OWGR Week 44

Here's an update on the projected rankings for week 44

Highlights...

• Only change in the top-10 is Mickelson and Stenson switching positions at #3 - 4
  
• Dustin Johnson moves up to #12 from #23
  
• Poulter Moves into top-20 at #17
  
• GMac up a spot to #11
  
• Kaymer likely solidifies year end top-50 status at #34
  
• Paul Casey rejoins top-100 @ #97... Marcus Fraser falls out.
  
• HSBC Rates out at 66 - up two from last year.
  
• ( ) = Last Week ranking
  

1 - ( 1 ) - 12.3363 - Tiger Woods
2 - ( 2 ) - 8.8214 - Adam Scott
3 - ( 4 ) - 7.9980 - Henrik Stenson
4 - ( 3 ) - 7.9078 - Phil Mickelson
5 - ( 5 ) - 7.5050 - Justin Rose
6 - ( 6 ) - 6.7674 - Rory McIlroy
7 - ( 7 ) - 6.3885 - Steve Stricker
8 - ( 8 ) - 6.2962 - Matt Kuchar
9 - ( 9 ) - 6.0648 - Brandt Snedeker
10 - ( 10 ) - 5.6793 - Jason Dufner
11 - ( 12 ) - 5.4370 - Graeme McDowell
12 - ( 23 ) - 5.3090 - Dustin Johnson
13 - ( 11 ) - 5.1529 - Zach Johnson
14 - ( 13 ) - 4.9495 - Jim Furyk
15 - ( 15 ) - 4.9341 - Keegan Bradley
16 - ( 14 ) - 4.7594 - Luke Donald
17 - ( 22 ) - 4.7233 - Ian Poulter
18 - ( 19 ) - 4.6739 - Sergio Garcia
19 - ( 16 ) - 4.6402 - Webb Simpson
20 - ( 17 ) - 4.6394 - Jason Day
21 - ( 18 ) - 4.4008 - Charl Schwartzel
22 - ( 20 ) - 4.3707 - Jordan Spieth
23 - ( 21 ) - 4.0821 - Lee Westwood
24 - ( 24 ) - 4.0767 - Ernie Els
25 - ( 25 ) - 3.7355 - Bill Haas
26 - ( 29 ) - 3.7078 - Bubba Watson
27 - ( 27 ) - 3.7025 - Nick Watney
28 - ( 26 ) - 3.6619 - Hunter Mahan
29 - ( 28 ) - 3.6562 - Hideki Matsuyama
30 - ( 30 ) - 3.5321 - Louis Oosthuizen
31 - ( 31 ) - 3.4341 - Ryan Moore
32 - ( 33 ) - 3.1277 - Graham Delaet
33 - ( 32 ) - 2.9644 - Gonzalo Fdez-Castano
34 - ( 41 ) - 2.8728 - Martin Kaymer
35 - ( 34 ) - 2.8707 - Matteo Manassero
36 - ( 35 ) - 2.8664 - Billy Horschel
37 - ( 37 ) - 2.8080 - Francesco Molinari
38 - ( 39 ) - 2.7725 - David Lynn
39 - ( 38 ) - 2.7492 - Jonas Blixt
40 - ( 42 ) - 2.7425 - Kevin Streelman
41 - ( 47 ) - 2.7395 - Jamie Donaldson
42 - ( 40 ) - 2.7324 - Jimmy Walker
43 - ( 36 ) - 2.7291 - Rickie Fowler
44 - ( 43 ) - 2.6994 - Peter Hanson
45 - ( 46 ) - 2.6166 - Scott Piercy
46 - ( 44 ) - 2.6123 - Thomas Bjorn
47 - ( 48 ) - 2.5868 - Bo Van Pelt
