I Think I Can, I Know I Can... It Will Happen Next Year

Djokovic has now got it all figured out. Nobody beats him six times in a row. Next year he's sure he will get his hands on La Coupe Des Mousquetaires

....

Novak Djokovic is poised to end Rafael Nadal's four-year reign at the French Open.

Sport.co.uk reported that the world's No. 2 tennis player thinks he has learned the secret to beating Nadal, the top-ranked men's player on his favorite surface. Nadal has won eight French Open titles, including four straight.

Nadal defeated Djokovic in an epic five-set semifinal on the clay at Roland Garros in 2013, 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7 (3), 9-7 en route to his record eighth French Open championship.

"What happened, and everything happens for a reason," said Djokovic. "Those losses that I had against Nadal in the big matches made me understand what I need to do to become a better and stronger player. That's all that matters now"

"I won over 20 matches in a row so with all the confidence that's given me, I'm heading into the new season feeling great," Djokovic said, "and hopefully this can be the year for me where I can challenge Rafa at Roland Garros."

http://www.sportsworldnews.com/articles/7268/20131204/djokovic-nadal-rivalry-novak-djokovic-discovered-how-to-beat-rafael-nadal-if-they-meet-at-french-open-video.htm

  

What I like about that story is that the headline bears absolutely no relation to what Djokovic said in the quotes they give. 'Journalists', eh? Useless bunch, most of them.

6 times in a row?

Luvsports. Nadal has beaten Djokovic 5 times at RG. Djokovic is hoping it won't be 6.

He said a couple of weeks ago that he lost 3 slam finals and had learnt from them and was confident he would do better in those matches should the opportunity arise.

So this isn't new, or anything he shouldn't say. I'm pretty sure his focus right now - like all the players -is the australian open, rather than a tournament 6 months away.

Danny_1982 wrote:He said a couple of weeks ago that he lost 3 slam finals and had learnt from them and was confident he would do better in those matches should the opportunity arise.

So this isn't new, or anything he shouldn't say. I'm pretty sure his focus right now - like all the players -is the australian open, rather than a tournament 6 months away.

True, although if Rafa beats Djoko in the AO final, the only logical explanation will be that Djoko's mind wasn't really on it, because he was pre-occupied by the 'holy grail' tm. On the other hand, if he beats Rafa in the AO final, it will be remarkable, given that his mind is mainly on the 'holy grail' tm

TM hawkeye

... And if someone other than Rafa or Novak win in Australia, they've only done so because those two were focussed on the holy grail.

And presumably that achievement will be diluted anyway. I mean, what title compares to the holy grail?!

Danny_ I had a quick look. Nothing reported about his wishes for the AO but more about the holy grail...

Novak Djokovic: I can challenge Rafael Nadal for the French Open title

http://www.tennisearth.com/news/tennisNews/Novak-Djokovic-I-can-challenge-Rafael-Nadal-for-the-French-Open-Title-526845.htm

Novak Djokovic "hopeful" for beating Rafael Nadal at the French Open 2014

http://www.sport.co.uk/tennis/novak-djokovic-hopeful-for-beating-rafael-nadal-at-french/4513031/

or Novak Djokovic aims to beat Rafael Nadal at French Open

http://www.latinopost.com/articles/1672/20131203/tennis-tennis-news-2013-novak-djokovic-rafael-nadal-french-open-tennis-french-open-2014.htm

Is that enough?

Julious. Why do you think all those "useless" journalists insist on reporting Djokovic's hopes regarding the FO but (according to you?) keeping Djokovics wishes regarding other tournaments from us?

Julius. Thank you for using my TM. This is something I had applied for but until know was unaware of it being granted

This was a couple of weeks ago, his interview after WTF:

"The Grand Slams are the tournaments where I want to win, where I want to get my hands on the title," he said.

"That will be my highest priority for next year."
Djokovic lost in the semi-finals at the French Open and the finals of Wimbledon and the US Open in 2013, before finishing the ATP season with a superb run.

"It was very satisfying," he said. "After the last two and a half months, even more.

"But the only thing I'm not as satisfied about is the fact that I lost the three big matches in the three Grand Slams."

