Three weeks to ye #1

by barrystar Tue 23 Oct 2012, 12:26 pm

Here we go - Federer is embracing the challenge according to the ATP Tour, but surely it's too much for him and Paris is where it will most likely come undone?

Federer Embraces ‘Crazy Three Weeks’

World No. 1 Roger Federer says that a repeat of his triple crown finish to last season is achievable, but that he would not let the challenge become a burden in the final three weeks of the season. Speaking after his first-round 7-5, 6-3 win over Benjamin Becker at the Swiss Indoors Basel, Federer said that his chances of repeating his hat-trick of 2011 wins in Basel, the BNP Paribas Masters in Bercy and the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London depended on a number of factors.

“I think it’s possible, but look, it’s tough,” Federer said. “It all depends on what the scheduling is, who your opponents are and if you get a chance to get on a run... But that shouldn’t be my goal right now to win all three again. The goal is to first play here and see how I go.”

This year it will be an even tougher challenge with no rest week between Paris and London. Federer needs a strong finish to the year if he is to win the battle with Novak Djokovic for the prized year-end No. 1 position in the South African Airways ATP Rankings.

While Federer spoke of staying focused on the immediate goal of winning a sixth title at his hometown event in Basel, he did let his mind wander briefly to the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, where he will look to win a seventh crown.

“There’s no question I want to play well at the [Barclays ATP] World Tour Finals,” he said. “That should be the highlight of the season now at the end of the year. It is one of the biggest events we have in the sport and I want to finish the season strong against my fellow Top 10 players. So there is still a lot on the line, but right now I have to think day by day. It’s the only way to handle the next crazy three weeks.”

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2012/10/43/Basel-Monday-Federer-Embraces-Three-Crazy-Weeks.aspx

by HM Murdock Tue 23 Oct 2012, 12:52 pm

barrystar wrote:Here we go - Federer is embracing the challenge according to the ATP Tour, but surely it's too much for him and Paris is where it will most likely come undone?

The race may last until London but I'd be very surprised if he takes YE#1.

If my maths are correct, assuming Fed wins Basel, Novak just needs to match Roger's performance in Paris to take the YE#1.

Even if Fed wins all 3 remaining tournaments, a SF in Paris and 3 wins at WTF will see Novak home.

There's enough for Novak to do that it's not a foregone conclusion but the odds are strongly in his favour at present.

As a side note, Novak has accumulated his points in 3 fewer tournaments than Fed or Andy. He's had an amazingly consistent year.

by **JuliusHMarx** Tue 23 Oct 2012, 1:22 pm

HM Murdoch wrote:As a side note, Novak has accumulated his points in 3 fewer tournaments than Fed or Andy. He's had an amazingly consistent year.

Novak has 18 tournaments that make up his total ranking points, Fed has 17 - having played 2 less Masters events (one of which for some reason is still counted in the 21 total events, but with 0 points), and 2 non-countable events.

by HM Murdock Tue 23 Oct 2012, 2:21 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
HM Murdoch wrote:As a side note, Novak has accumulated his points in 3 fewer tournaments than Fed or Andy. He's had an amazingly consistent year.

Novak has 18 tournaments that make up his total ranking points, Fed has 17 - having played 2 less Masters events (one of which for some reason is still counted in the 21 total events, but with 0 points), and 2 non-countable events.

I was referring to YTD (but I was still wrong!).

Are they not at 15 each for 2012? The differences are Novak played Monte Carlo, Canada and Beijing but Fed played Doha, Rotterdam and Halle (and is playing his 16th, Basel, this week)?

by bogbrush Tue 23 Oct 2012, 2:51 pm

I think Fed's best chance isn't to be #1 after the WTF, but to be close enough to have a run at re-taking it after the Australian.

by sirfredperry Tue 23 Oct 2012, 2:53 pm

Reckon the tough one for Fed will be Paris. He ought to win Basel and he'll go flat out in London with the knowledge that he can have a long break afterwards. But Paris? He'll probably make an early exit.
Saw a few highlights of the Fed-Becker match. The courts looked slow and Becker managed to ward off any number of break points before losing the first set and then did break Rog in the second only to lose all the remaining games.

by HM Murdock Tue 23 Oct 2012, 3:21 pm

bogbrush wrote:I think Fed's best chance isn't to be #1 after the WTF, but to be close enough to have a run at re-taking it after the Australian.

I think that period may see him fall behind a bit!

