Aviva Premiership Round Five

by **Ozzy3213** Tue 30 Sep - 7:46

First topic message reminder :

Four rounds gone, and there has been no let up in the entertainment served up in the Aviva Premiership this season. Round four began at the Kassam Stadium on Friday night, where London Welsh were in the game for an hour before capitulating and giving up another big score to a Gloucester side who barely got out of second gear. Saturday afternoon saw three games, with Saints vs. Bath being the TV pick. The champions showed why they are the champions in this one, dominating the early part of the game against a Bath side buoyed by the result the week before, and by the time Bath got into the game, it was a little too late and a losing bonus point was all they could muster. Slightly earlier in the day, Saracens marked their first game of the season at Allianz Park with a try bonus point win over Sale, and London Irish backed up a good performance last week against Saracens by beating a beleagured Tigers team at Welford Road for just the second time in the last 91 years. On Sunday, Exeter Chiefs maintained their good start to the season, living off of numerous errors from and out of form Quins side to pick up a comfortable win at home, and Wasps bagged a try bonus point against a Falcons side who showed plenty of endeavour, but lacked in the execution department.

Prediction wise, it was a bumper week for me, with 6 from 6, which meant my acca with the man at Corals came in, and I picked up a couple of yellow caps in the SuperBru leagues. So here's the table after round 4:-

POS	TEAM	P	W	D	L	F	A	DIFF	TF	TA	TBP	LBP	PTS
1.	Saracens	4	4	0	0	149	79	+70	14	10	2	0	18
2.	Northampton Saints	4	3	0	1	135	60	+75	17	6	3	1	16
3.	Bath Rugby	4	3	0	1	151	77	+74	17	10	2	1	15
4.	Exeter Chiefs	4	3	0	1	133	59	+74	13	6	1	1	14
5.	Wasps	4	2	0	2	106	94	+12	12	9	1	2	11
6.	London Irish	4	2	0	2	89	93	-4	7	9	1	2	11
7.	Gloucester	4	2	0	2	108	115	-7	12	14	1	1	10
8.	Leicester Tigers	4	2	0	2	79	104	-25	7	10	1	1	10
9.	Harlequins	4	2	0	2	59	113	-54	5	9	0	0	8
10.	Sale Sharks	4	1	0	3	112	111	+1	15	10	2	1	7
11.	Newcastle Falcons	4	0	0	4	63	126	-63	8	14	0	1	1
12.	London Welsh	4	0	0	4	44	197	-153	6	26	1	0	1

So, on to this weeks fixtures, and here they are;-

Friday 3rd October 2014 19:45 Bath Rugby vs. Saracens

What should be the game of the round is first up this week, and it's likely to prove to be a fiesty affair. Going by last seasons meetings between these two sides there is clearly no love lost and I'll be amazed if there aren't a few cards in this one. If there are, those 10 minute periods where one team is not at full strength could be crucial, and it will be the most clinical of the two sides who will win. Saracens will want to protect their unbeaten record, but Bath, having lost to Saints will have a point to prove and are at home. This is a massive test for them, and will tell us a lot about whether they are genuine title contenders or not. I think they'll pass the test, and pick up a narrow win, with Saracens bagging a losing bonus point.

Saturday 4th October 2014 15:00 Harlequins vs. London Welsh

Quins are desperate for a cohesive performance, to give them something to build on, and Welsh are just desperate for anything they can get from games right now. It's no good Justin Burnell whinging about referees and level playing fields, he needs to sort out that defence, which has been quite frankly appalling and barely Championship standard so far this season. His team will need to show real heart and desire against a Quins side who will undoubtedly be targeting 5 points here. I just can't see it to be honest, and thing Quins will cruise to victory in this one and leave Welsh rooted firmly to the bottom of the table.

Saturday 4th October 2014 15:00 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints

As ever with my own team I don't know who to call this one. Heart as always says 'we got this' but the head says Saints are the strongest side in the league and this one could well be a struggle. Having lost away at Wasps, Saints will not want a second slip up in the opening block of games, and will be very focused going in to this one. Irish will be confident having taken 6 points from the last two games against Sarries and Tigers. Tactics will have to be spot on for Irish, as the game plans deployed against their two previous employments will not get the job done against Saints. Almost as an emotional insurance I am going to tip Saints here, with us getting a losing bonus point, but on SuperBru and in my acca, I have to back my team.

Saturday 4th October 2014 15:15 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers

I heard someone say yesterday that Kingsholm is the last place Tigers will want to be going at the moment, but I actually think the opposite. Yes it's an intimidating atmosphere and tough place to go, but actually in their current plight, other than running in tries for fun against Welsh, a tough one like this is just what they need. They will have to front up, and for all that Gloucester have improved on last season, they have been a little hit and miss so far, and are work in progress rather than the finished article. James Hook will need to improve on Fridays performance, and if he does they have a sparkling back line that can hurt Leicester, but the Tigers back line is none to shabby either, and there pack has enough in it to compete. It's a tough call, but I can't see Tigers losing 3 on the bounce, and I think they'll nick this one on the road.

