THE Open Championship 2013

First topic message reminder :

In response to PD's plea, here's my effort at a thread for this week's ET event, which just happens to be the most important event on that particular calendar, if not in the world of golf as a whole. I'll try to keep it factual, other than the 'ones to watch' at the end.

The 142nd Open Championship gets underway this week at Muirfield, just outside Edinburgh. Defending champion, in both respects, is Ernie Els, the big South African having followed up his playoff win at Muirfield in 2002 with last year's surprise victory at Lytham.

Els has quite a record in this event. He missed the cut on debut in 1989, but has played every year since 1992, recording 2 wins, 3 runner-up positions and a further 7 top tens. He's missed the cut just twice in that run, in 2010 when so many were caught out by the weather on the Friday at St. Andrews, and again in poor conditions at RSG the following year. In that context, his win last year is even more remarkable. Other notable stats for the Big Easy at the oldest major include twice recording 4 rounds in the 60s without winning, in 1993 and 2004 (brownie points on offer for naming the only other player to do this and the year), finishing under par most often since 1963 alongside two other huge names in the recent history of the Open (easy to guess who so I'd like the number of times too please), and he edges both of them on overall number of rounds under 70, 39 to their 37 and 33. Interestingly they both have more rounds under par than Ernie, which I suppose means when he's good he's very good. Testament to that would be his 29 on the front 9 in the second round at Muirfield in 2002, and his seven consecutive rounds under 70 in 1993-4.

Muirfield as a venue commands, it seems, a great deal of respect from the players even though the male only status of the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers as a club casts something of a shadow over an otherwise excellent location for this great championship. I have no intention of expressing an opinion on that particular issue, not least because this week has nothing to do with the membership of the club and everything to do with the best players in the world. At 7,192 yards it's no beast, and indeed may even be considered short these days, even though they've added some 158 yards this time around. That won't detract from the substantial test that it's bound to provide, the rough at least providing some defence even if the weather doesn't look like it's going to. It's not an in and out type links, rather the front 9 loops clockwise around the anti-clockwise homeward 9. Par is 71, with 3 par 5s (5,9,17) and 4 par 3 holes (4,7,13,16). The prevailing wind will help on 5 and 17, so look for those holes to be eagle opportunities, while 9 plays back into it and at over 550 yards will be out of reach for most if there's any kind of breeze. 2, 3 and 11 are par 4s under 400 yards and ought to offer birdie opportunities, especially since the wind is likely to be helping on those holes. With the exception of the 4th, the par 3s are all around 180-190 yards, so should be no more than a mid-iron for most of the field.  

Previous champions here have included some of the game's true greats - Els, Faldo of course, twice, as well as Nicklaus, Watson, Trevino, Player and Cotton. Nobody has won the Open here by default. Faldo's 18 pars to edge out Azinger in 1987 will be part of Open Championship folk lore for centuries, even though his finish here in 1992 was arguably more inspired following his mid-round stumble which let John Cook have a sniff of victory.

Perhaps important to note is that although we look back on those last 7 Muirfield winners as greats of the game, for some of them victory here was their first in the Open (2 names?) or indeed in a major championship of any sort (another 2?). As such, could this be the first of many Opens for a new great (Rory, Justin, Adam?)

Victory in Scotland this week for Phil Mickelson has to mean he should be considered as another great player with the potential to win at Muirfield, although the fairways there will surely look like tiny islands in a sea of rough in relation to the giant swathes of short grass that the contenders at Castle Stuart were faced with this past week. So who else could be lifting the claret jug next Sunday?

Rory McIlroy - the world no. 2 hasn't given anybody any reason to suspect he'll be able to turn his form so far this season around, and this isn't his favourite event on the calendar. If the weather remains as calm as forecast that may change, but there will surely be too many genuine contenders for Rory to sneak up on the rails and pinch this one?

Tiger Woods - we've not seen numero uno since his latest injury, to his left elbow, forced him to miss his own tournament at Congressional. He's apparently 'full go' for the Open, albeit recognising that staying out of the rough will be an even better idea than usual! The length, or lack of it, of the course means he can afford to leave the driver in the bag most of the time and still have scoring opportunities but as with Rory, there are too many other serious contenders to think that Woods might win here when he was only able to muster a T28 here last time, which included a very wet, windy and rough-strewn third round 81.  

Ernie Els - the defending champion has to be a very serious contender this week, his excellent Open record combining with some pretty good recent form including of course victory in Germany 3 weeks ago. With no wind to blow him off course as he wedges his belly putter into place, you have to think Els will be in the mix next Sunday.

Graeme McDowell - another recent winner, and the all or nothing man of 2013. To mix missed cuts and wins the way GMac has done of late suggests huge mental strength, something that Muirfield Open champions have in common.