48 - ( 45 ) - 2.5527 - Richard Sterne
49 - ( 49 ) - 2.5208 - Thongchai Jaidee
50 - ( 52 ) - 2.4837 - Boo Weekley
51 - ( 50 ) - 2.4830 - Branden Grace
52 - ( 51 ) - 2.4297 - Miguel A Jimenez
53 - ( 53 ) - 2.2977 - Gary Woodland
54 - ( 54 ) - 2.2488 - Bernd Wiesberger
55 - ( 55 ) - 2.2251 - Thorbjorn Olesen
56 - ( 57 ) - 2.2231 - Angel Cabrera
57 - ( 56 ) - 2.1963 - D.A. Points
58 - ( 58 ) - 2.1456 - Nicolas Colsaerts
59 - ( 59 ) - 2.1433 - Stephen Gallacher
60 - ( 60 ) - 2.1300 - Peter Uihlein
61 - ( 62 ) - 2.1279 - Joost Luiten
62 - ( 61 ) - 2.0738 - Michael Thompson
63 - ( 63 ) - 2.0473 - Robert Garrigus
64 - ( 64 ) - 2.0213 - Roberto Castro
65 - ( 66 ) - 2.0176 - Kiradech Aphibarnrat
66 - ( 65 ) - 2.0071 - Harris English
67 - ( 67 ) - 1.9846 - Luke Guthrie
68 - ( 68 ) - 1.9778 - Marc Leishman
69 - ( 70 ) - 1.9760 - Patrick Reed
70 - ( 69 ) - 1.9675 - Brendon de Jonge
71 - ( 71 ) - 1.9559 - Chris Wood
72 - ( 73 ) - 1.9159 - Shane Lowry
73 - ( 72 ) - 1.9027 - Martin Laird
74 - ( 74 ) - 1.8665 - Brett Rumford
75 - ( 76 ) - 1.8565 - Charles Howell-III
76 - ( 75 ) - 1.8384 - Carl Pettersson
77 - ( 77 ) - 1.8195 - Tim Clark
78 - ( 81 ) - 1.8097 - Marcel Siem
79 - ( 78 ) - 1.8081 - Russell Henley
80 - ( 82 ) - 1.7918 - Fredrik Jacobson
81 - ( 83 ) - 1.7898 - Mikko Ilonen
82 - ( 79 ) - 1.7844 - John Merrick
83 - ( 80 ) - 1.7639 - Paul Lawrie
84 - ( 85 ) - 1.7538 - Alexander Noren
85 - ( 84 ) - 1.7396 - Chris Stroud
86 - ( 86 ) - 1.7247 - Brooks Koepka
87 - ( 87 ) - 1.7027 - John Huh
88 - ( 88 ) - 1.6910 - Scott Stallings
89 - ( 89 ) - 1.6790 - Charley Hoffman
90 - ( 91 ) - 1.6781 - Koumei Oda
91 - ( 90 ) - 1.6644 - Ken Duke
92 - ( 93 ) - 1.6612 - Pablo Larrazabal
93 - ( 94 ) - 1.6588 - Chris Kirk
94 - ( 97 ) - 1.6545 - Matthew Jones
95 - ( 95 ) - 1.6530 - Ross Fisher
96 - ( 92 ) - 1.6425 - Park Sung-Joon
97 - ( 104 ) - 1.6371 - Paul Casey
98 - ( 96 ) - 1.6349 - George Coetzee
99 - ( 99 ) - 1.6266 - David Howell
100 - ( 98 ) - 1.6189 - David Toms
101 - ( 101 ) - 1.6184 - Kevin Chappell
102 - ( 100 ) - 1.6106 - Marcus Fraser
103 - ( 102 ) - 1.6092 - David Lingmerth
104 - ( 103 ) - 1.5956 - Chesson Hadley
105 - ( 111 ) - 1.5838 - Kim Hyung-sung