Annoyingly, he seems to want more than just the holy grail. How weird of him. Does he not realise that's the only one that matters?

hawkeye wrote:
Julious. Why do you think all those "useless" journalists insist on reporting Djokovic's hopes regarding the FO but (according to you?) keeping Djokovics wishes regarding other tournaments from us?

I would imagine that asking Djoko "Can you win the AO this year?" wouldn't be much of a story - "Er, yes, I can since I won it last year...and the year before that....and the year before that". they need an angle to sell the story. Thus when Djoko says "Hopefully I can challenge at the FO" it gets re-worded as "Djoko claims he knows how to beat Rafa at the FO". Useless journalism. Or good journalism, if the sole purpose is to sell the story at the expense of the truth.

Great headline writing.

Presumably Novak's actual comment of "the losses made me understand what I need to do to be a better player" wasn't dramatic enough and had to be upgraded to "I've learned the secret of beating Rafa".

My favourite one was "Novak Djokovic Aims To Beat Rafael Nadal at French Open 2014". Wow, and there I was thinking he was aiming to lose to Rafa!

Djokovic wants the French Open most, because it's the missing one, it's clay, it's Rafa's most dominant one.

It can get under players skin, wanting this. Happened to Agassi, Federer and Sampras, and his defeat there was Mcenroe's biggest regret.

I think Djokovic can do it.

The headline is reasonably faithful to the article as it happens, I've seen a lot worse.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AIdXisPqHc&ei=5rugUtDxFZOR0QXy1IG4Bw&sa=X&ved=0CAsQqwQ&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D6AIdXisPqHc%26sa%3DX%26ei%3D5rugUtDxFZOR0QXy1IG4Bw%26ved%3D0CAsQqwQ

I have it on good authority that Nole plays this every night while completing a training montage similar to this,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=bu00RiPjaa4&sa=X&ved=0CBAQqwQ&ei=RLygUuTsEeSh0QXfkYGQDg&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dbu00RiPjaa4%26sa%3DX%26ei%3DRLygUuTsEeSh0QXfkYGQDg%26ved%3D0CBAQqwQ

If the Rocky IV training montage isn't one of finest pieces of cinema ever, I don't know what is!

Dragggooo!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvHAHSHI5kY

Is the Rocky VI training montage better than its predecessor?

Think Rocky and Apollo running on the beach, Rocky gaining rhythm dancing to hip hop, Rocky swimming and pulling his brother in law into the pool....

Okay, the Drago one is better.

Rocky? I was thinking more along the lines of

http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/07_02/thomasDM2407_468x377.jpg

Thomas the Tank Engine!!! I loved that show when I was a wee nipper!
Thank you HE, great post, choo choo!

that caught me off-guard, HE. Quite brilliant.

Danny_1982 wrote:Is the Rocky VI training montage better than its predecessor?

Think Rocky and Apollo running on the beach, Rocky gaining rhythm dancing to hip hop, Rocky swimming and pulling his brother in law into the pool....

Okay, the Drago one is better.

Both cinematic gold. The one from the original is pretty tasty too. Nothing can beat Gonna Fly Now with what seems the whole of Philadelphia following him up those steps. Although the sound track to Rocky IV does push it close for me!!

Right..where's my CD..it's going in the car.

Johnyjeep wrote: Although the sound track to Rocky IV does push it close for me!!

Vince DiCola is a genius. He also did the soundtrack to these classic sequences. I quite genuinely still get goosebumps!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7GeisRaias
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5tAU4lESSE

It's quite simple really... The Eye of the Tiger montage is inferior to the Drago montage for three reasons

1) the Italian stallion has no rhythm. Makes all the footage of him finding the tiger look like a poor dress rehearsal for a musical.

2) The beard he grew in the Soviet while training was quite prodigious.

3) Even after finding his Tiger, he still loses a foot race against an old retired boxer...

KR - you only needed point number 2 to win me over. I had forgotten about that magnificent beard he grew in Russia.

I don't think there's a bad Rocky training montage, but I now fully agree the Russian one is the best. A good beard beats anything.

