Final Showdown Murray vs Djokovoic

Everything is going by the plan, it was very much anticipated Murray - Djoko finals, however some might disagree majority including bookies expected it. In my view Murray is the form horse of the tournament even ahead of Djoko right now. Lets do Swot analysis

Murray perspective -

Strengths -
New Aggressive play [was able to stand with Fed]
Backhand at its full flow
Faced a Sterner opponent in semi's
Best Wheels
New found belief to beat top dogs.
Learning to be calm under pressure

Weakness
Mid Match focus lapse

Opportunities
To become No.1 later this year
Multiple GS Achivement

Threats
Djoko's form and favorite turf

Djokovic's perspective -

Strength
Complete game
Favorite turf
Knows opponents game better than his opponent knows of his game.
Better player under pressure

Weakness -
Haven't had a tougher test outside Stan [will be tested for sure by Murray]

Opportunities -
First player in open era to win AO 3 times in a row
Cling on to No.1 with Iron fist.

Threats -
Opponent's belief
Pressure to win as he starts heavy favorite

I predicted Murray to win USO even before the start of USO [ not bragging , but just wanna say I stick to my analysis and portray what my head says more than my heart], I cast Murray as the favourite to win the title at 65-35 % , I always love to give high percentage rather than sticking my neck and say its too close to predict.

Djoko's form is very scary but the pressure is on him to win and that will favour Murray this time around, I would be pleasently surprised if Murray doesn't win come Sunday. Whats your view guys?

Not a clue, i'll shade on Djokovic, but with no confidence, wouldnt even put a pound on it.

falzy21 wrote:Not a clue, i'll shade on Djokovic, but with no confidence, wouldnt even put a pound on it.

I will put some money on Murray if he gets some good odds, lemme check the odds at Bet 365

Conditions will matter; Murray wants it cool and if possible, awkward.

I think Murray can run Djokovic down, weirdly enough.

Bet 365 casts Nole as 63% favorite over Murray , more or less similar to my prediction but the opposite name.

Murray to win - 2.50 times the money
Djoko to win - 1.57 times the money.

I think today's long match plus an extra days rest edges it to Novak. Yes Murray will be full of self belief after today, but if it turns into a physical war (highly likely looking at their 2012 matches) then Novak should in theory have a bit more energy.

Good article IC, but I am curious about one line of it...

"(Djokovic) Knows opponents game better than his opponent knows of his game."

I'm interested to hear why you think that.

I think Murray will win it in 4 (and I don't care if I'm wrong because over the past few years Novak has become pretty much my 2nd favourite male player). Aside from the match v Ferrer, Djokovic has not looked that great. I'm not saying he's played poorly though at all but he hasn't really shown his A game and has looked "off" at times.

I think it will be a close match, but I think Murray will squeak it in 4, especially if he gives Novak's serve the treatment.

Prediction: Over 10 breaks of serve in the match.

I actually think Andy will do. Strangely, I've never been felt so confident.

We also forget, that there is a bit of pressure on Nole

Mind you. Andy doesn't want a 1 in 6 around his neck

I've never felt more relaxed before a Novak final.

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion by any stretch but everything that I would hope for is in place. Good, bordering on excellent form, a focused mind, plenty of recovery time and an opponent who went 5 sets in the later semi final.

Andy as an opponent scares me though. He has a confidence and presence on the court now and I know that he won't wilt as many people do under Novak's game.

I see it as maybe 55/45 in Novak's favour, rising to 60/40 if wins the first set.

Danny_1982 wrote:

"(Djokovic) Knows opponents game better than his opponent knows of his game."

Murray like Federer I see as more skilled than Djoko, so bascially he doesn't read opponents game and just play his game win or lose, Djoko on the other hand is more smarter, he plays Nadal the Nadal way, Federer the Federer way and Murray the Murray way, he has different game for different opponents, and he knows what exactly he needs to bring to down Murray. Murray on the other hand will try to use all his skills to down the opponent than playing a different game specifically for Djoko.

Just my thought

Btw Thx for the compliments Danny

65/35 Djokovic looks right to me. His form is better, and he seems in better shape, and he has so much left in the tank.

HM Murdoch wrote:I've never felt more relaxed before a Novak final.

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion by any stretch but everything that I would hope for is in place. Good, bordering on excellent form, a focused mind, plenty of recovery time and an opponent who went 5 sets in the later semi final.