Strange to have two large gaps well down the rankings

There is 0.34 difference between #24 and #25.
There is 0.31 difference between #31 and #32.

There is only 0.12 difference between #16 and #20.

GPB wrote:Strange to have two large gaps well down the rankings

There is 0.34 difference between #24 and #25.
There is 0.31 difference between #31 and #32.

There is only 0.12 difference between #16 and #20.

Yeah... I'd noticed a big gap around #30 last week when you brought up Moore moving to #31 regardless if he finished 1st or 2nd.  Something like 3/4 of a point gap between #'s 30-31 for a few weeks there.

EDIT: And by the way... the Turkish Airlines Open looks like it'll be a 52-54... probably 54.

Would have thought the Top 40 can pretty safely expect to receive an rsvp in the mail from Billy Payne, but Rickie Fowler must be among those in the forties who might think about sending Tiger an early Xmas Card begging for inclusion in the Sherwood field.
 
BVP looking even shakier; what's gone wrong with his form?

Edit: I see Rickie Fowler's playing this week on the Gold Coast. Good move, in lots of ways!

 robo,
On a more general level, this season of high value tournaments isn't really throwing up serious interlopers to the Top 30 - GPB's observations from earlier this year are pretty much being borne out this autumn as well. Only Stenson, Spieth and Matsuyama have really made a mark from well outside the top players.

With about 4 or 5 tournaments apiece in Oz and S.Africa, there's still the chance for someone to sneak up the rankings, or get out of their free fall, such as Grace and Coetzee.

One man who's slipped a lot since he left Glen Abbey in the lead is Hunter Mahan - would think he'll only have the Tiger tournament to stop from sliding even further by year's end.

Kwini, there does seem to be a line of demarcation at around OWGR 30.  

World Class Elite players vs Near Elite players

Stenson and Spieth crashed through that barrier, Hideki should pass through it soon as soon as he populates his resume.

Bill Haas is a player that I consider a straddler of that line.  And he remains the only "near elite" player that won a tournament this year until Ryan Moore won CIMB.

The rest of the winners either have been inside the top 30, or outside the "WGC bubble".  Players not eligible for a WGC.

It is more circumstantial evidence that there is a bigger talent gap between Elite (OWGR #1-#30) and Near Elite (OWGR 30-60) players than there is between Near Elite and Players ranked #100-#300).

Yes, Robo, I realize that journeyman players have more opportunity to win tournaments because there are more of them.

kwinigolfer wrote: robo,
On a more general level, this season of high value tournaments isn't really throwing up serious interlopers to the Top 30 - GPB's observations from earlier this year are pretty much being borne out this autumn as well. Only Stenson, Spieth and Matsuyama have really made a mark from well outside the top players.

Thanks Kwini,

Yep... this year certainly does appear to be is an oddity as far as OWGR top-30 volatility (or lack there of)...  

Consider:  Here are the 6 past years we can go back and easily check (using the OWGR year ending ranking)   The number to the right is the count of players that started the given year outside the top-30, but finished inside the top-30 at years end.  The percentage is turnover rate inside the top-30

2007 - 12 (40%)
2008 - 12 (40%)
2009 - 10 (33%)
2010 - 13 (43%)
2011 - 13 (43%)
2012 - 10 (33%)
2013 - 5  (17% through week 43)

Bottom line: In all 6 of those prior years the turnover in the OWGR was 33% or higher. In 2013 it's running 17% as of the week 43 ranking.  
Perhaps this year there just happened to be a whole lot of "Zach Johnson's"    who always seemed to do just enough to stay in the top-30... but I'm guessing this year is will likely prove to be just "happenstance" and probably goes back to more the "norm" next year.

Aussie PGA field includes Fowler, Leishman, Scott and Sneds.
Poor otherwise though, nervous nelly Aussies plaing McGladrey instead of joining their web.com contingent in Queensland.

Probably a safe bet that Jason Day will not be playing in Australia again this year.

I think he has played one tournament (besides the Prez Cup) in Australia since he became exempt on PGAT.  And that was the Aussie Open played right before the Prez Cup.

Snedeker pulls the ripcord (thanks BG) on participation at Aussie PGA, citing knee injury.

Edit: Sounds like Snedeker could be out for a while, participation in the Sherwood Woods shindig could be in jeopardy. Not the time to mess around with a dodgy knee; sure he'd want to be a "go" for defending his title at Pebble Beach.

Anyone have any idea what Finchem's called a news conference for today?
Perhaps an alliance with the Sunshine Tour? Or the Australasian circuit?
No clue.

kwinigolfer wrote:Anyone have any idea what Finchem's called a news conference for today?
Perhaps an alliance with the Sunshine Tour? Or the Australasian circuit?
No clue.

Player's Championship increasing to $10 Million

and joint initiatives with the PGA of America

http://www.pgatour.com/news/2013/11/06/finchem--bishop-discuss-new-initiatives.html

Adam Scott did the business Down Under; Rickie Fowler 2nd, which should earn him a letter from Billy Payne.

