Dark horses?

by **profitius** Sat 10 Aug 2013, 4:19 pm

First topic message reminder :

What teams in the various leagues do you think will have a better than expected season than people expect? Any up and coming teams to keep an eye on?

by Luckless Pedestrian Wed 14 Aug 2013, 8:12 am

I'd love to see Zebre get a few wins this coming season, but is it feasible that they ran sides close last season because the opposition expected the win? If so, they won't be taking them as lightly this season and Zebre might find it tougher this season than last.

I'm not going to big up the Dragons here. We've made some canny signings and we've got a couple of good coaches on board, but we haven't played a game yet.

by munkian Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:04 am

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I'd love to see Zebre get a few wins this coming season, but is it feasible that they ran sides close last season because the opposition expected the win? If so, they won't be taking them as lightly this season and Zebre might find it tougher this season than last.

I'm not going to big up the Dragons here. We've made some canny signings and we've got a couple of good coaches on board, but we haven't played a game yet.

Plus we only have one pre season game (Barf) so we will be a little under cooked against Ulster Shocked

by Luckless Pedestrian Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:06 am

We won't be undercooked, Munk, we'll be fresh. Wink

by beshocked Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:14 am

Can't understand the calls for Dragons and Zebre as dark horses.

They might pick up an extra win or two but do you really think they will escape the bottom 3?

London Irish have a decent looking backline on paper. It's the pack where the issues are going to come from. I don't rate Brian Smith as a DOR either.

In contrast Newcastle have a very crafty DOR. They also have players that if they can get the best out of are capable of doing a good job for them. Particularly the ex Sarries academy trio - Powell,Saull and Cato. They also have quite a significant Scottish contingent with plenty of experience. Plenty of potential in the squad in my opinion.

Just looking at the Newcastle squad it's amazing how many non English players they have.

by Geordie Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:21 am

Its quite a British squad Beshocked with a few SH guys thrown in.

But i would say Deano is working hard to bring in English players...ie the Sarries trio, and a host of young academy players.

But as you say he's crafty and he likes his old experienced campaigners in there aswell.

I think you'll see it shift to primarily an English based side with smattering of British over the next few years.

However we have always had a strong contingent of Scots...only nautral with our close proximity to them.

Props: Grant Shiels, Oliver Tomasczyk, Keiron Brookes, Scott Wilson, Jeff Hallam, Nahuel Lobo, Franck Montanella

Hookers: Matt Thompson, Rob Vickers, Scott Lawson, George McGuigan, David Nelson

Second Rows:Carlo Del Fava, Scott MacLeod, Sean Tomes, Frasier McKensie, Dom Barrow

Back Row:Ally Hogg, Will Welch, Richard Mayhew, Andy Saull, Mark Wilson, Chris York, Ben Morris, Harrison Collins

Backs
SH's: Chris Pilgrim, Warren Fury, Mike Blair
Fh's: Joel Hodgson, Waisea Luveniyali, Rory Clegg, Phil Godman

Centres: Jamie Helleur, James Fitzpatrick, Tane Tu'ipulotu, Andrew Higgins
Alex Crocket, Michael Tait, Adam Powell, Danny Barnes

Wing: Ryan Shortland, Andy Higgins, Suka Hufanga, Noah Cato, Sean Brown, Tom Penny

FB's: Tom Catterick, Alex Tait, Simon Hammersley, Chris Harris.

Highlighted are non English...and the Scottish are a large number of that (Blue).

by Bathman_in_London Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:23 am

Before the AP season has even started I think the winner is going to be one of Sarries or Leicester, so no dark horses in that department for me. Gloucester have a very good squad which for me has consistently under performed and for me should really be taking one of Northampton/Quins spots in the top 4.

Newcastle have a good looking squad and I think may well surprise some teams, finishing well clear of the drop.

by Portnoy's Complaint Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:29 am

Has to be said that promoted sides do seem to have a tendency to be more diverse nationally than most of their Jeff partners. However, I'm fully confident that Newcastle will draw on its famed academy and begin to redress any perceived non-English balance in the side.

That said, Deano is a cold fish when it comes to professional rugby and will do what is required to maintain their status in the top league.

by **LondonTiger** Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:30 am

Sale will do better than people think.

Bath should do well this season, but will probably be some way below expectations again (what is the reverse of a dark horse?)

by **LondonTiger** Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:32 am

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:Has to be said that promoted sides do seem to have a tendency to be more diverse nationally than most of their Jeff partners. However, I'm fully confident that Newcastle will draw on its famed academy and begin to redress any perceived non-English balance in the side.

That said, Deano is a cold fish when it comes to professional rugby and will do what is required to maintain their status in the top league.

