Are we really a 'slim' chance for Europa cup next season?

I've read in several places (bbc/telegraph) that the win against man city, kept our 'tiny' chance of europa next season alive.

Are they missing the fact that if man utd/man city win the FA cup, we get the third spot in next years competition?

Surely if we can keep 6th (looks likely now), we have at least a 75% chance...Unless, I've got something wrong here

Correct, I believe; if Utd or City win the FA Cup, and both have qualified for the Champions League, the 6th place gets into the Europa.

I guess they are forgetting to add the word "automatic" to the phrase 'qualifying place' ....
... but, hey, when did the truth get in the way of a good headline .... certainly not since the advent of News24/7

The only automatic League place is 5th so we would need to catch Spurs, 5 pts ahead and a game in hand.

That game is home to Arsenal on Wed 20th, so we need the Gunners to win that and then we need to beat Spurs on the 2nd last weekend of League fixtures.

Even victory there would still mean Spurs having to drop 2 other pts more than us, and us get ahead of their goal difference....
.... Spurs do also have away games against Chelsea and Man City to come .... tough run-in for them.

Based on all those permutations, 'slim' is probably an accurate description.

I can't say wanting a place in the Europa league by hoping Man Utd win the double appeals to me.
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This Is The News (comment below) is correct, just checked Wiki, assuming it's right

"If the winners have qualified for the Champions League or Europa League, then the runners-up qualify for the Europa League.
If the runners-up have already qualified for the Champions League or the Europa League, the highest placed team in the Premier League standings who have yet to qualify for the Champions League or Europa League would qualify for the Europa League."

..... so Bolton or Stoke are in Europa and we do have to catch Spurs.

In the case of an already qualified side winning the FA cup, the EL spot goes to the FA cup runners up, I believe, and not 6th place. This means either Bolton or Stoke will be in Europe, hence your 'slim chance'/

That's a terrible rule, European spot for losing a cup final. Should go to 6th place 38 games in a season compared to 5 cup ties.

Yeah, I was mistaken, the euro place will go to the losing finalists- not us. Slim indeed!

Sting in the tail for Birmingham ? .............. and they won a Cup Final

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/apr/15/birmingham-city-europe-fa-premier-league

Now, I don't agree completely with this "Lose a Cup Final - go directly to Europe" rule, but any back door attempt by the FA or Premier League to get round it is even worse.

As a life-long LFC fan I do not want a place in Europe because the ruling bodies think we would make better telly revenue than Birmingham, Stoke or Bolton.

If they accept any team into the Premier League in the first place it should be on a minimum "2-year business plan" analysis of their finances and then reviewed every year.

In that way they would automatically be granted a UEFA licence if they qualify in year one of that plan, regardless of the route, and regardless of the dubious nature of that route.

After looking at spurs' run in,

Tottenham v Arsenal
Tottenham v West Brom,
Chelsea v Tottenham
Tottenham v Blackpool
Man City v Tottenham
Liverpool v Tottenham
Tottenham v Birmingham

They are 5 points clear of us (with a game in hand), all they need to do, is lose three of these games to give us a chance of Europe. I think they will lose to Chelsea, Man City and Us. Due to their poor away record compared to the home teams. That just leaves us winning every game....simple!