Points Spy - Rome

Another Masters week, another Points Spy

Live Rank	Orig Rank	Player	Orig Points	Drop Points	Gain Points	Live Points	Live Movement	Current Status	Next Opponent
1	1	N. Djokovic [SRB]	12730	600	180	12310		Eliminated - QF
2	2	A. Murray [GBR]	8750	90	10	8670		Eliminated - R32
3	3	R. Federer [SUI]	7760	360	600	8000		Eliminated - Final
4	5	R. Nadal [ESP]	6895	1000	1000	6895	Up 1	Champion
5	4	D. Ferrer [ESP]	6920	360	180	6740	Down 1	Eliminated - QF
6	6	T. Berdych [CZE]	4520	180	360	4700		Eliminated - SF
7	7	J. Del Potro [ARG]	4320	90	90	4320		Eliminated - R16
8	8	J. Tsonga [FRA]	3965	180	10	3795		Eliminated - R32
9	9	R. Gasquet [FRA]	3180	180	90	3090		Eliminated - R16
10	11	J. Tipsarevic [SRB]	2650	10	0	2640	Up 1	Did Not Play
11	10	S. Wawrinka [SUI]	2675	90	45	2630	Down 1	Eliminated - R32
12	13	M. Cilic [CRO]	2535	10	45	2570	Up 1	Eliminated - R32
13	12	N. Almagro [ESP]	2570	90	10	2490	Down 1	Eliminated - R64
14	14	T. Haas [GER]	2420	90	10	2340		Eliminated - R64
15	15	K. Nishikori [JPN]	2270	0	45	2315		Eliminated - R32
16	16	M. Raonic [CAN]	2225	10	10	2225		Eliminated - R64
17	17	G. Simon [FRA]	1940	90	90	1940		Eliminated - R16
18	18	J. Monaco [ARG]	1830	90	10	1750		Eliminated - R64
19	22	P. Kohlschreiber [GER]	1670	10	90	1750	Up 3	Eliminated - R16
20	19	S. Querrey [USA]	1790	70	10	1730	Down 1	Eliminated - R64
		Selected Others:
21	20	J. Isner [USA]	1725	45	10	1690	Down 1	Eliminated - R64
23	24	J. Janowicz [POL]	1354	16	180	1518	Up 1	Eliminated - QF
26	36	B. Paire [FRA]	1065	20	360	1405	Up 10	Eliminated - SF
33	37	M. Granollers [ESP]	1055	90	180	1145	Up 4	Eliminated - QF	Paire

Main points:

• As has become the norm, Djokovic is a long way clear and could not be caught.
  
• Federer was less than 1,000 points behind Murray coming into the event, but as he was defending a semi-final Murray remained #2.
  
• Nadal climbed back to #4 by retaining his title and forcing Ferrer to drop points.
  
• Wawrinka propelled himself up into the top 10 last week, following a great patch of form, but he immediately slips back out again after withdrawing prior to his match against Dolgopolov.
  

I'm enjoying the revolving door warfare from #10 to #16 lately, it seems as though they're chopping and changing constantly. Nice opportunity this week for Kei and Stan to capitalise on plenty of early exits around them.

Thanks again for your stellar work Cogen

Wawrinka has withdrawn from the tournament and that means Tipsy is back up into the top 10 without even playing this week!

Added the quarter finalists into the table if they were not already on it. As usual all gains with the lower ranked players are estimates, because I do not track Challengers which may be going on this week.

Turned into a great week for Mr Paire! What on earth went on in his QF against Granollers?! 6-1, 6-0!

Seedings for RG looks set to be

1 Djok, 2 Mur, 3 Fed, 4 Rafa

so we can't have a Djok-Mur encounter before the final or any big 4 matchups in the quarters. Fed-Rafa semi is also avoided, they can't play until the final. Semis will be either

DjokvFed
MurvRaf

OR

DjokvRaf
MurvFed

Probably be better and fairer if Djok and Raf are kept apart until a potential final.

