tue 10 Jul 2012, 10:33 am

formerly known as Sam wrote:I dunno Ozzy, the Saints pack looked pretty below par last year and at flyhalf they have two rather average playmakers. I expect them to come back firing and play well but until they have a 10 that is international quality I think they'll struggle. They should have pushed the boat out to snare Hodgson when he went to Sarries.

As a Saints fan, I am not a believer in Ryan Lamb. But, I think Myler is solid, if unspactacular, and he did lead them to the Heineken Cup final and Premiership semi-final two seasons ago. No reason why he cannot do the same. The pack does need to rebound and I am interested to see how Ashton's former wing slot unfolds.

by sirtidychris Tue 10 Jul 2012, 10:40 am

1. Tigers
2. Quins
3. Saracens
4. Northampton
5. Gloucester
6. Bath
7. Sale
8. Chiefs
9. Wasps
10. London Irish
11. Worcester
12. Welsh

by beshocked Tue 10 Jul 2012, 10:41 am

Sirburger why don't you have a shuffle?

Biltongbek as the main and I think only SA fan on these boards do you know anything about Alistair Hargreaves and Nick Fenton-Wells who have joined the South African friendly Hertfordshire based English club - Sarries?

Doctor Grey what has happened to Cato and Armitiev? In particular Armitiev's Saints career seemed to start really brightly but I haven't heard much since.

Personally I like Sam's the most.

by **Biltong** Tue 10 Jul 2012, 10:53 am

Beshocked, allistair Hargreaves was in contention for Springbok colours, he recieved 4 caps as a springbok, by memory it was during the time that PDV rested Bakkies and Victor, he is still young only 25 or 26, good prospect, tall bloke, could perhaps bulk up a bit for physicality.

Nick fenton Wells is not in the class of a Scalk Burger, not as heavy but not a bad player. Pure bred SA back row stock.

by **Biltong** Tue 10 Jul 2012, 10:56 am

By the way, there are a handful of SA supporters here on 606V2 now.

Fern
Stormers1
MrFishpaste
FA0019 (although he emigrated from Scotland he is now a Stormers supporter and his son supports the boks)
Bullsbok (He usually only comes on here when the Boks play)
myself.

by beshocked Tue 10 Jul 2012, 11:05 am

Thanks Biltongbek. Kind of what I expected to be honest. If they make as much of an impact as most of our other foreign signings I'll be very pleased!

Still the most interesting Saracens signing for me is Lorenzo Romano - let's see what he can do in a stronger side.

by Bathite Tue 10 Jul 2012, 11:05 am

Tigers
Saints
Saracens
Exeter - won't lose any players to England, Johnson will be released from most matchday squads. Added Mumm and that big winger, with Camacho and Mieres firing, they are looking good
Glos - recruited well, but change in coaching will be the biggest difference. Players actually wanting to play. Cowan, Morgan and 36 big additions
Bath - change in coaching, key players fully fit, James at LH to sort out scrum. Nearly finished 5th after what was a dreadful season
Quins - will prove to be a one off season, losing Robshaw, Marler, Brown to England will hurt them too much
Sale - some good signings and good signs of progress last year
Irish - a lot rests on their TH, if they sign one and how quickly Sa adapts
Wasps - think some bulk up front has been added nicely
Worcs
Welsh

by Bathite Tue 10 Jul 2012, 11:08 am

apart from the top three of Saints, Tigers and Sarries and the bottom two of Worcs and Welsh, I think that the rest is completely up for grabs! So many changes in personnel and/or coaching staff, so will be really interesting to see how it plays out. Hoping that Bath manage to blag some points during the 6Ns, where we get to play some of the big boys

by formerly known as Sam Tue 10 Jul 2012, 11:13 am

As a Saints fan, I am not a believer in Ryan Lamb. But, I think Myler is solid, if unspactacular, and he did lead them to the Heineken Cup final and Premiership semi-final two seasons ago. No reason why he cannot do the same. The pack does need to rebound and I am interested to see how Ashton's former wing slot unfolds.

Perhaps Doc, but when the backs are up against the wall and you need that big of magic to get you through or give you that edge Myler doesn't supply it. Lamb can supply it but as you say isn't consistent enough despite playing alright last season.

I'm hoping that young winger of yours Jamie Elliott will get an extended run in the side, seems to be a really good young player. Him on one wing with Artymiev on the other (if he's back from injury) should be a pretty threatening combo with Cato, Pisi Jnr and Diggin waiting in the wings.

by sirtidychris Tue 10 Jul 2012, 11:35 am

Bathite wrote:Tigers
Bath - change in coaching, key players fully fit, James at LH to sort out scrum. Nearly finished 5th after what was a dreadful season

BOOM yes bathite, watch out for bath sneaking in the playoffs, essentially last year we had a wierd season with injuries and odd team ethos.. this season the following guys will either be or will be like new signings.
Donald
Fearns
Hipkiss
Eastmond
James
Webber
Day
Agulla

Plus a great coaching team and loads of youngsters pushing for recognition for the first time in long long while ...last season will mislead alot of punters.

