OWGR week 41

Quick OWGR update.

Event Ratings for this week:

32 - Portugal - European Tour
28 - Fry's.com - PGA Tour
16 - Toshin - Japan Tour
14 - KJ Choi Invitational - Asian Tour
12 - Nashan - One Asia Tour
6 - John Hughes - PGA Tour of Australia
6 - Puerto Rico - LatinoAmerica Tour
4 - Sunshine Vodacom event

ERV's for Euro and PGA Tours are:

158 = 131 + 27 -  Portugal (7 ERV over the 32 threshold)
128 = 124 + 4  -- Frys.Com (8 ERV shy of the 30 threshold)

After this week there will be no changes in the top-12, but Luke Donald will pass Jim Furyk for #13 and as GPB noted earlier, Charl Schwartzel will pass Lee Westwood for #19.  

No player in either Portugal or the Frys.com events can have an impact on the top-20, however Hideki Matsuyama could move up as high as #23 with a win at the Frys.com (and he's in contention going into the weekend).

Euro Contenders midway through round 3 in Portugal, Kaymer, Donaldson and Molinari, could each move as high as #31.  As I write this (before completion of R3), current leader  Scott Jamieson could move as high as #62.

Frys.com 2nd round leader Brooks Koepka could move as high as #51 with a win while current 2nd place Jason Kokrak could move inside the top-100 and as high as #91 with a win.

Thanks robo,
Would think Vegas will be up to a 32 next week, maybe higher with ZJohnson and Simpson among the protagonists.

Surprised that there is 13 player difference in World ERV in favor of Portugal. I think number of the top 100 players is the same.

27 Home ERV is surprising for Portugal.

kwinigolfer wrote:Thanks robo,
Would think Vegas will be up to a 32 next week, maybe higher with ZJohnson and Simpson among the protagonists.

I'm thinking better than that... just glancing... and already aware that perhaps 10 less Web.com playoff grads will make the field.... I'm thinking in the 36-38 range for Vegas.

GPB wrote:Surprised that there is 13 player difference in World ERV in favor of Portugal.  I think number of the top 100 players is the same.

27 Home ERV is surprising for Portugal.

Actually there are 20 top-100 in the Frys compared to 19 for Portugal, but Portugal's averaged a higher ranking. It came out 106 top-100 world points for Portugal compared to 82 top-100 world points for the Frys.   Also 25 #101-200 world points for Portugal, compared to 42 for the Frys.

I was surprised at the 27 Home points for Portugal as well.  IMO this is another one where home values skew things a bit.  Also I bet sum of averages would have these events real close... more in line with the 131-124 world point comparison

Portugal has 23 players ranked outside the top 500. 10 players outside the top 1000.

Since there are no complete newbies coming out of Web*com school, I doubt if Frys*com has more than 7 or 8 players outside the top 500. (Homa, C. Williams, Funk, Weir, Verplank)

Apparently Funk is going to use his top 50 exemption this season. Make the Web*commers further down on the totem pole.

I didn't count Funk as one of the 145 players with better status than the Web*commers.

GPB wrote:Portugal has 23 players ranked outside the top 500. 10 players outside the top 1000.

Since there are no complete newbies coming out of Web*com school, I doubt if Frys*com has more than 7 or 8 players outside the top 500.  (Homa, C. Williams, Funk, Weir, Verplank)

Apparently Funk is going to use his top 50 exemption this season.  Make the Web*commers further down on the totem pole.  

I didn't count Funk as one of the 145 players with better status than the Web*commers.

The Frys has 11 players ranked 500-900 and 9 more 900+ (7 of those 1000+)

And I kind of doubt that Funk will play much of a PGAT schedule.  This from an article at PGATour.com

He's going to play this week, the McGladrey Classic and the OHL Classic at Mayakoba, site of his last TOUR win in 2007. He'll also play heavily on the West Coast, he said, and then re-evaluate his schedule. He still plans to play heavily on the Champions Tour in 2014, but could make upwards of 17 starts on the PGA TOUR, as well.

"If I happen to have a couple good tournaments, then I'll play some more and if I keep doing OK, then I'll try to get in the top 125," Funk said. "And if not, then I'll enjoy the time I was out here and seeing all the guys."

