guessing the final week for the HC and the 8 1/4 finalists

From Planet rugby,

Saracens - Need a win at home to Edinburgh, a bonus point (tries? yeah, right) would highly likely be enough to get them a home quarter-final. Predicted points finish: 23

Munster - Probably won't catch Sarries unless there's a major upset, but a win at home to Racing Metro ought to see them through as best runners-up. Predicted points finish: 19

Racing Metro - Need a bonus point win at Munster and for Leicester, Biarritz, Northampton and Leinster all to lose (Leicester without a bonus point) to even dream of a second-placed finish. Predicted points finish: 12

Toulouse - Need a win away at Leicester. Predicted points finish: 19

Leicester - Need a win against Toulouse, which even then would only see them travel in the quarters. Predicted points finish: 20

Harlequins - A home quarter-final awaits, irrespective of what happens in Biarritz. Predicted points finish: 25

Biarritz - A bonus point win at home to Harlequins and any four of Leicester, Racing Metro, Munster, Northampton, Montpellier and Leinster losing sees them through. Predicted points finish: 18

Ulster - A win away at Castres will probably be enough to get them to Ravenhill in the quarters, a bonus point win definitely would. Defeat, not unthinkable, would leave them sweating, but even a single bonus point would be enough. Predicted points finish: 23

Northampton - a bonus point win and a pointless defeat by Castres, or any four of Leicester, Racing Metro, Munster, Biarritz, Montpellier and Leinster losing sees them through by the skin of their teeth. Predicted points finish: 19

Castres - A bonus point win at home to Ulster and defeat for any five of Leicester, Racing Metro, Munster, Biarritz, Montpellier and Leinster... about the same chance of making it as a pot plant in a tornado. Predicted points finish: 14

Clermont - The Marcel Michelin awaits someone. Even defeat at the Scarlets would not harm their chance of a home quarter, although a bonus point-less defeat would leave things edgy. Like that's going to happen. Predicted points finish: 27

Leinster - A bonus point win leaves them in a possible fight for a best runners-up spot, but they also need favours in the form of defeats for any four of Leicester, Racing Metro, Munster, Biarritz and Montpellier. Predicted points finish: 19

Toulon - A win gives them a fearsome home quarter, defeat to Montpellier will only damage their prospects of that, not of overall qualification. They are through, just need the win to seal the deal. Predicted points finish 27

Montpellier - A win over Toulon of any form would be enough to see them through as the best runner-up. Defeat leaves them needing any four of Leicester, Racing Metro, Munster, Biarritz and Leinster to lose too. Predicted points finish: 18

Predicted quarter-final line-up

Clermont v Leinster
Toulon v Munster
Harlequins v Leicester
Ulster v Saracens

So they have Munster, Leinster, Toulouse and Northhampton finsihing on 19 points. Without knowing the tries scored it is hard to say who will get through.

I don't think Montpellier will lose as Toulon will rest players as they did in the T14 when they played one of the big teams away and didn't need the win.
I can't see Munster getting a TBP and I think they have too few tries compared to others.

I would expect Monpellier to make in and not munster

also think that Leinster will get the TBP as its the only way they can assure themselves of getting there.

So that would have them on 20 and Monpellier on 22

Also not sure that Northampton will win against Glasgow as they were luck at home and Glasow will not want to end up with no wins, so I think them and Castre will lose.

now a bit of conspirary theory that might please the likes of Greytiger: If Montpelier and Toulon draw, will that be enough for both to qualify?

If they both get tbp cause its such an open running game they would both get 3pts.

That leaves Toulon on 26 and Monpellier on 21 and on 21 they can't be caught expect by Leinster so yeah that works. But surely not

Couple of £ on a draw, normally its about 15/1, may be a good investment?

For me:

Sarries to end as they started with a TBP over Embra - 23pts (15 tries)
Munster beat Racing without TBP - 19pts (11 tries)

Leicester beat Toulouse, without a TBP - 20pts (15 tries)
Toulouse sneak a last minute penalty to get TBP - 19pts (15 tries)

Quins lose a tight one in Biarritz, no TBPs - 25pts (29 tries)
Biarritz - 18pts (17 tries)

Clermont continue a fine qualifying campaign - 27pts (22 tries)
Leinster v Exeter (i feel Exter may win - but either way deny Leinster the tbp) - 19pts (10 tries)

Toulon to lose a tight one away to Monpelier - Toulon 24pts (24 tries)
Montpelier - 22pts (17 tries)

Group 4 is tough as it depends how serious Castres are but...
Ulster win a tight one - 23pts (14 tries)
Saints squeak a win in glasgow - 18pts (8 tries)




that would see a 1/4 Final lineup of:

Clermont v Leinster or Toulouse
Quins v Montpelier
Toulon v Leicester
Saracens v Ulster

Of course it could all look very different

this this the first time ever in the HC we have 3 teams going for 6 out of 6 on the last round of matches. Usually there is one but to have 3 must be first.