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Tue 10 Jul 2012, 11:48 am

sirtidychris wrote:
Bathite wrote:Tigers
Bath - change in coaching, key players fully fit, James at LH to sort out scrum. Nearly finished 5th after what was a dreadful season

BOOM yes bathite, watch out for bath sneaking in the playoffs, essentially last year we had a wierd season with injuries and odd team ethos.. this season the following guys will either be or will be like new signings.
Donald
Fearns
Hipkiss
Eastmond
James
Webber
Day
Agulla

Plus a great coaching team and loads of youngsters pushing for recognition for the first time in long long while ...last season will mislead alot of punters.

Now I love historical revisionism as much as the next man but by "nearly finished fifth" you do mean "finished 15 points behind the 5th placed team in 8th, on level points with the 9th placed team and closer to the total of the relegated team"

However I agree that Bath are strong contenders for a top 6 finish.

by Bathite Tue 10 Jul 2012, 11:58 am

Maybe I meant 6th, not 5th, apologies. I remember thinking that despite how awful we had been, with 2 extra wins, in games we should have won, we would have been relatively happy with our finishing position and in the HC, which is a joke really.

by HERSH Tue 10 Jul 2012, 12:07 pm

I sense a new Golden era for Bath Rugby is just around the corner.

by Bathite Tue 10 Jul 2012, 12:10 pm

...oh god, wave the red rag to the bull! here comes the abuse

by HERSH Tue 10 Jul 2012, 12:14 pm

It will do us good to have a season out of the HC, mark my words Bath Rugby will win the Jeff and the HC within the next 3 seasons.

Let the good times roll once again.

C'mon Bath Yahoo

by Portnoy Tue 10 Jul 2012, 12:32 pm

I'd like to see that Hersh.

C'mon the hoardes of English yeomen going once more unto the breach.

Too many Englishmen lying a'bed cursing themselves etc.

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Tue 10 Jul 2012, 12:36 pm

HERSH wrote:I sense a new Golden era for Bath Rugby is just around the corner.

Is a Golden Bath in anyway related to a Golden Shower?

by JAM204 Fri 13 Jul 2012, 11:14 am

Most of you have Sale coming between 7th and 10th despite saying we have good signings. After finishing 6th last season, that would be a step backwards. Whilst I agree it will be a big battle to finish top 6 again this season whilst also playing HC rugby, it will be minimum criteria to finish 6th and/or win the Amlin (presuming we qualify for that after dropping out of the HC)

by formerly known as Sam Fri 13 Jul 2012, 11:19 am

I don't think Sale will be worse than last season I just expect other teams to have improved more than they will. Gloucester being the big one in terms of expected improvement.

I think Sale's season is going to ride heavilly on the performances of Cipriani, which is an unstable place to be.

by beshocked Fri 13 Jul 2012, 11:38 am

JAM204 I think Sale are one of quite a few sides who will be eyeing up that 4th spot in the playoffs.

The bookies gives a good indication IMO.

On Ladbrokes to make the final :

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/club-rugby/aviva-premiership/to-reach-final

If you feel Sale have a punt why not make a bet?

by formerly known as Sam Fri 13 Jul 2012, 12:07 pm

Exeter aren't a bad bet on there, I'm tempted. They'll be out of Europe fairly quickly due to their tough group and have a stronger squad than LY that won't be hit by many callups (Camacho, Johnson and Mieres only).

by Effervescing Elephant Fri 13 Jul 2012, 12:23 pm

formerly known as Sam wrote:Exeter aren't a bad bet on there, I'm tempted. They'll be out of Europe fairly quickly due to their tough group and have a stronger squad than LY that won't be hit by many callups (Camacho, Johnson and Mieres only).

Not even that bad as Mieres played in the Summer tests and isn't in line for the RC this year.

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Fri 13 Jul 2012, 12:27 pm

Carpe Diem wrote:
formerly known as Sam wrote:Exeter aren't a bad bet on there, I'm tempted. They'll be out of Europe fairly quickly due to their tough group and have a stronger squad than LY that won't be hit by many callups (Camacho, Johnson and Mieres only).

Not even that bad as Mieres played in the Summer tests and isn't in line for the RC this year.

But delayed arrival of Dean Mumm Sad

by **profitius** Fri 13 Jul 2012, 12:30 pm

Quins to top the table but I don't know who'll be crowned champions. How have the Saints recruited this summer?

by beshocked Fri 13 Jul 2012, 12:33 pm

profitius wrote:Quins to top the table but I don't know who'll be crowned champions. How have the Saints recruited this summer?

Reasons?

Do you not think that Quins will be affected by their HC campaign (should go far with their group) and call ups for key players?

