Points Spy - Miami

by Cogen Mon 18 Mar 2013, 7:55 pm

First topic message reminder :

The table for Miami is now available HERE!

Or, if you don't want to visit the website, you can take a look at this much uglier table. Wink

Live Rank	Orig Rank	Player	Orig Points	Drop Points	Gain Points	Live Points	Live Movement	Current Status	Next Opponent
1	1	N. Djokovic [SRB]	13280	1000	90	12370		Eliminated - R16
2	3	A. Murray [GBR]	8350	600	1000	8750	Up 1	Champion
3	2	R. Federer [SUI]	8715	45	0	8670	Down 1	Did Not Play
4	5	D. Ferrer [ESP]	6630	180	600	7050	Up 1	Eliminated - Final
5	4	R. Nadal [ESP]	6745	360	0	6385	Down 1	Did Not Play
6	6	T. Berdych [CZE]	5010	45	180	5145		Eliminated - QF
7	7	J. Del Potro [ARG]	4830	90	10	4750		Eliminated - R64
8	8	J. Tsonga [FRA]	3750	180	90	3660		Eliminated - R16
9	10	R. Gasquet [FRA]	2960	90	360	3230	Up 1	Eliminated - SF
10	9	J. Tipsarevic [SRB]	3090	180	90	3000	Down 1	Eliminated - R16
11	11	M. Cilic [CRO]	2570	45	180	2705		Eliminated - QF
12	12	N. Almagro [ESP]	2435	90	90	2435		Eliminated - R16
13	13	G. Simon [FRA]	2300	90	180	2390		Eliminated - QF
14	18	T. Haas [GER]	1925	25	360	2260	Up 4	Eliminated - SF
15	15	K. Nishikori [JPN]	2135	90	90	2135		Eliminated - R16
16	16	M. Raonic [CAN]	2095	45	45	2095		Eliminated - R32
17	17	S. Wawrinka [SUI]	1960	0	0	1960		Did Not Play
18	19	A. Seppi [ITA]	1785	10	90	1865	Up 1	Eliminated - R16
19	14	J. Monaco [ARG]	2185	360	10	1835	Down 5	Eliminated - R64
20	20	S. Querrey [USA]	1760	25	90	1825		Eliminated - R16
		Selected Others:
35	42	J. Melzer [AUT]	940	45	180	1075	Up 7	Eliminated - QF
42	33	M. Fish [USA]	1125	180	0	945	Down 9	Did Not Play
52	61	A. Ramos [ESP]	765	45	90	810	Up 9	Eliminated - R16

by CaledonianCraig Tue 02 Apr 2013, 8:59 am

Born Slippy wrote:
Cogen wrote:As you can see on the chart above Federer did not play the start of the clay season last year. So, assuming he plays this year, he only really has to match Murray round-for-round and he'll probably move back up to number 2.

Madrid will be the big test though, where Federer won the title and has 1,000pts to defend, and Murray did not play. That is the tournament which could book Murray into the #2 spot for the French Open.

Federer is not playing MC. Consequently, I don't see that he has much chance to gain on Murray at all, given it seems highly unlikely he will improve on the 1360 points from Rome/Madrid last year.

Well Roger never played Monte Carlo last year so he will not be losing any points. Andy Murray reached the quartwr-finals last year so will need to at least repeat that to avoid dropping points.

by prostaff85 Tue 02 Apr 2013, 9:40 am

When looking at the points still valid when Roland Garros starts, Murray is currently 1,080 points ahead of Federer.

Given the fact that Federer plays only Madrid and Rome, he would probably need to win both to reclaim the #2 position. Not possible IMHO.

This means Murray is sure to avoid Djokovic in the RG draw, and even has a chance to avoid Federer and Nadal as well! Are we all looking forward to a Murray-Ferrer semi in Paris, 9-7 in the fifth?! Very Happy

by Cogen Tue 02 Apr 2013, 1:14 pm

Born Slippy wrote:Federer is not playing MC.

Ok, thanks.

