Weathering the condtions

Yesterday, it was noticeable how bothered Murray was with the change of conditions to "indoors", whilst Novak reveled in them. As we all know the neurotic Scot, hates any kind of change - we can sympathise, as it interferes with his shot making that relies on touch and as a result we get that wonderful variety off him, but actually he's just a fussy little urchin who needs to man up   

But it got me thinking that actually the two last finals for me were dictated to by the weather. I'm convinced (and said so at the time) that last year cooler conditions would have swung the match to Novak and in 2012 we all know what happened when the roof came on (granted Roger was starting to take control, but it would have more likely have swung either way like their Aus 13' meeting)

Arguably this year, for various reasons, nobody would bet the lives on either of the four - but lots would on no-one else winning the event

This makes the weather even more relevant perhaps?

Anyway so I'm now going to predict the event based on the elements, i.e. if they play each other my order of favourite under these conditions:-

Rain (so the roof is on) - Novak, Rafa, Federer, Murray (foolishly Murray's admitted he doesn't like Wimby with the roof on!!)
Hot (i.e. similar to last year) - Andy, Nadal, Roger, Djoko
Cool with little breeze - Djoko, Murray, Nadal, Federer
Cool and windy - Rafa, Andy, Novak, Roger

If only it was this simple, I could go and see the forecast for Friday and Sunday and make a fortune. Then again, given our unpredictable weather, perhaps not   

Curiously the weather on Sunday could be anything at this stage!!
I'm sure you'll disagree and I'm genuinely interested in counter-arguments. Perhaps Rafa better in the heat? But wouldn't the faster conditions go against him?

As you say it is all in the mind to a great extent. I think Marray has had some close ones and a loss or two when a roof has been involved so I guess in his mind it is a bad thing for his game.
What I think he does not realise is, roof or no roof, if he is playing good tennis as he is at the moment, he will win.

As for the roof and the 2012 final, as you say it was Federer raising his level at the end of the second set and I can still picture that drop shot on set point. I believe it was a case of nerves from Murray which is perfectly understandable given the situation. In New York he nearly squandered a 2-0 lead and let Djokovic level at 2-2.

The weather for the weekend according to the BBC, is rain,. Mind you, they have not been exactly accurate with the forecast.
I think the hotter is get, the more it will favour Nadal. Djokovic has not been looking too great in the heat and seems to be affected by it again as happened in Paris.
For Federer, the only advantage a roof will bring is less exhaustion as I do not believe he can play 4 long sets in 25+ degree conditions.
Nadal is better in the heat, rain, wind, roof and probably on the surface of the moon too! I think its down to form at the end of the day.

However, stopping play mid match to close a roof may disrupt rhythm. I predicted at the start of Wimbledon it will be a Nadal/Murray final with Nadal taking the title. Looks like we are heading that way!

Good thoughts.

I thought Andy was more affected by the interruption than the conditions themself. It stopped his momentum and Anderson played much better after the interval.

I'd say conditions seem to affect Novak and Rafa the most. Hot sunshine boosts Rafa and diminishes Novak but it's the other way round in cool conditions.

Federer and Murray seem to me to be less affected.

(The oddity is that Novak is very successful at the hottest slam but evening heat is different to mid-afternoon heat).

I agree the roof could be significant, depending on the finalists.

Rafa benefits least as he usually plays with pretty big margins anyway. But the lack of wind would improve the shots of the other three.

I also think the roof will benefit the serves of Novak and Federer. Both depend on placement for their serves and the lack of breeze will help that.

Andrew Jarrett was on Radio 5 earlier.

"From a scheduling point of view I'd love to play on the middle Sunday, but it's not that simple and the main reason is about the grass. It needs time to recover, it takes a battering in the first week and it needs a good soaking and it needs its own rest and recuperation to perform in the second week."