Andy as an opponent scares me though. He has a confidence and presence on the court now and I know that he won't wilt as many people do under Novak's game.

I see it as maybe 55/45 in Novak's favour, rising to 60/40 if wins the first set.

More or less similar to what bookies feel.

@ Banbro, I more or less see the upcoming game exactly the same way as your comment.

i pick Djokovic to win in four. The human machine is more suited for the slow hc. i would be pleased if it go otherwise.

Interesting IC, as I actually see it the other way.

They said a good comment on Eurosport during the match about Murray and Djokovic: "Murray has many dimensions, many ways to play. Novak is actually quite one demensional, although what a dimension it is".

I think they both know what each other can do equally... But Murray is more unpredictable in terms of what he actually will do.

What we both agree is Murray is more skilled compared to Djoko but what we disagree or contrast is the way the game plan is adopted for different player by them, thats nice, something similar and something contrasting.

Indeed IC, indeed.

By the way, the "one dimension" thing is not an insult to Novak, before any Novak fans go crazy at Eurosport. Far from it, they meant it very much in the positive sense, and I agree with it. Novak is an unbelievable player and worthy world no.1 in my opinion.

Agreed. I am not a Novak fan but no body can deny he worked his way to the top, would love to see him get replaced by Andy but that won't be a mean feat.

Btw Novak-Andy thread is not sparking like Fed-Murray thread inspite of this being finals

Because the majority of people here are Federer fans and the majority of those are being bitter and sulking

I'm looking forward to it actually. I don't care what people say about the surfaces, this is much better than Sampras v Ivanisevic.

If Murray serves like he did against Federer where for the first set or so he had around a 70% odd of first serves in, Murray will win the Final in 3-4 sets.

I'm going with Andy. Favourite player.

I'm amazed that twice as many people have gone for Murray so far!

World number 1, two time defending champion, in form, rested, won both their encounters since USO... what does Novak have to do to be the favourite?!

I shall go with Murray.

I just think how in the last 2 rounds he has started to click. Yes granted Djokovic appears to have played the stronger through the rounds.

One thing is certain is that they will bring their A game to the court.

If you go back to the US Open encounter Djokovic was constrained by the conditions and unable to judge when to attack and when not to. I think the final will prove an equal playing field.

Murray should try and set the tone as and when he can. If he serves like he did today, fantastic.

I do wonder will any of them come to the net to keep the other guessing

It's interesting to hear some Novak fans are relaxed, only last year Novak held 3 of the 4 slams at this point and despite saying after the USO'11 that Djokovic couldn't repeat his slam haul of 2011, not many if any Novak fans (to be fair, there arn't many on here) took heed and he ended up winning only the Aussie Open, (in 2012) his last fiefdom (the one's he's won the most). For Djokovic to lose in this final would mean he'd have no current slams to his name and let's not forget, he's 25, not 30 so this shouldn't be the case. That's not to say it's a massive setback, but out of all the slams, the Aussie Open is where he's done best so losing both hardcourt slams in quick succession suggests he's having trouble dealing with the Murray threat just like Nadal had trouble dealing with the Djoko threat but the only difference is Nadal saved his own personal fiefdom, Djokovic might not.

Anyway, regarding the final, I think Murray will win, beating Federer is no small thing and now he's beaten him not only in ATP 1000 tournaments, but in a slam too. Murray's also had a lot of recent exposure at the highest echelons of the game (slam finals + Olympic final) and has come out winning these matches. It could be an epic like last year but I think it'll be 4 tough sets. My main question is if Djokovic can't win at best surface/slam, how easily will be win on the others? More on the line for Djokovic than for Murray in my view.

HM Murdoch wrote:I'm amazed that twice as many people have gone for Murray so far!

World number 1, two time defending champion, in form, rested, won both their encounters since USO... what does Novak have to do to be the favourite?!

Novak is the bookies favourite HM. But there's way more Murray fans on here than Novak.

For what it's worth I think Novak should be, and deserves to be, favourite for the title.

Gone with Murray but would not be surprised by either player winning. Should be a good match

HM Murdoch wrote:I'm amazed that twice as many people have gone for Murray so far!

World number 1, two time defending champion, in form, rested, won both their encounters since USO... what does Novak have to do to be the favourite?!

Thing is HM like yourself who has an interest in Novak, many on here do with Murray myself included. If you asked me last week I would've said Djokovic all week long. However, Andy has finally stepped up and I do think he can take Novak out. Andy won't make the errors Ferrer did and won't break down physically like Stan did.