Also in Clermount get 6 from 6 you wouldn't beat against them being the first to win every game to lift the HC.

Personally I think Leinster are hitting form again, they started the season with lack of form, and injuries, but in last few weeks have started to look like the best team in Europe again. I think a TBP against Chiefs is doable for them, but will say just a win is more likily.

Munster must be really gutted about that game in France at the start, and I think they will get the win, but maybe not the TBP.

arrghhh at this stage its all ifs and buts, think I'll just watch it and see how it pans out.

Almin cup looks like it will have some decent teams in knock outs as well.

When they say a loss would leave Ulster "sweating" do they mean for a home quarter?

Ulster will top group 4 no matter what happens next weekend but we would need a TBP win and other results to go our way if we are to secure a Home Quarter, no?

MrsP wrote:When they say a loss would leave Ulster "sweating" do they mean for a home quarter?

Ulster will top group 4 no matter what happens next weekend but we would need a TBP win and other results to go our way if we are to secure a Home Quarter, no?

Looks like Ulster need tries but if they get tries then they get the extra point so it could be Sarries v Ulster but depends on who is at home by who scores the most tries.

If Ulster get 4 tries and win they are guaranteed a Home QF Mrs P. IF we get the win with no BP and saracens BP win agaisnt Edinburgh then the only way we stay above them is if we score 3 tries and Saracens score 4 only.

That would leave us 1 try ahead. Sarries have the advantage of knowing what exactly they will need when they take the field. Ulster need to balance making sure they win and also trying to get those 4 tries. Thats part of the reason i would start Marshall at 9.

Real kick in the teeth to think that our loss to saints could cost us a home qf. Lot of injuries inthe ulster squad at the moment, and we don't enjoy france at the best of times.

indeed willy. The injuries are finally getting the best of us i think. We have done really well thus far but its just getting ridiculous

Stand,

I don't think we'll have a choice unfortunately.

Just a guess I should add.

What, no Welsh Regions in the mix?

I think the lack of tries for Leinster and Munster could scupper their chances. Their one plus is that one of Leicester and Toulouse will lose points to the other.

i think we can cope without jackson and williams in that wilson and marshall can replace them. Payne and best is another matter. our depth is gone to pot.

Brendan wrote:From Planet rugby,

Saracens - Need a win at home to Edinburgh, a bonus point (tries? yeah, right) would highly likely be enough to get them a home quarter-final. Predicted points finish: 23

They certainly don't have as many tries as the other table toppers, but Saracens beat Edinburgh at Murrayfield 0-45 with 5 tries, so they are capable if they turn their mind to it, and they know that they have to score as many tries as possible to have a chance of beating Ulster to a home quarter (who play the day before, so they'll know exactly how many they need if Ulster don't get a TBP). It'll be interesting how full strength and determined a side Edinburgh send down to Saracens and likewise the side Castres put out at home.

Firstly I really hope Leinster get the TBP win.

I hope Montpellier lose to Toulon by more than 7
I hope that Toulouse either beat Tigers or get beaten by more than 7.
I hope that Munster score less tries than Leinster.

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Firstly I really hope Leinster get the TBP win.

I hope Montpellier lose to Toulon by more than 7
I hope that Toulouse either beat Tigers or get beaten by more than 7.
I hope that Munster score less tries than Leinster.

not asking for much then.

I think playing Clermount, Toulon or quinns at home might be to much for most teams. Expect those three plus another to be in the semi's unless something drastic happens with results.

If Toulouse get a TBP win against tiger (not likely) that could see them as home contender. Lets not forget that they did come to Quinns last year and won easily in the end. Not sure if I would fancy playing them away either.

I accually wouldn't mind getting Clermount as people would expect nothing from Munster, though the Amlin looks apealling depending who else drops down as toulouse could be in it aswell.

Also could this be the frirst year that no runner up comes from a group with an italian team in it.

Brendan wrote:Also could this be the frirst year that no runner up comes from a group with an italian team in it.

I sure hope so!

From Munster perspective its very simple. A TBP win will 90% guarantee them a QF space thereby probably knocking Leinster out.

Assumptions

1. Two teams come from pool 2 - Toulin and Montpellier leaving one slot

2. If and a big if we get TBP then Leinster would need to score 6 tries against Chiefs as 5 would draw us level - it then goes to points difference which Munster are ahead by 19.

3. Last chink is Toulouse could lose but get 2 bps to knock Munster out.

So there basically Munster need a TBP against Metro which nobody thinks we can get so clearly we will

Great synopsis Blue, one tiny issue. If Munster beat Racing by 1 point getting the TBP (4 tries) and Leinster beat Exeter with 5 tries and by 20 points then we are level again.

Then it goes to a coin toss.......no seriously it actually goes to a coin toss.