I'm sure Djokovic is trying to give himself as much of an advantage as he can with public pronouncements like this a full 5 months from the tournament. It's instructive to look at their rivalry broken down into their 3 Set Matches and their 5 Set Matches. Djokovic has had a lot more success against Nadal in their 3 Set Matches. But that said, in their 27 matches that were Best of Three, the Djokovic edge is a razor-thin 14-13. It's the Best of Five's where Djokovic drops off dramatically. Nadal leads here by a decisive 9-3, it includes 11 of the Majors and their lone Davis Cup meeting in 2009. Moreover, their H2H in Majors finds Djokovic leading outright in only one of them: The Australian Open, winning the only match these two played there. Nadal leads at Roland Garros 5-0 and also leads at the US Open 2-1. They've split at Wimbledon, 1-1. So anything going beyond 3 sets and Nadal has a clear advantage between them.

Djokovic is the toughest matchup for Nadal. That said, the Best of Five illustrates the marginal advantages Nadal has and can keep doing relative to Djokovic. Nadal just makes fewer errors day in and day out against everyone, and his great gift is that he can keep that up over 5 sets if he has to. It's the benefit of not having the high octane serve that he must rely on, and the benefit of still having enough margin in almost every shot. Djokovic has more power than Nadal off the ground on the whole, so it's easy to get into a groove and just blast his way to Winners. In Best of Three, especially on hard courts, that serves him very well. It's just harder to keep doing that wen you have to win a 3rd Set against a guy who's not giving you any points with errors. Especially on clay where Nadal still defends too well to be hit off the court with any regularity.

Djokovic has had his chances at Roland Garros against Nadal for sure, but missed the one chance he really had to lower Nadal's colors at The French - 2011. He was living Rent Free in the Nadal head by that stage and went to that year's French not having lost a match all year. His problem was an inspired Federer. Had Djokovic managed to get past Federer in the SF that day, Nadal would have walked onto that court so terrified he might have struggled to get a set. Things are much different now. No longer does Djokovic own Nadal mentally like he once did, and Nadal has won 3 of their last 4 Best of Five matches. Moreover, Djokovic has a lot more threats on clay in Best of Five than Nadal does so even negotiating his way through the draw is harder for him. Still, it's good Djokovic is trying to psych himself up (or trying to psych Nadal out). History between them shows that when he must win that 3rd Set he'll need every advantage he can get.

I personally think that Novak will get through Nadal eventually at RG and win the title. It is a very high hurdle, personally I think he psyches himself up to much for RG. In tennis the best way to approach matches is to not build them up and take them as just another match, sure it is the one slam that has eluded you and that you have numerous very close losses. Novak is a player who plays off emotion and at RG he is holding on to tight, playing not lose because of the stakes. But if he actually plays it like another match against Nadal I think he will fare better. He has beaten Nadal in slam finals and in clay finals over three sets, some of those matches rather one sided. The difference with RG is that he cares to much and puts too much pressure on himself. The problem with building up RG is that it makes it more likely that you will fail as opposed to succeed. I know it is different as I am just a lowly club player, but I when I think about the stakes of a match or whether it is break point or match point or if I am playing in a tournament then I start tanking. If I look at it as another match and just another point I do extremely well in the big points in a match. Certainly the stakes are different but, the psychology is the same; you need to stay loose in the big points as opposed to getting psyched up, tennis is not boxing you need calm and composure. And that is precisely what eluded him in the last RG match against Nadal to the point that he ran into the blooming net.

antonico wrote:I'm sure Djokovic is trying to give himself as much of an advantage as he can with public pronouncements like this a full 5 months from the tournament. It's instructive to look at their rivalry broken down into their 3 Set Matches and their 5 Set Matches. Djokovic has had a lot more success against Nadal in their 3 Set Matches. But that said, in their 27 matches that were Best of Three, the Djokovic edge is a razor-thin 14-13. It's the Best of Five's where Djokovic drops off dramatically. Nadal leads here by a decisive 9-3, it includes 11 of the Majors and their lone Davis Cup meeting in 2009. Moreover, their H2H in Majors finds Djokovic leading outright in only one of them: The Australian Open, winning the only match these two played there. Nadal leads at Roland Garros 5-0 and also leads at the US Open 2-1. They've split at Wimbledon, 1-1. So anything going beyond 3 sets and Nadal has a clear advantage between them.

On clay, yes, but at 1-1 on grass and 2-2 on HC, you'd need to explain further how that translates into a clear advantage for Rafa on those surfaces.