Well as we are all one currently (for now) we should expect a number of Scots to play for Newcastle. It is, for some of the borders guys, much easier to get to.

by beshocked Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:33 am

Geordiefalcon that's how you are labelling it - a "British" squad. Laugh

Technically you are correct of course but it means there are less spaces for English players. You are the unofficial 3rd club of Scotland. you won't get criticised though.

It's just strange to see Newcastle go this route when you have had such a strong academy. Is the impressive Newcastle production line no longer working as effectively?

Perhaps you are right. Perhaps this is just a short term plan by Dean Richards - obviously it's crucial that Newcastle avoid relegation so they need some old heads and guys with decent AP experience regardless of nationality.

by Geordie Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:52 am

Yes its a British squad Wink

and anyone thinking a club so close to the borders with a history of strong scottish players not having any would be daft.

We have actually just promoted 7 of that list above from the academy some of which we are very excited about indeed...the academy is well and truly back in action.

Deano's already stated his initial ideals...8-10 top local premiership players...the warriors he calls them, 3-5 international standard players, then 1-2 world class players.
It'll be fascinating seeing how it goes.

You are the unofficial 3rd club of Scotland. you won't get criticised though.

Well we get labled a small town in Scotland anyway..

by Sgt_Pooly Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:54 am

Lets just hope we have enough to stay up next season GF

by Geordie Wed 14 Aug 2013, 9:56 am

Wel ill look a bit daft if we dont...but im quite confident about us this season...it'll be tough i have no doubt of that..but i think we will do it.

by munkian Wed 14 Aug 2013, 10:10 am

beshocked wrote:Can't understand the calls for Dragons and Zebre as dark horses.

They might pick up an extra win or two but do you really think they will escape the bottom 3?

London Irish have a decent looking backline on paper. It's the pack where the issues are going to come from. I don't rate Brian Smith as a DOR either.

In contrast Newcastle have a very crafty DOR. They also have players that if they can get the best out of are capable of doing a good job for them. Particularly the ex Sarries academy trio - Powell,Saull and Cato. They also have quite a significant Scottish contingent with plenty of experience. Plenty of potential in the squad in my opinion.

Just looking at the Newcastle squad it's amazing how many non English players they have.

Dragons are tentively being called a 'dark horse' for several reasons

* Last season was awful, even for us, our players will be very keen to make ammends for themselves and their fans
* We've made some fairly smart recruitments without breaking the bank - exxperienced Hooker/10/9 etc
* We have 2 new canny coaches on our management team that urine on our current setup from a great height
*Cardiff are looking a little lack lustre, haven't picked up many signings (Geth aside) and lost a few players too, we will be targetting them to become the 3rd Welsh region
*We've kept Faletau Yahoo

by Geordie Wed 14 Aug 2013, 10:23 am

It's just strange to see Newcastle go this route when you have had such a strong academy. Is the impressive Newcastle production line no longer working as effectively?

Beshocked, also i think we have to look back to Alan Tait as manager, and he elected to go down the foreign journeyman route...which ultimately ended in us going down.
Deano is reverting back to the academy.

by Luckless Pedestrian Wed 14 Aug 2013, 10:23 am

I don't like this assumption that the Blues will be poor this season. It doesn't say much for us if we're relying on them to fail in order for us to climb the table. Yes, they've lost Jamie Roberts, but he hardly ever played for them anyway. I don't think they'll be amazing, but I don't think they'll be terrible either.

by munkian Wed 14 Aug 2013, 10:30 am

Poor or not, we really need to target them - we beat them more often than the bloody Turks ! boxing

by **profitius** Thu 15 Aug 2013, 2:19 pm

Heres who I think will be stronger or weaker this season in the pro 12. + (stronger), - (weaker), = (same)

= Ulster
- Leinster
= Glasgow
+ Edinburgh
= Ospreys
= Blues
= Scarlets
+ Dragons
= Treviso
+ Zebre
+ Connacht
+ Munster

I'm not 100% sure about the Welsh or Italian teams. Leinster are the only team who I think will be weaker this season than last season.

by munkian Thu 15 Aug 2013, 2:44 pm

I think the Scarlets COULD be weaker - missing North and Fenby, haven't really pushed the boat out with signings.

Keerdiff have gained Geth, lost Roberts, James etc

Ospreys probably about the same

by Portnoy's Complaint Thu 15 Aug 2013, 2:45 pm

profitius wrote:Heres who I think will be stronger or weaker this season in the pro 12. + (stronger), - (weaker), = (same)

= Ulster
- Leinster
= Glasgow
+ Edinburgh
= Ospreys
= Blues
= Scarlets
+ Dragons
= Treviso
+ Zebre
+ Connacht
+ Munster

I'm not 100% sure about the Welsh or Italian teams. Leinster are the only team who I think will be weaker this season than last season.