My guess...  he goes ahead and plays his 3 in the fall and then 3 or 4 more on the West Coast as he plans... and when he "re-evaluates".... he'll  find this ain't quite as much fun as he remembered or thought it would be.  I give him a good shot at making a cut or two, but that's about it.    I'd put the over/under on his total PGAT starts at 10.   Course every one takes a spot...

robo,
Something completely different:
There's a motley crew turning up at The Woodlands next week, headed by Phillip Francis - are you going along?

kwinigolfer wrote:robo,
Something completely different:
There's a motley crew turning up at The Woodlands next week, headed by Phillip Francis - are you going along?

 No... I'm in Austin through at least the 29th... but I'm not even sure what you are talking about?

There's a Stage 1 qualie at the W.

kwinigolfer wrote:There's a Stage 1 qualie at the W.

  Ha... shows how "aware" I'm NOT.   I remember hearing about 6 months ago it was coming to the Woodlands Tournament Course (used to play a stage at Carlton Oaks)... but I hadn't heard a peep about it since.  I hope to get home for the weekend next... but it'll be over then... and having been away for 3 weeks already now... watching a web.commer stage 1 would be the LAST thing on my "punch list" if I do get home... :-)

David Lynn's win should be enough to guarantee him another invite from Billy Payne.

Lynn should go up to #37 or #38.  Stars would have to align against him to fall out of top 50 before year end.

Just looked at Golfweek's Sagarin Rankings. Steve Stricker has a stranglehold on the #1 in those rankings. He has a 0.53 point lead on #2 Adam Scott and 0.56 lead on Tiger.

Jimmy Walker will be in the mid forties now, so some Top 50 churn at last.

GPB wrote:Lynn should go up to #37 or #38.  Stars would have to align against him to fall out of top 50 before year end.

Just looked at Golfweek's Sagarin Rankings.  Steve Stricker has a stranglehold on the #1 in those rankings.  He has a 0.53 point lead on #2 Adam Scott and 0.56 lead on Tiger.

I haven't done a full ranking... but it looks like at best Lynn should just nose out Rickie Fowler for OWGR 33 by something like 3/10,000ths of a point (barring some other player having passed, which I don't think happened but I haven't verified)

kwinigolfer wrote:Jimmy Walker will be in the mid forties now, so some Top 50 churn at last.

Correct... Walker will slide in between Van Pelt and Ryan Moore for #43 before anyone else is considered... but Lynn and Donaldson will pass knocking Walker down at least 2 spots to at best #45 (there might be another player who passed that I haven't factored as I've not done a full analysis)

Robo: Took a closer look at the rankings, do you have any idea how Charl Schwartzel OWGR avg went from 4.434 to 4.600 from week 40 to week 41.

He didn't play a tournament and didn't lose a tournament on his divisor.

His net points went from 230.6 to 239.25.

You need eyes in the back of yr head these days!

It says on the owgr site that King Charl won the Nanshan China Masters last week. These Masters titles are beginning to pile up.

kwinigolfer wrote:You need eyes in the back of yr head these days!

It says on the owgr site that King Charl won the Nanshan China Masters last week. These Masters titles are beginning to pile up.

Why didn't I see that when I looked at the detail?

I might have clicked the wrong player.

Thanks, Kwini.

GPB wrote:Robo:  Took a closer look at the rankings, do you have any idea how Charl Schwartzel OWGR avg went from 4.434 to 4.600 from week 40 to week 41.

He didn't play a tournament and didn't lose a tournament on his divisor.

His net points went from 230.6 to 239.25.

I think there are errors in this weeks ranking.  I hadn't noticed Schwartzel... but I had noticed David Lynn and notified Ian.

Schwartzel SHOULD be 227.24521 points and average 4.3701.  That would put him 18th behind Sergio at #18 and above Westwood.  (both Westwood and Sergio are correct)

David Lynn should be at 148.70399 points and average 2.8597 which would just nose him above Fowler for #33.  I think Fowler is correct at 2.8594.

EDIT: RE strikeout above... Kwini is correct...  I didn't see that other event for Charl either...  the 4.6009 checks out with what I have...  but I still think David Lynn is incorrect.

Robo: Did Ian get back with you?

GPB wrote:Robo:  Did Ian get back with you?

No. he's normally real good at responding... and if he doesn't, someone else usually does.  I was just going to watch next week and see if it corrects itself. (but to be fair, I use the generic OWGR address for these kinds of inquires, I wouldn't use Ian's personal address for this, so he might not have seen my query)