Between Australia and RG, he has 3,405 points to defend. That's about 500 points more than Novak and over 2000 more than Andy!

The only big gains he can make are Miami and/or to play Monte Carlo. Apart from that he's defending wins in Dubai, Rotterdam, IW and Madrid!

by bogbrush Tue 23 Oct 2012, 3:38 pm

HM Murdoch wrote:
bogbrush wrote:I think Fed's best chance isn't to be #1 after the WTF, but to be close enough to have a run at re-taking it after the Australian.
I think that period may see him fall behind a bit!

Between Australia and RG, he has 3,405 points to defend. That's about 500 points more than Novak and over 2000 more than Andy!

The only big gains he can make are Miami and/or to play Monte Carlo. Apart from that he's defending wins in Dubai, Rotterdam, IW and Madrid!

No, I mean immediately after the Australian. There he has a semi to defendwhereas Djokovic won it, so 1300 points difference. Were he, say, to win that there'd be 2000+ swing and he'd probably be back at #1 until Indian Wells at worst.

by HM Murdock Tue 23 Oct 2012, 4:01 pm

bogbrush wrote:
HM Murdoch wrote:
bogbrush wrote:I think Fed's best chance isn't to be #1 after the WTF, but to be close enough to have a run at re-taking it after the Australian.
I think that period may see him fall behind a bit!

Between Australia and RG, he has 3,405 points to defend. That's about 500 points more than Novak and over 2000 more than Andy!

The only big gains he can make are Miami and/or to play Monte Carlo. Apart from that he's defending wins in Dubai, Rotterdam, IW and Madrid!
No, I mean immediately after the Australian. There he has a semi to defendwhereas Djokovic won it, so 1300 points difference. Were he, say, to win that there'd be 2000+ swing and he'd probably be back at #1 until Indian Wells at worst.

Ah, I see.

Yes, could happen. I must confess that I don't expect a Federer win in Australia. But even if he makes the semi and Novak is runner up, things are presently tight enough that those 800 points Novak loses may swing it back to Fed.

by bogbrush Tue 23 Oct 2012, 4:35 pm

No, I don't either but as you say there are other scenarios; if Murray was in Djokovic's half, for example, and Nadal wasn't "right" it might easily be a RU for Federer and a semi for Djokovic.

by socal1976 Tue 23 Oct 2012, 6:10 pm

I don't see it as foregone conclusion, but if Novak can replicate his form in the Asian swing then I think he takes it out of Roger's hands. Credit to federer he has been wonderful this year and has made all those people who called for his retirement after poor losses over the last couple years look foolish. Not many on this site to be honest but critics in general who would focus on his bad or ordinary days way too much.

by sirfredperry Wed 24 Oct 2012, 9:44 am

How about an upset today ? Bellucci to beat Fed. Rog had trouble with him earlier this year. Might just follow up my win betting on Berdbrain to beat Fed at the USO by putting some money on the Brazilian. Hoping I lose the bet, of course !

by socal1976 Wed 24 Oct 2012, 5:00 pm

sirfredperry wrote:How about an upset today ? Bellucci to beat Fed. Rog had trouble with him earlier this year. Might just follow up my win betting on Berdbrain to beat Fed at the USO by putting some money on the Brazilian. Hoping I lose the bet, of course !

Sif fred Belluci on indoors? Well good luck it would make me happy as pie as it would be great for Djoko's year end #1 race. Good call on Berdy at the USO though. Are Berdych and Tsonga at Basel, I haven't been keeping track?

by sirfredperry Fri 26 Oct 2012, 2:44 pm

Tsonga pulled out injured in his tourney and Berdych aint playing this week. Well I was almost right about Bellucci although he was a tad fortunagte to take it to three sets after squandering a 6-2 lead in the second TB.
Didn't put any money on it, though. Could be that Fed will have a far easier match tonight against Paire than in the first two rounds. A Fed win here would tie him with Johnny Mac on 77 tour titles. It seems there's a little bit of history created almost every time he steps on court. Certainly did not think he could possibly reach the 77 mark this season, nor catch Agassi match wins (870) or McEnroe's (875).

by socal1976 Fri 26 Oct 2012, 5:26 pm

Yes nearly 900 match wins is amazing. 300 match wins is considered a pretty good career so to triple that number and still be going strong is quite amazing. I think fed has a shot at connors match win record, but I highly doubt he has any chance of catching jimmy for most tournament wins. I think connors has over 100 and something tournament wins. How has fed looked sirfred I haven't been watching Basel, what would you rate his form going into paris?

by Henman Bill Sat 27 Oct 2012, 3:17 pm

Federer about to play semi final against 101 ranked Matthieu, so I'll call that a Federer win. Feel free to tune in, that's 300 ranking points in the bag once he wins this *jinx alert*. He needs to beat Del Potro in the final to get to 500.

by Henman Bill Sat 27 Oct 2012, 3:18 pm

I think Federer will take 300 points from

Djokovic 11,410
Federer 9,555

1855 will be the difference now.