Federer really is getting old and lazy, missing two Masters tournaments in a row! Laugh

Can't blame him though. Must be tough to find the strength and motivation to keep up the grind all year, when you've already achieved so much, and are worth god knows how many hundreds of millions!

by lydian Tue 02 Apr 2013, 3:57 pm

It's not inconceivable (although low%) that Nadal and Federer go into RG as 5th and 6th seeds if DP can have a very good clay season and Roger goes out early a few times. They'd then be on opposite sides of draw from each other and a nightmare for the top 4 to face in quarter finals! More likely Nadal will be the sole dangerous floater though.

by LuvSports! Tue 02 Apr 2013, 4:09 pm

speaking of floaters, I think it is time do to a bit of reading Wink

by lydian Tue 02 Apr 2013, 4:15 pm

by bogbrush Tue 02 Apr 2013, 4:45 pm

prostaff85 wrote:When looking at the points still valid when Roland Garros starts, Murray is currently 1,080 points ahead of Federer.

Given the fact that Federer plays only Madrid and Rome, he would probably need to win both to reclaim the #2 position. Not possible IMHO.

This means Murray is sure to avoid Djokovic in the RG draw, and even has a chance to avoid Federer and Nadal as well! Are we all looking forward to a Murray-Ferrer semi in Paris, 9-7 in the fifth?!

I doubt David would be pushed that far.

by hawkeye Tue 02 Apr 2013, 5:15 pm

prostaff85 wrote:When looking at the points still valid when Roland Garros starts, Murray is currently 1,080 points ahead of Federer.

Given the fact that Federer plays only Madrid and Rome, he would probably need to win both to reclaim the #2 position. Not possible IMHO.

This means Murray is sure to avoid Djokovic in the RG draw, and even has a chance to avoid Federer and Nadal as well! Are we all looking forward to a Murray-Ferrer semi in Paris, 9-7 in the fifth?!

It is also possible that Nadal would be drawn on Murray's side with Ferrer in the semi's and Djokovic would get Federer. It would be just like old times. Fingers crossed. I'd be happy with a Nadal/Djokovic final and delighted with a Nadal/Federer final and so would the sponsers Wink

or for conspiracy theorists Cool

by lydian Tue 02 Apr 2013, 6:08 pm

prostaff85 wrote:Are we all looking forward to a Murray-Ferrer semi in Paris, 9-7 in the fifth?!

Er...no. If you gave me that, watching Granollers or a night out with Mona Barthel I'd scream "Hobson's Choice!".

Chances of missing Nadal, Djokovic and Federer in the draw are relatively small...however, he has to get to the Quarters first.

by The Special Juan Tue 02 Apr 2013, 6:16 pm

It doesn't really matter. Murray will never win the French Open so getting neither or both of Nadal and Federer in his half means nothing.

And lydian, nice reference to Barthel. She gives me nightmares.

by Cogen Tue 02 Apr 2013, 6:18 pm

Players always say "I don't like to look any further ahead than my next match", but you can guarantee if Nadal is still #5 by the French Open, the top 4 will be checking the draw to see who was the unlucky bugger who got Nadal in the QF.

If the rankings stay like they are right now, Djokovic and Murray each have a:
37.5% chance of being the only "Big 4" player in their half. (VERY GOOD)
12.5% chance of having both Federer and Nadal in their direct path. (VERY BAD)

by Cogen Tue 02 Apr 2013, 6:23 pm

The Special Juan wrote:It doesn't really matter. Murray will never win the French Open so getting neither or both of Nadal and Federer in his half means nothing.

Disagree with you there. Agree it is highly unlikely Murray will ever win the French Open, but I definitely don't think the draw "means nothing".

If Murray avoids all the other "Big 4" guys in his half, he has a shot a reaching the final. Still a very tough shot, granted, and you'd probably make Ferrer odds on favourite for the final, but he'd have a shot. And reaching the final is a very big deal in terms of the ranking situation if he wants to become world #1. Nearly a thousand extra points for losing in the final vs being eliminated by Nadal in QF. Could prove crucial later in the year.

by lydian Tue 02 Apr 2013, 6:24 pm

37.5% isn't bad odds.

Yeah TSJ, it's either nightmare match-up, nightmare technique or Nightmare on Elm Street.

by The Special Juan Tue 02 Apr 2013, 6:31 pm

Cogen wrote:
The Special Juan wrote:It doesn't really matter. Murray will never win the French Open so getting neither or both of Nadal and Federer in his half means nothing.