It is an intriguing contest to say the least. With the threat of heavy rain nearby Melbourne could mean an indoor final which makes it even more interesting

HM Murdoch wrote:I'm amazed that twice as many people have gone for Murray so far!

World number 1, two time defending champion, in form, rested, won both their encounters since USO... what does Novak have to do to be the favourite?!

Novak does deserve to be the favourite as Danny said but I think a quicker surface benefits Murray over Djokovic.

Gone with Novak, I think it'll be a tight match and that he's fractionally more focused than Murray during the key moments. I hope it's a good match with both players looking to exploit the angles and display good point construction, rather than simply looking to blast each other off the court.

IC, nice opening post but two things quickly - you think Murray is quicker than Novak? And also, you think that Novak has a complete game? I'm honestly not sure on the first one, but I do disagree with the second point. I would say that at the baseline, he's certainly the complete player, however!

May the best man win, chaps - history beckons!

Nobody seems to factor in the way Ferrer was totally destroyed by Novak. I know that Ferrer's style of play suits Djokovic down to the ground but could Andy have done likewise?

Federer today was OK but by his peak standards of yesteryear pretty poor. Novak would have beaten him in 3/4 sets. Andy should have beaten him in 4 but let him off the hook to go to a deciding set.

Put those factors together and you come to the inescapable conclusion that Djokovic will wim the 2013 AO title probably in 4 sets.

Novak is very close to a complete player, but there are some things that he doesn't do that well, like with all players.

He doesn't have a particularly great slice. Not got much bite or variety. Also he doesn't deal with a slice coming his way either. And like most players, different paces and spins can extract errors from him. He looked awesome against Ferrer, but Ferrer essentially plays the same shot over and over again. Perfect for Novak.

Novak doesn't even need to think against him, he can play on autopilot! He won't get that luxury against Andy of course.

As for Andy v Novak in terms of the fastest... Now that's a tough one. I saw a piece during the US open where Tsonga and Berdych were interviewed, and both said Murray was definitely fastest on tour... But I'm not so sure. It's real close.

Novak is the best retriever though. Murray is phenomenal but novak is elastic. He gets to everything!

It's going to be close but I think Novak will take the win this time. Have a feeling though that if murray brings his "A"game, it could be an absolute cracker and will definitely be better than doing my revision!

Whilst Murray's serve was excellent today, the thing that's different between Federer and Djokovic is - Federer blocks the return if serve back. Whereas Djokovic can return any serve. He's the toughest player to ace as well.

That's where the match will be decided. Murray's serve vs Djokovic return of serve

luciusmann wrote:It's interesting to hear some Novak fans are relaxed... For Djokovic to lose in this final would mean he'd have no current slams to his name and let's not forget, he's 25, not 30 so this shouldn't be the case.

Could equally argue that if Murray loses, he's the guy who only won 1 out of 6 finals. He's 25, not 30, so this shouldn't be the case.

luciusmann wrote:Anyway, regarding the final, I think Murray will win, beating Federer is no small thing and now he's beaten him not only in ATP 1000 tournaments, but in a slam too.

This trumps Djokovic's 5 slam victories over Federer?

Pick whoever as favourite, but this seemed like some surprising reasoning.

Danny_1982 wrote:Novak is very close to a complete player, but there are some things that he doesn't do that well, like with all players.

He doesn't have a particularly great slice. Not got much bite or variety. Also he doesn't deal with a slice coming his way either. And like most players, different paces and spins can extract errors from him. He looked awesome against Ferrer, but Ferrer essentially plays the same shot over and over again. Perfect for Novak.

Thanks Danny, nice assessment. I truly don't think that there's such thing as the complete player (and wasn't attacking Novak as a result), but is he the closest thing that the modern game has? I think at this moment in time, perhaps Murray has more shots but executes less effectively, so it's a tough one. Federer's got all the shots, but lacks consistency these days and has a weakness in his backhand. I definitely concur that Novak's slice play, both defensively and offensively, needs work - and he is tactically wanting at times when drawn out of his comfort zone, which is admittedly very difficult to do. But the guy's an absolute machine in terms of groundstrokes, it's staggering to witness.

I also very much enjoy watching him serve, and I'm not sure why that is...

Silver wrote:

Danny_1982 wrote:Novak is very close to a complete player, but there are some things that he doesn't do that well, like with all players.

