Quarters Line up; toughness rating

What's gone is gone, now the business end emerges. The favourites have contrasting fortunes in their matches, so who has it tough and who has the cupcake draw?

1. Djokovic v Berdych; toughness rating 9.2

Basically, Berdych is the best player outside the top 4 (Ferrer included) defined as a threat to a top player. Sure, his h2h against Djokovic is dire but after the Stan experience Tomas will have his high hopes. He needs to hit big and be aggressive, especially on return of serve to unsettle Novak (the disintegration of the Djokovic serve for a set and a half was alarming to his fans).

2. Federer v Tsonga; toughness rating 8.5

Tsonga has form for taking out big boys, including this particular big boy. He also has form for falling apart, but nonetheless he's powerful, experienced and won't be afraid like perhaps one or two schoolboys have recently been against TMF. I'd say he needs to win the first set but we know he doesn't even need to win one of the first two. Second-hardest possible quarter for sure.

3. Ferrer v El Mugro; toughness rating 5.5

Hapless Nico will turn up and swing his elegant backhand, then fall apart as soon as the going gets tough. Nice draw for Daveed, who is redfining "under the radar" for a top 4 seed.

4. Murray v Chardy; toughness rating 0.1

Jeremy will definitely appear and is a confirmed professional tennis player. Beyond that there's not much to say. Do you want cream with that?

My Percntage Odds:

Djokovic 80-20 Berdych
Federer 80-20 Tsonga
Murray 98-2 Chardy
Ferrer 99.5-0.5 Almagro

Ferrer Almagro is the most predictable match in tennis history.

Hapless Nico will turn up and swing his elegant backhand, then fall apart as soon as the going gets tough. Nice draw for Daveed, who is redfining "under the radar" for a top 4 seed.

it really grinds my gears having Almugro this far in a slam. Not only will he get shafted, he will be seen drinking the Rioja with Daveed an hour later. I'm debating if seeing Simon and Monfils pushing for 5 hours is better than watching Almugro net the bh every 2nd point.

bogbrush Almagro might just give Federer a run for his money. Chardy is the surprise package here though and it's difficult to forecast what kind of threat he'll be to Murray.

The draw needed an upset and Chardy obliged dumping out Del Potro to everyone's surprise so can lightning strike twice in the same place?

Chardy is the surprise package here though and it's difficult to forecast what kind of threat he'll be to Murray.

The same level of threat that Roddick posed on clay

like IMBL think you're being generous to Almagro. Come on, hands up whoo gives Almagro a chance of beating Ferrer? anyone? no? no, didn't think so. Also a bit harsh on Chardy. While it's true that the draw has opened up beautifully for Murray Chardy is a good player when on song, has a big serve and an excellent FH, can volley. BH a bit so-so, but his problem is more consistency than shot-making ability IMO, and he's had a really good tournament so far. Don't think he'll beat Murray, but I think 0.1 is harsh.

Other than that I think it's about right: Berdych is playing well (seemingly - haven't seen any of his matches) and though he has a poor record vs Djokovic he has beaten him in a slam before at least. Also over the last few years I would guess he's beaten more top 4 players in slams than any other (since RG 2010 he's beaten Murray once, Djokovic once and Federer twice, pushed Nadal quite hard at the AO last year too), so he knows he can do it. You're right to point out the return of serve as key: Berdych is a good returner and if he can jump on a few return games he might just give himself a chance.

Tsonga is the eternal enigma: he's had success against Federer in the past, including famously that Wimbledon come-back of course. However I'm not sure he's been at his best so far this tournament, and against Federer who's been incredibly consistent so far he can't afford the sort of lapse he showed in round 2 (second set where he went 5-2 down). Not out of the question but I make Federer a decent favourite for this one.

Nothing like a Murray cupcake I have no complaints.

Djokovic and Berdych for me has the high risk factor for an upset. Stan by and large did that section a small favour and probably wore Djokovic down more than people expect. Berdych has remained un-troubled through the draw. The H2H is what evens this match out. Berdych is quite renowned for falling apart.

Toughness rating 9/10

Federer and Tsonga. Well look no further than Wimby 2011. Tsonga has done it before and for once looks pretty focused. Again has made it through without dropping a set. Without doubt Tsonga needs to take the first set.

Toughness rating 8/10

Ferrer and Almagro. Maggy has been serving well this tournament. The last 3 years has seen him bow out at the 4th round and this year has made the QF's. Would love to see him get through, though I think Ferrer will grind him out.

Toughness rating 6/10

Murray and Chardy. Cupcakes. Though bare in mind Chardy done him over last year

Toughness rating 2/10

You can't blame Andy for the fact that Del Potro didn't make it to his seeding position (or in fact either of Andy's last 2 'draw' opponents). The question is can he take advantage in continuing to maintain reserves of energy for the potentially tough SF and final match-ups. The question for Andy may be whether the draw has been too easy and not 'battle-hardened' him enough to take on Federer and Djokovic.