Disagree with you there. Agree it is highly unlikely Murray will ever win the French Open, but I definitely don't think the draw "means nothing".

If Murray avoids all the other "Big 4" guys in his half, he has a shot a reaching the final. Still a very tough shot, granted, and you'd probably make Ferrer odds on favourite for the final, but he'd have a shot. And reaching the final is a very big deal in terms of the ranking situation if he wants to become world #1. Nearly a thousand extra points for losing in the final vs being eliminated by Nadal in QF. Could prove crucial later in the year.

Ah you've thought that through unlike me. I was approaching it purely from the title winning angle as opposed to the rankings angle. When you make that point then it does make a difference with regards to the draw but I still think Daveed would beat Murray on clay. I didn't realise the difference in points between QF and F was that big though.

by Cogen Tue 02 Apr 2013, 6:51 pm

That's me... always thinking about the rankings! Laugh

Its funny... If you ask most players whether they would rather win a slam, or be world number 1, most would take the slam without hesitation. But since the rankings began in 1973, there have been 48 different slam winners, and only 25 world number 1s. So being world number 1 is a technically a tougher achievement and a much more exclusive group! chin

I suppose it is the fact that being a slam champion gives you a tangible award. You actually won something and you have a trophy you can hold in your hands. You don't get anything for being world number 1, unless you happen to hold the spot in the year-end rankings.

But I still reckon achieving number 1 at some point would be a massive boost for Murray's legacy when people look back on his career in decades to come.

by hawkeye Tue 02 Apr 2013, 7:13 pm

What are rankings? They are not solid like a good old fashioned trophy. Both Federer and Nadal are obviously not interested in chasing such things. If they did would they be cutting back on tournaments? Also wasn't Nadal arguing that he didn't agree with how they are calculated.

by banbrotam Tue 02 Apr 2013, 10:49 pm

hawkeye wrote:What are rankings? They are not solid like a good old fashioned trophy. Both Federer and Nadal are obviously not interested in chasing such things. If they did would they be cutting back on tournaments? Also wasn't Nadal arguing that he didn't agree with how they are calculated.

Of course you've never being bothered by such things

https://www.606v2.com/t41992-atp-race-nadal-vs-nole-momentum-change#1938946

picard

by hawkeye Tue 02 Apr 2013, 11:01 pm

^

Nadal stole the momentum and left Djokovic to gather the ranking points. He has a much more important use for the stolen momentum Rolling Eyes

by banbrotam Tue 02 Apr 2013, 11:05 pm

Amazingly, there's only 4 players younger than Murray / Nole in the Top 20 and one of them is a similar age

by sirfredperry Wed 03 Apr 2013, 9:10 am

Interesting about the "number one or a Slam" debate. Murray, for example, got far more overall coverage - inside pages rather than the sports pages - for his Miami win as it meant he got to number two. OK, it wasn't his first time there but it was the first time he was ahead of both Rafa and Rog.
I think it would be a huge story for UK media if Andy got to number one, especially as he already has a Slam. Only his winning Wimbledon would be a bigger story, IMHO.
Patrick Rafter was, I think, top for just one week. But he can be labelled former world number one for ever and no doubt he was very proud of his seven days on top of the pile.

by prostaff85 Wed 03 Apr 2013, 9:24 am

Cogen wrote:
The Special Juan wrote:It doesn't really matter. Murray will never win the French Open so getting neither or both of Nadal and Federer in his half means nothing.

Disagree with you there. Agree it is highly unlikely Murray will ever win the French Open, but I definitely don't think the draw "means nothing".

If Murray avoids all the other "Big 4" guys in his half, he has a shot a reaching the final. Still a very tough shot, granted, and you'd probably make Ferrer odds on favourite for the final, but he'd have a shot. And reaching the final is a very big deal in terms of the ranking situation if he wants to become world #1. Nearly a thousand extra points for losing in the final vs being eliminated by Nadal in QF. Could prove crucial later in the year.

I don't quite get why people think Murray would not have a chance to win Roland Garros. OK he hasn't had great results on clay yet, but I seem to remember that he seriously challenged Djokovic in Rome in 2011 when the Djoker was virtually untouchable and beating even Nadal on clay. He also has a coach who knows a thing or two about how to win in Paris.