What you reckon the chances are of getting a TBP against Racing.

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Great synopsis Blue, one tiny issue. If Munster beat Racing by 1 point getting the TBP (4 tries) and Leinster beat Exeter with 5 tries and by 20 points then we are level again.

Then it goes to a coin toss.......no seriously it actually goes to a coin toss.

What you reckon the chances are of getting a TBP against Racing.

tiebreakers within each pool are as follows:

Competition points earned in head-to-head matches
Total tries scored in head-to-head matches
Point differential in head-to-head matches

ERC has four additional tiebreakers, used if tied teams are in different pools, or if the above steps cannot break a tie between teams in the same pool:

Tries scored in all pool matches
Point differential in all pool matches
Best disciplinary record (fewest players receiving red or yellow cards in all pool matches)
Coin toss

hawalsh wrote:

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Great synopsis Blue, one tiny issue. If Munster beat Racing by 1 point getting the TBP (4 tries) and Leinster beat Exeter with 5 tries and by 20 points then we are level again.

Then it goes to a coin toss.......no seriously it actually goes to a coin toss.

What you reckon the chances are of getting a TBP against Racing.

tiebreakers within each pool are as follows:

Competition points earned in head-to-head matches
Total tries scored in head-to-head matches
Point differential in head-to-head matches

ERC has four additional tiebreakers, used if tied teams are in different pools, or if the above steps cannot break a tie between teams in the same pool:

Tries scored in all pool matches
Point differential in all pool matches
Best disciplinary record (fewest players receiving red or yellow cards in all pool matches)
Coin toss

Ah forgot discipline! Thought I had that one nailed!

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Great synopsis Blue, one tiny issue. If Munster beat Racing by 1 point getting the TBP (4 tries) and Leinster beat Exeter with 5 tries and by 20 points then we are level again.

Then it goes to a coin toss.......no seriously it actually goes to a coin toss.

What you reckon the chances are of getting a TBP against Racing.

lol brilliant

Can we get 4 tries. At the way our backs are operating at the moment - not a chance. No teeth, no cutting edge, predictable, slow. Its funny unlike the past we are seeing good individual performances but the sum of the parts is not working.

We were rubbish against Cardiff, not much bette against Embra and our coaches dont seem to know what they are doing.

So I predict a try fest win for Munster

BlueMuff wrote:

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Great synopsis Blue, one tiny issue. If Munster beat Racing by 1 point getting the TBP (4 tries) and Leinster beat Exeter with 5 tries and by 20 points then we are level again.

Then it goes to a coin toss.......no seriously it actually goes to a coin toss.

What you reckon the chances are of getting a TBP against Racing.

lol brilliant

Can we get 4 tries. At the way our backs are operating at the moment - not a chance. No teeth, no cutting edge, predictable, slow. Its funny unlike the past we are seeing good individual performances but the sum of the parts is not working.

We were rubbish against Cardiff, not much bette against Embra and our coaches dont seem to know what they are doing.

So I predict a try fest win for Munster

Crazy logic but I love it !

Yellow cards apiece so far for Munster and Leinster.

Now if ROG gets cited and banned for that kick...

Jimpy wrote:What, no Welsh Regions in the mix?

No. The Welsh players have nothing to prove as they're pre-selected for the Lions anyway.

I reckon Leinster will get the TBP.

All due respect to the Chiefs but they aren't 3-time champions for nothing and they certainly were that on Saturday.

theslosty wrote:I reckon Leinster will get the TBP.

All due respect to the Chiefs but they aren't 3-time champions for nothing and they certainly were that on Saturday.

I think Joe will bring out every trick in the book that he knows too.
Expect to see some miracle one off plays. I hope we get to see 4 lads lined up behind the scrum! That would be unreal.

hawalsh wrote:

Brendan wrote:From Planet rugby,

Saracens - Need a win at home to Edinburgh, a bonus point (tries? yeah, right) would highly likely be enough to get them a home quarter-final. Predicted points finish: 23

They certainly don't have as many tries as the other table toppers, but Saracens beat Edinburgh at Murrayfield 0-45 with 5 tries, so they are capable if they turn their mind to it, and they know that they have to score as many tries as possible to have a chance of beating Ulster to a home quarter (who play the day before, so they'll know exactly how many they need if Ulster don't get a TBP). It'll be interesting how full strength and determined a side Edinburgh send down to Saracens and likewise the side Castres put out at home.

Goes to show what Planet Rugby know.

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:

theslosty wrote:I reckon Leinster will get the TBP.

All due respect to the Chiefs but they aren't 3-time champions for nothing and they certainly were that on Saturday.

I think Joe will bring out every trick in the book that he knows too.
Expect to see some miracle one off plays. I hope we get to see 4 lads lined up behind the scrum! That would be unreal.

You got 13-man llineouts - was that enough?