Djokovic's big point problem

It is interesting that Novak has throughout the last couple of seasons established himself as one of the best big match and big point players in the game. The four match points he saved against Tsonga, "the shot" that he against Federer but this season a very disturbing trend has surfaced that frankly I don't know what to make other than to say that it is a creeping lack of confidence and belief in crucial situations or a lack of focus. Nadal has played tremendously throughout his career on big points, who can forget 17 or so BPs he saved against Federer in 08 wimby final? But this season Novak has wasted a mountain of break points and really for as great a returner as he is this number is perplexing and disturbing. In addition, for a player with one of the best second serves on tour he has not defended his own break points particularly well.

Nadal this year is both #2 on tour in BPs saved and conversely in BP's converted he is also #2 on tour. Meanwhile Djokovic ranks 14th in BPs converted and 18th in saving his own break points, even loveable Ernie Gulbis has saved a bigger percentage of break points than Djokovic. This in my mind is the difference between the #1 ranking and 2 or 3 slams for Djokovic and #2 ranking and disappointing slam final losses. In short, the difference in their rivalry vis a vis 2011 and 2013 can basically be summed up in these two numbers.

I actually think in many ways Novak is a better ball striker today than even in 2011, but for some reason he is not as good a competitor. He is getting more freebies on his first serve, his ace numbers are significantly better and he is double faulting less now than he was 2011. He is more and more comfortable at net and ventures in more often. Yet, the mountain of BPs he has wasted this year have come back to haunt him. He is converting 5 percentage points less break points in 2013 than in 2011. Ad for the life of me I think it comes down to just focus and belief I can't think of another reason.

I agree completely. I've been going on about his BP conversion all year but I hadn't realised his BP saving was so low too.

I think it's more than a big point problem, it's a big match problem. His slam performance Post AO12:
RG12 v Rafa. Awful. Remember the DFs?
W12 v Fed. Really flat.
US12 v Andy. Flat.
AO13 v Andy. Slow start but turned it round v a fading opponent.
RG13 v Rafa. Horribly inconsistent. 5-0 down in the 3rd.
W13 v Andy. Awful.
US13 v Rafa. Inconsistent.

There's a definite trend of playing well all tournament and then being flat for the big match. I just don't understand it.

Djoko also wants to end points quicker vs nadal.
HE is is not nearly as willing to just rally with him as he reached his ceiling in aus '12 and hasn't wanted to go back there, but nadal for me has the physical edge, meaning he has the mental edge now, something he didn't have in '11.

HM Murdoch wrote:I agree completely. I've been going on about his BP conversion all year but I hadn't realised his BP saving was so low too.

I think it's more than a big point problem, it's a big match problem. His slam performance Post AO12:
RG12 v Rafa. Awful. Remember the DFs?
W12 v Fed. Really flat.
US12 v Andy. Flat.
AO13 v Andy. Slow start but turned it round v a fading opponent.
RG13 v Rafa. Horribly inconsistent. 5-0 down in the 3rd.
W13 v Andy. Awful.
US13 v Rafa. Inconsistent.

There's a definite trend of playing well all tournament and then being flat for the big match. I just don't understand it.

I agree, but in those long 5 set matches those are the players that can capitalize and have the ability to snatch the match if you don't take it. He wastes BPs in other matches as well but against other lesser players they don't have the ability to see it through and take the match. I mean the whole RG turned for him because of one lousy smash and break point that he played after that smash. For some reason although in some ways he is a better player he has lacked belief and focus and is a poorer competitor this year than he was 2011.

I agree, I think he is a better player than he was in 11. The net play and improvement in the serve alone bring a whole new dimension to his game.

You may be right about the quality of players he is missing the BPs against. I remember even against Bobby Reynolds at Wimbledon he had 18 BPs but only converted 4 of them! He gets away with it then but do it against the top guys and he's sunk.

I'd love to know the cause of it. He seemed to lose a little belief after AO12, which was the most successful period of his career - 3 slams in a row! He should have been bursting with confidence!

I think he lost his belief at RG that year when for long stretches he out played Nadal in that final and laid an egg the next day when play resumed. And this year the loss at RG was even more damaging because he was up in the 5th set and should have beat Nadal but lost the match in the most painful of circumstances. I mean he ran Nadal from side to side and hit at least 100 balls it seemed that it was humanly impossible for any man to get to but Nadal kept getting it back. I think he put too much weight on the RG this last two years, he needs to just look at that tournament like any other slam instead of making it psychologically the make or break point of his season, what happens if you don't win. Novak is consistent but oddly he is also very streaky and plays with his heart on his sleeve, he plays with emotion and when he can't answer the bell emotionally his game suffers.

It's funny, I'm still not sure if I consider him 'consistent'.

14 slam semi finals in a row is very consistent.