For Federer to stay in contention, he MUST either win the Paris title or Djokovic exit early. Preferably both.

by sirfredperry Sat 27 Oct 2012, 6:29 pm

Socal. Have only caught some of the Basel highlights on YouTube. Bellucci played very well and that was the sort of tight match that Fed has been winning this season.
Fed's first serve success rate against Paire was phenomenal, winning all but one of the points when he got his first serve in.
He didn't face a BP in today's semi final and served 10 aces, so the serve seems to be holding up well.
If he's likely to fall at some stage in the next two weeks it's more likely to be in Paris next week. He'll want to do well in London and knows that will be it for this season.

by socal1976 Sat 27 Oct 2012, 7:02 pm

sirfredperry wrote:Socal. Have only caught some of the Basel highlights on YouTube. Bellucci played very well and that was the sort of tight match that Fed has been winning this season.
Fed's first serve success rate against Paire was phenomenal, winning all but one of the points when he got his first serve in.
He didn't face a BP in today's semi final and served 10 aces, so the serve seems to be holding up well.
If he's likely to fall at some stage in the next two weeks it's more likely to be in Paris next week. He'll want to do well in London and knows that will be it for this season.

Good breakdown sirfred, i think Djoko should have gone to basel sounds like he would at least been a shoe in to get 300 points and reach the final. That would effectively put the race out of reach by Paris. In my mind by not going to Bsel he dangerously opens the door just a crack for fed. But from this field I don't know how much that tells us about fed's form.

by Henman Bill Mon 29 Oct 2012, 12:15 pm

So Federer pulled out of Paris, the race is over.

by Henman Bill Thu 01 Nov 2012, 7:30 pm

Did Federer concede the year end no 1 unnecessarily? Of course Djokovic's loss might not have occurred had Federer entered Paris, but...I think Federer should have gone to Paris and just turned up on court and saw what happened. He could have always slightly tanked once he saw Djokovic winning or went a set down against a good player.

by HM Murdock Thu 01 Nov 2012, 8:10 pm

Henman Bill wrote:Did Federer concede the year end no 1 unnecessarily? Of course Djokovic's loss might not have occurred had Federer entered Paris, but...I think Federer should have gone to Paris and just turned up on court and saw what happened. He could have always slightly tanked once he saw Djokovic winning or went a set down against a good player.

If it was on Fed's racquet, maybe he would have entered.

But even if Fed had entered and won Paris, he would still be 1000 pts behind Novak going into to WTF. He would be relying on Novak falling early in that tournament. And of course, the exertions of Paris may inhibit his performance in London.

His chances of winning another WTF when rested are probably much better than his chances of grabbing YE#1 with a load of niggles and dragging himself through tournaments.

There will always be that "what if?" but on balance I think it's a sensible decision.

by barrystar Fri 02 Nov 2012, 8:53 am

Henman Bill wrote:Did Federer concede the year end no 1 unnecessarily? Of course Djokovic's loss might not have occurred had Federer entered Paris, but...I think Federer should have gone to Paris and just turned up on court and saw what happened. He could have always slightly tanked once he saw Djokovic winning or went a set down against a good player.

I don't think so - nobody knows better than Fed what his priorities are and how far he wants to push himself for them. He's got the weeks at #1 record, he most probably appreciated that he could not win Paris and go on and go a good job at the WTF, which he always wants to do well at.

Looking forward I expect that he's most interested in winning as many big tournaments as possible and letting the ranking take care of itself - giving up Paris would match that aim.

by Henman Bill Sat 03 Nov 2012, 7:29 pm

Ah, but look at the WTF draw! Not impossible that Djokovic could go out into the group stage and Federer clean up! That's it, you see, you just never know what will happen.

I still think he conceded too early, wouldn't have cost him much energy to blow away a couple of easy opponents in the first couple of rounds and see how it went.

Maybe it's because I personally rate year end number one so highly.

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