He doesn't have a particularly great slice. Not got much bite or variety. Also he doesn't deal with a slice coming his way either. And like most players, different paces and spins can extract errors from him. He looked awesome against Ferrer, but Ferrer essentially plays the same shot over and over again. Perfect for Novak.

Thanks Danny, nice assessment. I truly don't think that there's such thing as the complete player (and wasn't attacking Novak as a result), but is he the closest thing that the modern game has? I think at this moment in time, perhaps Murray has more shots but executes less effectively, so it's a tough one. Federer's got all the shots, but lacks consistency these days and has a weakness in his backhand. I definitely concur that Novak's slice play, both defensively and offensively, needs work - and he is tactically wanting at times when drawn out of his comfort zone, which is admittedly very difficult to do. But the guy's an absolute machine in terms of groundstrokes, it's staggering to witness.

I also very much enjoy watching him serve, and I'm not sure why that is...

Agree with all that silver.

HM Murdoch wrote:

luciusmann wrote:It's interesting to hear some Novak fans are relaxed... For Djokovic to lose in this final would mean he'd have no current slams to his name and let's not forget, he's 25, not 30 so this shouldn't be the case.

Could equally argue that if Murray loses, he's the guy who only won 1 out of 6 finals. He's 25, not 30, so this shouldn't be the case.

luciusmann wrote:Anyway, regarding the final, I think Murray will win, beating Federer is no small thing and now he's beaten him not only in ATP 1000 tournaments, but in a slam too.

This trumps Djokovic's 5 slam victories over Federer?

Pick whoever as favourite, but this seemed like some surprising reasoning.

I don't see your reasoning, who was saying Murray was competing with Djokovic in the slam count race? Not me. It's been Djokovic fans who's been saying he's a great yet in his peak years he may hold no current slams, not true of Federer, Nadal or Sampras. Also, as has been pointed out in the press and elsewhere, no player has won their maiden slam and gone on to win the next grand slam tournament, that includes Federer and every other player in the open era.

Again, I didn't say Djokovic's 5 slam victories over Fed is trumped by Murray's 1. What I was pointing out was that Murray's win over Fed has finally come and come more recently (today) than Djokovic's win over Federer (8 months ago and on Federer's weakest surface). Murray, unlike Djokovic, has a positive H2H against Federer however, there's no doubt that because of Djokovic's greater success at beating Federer in slams, he has more than Murray.

The reasoning is simple though (if you're still unsure), it's Murray's achievement not just in beating Fed today but also in actually winning a slam now and defeating the very player he faces on Sunday, on the very same surface that makes me think Murray can do it. You can bring up Djokovic's victories of yesteryear over Federer in the slams but Murray has proven he can beat Djokovic in a slam. Of course if Murray can beat Djokovic at the Aussie Open, what it means is that Murray can defeat Djokovic on probably any surface now, which means that just like Federer (should Djokovic lose on Sunday) from now on, Djokovic will be reliant on the mercy of the draw if he's to stand a chance of winning, what a long time a year may have been for Djokovic.

Silver wrote: I think at this moment in time, perhaps Murray has more shots but executes less effectively

Is this not a contradiction though? If he's not executing them effectively, then he doesn't have the shot?

The Special Juan wrote:Because the majority of people here are Federer fans and the majority of those are being bitter and sulking

I'm looking forward to it actually. I don't care what people say about the surfaces, this is much better than Sampras v Ivanisevic.

Can't agree more.

luciusmann wrote:It's interesting to hear some Novak fans are relaxed, only last year Novak held 3 of the 4 slams at this point and despite saying after the USO'11 that Djokovic couldn't repeat his slam haul of 2011, not many if any Novak fans (to be fair, there arn't many on here) took heed and he ended up winning only the Aussie Open, (in 2012) his last fiefdom (the one's he's won the most). For Djokovic to lose in this final would mean he'd have no current slams to his name and let's not forget, he's 25, not 30 so this shouldn't be the case. That's not to say it's a massive setback, but out of all the slams, the Aussie Open is where he's done best so losing both hardcourt slams in quick succession suggests he's having trouble dealing with the Murray threat just like Nadal had trouble dealing with the Djoko threat but the only difference is Nadal saved his own personal fiefdom, Djokovic might not.