But his performance levels during a match can be all over the place!

Still, at least it's not dull following him!

Incidentally, I'm encouraged to hear that he's not peddling the 'RG is my focus' line any more.

All he's saying now is he wants slam titles. That's a wise approach.

HM Murdoch wrote:It's funny, I'm still not sure if I consider him 'consistent'.

14 slam semi finals in a row is very consistent.

But his performance levels during a match can be all over the place!

Still, at least it's not dull following him!

That is the thing Murdoch, I mean even a poor Djokovic seems to be so much better than the chasing pack that he can grind out results, but his level of play has a great deal of ups and downs. And only top players can take advantage of his downs and beat him. I mean he is something like 60 plus wins in a row against players ranked outside of the top 4 at slams. Even in a single match he has a lot of swings to his play. I mean it seems like he often just gifts a break to his opponent at the start of his matches because he starts slowly or has a dip in the second set. I mean it is not like the other guy takes it from him, he makes three or four bad errors in quick succession when he is often on top of the point, the short forehand goes off or he picks the wrong time to try a drop shot and there you go there is a break. For a player who has consistently garnered results and quality results since 2007 he is very streaky, hence the great comebacks and lengthy 5 set wars he finds himself in more so than almost any other player.

LuvSports! wrote:Djoko also wants to end points quicker vs nadal.
HE is is not nearly as willing to just rally with him as he reached his ceiling in aus '12 and hasn't wanted to go back there, but nadal for me has the physical edge, meaning he has the mental edge now, something he didn't have in '11.

That was certainly true in the recent London final. Djoko was going for lots of winners and it paid off against, for me, a poor-moving, rather flat Rafa. I think also that this is actually bad news for Rafa and others, as I feel Djoko can easily outrally anybody but chose to conserve energy (with the DC coming up, remember) by going for winners knowing he had a good chance of winning that way, too.

He lost the fo'12 & 13 and US open as he couldn't go toe to toe physically with rafa like he could in 2011/aus 2012.
Therefore he went for shortening the point which led to wayyyyy more errors, this plays into nadal's hands.
B03 he can do it but B05 no he cannot! Even at times he has tried to go for the winner too soon in bo3 whereas back in IW, miami, madrid, rome etc he played the patient game.

LuvSports! wrote:He lost the fo'12 & 13 and US open as he couldn't go toe to toe physically with rafa like he could in 2011/aus 2012.
Therefore he went for shortening the point which led to wayyyyy more errors, this plays into nadal's hands.
B03 he can do it but B05 no he cannot! Even at times he has tried to go for the winner too soon in bo3 whereas back in IW, miami, madrid, rome etc he played the patient game.

Right tactics for London, though, where Rafa's movement and ball striking is never at its best. No wonder he wants the WTF to be played elsewhere. Don't know why Nole wants it moved, however.

LuvSports! wrote:He lost the fo'12 & 13 and US open as he couldn't go toe to toe physically with rafa like he could in 2011/aus 2012.

I don't agree with this. At RG, the errors weren't coming from trying to shorten points, that were just poor play.

And he lost the US this year because Rafa was awesome on the day.

The only match I've seen Novak mess up by trying to end points early was Wimbledon this year v Andy with all those poor drop shots.

LuvSports! wrote:He lost the fo'12 & 13 and US open as he couldn't go toe to toe physically with rafa like he could in 2011/aus 2012.
Therefore he went for shortening the point which led to wayyyyy more errors, this plays into nadal's hands.
B03 he can do it but B05 no he cannot! Even at times he has tried to go for the winner too soon in bo3 whereas back in IW, miami, madrid, rome etc he played the patient game.

Interesting theory it could explain how with less pressure and less fitness concerns in Bo3 Djokovic is 3-0 in those matchups against Nadal and 0-2 this season in five setters. But honestly I don't know in the match at RG I didn't think Novak was tired in the fifth set, lets be honest he choked, maybe he wanted it too much?

He made so many errors because he was unwilling to go the distance physically as he did two years previously.
I think its very axiomatic with some of the shots djoko was going for, that wasn't the case at wimby '11 or us open '11.
For me its more about novak's level than rafa's.

I think a good example was when novak won that 54 shot rally, suffered because of it and lost his next service game. He simply didn't have the fitness nadal had and one that he had in '11.

All of this stems from not being able to match nadal fitness wise. Long rally after long rally novak used to beat nadal, that isn't the case now.

I don't think Novak's recent shortcomings are fitness related. More a sense of not being able to hold himself together when the occasion calls for it. In 2011 he was an remorseless ass kicker. It is only in recent months he has started to show that solid mentality that served him so well in 2011.