A note in the mail from Billy Payne to Jamie Donaldson also, would think Dubuisson might get one too, but not sure about that. Defo in the MatchPlay though.

GPB,
Jason Day certainly will be playing in Australia - at least in the World Cup and presumably in the Aussie Open or Masters as well.

Jason Day is not playing the Aussie Masters which is this week.

Jarrod Lyle is making his comeback.  Best Wishes to him.

Vijay and de Jonge are making the Trek from McGladreys to OZ and Casey Wittenburg is also playing.

I didn't know Jason Day was playing the World Cup.  And The OZ Open website does show him as entered.

GPB wrote:I didn't know Jason Day was playing the World Cup.  And The OZ Open website does show him as entered.

I think Day is playing the Australian Open, 2nd player listed here:  http://www.golf.org.au/default.aspx?s=mao_playerinfo

The PDF of the full field they have online (as of just a minute ago) still seems to be the 2012 field.

robo,
Have you been to a tournament at Sea Island? Looks like I imagine Long Cove Club must be - too private for me to find out apparently!

McGladrey one of my fave tournaments to watch; don't know much about Chris Kirk but he seems to have all the ingredients (not sure about hard work?) to reach the next level.

kwinigolfer wrote:robo,
Have you been to a tournament at Sea Island? Looks like I imagine Long Cove Club must be - too private for me to find out apparently!

McGladrey one of my fave tournaments to watch; don't know much about Chris Kirk but he seems to have all the ingredients (not sure about hard work?) to reach the next level.

Yeah... I went the first year of the McGladrey. Hate to be a "Debbie Downer"... but on the ground, the course wasn't near as impressive to me as it looks from the stunning overhead visuals.  And tough to walk on the weekends.... lot of choke points which made getting the gallery around tough.  Also that first year there were quite a few logistic snafu's just getting to the course... and we were billeted over in Brunswick which made getting back and forth even tougher....  so that took the luster off a bit as well...

EDIT: And as for Kirk... really can't tell you much about him.  From my limited exposure to him on venue... he seems no more, no less of a "worker" than anybody else from what I could tell.  But a pleasant enough guy from all I could tell.... I'm admittedly no swing guru, so I couldn't say I ever recognized anything about the guy that made me think..."wow" this guy could be really good.... or at least not any more than I could say about 100 others..

 
Thanks,
I suppose that's the good news and bad news for courses:
Good that they weren't built for tournaments.
Bad that they weren't built for spectators!
(Oak Hill also has too many choke points these days too.)

Kwini... but I would like to add something on Briny Baird.  That's a guy I've gotten to know pretty well over the years and I can't tell you how impressed I am with him.  If there was EVER a guy who has made it on tour via pure determination and hard work, he's the poster child.   IMO if you take natural talent level... he's probably NGA Tour level at best.  But he's fashioned a darn fine career despite not being blessed with raw athleticism or natural gifts.

I know... I know... a lot of people think he's just a "no talent, no-win loser" kind of a guy taking up space. But for my money, I'll take a dozen guys like him, who I feel get every single ounce of what talent they have, over a bunch of the bigger names any day.   But sheesh...  it still hurts to see him do what he did this weekend.  I really thought maybe THIS time was FINALLY gonna be his.  Oh well... at least he made is major medical terms... and that's a lot less of a common occurrence than people think it is.

Surprised at how much Westwood and Donald have fallen down the rankings tbh.

This week will hopefully produce a good result for Westy.

But otherwise you're right sirb, both doing a "Baumgarter".

robopz wrote:

GPB wrote:I didn't know Jason Day was playing the World Cup.  And The OZ Open website does show him as entered.

I think Day is playing the Australian Open, 2nd player listed here:  http://www.golf.org.au/default.aspx?s=mao_playerinfo

The PDF of the full field they have online (as of just a minute ago) still seems to be the 2012 field.

Yes, Jason Day is playing in the OZ Open as I indicated in my post.

GPB wrote:Yes, Jason Day is playing in the OZ Open as I indicated in my post.

OOPS... sorry... misread on my part... Guess I picked a bad week to stop sniffing glue.... :-)