Murray's game is based on patience and endurance, long rallies, lobs, etc., which is perfect for clay! He just beat Ferrer on an extremely show hard-court which very much played like clay, while being clearly a few levels below his best.

I also think Murray will showly start getting the upper hand over Djokovic. He was unlucky to lose in Melbourne after the epic semi against Federer with Djokovic having a stroll against Daveeeed. Clearly ran out of steam in the final.

The only problem is that there may not be a long window of opportunity between the time Nadal starts fading and new stars arise who will beat the likes of Djokovic and Murray.

by prostaff85 Wed 03 Apr 2013, 9:32 am

prostaff85 wrote:
Cogen wrote:
The Special Juan wrote:It doesn't really matter. Murray will never win the French Open so getting neither or both of Nadal and Federer in his half means nothing.

Disagree with you there. Agree it is highly unlikely Murray will ever win the French Open, but I definitely don't think the draw "means nothing".

If Murray avoids all the other "Big 4" guys in his half, he has a shot a reaching the final. Still a very tough shot, granted, and you'd probably make Ferrer odds on favourite for the final, but he'd have a shot. And reaching the final is a very big deal in terms of the ranking situation if he wants to become world #1. Nearly a thousand extra points for losing in the final vs being eliminated by Nadal in QF. Could prove crucial later in the year.

I don't quite get why people think Murray would not have a chance to win Roland Garros. OK he hasn't had great results on clay yet, but I seem to remember that he seriously challenged Djokovic in Rome in 2011 when the Djoker was virtually untouchable and beating even Nadal on clay. He also has a coach who knows a thing or two about how to win in Paris.

Murray's game is based on patience and endurance, long rallies, lobs, etc., which is perfect for clay! He just beat Ferrer on an extremely show hard-court which very much played like clay, while being clearly a few levels below his best.

I also think Murray will slowly start getting the upper hand over Djokovic. He was unlucky to lose in Melbourne after the epic semi against Federer with Djokovic having a stroll against Daveeeed. Clearly ran out of steam in the final.

The only problem is that there may not be a long window of opportunity between the time Nadal starts fading and new stars arise who will beat the likes of Djokovic and Murray.

by LuvSports! Wed 03 Apr 2013, 11:15 am

I just think murrays greatest strength (movement) is greatly hindered on clay meaning he is more vulnerable to the big hitters.
If he were to play DP or berdych among others i would favour them to beat him on the dirt.

by Guest Wed 03 Apr 2013, 12:28 pm

The key to Murray succeeding on Clay is aggression. 2011 was evident of that when he attacked Djokovic and Nadal and gave a real good account of himself and reached the semi's of the FO IIRC.

His FH isn't flat enough to grab cheap points on Clay and hence the top players attack his FH.

He has the legs to last, but flat out aggression is energy sapping and moving that frame of his which is now weighed down a bit with muscle makes movement more tricky for Andy.

I hope he can perform like he did against Gasquet and Cilic in Miami given conditions in both matches were slow Smile

by banbrotam Wed 03 Apr 2013, 12:32 pm

Not certain, that Andy was that bothered about Clay last year. Back injuries, new coach and a very important summer were obvious distractions. He played that Ferrer game with gay abandon and made 50-odd errors in his most careless slam performance in a couple of years

I think this year, he feels quietly confident.

by Cogen Wed 03 Apr 2013, 1:35 pm

Yeah, I'd never completely write off Murray. If the stars align and he is in really good form on the clay, and gets a good draw, he could pull it off... but I just find it highly unlikely. He's never won a match on clay against any of the other main guys.

Djokovic 2-0
Nadal 4-0
Ferrer 4-0
Federer 0-0

Interesting that although Federer and Murray have now played 20 times, they've never once played on clay! I'm stuggling to picture how a clay match would actually play out between them. Headscratch

Anyway, looking below those four guys, at the next two big threats:

Berdych 2-0
Del Potro 1-1 ... and that one victory for Murray was when Del Potro retired.

So, if Murray is going to come through against all of those odds, it is going to required quite the turnaround.

I just think, although the speed and bounce on clay might suit Murray's game quite nicely, he really struggles with his movement. Being able to take a split-step and change direction so quickly to cover the entire court is one of Andy's biggest assets... and that skill is hampered a lot by the slippery surface.

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