Ferrer v Almagro must be one of the poorest quality quarter finals in a slam of recent years (especially on hard courts) - Ferrer is a very solid and consistent pro and certainly puts the effort in, but his level is really as consistently losing QFs to the big 4, while Almagro is one of those players who maintains a ranking by picking which events to target. DF should be good enough to win quite comfortably.

The other two QFs are similar in a way, in that Berdych and Tsonga are capable of producing the occasional performance that beats the top 4 even at GS level. In both cases, the question is whether they can produce their A+ performances and keep Djoko and Fed off their peak game for long enough to get a result. My suspicion is that Berdych has the better chance, as Djokovic must be a bit fried after his marathon victory over Stan, whiles so far Fed has rolled through a potentially tough loking draw while barely breaking a sweat.

technically Simon was Murray's seeded draw in R4 dummy

Pretty much agree with the OP, though that 0.1 is a bit cheeky, Chardy is not as useless as that. Would be happy if Almagro upset Ferrer but that is so hard to imagine.

Doesn't look like there is much difference between any of them to be honest. H2H records are:

Ferrer 12-0 Almagro
Djokovic 11-1 Berdych (current 9 match winning streak)
Federer 8-3 Tsonga (current 4 match winning streak)
Murray 4-1 Chardy (Chardy won the last match in straights)

Berdych has clearly been the most impressive of the outsiders, closely followed by Chardy who is showing signs of finally backing up his prodigious talent. Tsonga has been solid but is yet another poor returner who will be grist for the Federer serving mill. Almagro has been ok but isn't really of the level to be a hard court slam QFist.

Josiah Maiestas wrote:

Hapless Nico will turn up and swing his elegant backhand, then fall apart as soon as the going gets tough. Nice draw for Daveed, who is redfining "under the radar" for a top 4 seed.

it really grinds my gears having Almugro this far in a slam. Not only will he get shafted, he will be seen drinking the Rioja with Daveed an hour later. I'm debating if seeing Simon and Monfils pushing for 5 hours is better than watching Almugro net the bh every 2nd point.

It may grind your gears JM but it says much about the oposition he has had as it does about Nico..
True I dont give him a snowballs chance in hell of beating Daveed.. but he has done a sight better than some of the would have beens... i.e. the so called "future of tennis"

I thought Andy, whilst giving a fair impression of a man who'd prefer to be elsewhere (i.e. in a SF with one of his rivals) moved nicely through the gears

For me, there is plenty in reserve and the thought of revenge will be all the motivation he needs.

I don't agree with the odds. 4, would be more respectful to Chardy

Born Slippy

You need to fill in the H2H's of the top four ranked players with other possible quarter final opponents for them to have any meaning. Just because Murray has lost to Chardy doesn't mean Federer or Djokovic have. Same goes with other figures.

Anyway there is no point talking about how tough the quarter finals are as we have to pretend they are all equal otherwise somebody might be tempted to say the * word.

I shall put an asterisk by the South American swing

It looks like the winner of the Andy Murray V Roger Federer semi final is going to go on to win the Australian Open as these 2 guys have clearly been the best players of the tournament so far.

banbrotam wrote:I thought Andy, whilst giving a fair impression of a man who'd prefer to be elsewhere (i.e. in a SF with one of his rivals) moved nicely through the gears

For me, there is plenty in reserve and the thought of revenge will be all the motivation he needs.

I don't agree with the odds. 4, would be more respectful to Chardy

On what basis? I don't mean to be disrespectful to Jeremy who hopefully will not have read this thread, but he's not really got any pedigree whatsoever (hence the absence of a seeding). We just saw what happened to the #13 seed today; I think I might be persuaded to upgrade Chardy to 0.35, but no higher.

legendkillarV2 wrote:I shall put an asterisk by the South American swing

You don't need an asterisk on an exhibition tour.

hawkeye wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:I shall put an asterisk by the South American swing

You don't need an asterisk on an exhibition tour.

HE, come now, I have been saying Nadal needs the south american clay court swing for his health and also because they are good tourneys. A couple of ATP 500 pointers is hardly an exhibition tour. Although Nadal going to South America will most likely impact that rankings of Ferrer and particularly Almagro. In the last few years that is where almagro has gotten most of his points so unless Nico does better this year on the hardcourts he could slip down in the rankings.

I think it was a brilliant and long overdue move to play in South America. It is a big a growing market as well and those events can use the extra exposure.

I think Fed and Djoko have the toughest quarters, almagro is going to get rolled and Chardy as well. Although both are quality players they are just very inconsistent players who go on lengthy walkabouts over the course of a match.