JuliusHMarx wrote:On clay, yes, but at 1-1 on grass and 2-2 on HC, you'd need to explain further how that translates into a clear advantage for Rafa on those surfaces.

I need to explain nothing. I made no claim about a clear advantage for Nadal other than in Best of 5 Sets, which is an advantage clear for anyone to see. You are the parsing into surfaces; my separation for each individual Major Championship. It's not up to me to explain your attempt to rearrange numbers to prop up Djokovic. Fact is as I said. At each Major Championship, Djokovic only holds a H2H lead in one of them. That's what I said. It needs no further explanation.

Just me or is there a lot of unnecessary angst on here recently? Julius' post seems entirely reasonable. A 3-3 bo5 h2h off clay doesn't suggest a clear advantage to Nadal.

antonico wrote: So anything going beyond 3 sets and Nadal has a clear advantage between them.

They've had 7 matches that have been longer than 3 sets and Nadal lead 4-3.

Clear advantage.

Lovely to have you back.

Born Slippy wrote:Just me or is there a lot of unnecessary angst on here recently? Julius' post seems entirely reasonable. A 3-3 bo5 h2h off clay doesn't suggest a clear advantage to Nadal.

By 'recently', do you mean since 4:43 a.m. today?

antonico wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:On clay, yes, but at 1-1 on grass and 2-2 on HC, you'd need to explain further how that translates into a clear advantage for Rafa on those surfaces.

I need to explain nothing. I made no claim about a clear advantage for Nadal other than in Best of 5 Sets, which is an advantage clear for anyone to see. You are the parsing into surfaces; my separation for each individual Major Championship. It's not up to me to explain your attempt to rearrange numbers to prop up Djokovic. Fact is as I said. At each Major Championship, Djokovic only holds a H2H lead in one of them. That's what I said. It needs no further explanation.

Fair enough, it needs no further explanation. Your argument is simply wrong, that's all.

Born Slippy. You have to exclude a surface to put Djokovic even at level terms with Nadal. Do it if you want but by doing so it proves that Djokovic can't really be considered Nadal's equal and that winning the holy grail might prove difficult to say the least. Djokovic has played 6 five set matches on clay against Nadal (5RG and 1DC) and has yet to win one.

It's possible to mess about with the figures in other ways too. Why not exclude 2011 as this clearly was an oddity that doesn't fit in with the regular pattern of their meetings? Or why not look at all 4 slams in isolation? Nadal is clearly the best at the FO and Wimbledon and the best at the US Open. It's only at the AO that Djokovic has the better record therefore Nadal leads 3-1.

It's not "angst" that prompt me to point this out it's just a need to state the obvious...

hawkeye wrote:Born Slippy. You have to exclude a surface to put Djokovic even at level terms with Nadal. Do it if you want but by doing so it proves that Djokovic can't really be considered Nadal's equal and that winning the holy grail might prove difficult to say the least. Djokovic has played 6 five set matches on clay against Nadal (5RG and 1DC) and has yet to win one.

It's possible to mess about with the figures in other ways too. Why not exclude 2011 as this clearly was an oddity that doesn't fit in with the regular pattern of their meetings? Or why not look at all 4 slams in isolation? Nadal is clearly the best at the FO and Wimbledon and the best at the US Open. It's only at the AO that Djokovic has the better record therefore Nadal leads 3-1.

It's not "angst" that prompt me to point this out it's just a need to state the obvious...

Yes, it is obvious, which is why everyone agrees with it, including BS. No-one is saying Djoko is Nadal's equal or that winning the FO will be anything other than difficult. Djoko isn't even saying that!

HM Murdoch wrote:

antonico wrote: So anything going beyond 3 sets and Nadal has a clear advantage between them.

They've had 7 matches that have been longer than 3 sets and Nadal lead 4-3.

Clear advantage.

Lovely to have you back.

Ha ha! So you discard the five set matches they've played where Nadal won in three...

Honestly all the attempts to put Djokovic level with Nadal require some sort of manipulation of the figures.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

hawkeye wrote:Born Slippy. You have to exclude a surface to put Djokovic even at level terms with Nadal. Do it if you want but by doing so it proves that Djokovic can't really be considered Nadal's equal and that winning the holy grail might prove difficult to say the least. Djokovic has played 6 five set matches on clay against Nadal (5RG and 1DC) and has yet to win one.