In tennis not all points are equal. You can win more points than your opponent but still lose the match. Big points are important and it is how they are handled that makes the difference. It is far easier to hit beautiful, highly skillful or killer shots when there is less pressure. In fact the difference between the top pro's and the also rans is the ability to be able to play the best when it really matters. If it is a problem it is not a small easily fixed problem it is a big problem.

I would say Djokovic is doing OK. But it is interesting in this context how he was criticized by Federer for the way he played a particular "big point" against him. What did Federer say? Something like that was not how he expected a player as good as Djokovic to play such a big point

socal1976 wrote:

LuvSports! wrote:He lost the fo'12 & 13 and US open as he couldn't go toe to toe physically with rafa like he could in 2011/aus 2012.
Therefore he went for shortening the point which led to wayyyyy more errors, this plays into nadal's hands.
B03 he can do it but B05 no he cannot! Even at times he has tried to go for the winner too soon in bo3 whereas back in IW, miami, madrid, rome etc he played the patient game.

Interesting theory it could explain how with less pressure and less fitness concerns in Bo3 Djokovic is 3-0 in those matchups against Nadal and 0-2 this season in five setters. But honestly I don't know in the match at RG I didn't think Novak was tired in the fifth set, lets be honest he choked, maybe he wanted it too much?

I think that FO error was actually a very small error of judgement (not a choke), but it had very large consequences.

Interesting article. I still think he does OK on match point down, remember Murray serving at 40-0 in the Wimbledon final and nearly lost it, at least two of those points were winners from Djokovic as well. So maybe the focus in general is the issue, rather than the really big points. However's this year's stats are interesting.

Yes I agree HB he plays tough match point down but often when you are put into those match point situations it is a little too late to be mounting a comeback. I agree I think a great deal of it comes down to lack of focus, poor shot selection and poor errors often when he is on top of the point. If the other guy blazes a bunch of winners or hits great returns and you get broken that is one thing. But flubbing overheads, poor drop shots in the net, or missing short forehands from the service line are more often than cause of his broken serves than the brilliance of his opponent.

Against Berdych in DC 2013, Set 1 - 1/10 BPs, Set 2 0/0 BPs, Set 3 2/2.

legendkillarV2 wrote:I don't think Novak's recent shortcomings are fitness related. More a sense of not being able to hold himself together when the occasion calls for it. In 2011 he was an remorseless ass kicker. It is only in recent months he has started to show that solid mentality that served him so well in 2011.

I don't think LuvSports means fitness as such. I think he means that when Rafa and Novak played AO'12, they dug to their physical depths, through the "wall" to the point where they could push no further. Novak could physically deal with this and has the winning attitude to mentally do it to, especially when it was a choice between going into that dark place with Rafa or losing. The thing is, even though he could do it, it would have hurt physically, mentally and emotionally. And Djokovic now knows how much going that deep will go and that is a huge incentive to avoid ever having to do that again. The fact that you have done it before isn't helpful because you know you never ever want to again. Whilst (not literally) Nadal seems to have a little more of the masochist in his approach, and he seems to be much more about literally playing every single point in isolation and avoiding the contextual pain of going so deep.

This is all supposition, and I am merely trying to say what I think LuvSports means, this is not exactly what I think the issue is, but it does fit in with what I have experienced in running and rowing

I don't think Djokovic is scared to go there with Nadal, I think Novak is being smart in working to shorten points quicker in rallies, which will help him maintain his fitness, win later in his career, and be more versatile and unpredictable now. He is smart enough to know that it will be hard to maintain these brutal long points the older and slower he becomes. Right now he is at pretty much peak fitness and ahtleticism but he won't always be like that. That is why I think he has worked so hard to volley better and more often and to get more free points on his serve. He is not doing this because he is scared to go the distance with Nadal, I see this as a much more general strategy for improving as player and lengthening his career for the longterm.

I do think the work that Novak has put into, and subsequent huge improvement in, net play and serve was a direct response to that AO final. He realised he had to have ways of winning points quicker. He needed options other than simply being the last man standing.

It's taken a long time but his play around the net is really looking very good now and his percentages there are very good too.

He's got the tools and the game now for a great year in 2014. I just can't shake the feeling that '12 and '13 were his big chance to get results that would elevate him to the highest echelons in historical terms - 10+ slams - and he rather fluffed his lines.

I think Novak's career objective has to be to get to 10 slams. If he can get there, that would be an amazing accomplishment. I believe he can reach that goal, if he was to do that while also winning the French open, he would have to be in the top 5 - 10 of all time in my opinion. Particularly given how many masters series he has also won in such a tough era, not to mention winning 3 Tour finals and Davis Cup and an olympic medal.

Can definitely see him winning couple more oz opens and possible couple of US opens. I also believe he will win the French Open some day. Grass is his weakest surface but wouldnt bother me as much if he didnt win another Wimbledon.