Murray's biggest danger is being undercooked. If Chardy comes out swinging then Murray may have to go to a gear he hasn't had to yet. Lets be honest, Murray has had a series of training sessions so far. He should come through of course, but if I was Chardy I'd be hoping to catch him cold.

The Ferrer match is fairly predictable, and I fancy Roger and Novak to come through fairly comfortably. Maybe even straight sets for both. Novak owns Berdy and Roger is playing really well.

So Murray has the best draw, and yet may be the one I fancy most to drop a set.... Sometimes I don't understand my own logic!

Danny, you are right sometimes you can have a too easy a trip in the early rounds and all of sudden you find yourself in a dogfight when you least expect. Djokovic was almost the victim of that against an inspired wawrinka. I just don't see it happening though against Chardy. Chardy even in the matches he has won just seems to go through wild swing of quality, kind of like James blake. He unloads on forehands and returns and hits bombs that make you say wow. Then he misses half a dozen routine balls and looks like he should be playing the futures or challengers and not the ATP tour. A very enigmatic but explosive player. I just don't think he can consistently threaten murray for a 5 set match.

Yeah I fancy him to come through socal, but I actually think he may drop the first set.... Which ultimately wouldn't be a bad thing. I would be really worried if it turns into another training session, as Roger has had to play really well to get here and is in the zone.

An undercooked Murray v an in the zone Federer? I know where I'd have my money. I've said it on a few articles now, an easy draw is not always a blessing.

The ease of the draw of course is relative all these guys at the latter stages of a draw can play and if you are off can put you out for the most part regardless of who the top seeds are. I think Murray looks scarey good right now Danny, no offense but as a Djoko fan I am hoping for Roger as opposed to Andy in the final if Novak get pull through the next two rounds.

No offence taken, though I must admit I'm amazed a Novak fan would fear Andy more than Roger at the moment. Is that based on their clashes last season? It can't be based on their AO form so far as Roger has been much the better player.

I suppose Novak does generally appear a little more comfortable with the hitting contest that it always turns into with Roger... As opposed to the mix that Murray brings. But still, if I was a Novak fan I'd rather Federer. I think this is the best Roger has played in his opening 4 matches of a slam for a good few years.

http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/1249432/djokovic-calls-on-fitness-during-epic-match/?src=rss

I just think this surface gives Novak the edge over Roger favors Novak's edge in returning, defending, and in speed Danny. On grass I would not want to play fed over Murray, and on clay I would rather play Murray than federer. It is a matter of the surface more than a diss or compliment to either guy, just my view of which player is more dangerous on a particular surface.

I think two QF's are predictable i.e Murray will beat Chardy and Ferrer will beat Almagro. The other two are anyone's to win.

I do not know why people up here seem to think that Djokovic is not in a position to win this tournament. He had a bad round and yes he got lucky but he hung in there and turned things around. He could go onto to win the tournament without dropping a set from hereon in. Federer was 2 points away from losing 3 times in the third round at Wimbledon, had back problems and to everyone's surprise won.

I think Djoko will win easily and I would not be surprised if he did it in 3 tight sets. Berdych seems to fail vs the top guys except when he plays Federer. Tsonga is playing very well, a little too well for my liking and I think that is the most dangerous match up of the QF's. Fed's been cruising but you cannot judge where his game is at until he plays someone like Tsonga who has the ability. Still amazing to think he is the only player in the draw not to have been broken but I expect that to change vs Tsonga.

This title is a toss up between Murray/Djokovic. Would love Federer to amaze by winning but its a bit of a tall order to except him to go through Tsonga then Murray and Djokovic. That said let's hope he gets some good fortune along the way

I put Novak as my favourite before the tournament, and I still think he is. I had Andy and Roger joint second favourites, but right now I would put Roger slightly ahead. I'm amazed people keep writing him off and assume a Murray v Novak final.

Roger has looked superb in all his matches, Murray has looked like he's had ADD at times! Roger beat Andy the last time they played and has a 3-0 slam record against him. When Roger plays this well, he beats everyone (apart from Rafa because of the high BH technical issue).

Maybe some Fed fans are being deliberately pessimistic to avoid disappointment... Maybe I am from a Murray perspective, although not consciously.... But for me Roger would be favourite if they meet in the semi.

Hello



Oh minions..

I agree with Danny.

Fed is playing well, he starts as marginal favourite against Murray if the two are to meet.

Either of Murray/Fed vs Djokovic is 50-50 for me.

I always have faith in the greatest, most talented player ever to pick up a racquet. How could I not? He's done it so many times before.



emancipator

This isn't Chile Rotapicname, Lord Rafito is not playing.

Well, well, well... El Mugro is already set and a break up with 6-4 5-3... An upset on cards?