Obviously this is if Murray plays, I'll do a separate comment for if Murray pulls out..

If Murray pulls out seedings should be 1 Djok 2 Fed 3 Raf 4 Ferrer

so we can't see Djok-Fed or Rafa-Ferrer (unless in the final)

Semis will be either

DjokvRafa
FedvFerrer

OR

DjokvFerrer
FedvRafa

I think the latter would be a fairer draw. Although Federer is not going to have much chance of actually winning the title then. At least if he gets the Ferrer quarter there is a chance of a tired Djoko in the final, which is winnable. Not sure it would be the right to win it though.

Of course, there's always every chance that the top 4 players will actually lose earlier and the line up could be quite different. Murray and maybe Federer could be vulnerable to early round defeats. Federer is overdue one.

I make the current ranking points about
Djokovic 12,310
Murray 8670
Federer 8000
Nadal 6,895
Ferrer 6,740

Deducting the RG points that gives us
Djokovic 11,110
Murray 8,310
Federer 7,280
Nadal 4,895
Ferrer 6,020

Have thrown this together so let me know if you spot any major errors although not really interested in little errors like 20 points..

So:
---Nadal will be ranked outside the top 4 at Wimbledon probably if he doesn't win FO. Even if he wins FO, and everyone else withdraws, Nadal cannot be in the top 3 rankings by Wimbledon
---Djokovic cannot be caught and should be the no 1 ranked player at Wimbledon.
---If Murray withdraws, Federer needs to get to the final to overtake him, and a final defeat for Federer at FO would leave Murray and Federer battling for the no 2 ranking in the small tournaments before Wimbledon.
---If Federer fails to reach the FO final, Murray should be seeded #2 at Wimbledon.
---Rankings for Wimbledon already look quite likely to be #1 Djokovic, 2 Murray, 3 Federer, and Nadal/Ferrer after that, hard to say in what order.

This is pretty rough, I don't know if any of them are playing a tournament next week. Probably not.

Sorry for being impatient, but I know you won't put up the FO thread until next week's tournaments are done, but I thought I would just put up a top4-5 analysis for now.

Superb mathematics

Murray says he'll make a decision on Wednesday so that'll clear things up. For the life of me I'll never understand why Nadal isn't seeded as number 1 for the FO.

Henman Bill wrote:So:
---If Murray withdraws, Federer needs to get to the final to overtake him, and a final defeat for Federer at FO would leave Murray and Federer battling for the no 2 ranking in the small tournaments before Wimbledon.
---If Federer fails to reach the FO final, Murray should be seeded #2 at Wimbledon.
---Rankings for Wimbledon already look quite likely to be #1 Djokovic, 2 Murray, 3 Federer, and Nadal/Ferrer after that, hard to say in what order.

Don't forget HB, that the seedings are not the same as rankings at Wimbledon.

The surface adjustment is I think 100% of all grass court points from 2012, plus 75% of the points from the best 2011 result. This must work quite a bit in Fed's favour as he has the 2000 pts for winning Wimbledon last year. (Fed has 2000 + 450 Olympics + 150 Halle + 75% of 360; Murray has 1200 + 750 + 0 + 75% of 720).

So if it's close, Fed gets the second seeding. I'm not sure if this is a bad thing for Murray anyway, as he'd then avoid Nadal before the final (assuming Rafa wins the French). I'm sure Fed would prefer to avoid Nadal too.

I do know about all that and I tried to write "ranked" at Wimbledon rather than "seeded" although did write it wrong in one case.

I have a feeling this Wimbledon seeding often ends up the same as the ranking anyway though I can't remember for sure.

Sorry for slow update, guys... busy weekend!

Also with his win in Rome Rafa moves up to number one in the race. He has 5,000 points and Novak has 4,310 points.

http://live-tennis.eu/race

It will be hard for Rafa to finish first in the race but he is giving himself a fighting chance. He will need to extend that lead by the end of Wimbledon I feel.