It's possible to mess about with the figures in other ways too. Why not exclude 2011 as this clearly was an oddity that doesn't fit in with the regular pattern of their meetings? Or why not look at all 4 slams in isolation? Nadal is clearly the best at the FO and Wimbledon and the best at the US Open. It's only at the AO that Djokovic has the better record therefore Nadal leads 3-1.

It's not "angst" that prompt me to point this out it's just a need to state the obvious...

Yes, it is obvious, which is why everyone agrees with it, including BS. No-one is saying Djoko is Nadal's equal or that winning the FO will be anything other than difficult. Djoko isn't even saying that!

Oh! OK then I thought they were   ....... But isn't Djokovic saying he WILL do it?

^No, I'm countering Antonico's point that that "anything going beyond 3 sets and Nadal has a clear advantage between them".

I thought matches that went beyond 3 sets would therefore be an appropriate metric in my response.

hawkeye wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

hawkeye wrote:Born Slippy. You have to exclude a surface to put Djokovic even at level terms with Nadal. Do it if you want but by doing so it proves that Djokovic can't really be considered Nadal's equal and that winning the holy grail might prove difficult to say the least. Djokovic has played 6 five set matches on clay against Nadal (5RG and 1DC) and has yet to win one.

It's possible to mess about with the figures in other ways too. Why not exclude 2011 as this clearly was an oddity that doesn't fit in with the regular pattern of their meetings? Or why not look at all 4 slams in isolation? Nadal is clearly the best at the FO and Wimbledon and the best at the US Open. It's only at the AO that Djokovic has the better record therefore Nadal leads 3-1.

It's not "angst" that prompt me to point this out it's just a need to state the obvious...

Yes, it is obvious, which is why everyone agrees with it, including BS. No-one is saying Djoko is Nadal's equal or that winning the FO will be anything other than difficult. Djoko isn't even saying that!

Oh! OK then I thought they were   ....... But isn't Djokovic saying he WILL do it?

No, I think you're saying that Djoko is saying that. Or maybe the linked article is saying that. Djoko isn't saying that.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Fair enough, it needs no further explanation. Your argument is simply wrong, that's all.

  The funny thing is statistically I'm not wrong. In each of the Majors, Djokovic leads Nadal H2H in only one. This isn't wrong. What also isn't wrong is this: your skin is so thin in trying to prop up Djokjovic statistically in relation to Nadal that you have to resort to the responses you've written to me to do so.

Djokovic currently owns 6 Major Championships. Nadal owns 13 Majors, more than twice as many (unless you want to re-arrange these statistics to make a claim this is also "wrong"  ). So since you're such a Djokovic admirer, let is know when - and how - you think Djokovic will end up with more Major Championships than Nadal when both are done playing  

JHM, remind me, I'm allowed to say that comments are stupid but I'm not allowed to say that individuals are stupid, right? Even if I think there is strong evidence for that being the case?

HM Murdoch wrote:JHM, remind me, I'm allowed to say that comments are stupid but I'm not allowed to say that individuals are stupid, right? Even if I think there is strong evidence for that being the case?

That's correct. You are, however, allowed to say that my skin is very thin regarding Djokovic. Indeed, I am well known for getting upset at any criticism of Djokovic of whom I am clearly a great admirer

Well, JHM, if you will propound these theories about Djokovic winning more slams than Nadal, you leave yourself open to criticism.

JHM is merely an Orwellian face for a greater consortium of Djokovic fans who may or may not be trying to mislead the tennis world using abstracts theories like, "stats". Your powers of manipulation will not deter us

Kingraf, are you sure English is only your 5th language?! 

kingraf wrote:JHM is merely an Orwellian face for a greater consortium of Djokovic fans who may or may not be trying to mislead the tennis world using abstracts theories like, "stats". Your powers of manipulation will not deter us

I can't help having an Orwellian face - it's genetics. I blame the parents.

indeed Howling Mad, but a collection of 80s shows, and reading of The Communists Manifesto, as well as the teachings if Sun Tzu went a long way in teaching me the finer arts of the English language, as well as making me wary of imperialists who will stop at nothing to achieve their means, much like Groucho..