So that's five stronger teams and one weaker one.

Relatively which one of the stronger teams will be the surprise package?

by munkian Thu 15 Aug 2013, 3:01 pm

Dragons, durrr

by ScarletSpiderman Thu 15 Aug 2013, 3:06 pm

profitius wrote:Heres who I think will be stronger or weaker this season in the pro 12. + (stronger), - (weaker), = (same)

= Ulster
- Leinster
= Glasgow
+ Edinburgh
= Ospreys
= Blues
= Scarlets
+ Dragons
= Treviso
+ Zebre
+ Connacht
+ Munster

I'm not 100% sure about the Welsh or Italian teams. Leinster are the only team who I think will be weaker this season than last season.

Please say that isn't how you see the table ending up.

by maestegmafia Thu 15 Aug 2013, 3:13 pm

munkian wrote:I think the Scarlets COULD be weaker - missing North and Fenby, haven't really pushed the boat out with signings.

Keerdiff have gained Geth, lost Roberts, James etc

Ospreys probably about the same

Sounds pretty accurate... very excited to see how it pans out.. pre season games start very soon...!

by Jenifer McLadyboy Thu 15 Aug 2013, 3:28 pm

Rumours of our death have been greatly exagerated.

by maestegmafia Thu 15 Aug 2013, 3:30 pm

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:Rumours of our death have been greatly exagerated.

I dont think anyone is writing off Leinster, just presuming that they are not the force they were a few seasons ago...!

by munkian Thu 15 Aug 2013, 3:39 pm

Not that they relied on Isa or anything... Very Happy

by Artful_Dodger Thu 15 Aug 2013, 3:45 pm

Treviso for a playoff spot would be my outside/dark horse thinking. Especially with Van Niekerk coming into their backrow.

by maestegmafia Thu 15 Aug 2013, 3:47 pm

munkian wrote:Not that they relied on Isa or anything...

The Leinster squad can replace any of the positions Isa played in with talented enough players. It will be interesting to see how they prevail...

The ageing of the D'Arcy and O'Driscoll combo, the absence of Sexton and Nacewa will be a key factor that I guess many on here are seeing as possibly part of a down turn in Leinsters fortunes...?

Not sure the young guys being blooded into the Leinster team have shown that they are ready to full the older players boots...!

by Welshmushroom Thu 15 Aug 2013, 4:07 pm

Artful_Dodger wrote:Treviso for a playoff spot would be my outside/dark horse thinking. Especially with Van Niekerk coming into their backrow.

I think the Van Niekerk they have signed is a 23 year old centre, not the Toulon Back Rower who I think is still with them.

Vunisa looks a big unit in the backrow for them tipping the scale at 6'4 and 19st. They have some real big units at Zebre but fitness was a concern from what I saw of them last year. They seem to run out of gas late in the game. Leonard for them could be a great signing but equally a poor choice depending on the players motivation. Given that Tibaldi was actually quite able and the real problems related to a lack of quality behind and possession issues its a somewhat strange signing, especially when you look at the quality of scrum halves playing in Italy's second tier. Should have splashed the cash on a good Fly Half in my opinion as they lacked direction and a good kicker at times last year.

Cant see Zebre really pulling anything else off other than last place. I'm sure they will win some games this year but I'd be more inclined to believe Treviso to challenge for the top 4 instead. Looking at them I'm interested to see how Ferro goes for them. At 20 playing in the backrow weighing in at 6'6 and 20st, he's no doubt a beast. For Italy though they should lock to move that grunt into the second row where the lack of quality second rowers is apparent.

by Gibson Thu 15 Aug 2013, 9:30 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:Rumours of our death have been greatly exagerated.

We are just getting warmed up. Oh how they would love to see us fall.

We still have far too much for any team in the Bwitish Isles. And France. And most of the SH teams.

We want our Cup back. And we will have our Cup back. Its The Leinster Way.

Watch this space suckers.

by **profitius** Thu 15 Aug 2013, 10:15 pm

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:
profitius wrote:Heres who I think will be stronger or weaker this season in the pro 12. + (stronger), - (weaker), = (same)

= Ulster
- Leinster
= Glasgow
+ Edinburgh
= Ospreys
= Blues
= Scarlets
+ Dragons
= Treviso
+ Zebre
+ Connacht
+ Munster

I'm not 100% sure about the Welsh or Italian teams. Leinster are the only team who I think will be weaker this season than last season.
So that's five stronger teams and one weaker one.

