The myth of the myth of young Nadal being better than Nadal of today

So from the original clay discussions of young vs older Nadal we heard the subsequent bold assertion "I would take Nadal of 2010-2013 over Nadal of 05-08 anyday of the week and twice on Sunday", i.e. Nadal is a much better player in recent times vs 2005-2008.

To examine this I looked at the following comprehensive clay stats: Aces per match, 1st serve points won, 2nd serve points won, Service games won, Break points saved, 1st serve return points won, 2nd serve points won, BPs converted and Return games won.

Averaging the stats across the period 2005-2008 and the years after that, i.e. 2009-2013, we get:

SERVING 05-08 vs 09-13:
Aces per match ------ 1.8 vs 2.0
1st serve pts won ------ 70.0 vs 72.4
2nd serve pts won------ 57.3 vs 57.2
Break points saved ------ 67.0 vs 69.4
Service games won ------ 84.8 vs 87.4 (i.e. -2.6% diff)


RETURNING 05-08 vs 09-13:
1st serve return pts won ------ 41.8 vs 38.4
2nd serve points won ------ 58.8 vs 58.6
BPs converted ------ 48.8 vs 49.6
Return games won ------ 45.5 vs 42.8 (i.e. +2.7% diff)

There is a clear picture here, his outright serving between 09-13 is better and yes we know the serve has got faster.
However, when we look at his rallying game, i.e. his returning stats and % holds on 2nd serve, they were clearly better 2005-8.

Crucially, when we look at actual % games won from a complete perspective, if we look at the difference in service games won between 05-08 vs 09-13 (-2.6%) to the difference in return games won over same period (+2.7) we get a net difference of 0.1% in favour of the 2005-08 period. So from a complete "game winning" perspective the difference is balanced out, i.e. not better.

Therefore, there is no ACTUAL evidence to back up the opinion that 'modern' Nadal is better than 2005-2008 Nadal "anyday of the week and twice on Sunday" outside his modified service motion.

Just saying...

Grandslam finals on a hardcourt

05-08=0

Grandslam finals 2010-2013: 4

By the way as BS has shown players are holding and serving better today by the numbers so why wouldn't Nadal's numbers go down. I will respond on the other thread, as this topic really doesn't need two threads.

Socal, this origin of this discussion was on clay!

Why would I argue hardcourt slams when there's no argument to be had there - although I wonder what the hardcourt data shows outside of slam count...

So you've neatly sidestepped the clay comparison and moved the goalposts. Funny that.

I also gave much more comprehensive data than BS in showing that serve holding across the top 100 players since '96 hasn't changed. Shall we revisit that again?

No matter what contradictory data I show I know you'll never concede the facts. I remember this was the same with someone else...

wasn't 05-07 part of the weak era anyway so thats why his numbers were better? Less competition. In all seriousness, Mats Wilander said back in 09 that he thinks Nadal's clay court game will suffer as he becomes better on other surfaces, he wasn't far off although Nadal 2010s clay court season was ridiculous, did he drop more than a set from Monte Carlo all the way to winning the French Open?

He dropped 2 sets in 2010 EU clay season so not far off. Dropped only 2 last year as well.

If you discount the Ferrero/blisters match at Rome he only dropped 3 sets in 2008 (thats inc. playing Barcelona which he didn't enter in 2010 due to fatigue).
He only dropped 4 sets in 2007 and that's playing 5 full events (not 4 in 2010). That was the year he was on a 81 match streak on clay.

The Mythyth of Therena Williamth ith far more interethting don't you think ?