Wow, it was heading for a straight set 6-4 6-4 6-4 for Almagro but not to be...

He has managed to lose third 7-5 after being up 5-4 serving for it...

If he loses from here it would really be a and

Good comeback from Nico after a let-down in the third... Up a break in 4th 2*-1...

Ferrer not a happy bunny at all...

A bit of roller-coaster ride in 4th here.. 2-2.

And that's that.. Sorry for doubting you BB...

So - was Ferrer v Almagro the most predictable match in history?

I think Maggy forgot to get Ferrer a christmas present and he comes up trumps with a late pressie

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EG4E7O5kLc

This is a good summary of the match. When Almagro served for the match, 2 of the points were baseline winners from Ferrer so it probably wasn't a choke. They didn't show the others.

Almagro hit 75 unforced errors though in the whole match.

Which one of the three times he served for the match are you referring to HB? I think that was one of the all-time great chokes.

Maybe Almagro can take revenge in Viña del Mar

JuliusHMarx wrote:So - was Ferrer v Almagro the most predictable match in history?

A very valid rhetorical question.

Shades perhaps of last year's Olympic SF, ahead of which a (small) number of posters tried to convince us that Delpo "hasn't got a prayer" because he allegedly couldn't move on grass. Not a prayer, we were assured. Yet his praying kept him on court for 4.5 hours - and against arguably the best grass player in history.

I really don't like the way in which so many players - especially those who have already shown the necessary talent & ability to reach the upper echelons of one of today's most gruelling sports - are so often dismissed ahead of high profile matches.

There is, of course, every justification in making one player a heavy favourite over another based on past records and achievement. But comments like "guaranteed" and "0.5%" chance are simply disrespectful. Quite apart from which, this takes no account of the various occasions in tennis history when non-stellar names have pushed their more celebrated contemporaries to the limit - or even come out on top.

I sense sometimes that when predictions are couched in cast iron terms that there might be a veiled agenda. But either way, maybe just a little more credit where credit is due please ......?

The most predictable match in tennis history.
When Almagro was 6-4 6-4 5-4 up my friend said he though Almagro might win.
I laughed.

Of the two above posts, I think lags nailed it and IMBL failed it.

IMBL - I hate to say that there's more than a whiff of post-match smugness in your rejoinder, even if perhaps that was not your intention.

You have been totally vindicated - in terms of the end result - in a number of recent very confident (albeit hardly brave) predictions. So all credit for calling it right.

But assertions such as not a prayer, 0.5% chance, guaranteed etc etc, indicate to me that you firmly believed that the opposition concerned (Delpo at Olympics, Wawrinka, Almagro here at AO) was in each case incapable of putting up any serious fight or pushing the big guy all the way. And I mean, ALL the way.

With regard to those three specific cases : Any misgivings or retraction at all ?

The fact remains that Almagro could not pull the trigger even when Ferrer clearly had an off-day.

Quite different from the Wawrinka-Djokovic match which was an all-time classic of extremely high level.

In both cases, these guys missed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to go deep at a Slam. Almagro was presented with a great chance and didn't take it, Wawrinka created a great chance himself but just fell short.

It Must Be Love wrote:The most predictable match in tennis history.
When Almagro was 6-4 6-4 5-4 up my friend said he though Almagro might win.
I laughed.

You just laughed I made a fortune out of it, bet $50 on Ferrer when he was 4-5 down in the 3rd set and notched up $300.

Its not I didn't have respect for Almagro, but I believed what Ferrer can do and he did what I expected of him never say die.

$300 Canadian? Isn't that about £12?

prostaff85 wrote:The fact remains that Almagro could not pull the trigger even when Ferrer clearly had an off-day.

Quite different from the Wawrinka-Djokovic match which was an all-time classic of extremely high level.

In both cases, these guys missed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to go deep at a Slam. Almagro was presented with a great chance and didn't take it, Wawrinka created a great chance himself but just fell short.

I don't agree Ferrer had an off day, I watched the match it was very high quality, both players where nervous when they were serving but at the same time both players gave everything when they were down, in my view one of the most entertaining matches of Ferrer I have watched. In terms of quality as well as excitement this match in my view stood up to Wawrinka-Djoko encounter.

While Almagro could not close out Ferrer never let him close out a similar case of Stan- Djoko.

Credit is due for Almagro- Ferrer match the same way as Stan-Djoko match.

IC

Lags, these are the three matches I have said I am 99%+.
Of course I can never be 100% sure due to freak injury etc.
Fed vs Del Potro- Fed wins
Fed vs Tomic- Fed wins
Ferrer vs Almagro- Ferrer wins

If I am so sure that I bet on it, and I lose money, the betting company wins. It's not disrespectful to anyone.