Relatively which one of the stronger teams will be the surprise package?

I think Zebre will finish bottom again so no surprises there. Edinburgh have a new coach so should be stronger but they'll probably be down near the bottom again. Dragons have signed some good players and new coaches so they should improve. Connacht has strengthened their squad and have new coaches so they should also improve. Munster look stronger than last season too. Overall I reckon its between Dragons and Connacht.

by formerly known as Sam Thu 15 Aug 2013, 10:26 pm

Mushroom, the Italian union funds the franchises and I doubt they'd be happy with either signing non IQ 10s given the shortage of options for the national team. There are a few 9s and Leonard will force Tibaldi into improving if he wants to keep the shirt.

by Portnoy's Complaint Fri 16 Aug 2013, 8:25 am

Gibson wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:Rumours of our death have been greatly exagerated.
We are just getting warmed up. Oh how they would love to see us fall.

We still have far too much for any team in the Bwitish Isles. And France. And most of the SH teams.

We want our Cup back. And we will have our Cup back. Its The Leincester Way.

Watch this space suckers.

Well said Gibbo.
Just had to correct your fat finger typo. heart

by Welshmushroom Fri 16 Aug 2013, 8:59 am

formerly known as Sam wrote:Mushroom, the Italian union funds the franchises and I doubt they'd be happy with either signing non IQ 10s given the shortage of options for the national team. There are a few 9s and Leonard will force Tibaldi into improving if he wants to keep the shirt.

Will be a bit difficult now that Tibaldi has left and is playing for the Ospreys Very Happy

Are the Italian Union any happier about signing a non Italian scrum half? I doubt it. The difference between 9 and 10 for Italy is that they have 3/4 internationally capped scrum halves playing in their prem division so at least the depth is there. At 10 the cupboard is bare at the moment in Italy with not a lot of talent available. Even then you still need experience in that area to help them come through.

by formerly known as Sam Fri 16 Aug 2013, 11:25 am

Oquera is there as the experienced guide. Previous attempts at signing a foreign star les to Luke McLean....

I think they intend to back Italian options in that position. With Tibaldi at the Hairsprays there'll be two Italian 9s in action each week anyway which is the way they may have looked at it.

by munkian Fri 16 Aug 2013, 11:48 am

Cyril wrote:
munkian wrote:
Cyril wrote:Zebre will be bottom and Dragons 2nd bottom. Can't really see any surprises there.

Maybe Treviso to push up to the top 6?
Based on one particulary poor season ? I might as well burn my season ticket....
Just an opinion, but Dragons are the worst of the Welsh regions and a pretty poor outfit.

Don't burn your season ticket though. Welsh regions need all the fans they can get.

Well as opinion has about as much clout as the Aussie scrum I'm not too bothered Rolling Eyes

by HongKongCherry Fri 16 Aug 2013, 12:06 pm

Bathman_in_London wrote:Before the AP season has even started I think the winner is going to be one of Sarries or Leicester, so no dark horses in that department for me. Gloucester have a very good squad which for me has consistently under performed and for me should really be taking one of Northampton/Quins spots in the top 4.

Newcastle have a good looking squad and I think may well surprise some teams, finishing well clear of the drop.

I think that's a bit harsh to say we've consistently under-performed Bathman. I don't think we've been more than a mid-table side since Dean Ryan left and we started adhering to the salary cap. We've got a number of very promising youngsters who have been talked about for a few years, but ultimately they needed to get game time to fulfill that potential and I think only then can you have expectations of being a top 4 side. Last year I felt we were no more than a top 6 side and our end position justified that. I do feel we now have a squad that could and should challenge, so I would say now is the time we should be a top 4 side and anything less will be an under-performance. I still feel next year will be the big year for us as with the number of players coming out of contract, Nigel Davies will be able to shape the team to match his game time.

Personally I'm not sure there will be any dark horses this year in the Jeff. You can safely say Tigers and Sarries will be in the top 4; Quins, Saints, Glaws, Bath and Exeter fighting it out for the remaining spots in the top 6; Wasps and Sale in mid-table; and Newcastle, Wuss and Irish fighting for survival. I can't see any major surprises coming out of those groups.

by munkian Fri 16 Aug 2013, 12:17 pm

So Bristol coming up then ?

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Fri 16 Aug 2013, 1:10 pm

Clearly that is their ambition, munk, but I can't imagine that they'll have it all their own way - can see a couple of squads competing for the top slot this season

by munkian Fri 16 Aug 2013, 1:37 pm

Cool, be nice to have a Jeff team near me thumbsup

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