Saints have signed Dominic Waldouck from Wasps,Luther Burrell from Sale and some other players I don't know much about.

by yappysnap Fri 13 Jul 2012, 4:21 pm

I think Quins will be struggling for top two, I have a lot of belief in our youngsters but if you look at the squads of the top teams ( Tigers, Saracens, Saints even Bath and Glos) they all have a bit (or a lot) more strength in depth then us.

We have a lot of potential talents in the academy and A team but if we suffer plenty of call ups and injuries then it could be a season or two too early for most of them.

I think we'll do well to finish second but we could just as easily finish out of the top four if it's as competetive as last season.

by HongKongCherry Fri 13 Jul 2012, 4:56 pm

JAM204 wrote:Most of you have Sale coming between 7th and 10th despite saying we have good signings. After finishing 6th last season, that would be a step backwards. Whilst I agree it will be a big battle to finish top 6 again this season whilst also playing HC rugby, it will be minimum criteria to finish 6th and/or win the Amlin (presuming we qualify for that after dropping out of the HC)

But Glaws, vomit

and Irish all underperformed quite badly last year, so I can't see all 3 day the same... maybe vomit

will though! Wink

Whilst I was very unhappy in the manner Brush left us, I am not in the contingent referring to him as Judas and I'm sure you'll have a decent season. I do feel it would be a major triumph if you were to win the Amlin this year. Whilst you have a relatively easy HC group it'll still be tough to finish 2nd and then play an away Q/F and go on, so I'm surprised you view is as a minimum criteria.

by HongKongCherry Fri 13 Jul 2012, 4:58 pm

HongKongCherry wrote:
JAM204 wrote:Most of you have Sale coming between 7th and 10th despite saying we have good signings. After finishing 6th last season, that would be a step backwards. Whilst I agree it will be a big battle to finish top 6 again this season whilst also playing HC rugby, it will be minimum criteria to finish 6th and/or win the Amlin (presuming we qualify for that after dropping out of the HC)

But Glaws, and Irish all underperformed quite badly last year, so I can't see all 3 doing the same... maybe will though!

Whilst I was very unhappy in the manner Brush left us, I am not in the contingent referring to him as Judas and I'm sure you'll have a decent season. I do feel it would be a major triumph if you were to win the Amlin this year. Whilst you have a relatively easy HC group it'll still be tough to finish 2nd and then play an away Q/F and go on, so I'm surprised you view is as a minimum criteria.

by jeffwinger Sun 15 Jul 2012, 5:43 pm

I'll be very disappointed as a glos fan if we come outside the top 6 again this coming season. I'd even be fairly expectant of a playoff birth. No reason why not. Some big name signings (Cowan, Morgan, Tweletrees) and some shrewd additions from lower leagues (Kalamafoni, Cook, Burgess (TBA)) plus the refreshing new coaching set up including the impressive Paddy Anson.

In line for a solid 4th-6th finish this year before a ridiculous kamikaze attitude in the last 6 weeks turned a reasonable season into an awful one. The quality was there for 3/4 of the year though, with the youngsters especially encouraging.

Doubt we'll lose too many to international call ups this year so should be strong in those windows. Hopefully restore the Kingsholm fortress and pick up the tight away wins that we've missed in the last 2 years. Could even be this seasons Quins - you heard it here first!

Overall predictions:

Tigers - same old, should be hanging around in the top 2 or 3 come the end of the season as usual, ready for a serious playoff challenge. Maybe not quite as infallible as in years gone by but still a match for anyone even at 75%. Definite top 4.

Sarries, Saints, Quins, Glos - other playoff contenders, will depend how they cope with loss of internationals and how the arrivals fit in. Saints weren't that impressive this year and Ashton will be a loss, but Lawes and Wood returning will help. Quins need to consolidate their top 4 credentials, but I expect them to progress in the HC so they will be stretched to the maximum. Sarries should plod along as before, hopefully Ashton and Tomkins can add a bit of flair out wide but I wont hold my breath.

Ex, Sale, Bath, Wasps, LI - all scrapping for the last one or two HC places, looking for a big burst to challenge for the playoffs but in my view, mainly likely to occupy the safe but unexciting spots 7-10. Bath should be doing better and new coaches may help there, Wasps and Sale have made strong signings but I think Wasps will suffer for their financial woes again and the Sale revolution will take longer than a year to kick on.

Worcester - comfortably 11th, below the rest but well ahead of LW. Don't expect them to be drawn into a relegation scrap but also don't expect them to pick up a huge number of wins. They've made some good signings and are a good example of a solidly run and well supported Premiership team, but still lack the depth in class of the sides who have been in the top division longer.

LW - pretty much down by Christmas, record low points total, nowhere near ready for the level they will be expected to play at and wasting what little money they have on Henson says all you need to know about their genuine rugby ambition. Hopefully their unplanned and short-sighted dash for the cash wont terminally cripple another fine old club.

by Sponsored content