Lee Westwood - as some of you may know I'm a big fan of Lee's, but I don't really know why. Ordinarily my pessimistic, cynical nature would predict a good start to the tournament for Lee only to whimper out of contention on Friday and Saturday to the point where he hasn't got a realistic chance of winning on Sunday. However, he took the decision to miss the French Open in order to be better rested for the Open, and I'm hoping that will pay off. He's straight enough to win, especially if his recently improved short game holds out, but whether he has the mental strength I mentioned above remains to be seen!

Justin Rose - mental strength can't be questioned following that tremendous finish at Merion, and he certainly has the game to win at Muirfield. He doesn't have a great record in the Open though, his famous 4th place as an amateur in 1998 at Birkdale comfortably his best finish. 12th in 2007 and 13th in 2009 are his best pro finishes. Given his exertions at Merion, I think victory here would be asking too much.

Adam Scott - Justin's big pal and the other major champion of 2013 so far should arguably be defending champion this week. I was at Lytham to witness his demise on the Sunday, and it was pretty clear as he played the 18th that he wasn't in a good place mentally. Much like Rory he bounced back from throwing away a major by winning one very soon after, but I just have a feeling that also like Rory the one that got away will take a bit longer to finally reel in. Rory will most likely win the Masters one day, just as Adam will probably win an Open, but I fear the memories will still be too fresh for the Aussie this week.

All in all then, GMac, Ernie or Lee. All are around 25/1. If you want an outside bet; Brooks Koepke will return you 5 times as much as those big names - he's had a phenomenal year on the Challenge tour, graduating to the main ET via 3 wins before July and he played pretty well at Castle Stuart this week.

With the weather promising to be very pleasant, the course is likely to be hard and running, with the rough therefore coming more into play. Muirfield will doubtless produce a fantastic tournament and another excellent golfer will be announced by Peter Dawson around 7pm next Sunday as 'winner of the gold medal and champion golfer for the year'.

shclaff wrote:Are you guys keeping tabs on the practice he does? From what I've seen there is no evidence to suggest he doesn't want to put a shift in.

Super, he looked completely demoralised at the Open so I'm not sure what you mean.

I'm not even a huge McIlroy fan but armchair viewers and even ex pros having a crack does get my goat a little. Especially when it's based on nothing but conjecture.

Inclined to agree.

super_realist wrote:

shclaff wrote:Are you guys keeping tabs on the practice he does? From what I've seen there is no evidence to suggest he doesn't want to put a shift in.

Super, he looked completely demoralised at the Open so I'm not sure what you mean.

I'm not even a huge McIlroy fan but armchair viewers and even ex pros having a crack does get my goat a little. Especially when it's based on nothing but conjecture.

I said it LOOKED like he was disinterested, I didn't say I knew for certain that he was.

If we aren't allowed to air our views based on what we see and what we think we see then what's the bloody point of this forum?

McIlroy to me looks to be more interested in his girlfriend, who also is enjoying a similar downward spiral in her career, making turgid adverts and pocketing loads of money than actually grinding it out on the course like people like Poulter or Garcia have done after having dreadful rounds.

I may be completely wrong and he may be the most dedicated pro around and never off the practice ground or adapting his game to the conditions he might face. However to me he may have been distracted by A) how good he was last year and B) his massive bank balance and C) newly found enhanced celebrity status, or, maybe he peaked early and he's just another very good,  but not top of the tree tour pro who can be brilliant for long terms, or completely gash.

Well speaking for myself, just after I won my first medal and bagged a steady girlfriend, my game went to sh!te, but my balls got plenty of action and to be honest when you're young and full of p!ss n vinegar I think golf would be quite far down the list of priorities. He's 22 and should do what he likes, and if that means mooning around his quite delectable young sporty girlfriend, I say go for it. He's et up for life - it's only golf for gawds sake. And we all know that he's gonna win a bucketfull more tourneys and majors...



(can't believe I just said it's only golf)

I suppose the point is if he takes the view that he's set up for life and "it's only golf" then he definitely won't win a bucketful more Majors. It all comes down to attitude and desire. Anyway, none of us know what we're talking about on this issue so it's only idle speculation.

Tinmar wrote:I suppose the point is if he takes the view that he's set up for life and "it's only golf" then he definitely won't win a bucketful more Majors. It all comes down to attitude and desire. Anyway, none of us know what we're talking about on this issue so it's only idle speculation.

Yeah but you remember being 22 right? And remember getting boned silly at every available opportunity? Remember those first heady days of romance when you wanted to be with your other half 24/7? I think maybe we are a bit further down the line and forget what a bit of womanly love can do to a young man...


(not to mention winning 2 majors and being a squillionaire)

Yes he's 24 and driven by his balls, but that's all we're saying, really. If he's going to get back to his best, he'll either have to apply himself or split up with her. He won't win a thing while he's not focused.