Anyway, regarding the final, I think Murray will win, beating Federer is no small thing and now he's beaten him not only in ATP 1000 tournaments, but in a slam too. Murray's also had a lot of recent exposure at the highest echelons of the game (slam finals + Olympic final) and has come out winning these matches. It could be an epic like last year but I think it'll be 4 tough sets. My main question is if Djokovic can't win at best surface/slam, how easily will be win on the others? More on the line for Djokovic than for Murray in my view.

Perfectly summed up , thats why pressure will ride high on Djoko, coz if he lose the battle tomorrow the media will Hype Murray as the biggest thing to happen for tennis outside Tennis balls

Cheers Danny

HM Murdoch wrote:

Silver wrote: I think at this moment in time, perhaps Murray has more shots but executes less effectively

Is this not a contradiction though? If he's not executing them effectively, then he doesn't have the shot?

I suppose that I meant he executes less effectively than Novak on specific shots that they're both good at - for example, they both have a great crosscourt forehand but Nole's is the superior shot in my mind. I think that Murray has slightly more variety, but isn't as effective on the bread-and-butter stuff, despite being good at it initially and therefore possessing the shots. Sorry for the confusion HM, I still feel I haven't explained it that well!

Danny_1982 wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:I'm amazed that twice as many people have gone for Murray so far!

World number 1, two time defending champion, in form, rested, won both their encounters since USO... what does Novak have to do to be the favourite?!

Novak is the bookies favourite HM. But there's way more Murray fans on here than Novak.

For what it's worth I think Novak should be, and deserves to be, favourite for the title.

Outside Socal and Murdoch I don't remember an outright Djoko fan here, surprisingly Socal as remained calm, may be pre-match tensions, Socal bro take it easy, your man still on scary form.

I think I follow you now, Silver.

I probably see it in a similar way. I'd say Novak tends to use a smaller repertoire of shots but plays all those shots to a very high level.

Andy has a wider repertoire but is perhaps behind Novak on the shots they have in common.

Is that about right?

Yes, dead on the money. Thank you for summing it up more succinctly than I could

invisiblecoolers wrote:Outside Socal and Murdoch I don't remember an outright Djoko fan here, surprisingly Socal as remained calm, may be pre-match tensions, Socal bro take it easy, your man still on scary form.

Ha! Yes, there aren't many of us. I'm sure we'll hear from Socal before the weekend is done!

Silver wrote:Gone with Novak, I think it'll be a tight match and that he's fractionally more focused than Murray during the key moments. I hope it's a good match with both players looking to exploit the angles and display good point construction, rather than simply looking to blast each other off the court.

IC, nice opening post but two things quickly - you think Murray is quicker than Novak? And also, you think that Novak has a complete game? I'm honestly not sure on the first one, but I do disagree with the second point. I would say that at the baseline, he's certainly the complete player, however!

May the best man win, chaps - history beckons!

Complete player in the sense, he is very good at attack as well as defense, got a great return, backhand, forehand, and he can volley too as well.

Btw Thx Silver for the compliments

Perhaps why this match up is so interesting is that both players are always looking for areas of their games to tweak and improve so there is always an uncertainty of where they are at in terms of improvement.

It is a match that could go either way but a match that Andy is now going to be pumped full of confidence for. How important the US Open Final will be on both players mindset I am not sure. Murray knows he can beat Novak in a slam so that will help but conversely will Djokovic still be smarting and out for revenge? It should be a cracker though sadly won't be able to watch it - I will be working.

CaledonianCraig wrote: It should be a cracker though sadly won't be able to watch it - I will be working.

Come on just accept it that you don't have any more nails to bite

invisiblecoolers wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote: It should be a cracker though sadly won't be able to watch it - I will be working.

Come on just accept it that you don't have any more nails to bite

I really wish that was the case ic. Will set my Tivo box to record it.

Murray is the hot favourite by 606v2, does this simply mean we have more Muzza supporters or do we really believe Muzza will pull this one off?

invisiblecoolers wrote:Murray is the hot favourite by 606v2, does this simply mean we have more Muzza supporters or do we really believe Muzza will pull this one off?

The big key is that Andy believes. We saw today the new Murray with a re-inforced mental strength and that is a great addition to his game. I think that rattled Roger a bit and in his post-match conference he alludes to that and sounded like he was waiting for Andy to crack again or let out his frustrations but he got nothing and that pulled him through to the win. Novak's great strength is self-belief and confidence but I am pretty sure he'll be a little apprehensive as Andy's mental side of the game now is so much improved.