Sunday 5th October 2014 14:00 Sale Sharks vs. London Wasps

Sale haven't played terribly this season, but results haven't gone their way. Wasps have looked decent both in victory and defeat, and will have genuine ambitions to finish in the top 6, if not the top 4. The breakdown will be the key here. Wasps back row have been excellent, and given quick ball to Simpson and Goode and with the pace they have outside of them they will hurt teams. Sale have to slow this down and make this a dog fight, as they don't have the firepower to win a shootout. Steve Diamond is no fool though, and he will know exactly how he wants his team to play. Wasps are probably favourites, but I'm going with Sale to dig this one out at home, Wasps to get the losing bonus point.

Sunday 5th October 2014 15:00 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs

Exeter are my surprise package this season. I genuinely thought their recruitment hadn't be great and they would be in that 7th to 10th group in the final shake up. So far, new boy Thomas Waldrom, and academy graduates Sam Hill and Henry Slade are putting in performances that mean their sights will be set a whole lot higher than that. Falcons are struggling. In some ways, it's difficult to see why, as there is definitely some talent there. They are very difficult to predict on this early in the week, as nobody has any clue what side Dean Richards will send out, and this has to be part of the issue. I think it's 20 games without a win now, and they know they need to break that sequence soon if they are to put some distance between them and Welsh. On paper, this is a Chiefs win, but I just have a feeling that Falcons might up it for this one and cause an upset. There, I've said it, Falcons win, losing bonus point for the Chiefs!

Ozzy's redicted table after round 5:

Northampton Saints 20, Bath Rugby 19, Saracens 19, Exeter Chiefs 15, Leicester Tigers 14, Harlequins 13, Wasps 12, London Irish 12, Sale Sharks 11, Gloucester 11, Newcastle Falcons 5, London Welsh 1.

by **Ozzy3213** Sun 5 Oct - 17:18

If Falcons beat Welsh next week then Welsh are relegated.

by Sgt_Pooly Sun 5 Oct - 17:33

We'll beat Welsh without question.

Our issue is first up tackling and execution in the opp 22. I just can't see Welsh threatening us enough and we'll score tries. We're playing ok, this win will really kick start our season.

by SirBurger Sun 5 Oct - 18:41

Congrats Newcastle - that is a big win.

by **Ozzy3213** Sun 5 Oct - 18:59

So now there's nobody left unbeaten, and just one team without a win.

Saints, Bath and Saracens look nailed on for the play offs, but with the exception of Welsh it looks as if everyone else will take points off of each other throughthe season. Could be the best Premiership rugby season yet.

by sad_gimp Sun 5 Oct - 19:24

It is shaping up nicely this season. 4th spot is going to be a hell of a fight after Bath/Saints/Sarries. Wasps, Exeter, Gloucester, Leicester Quins, Irish all in with a shout depending on who can sort out their erratic form and put a run together.

by lostinwales Sun 5 Oct - 22:58

Ozzy3213 wrote:Best results for us today would be sale to win by 8 without a bonus point, and Falcons to win. Come on the northerners!!!

Go on then - what are the lottery numbers going to be?

by ChequeredJersey Sun 5 Oct - 23:21

Nobody is nailed on for the playoffs when we are less than a quarter of the way through the season...

Bath and Saints and Sarries certainly favourites but it's amazing how fast things can change

by doctor_grey Mon 6 Oct - 1:46

Ozzy3213 wrote:If Falcons beat Welsh next week then Welsh are relegated.

Methinks Welsh are already done. Their for-away point differential averages -40 per game. That is truly incredible. They might threaten or surpass Rotherham's season of disaster in the Premiership. Also every team will now have to go out and get 4 tries against Welsh, just to stay even with all other teams in the Premiership. Waste of a season.

by bedfordwelsh Mon 6 Oct - 6:35

doctor_grey wrote:
Ozzy3213 wrote:If Falcons beat Welsh next week then Welsh are relegated.
Methinks Welsh are already done. Their for-away point differential averages -40 per game. That is truly incredible. They might threaten or surpass Rotherham's season of disaster in the Premiership. Also every team will now have to go out and get 4 tries against Welsh, just to stay even with all other teams in the Premiership. Waste of a season.

grey,

You say waste of a season but in the system that the Aviva has they deserved to be there by winning the Championship. Some say Bristol would have one better and they possibly would have but they failed to win promotion so its a mute point.

Every league whether there is promotion/relegation or not has its whipping boys if it wasn't Welsh then it would have been one of the others.

by lostinwales Mon 6 Oct - 7:11

bedfordwelsh wrote:
doctor_grey wrote:
Ozzy3213 wrote:If Falcons beat Welsh next week then Welsh are relegated.
Methinks Welsh are already done. Their for-away point differential averages -40 per game. That is truly incredible. They might threaten or surpass Rotherham's season of disaster in the Premiership. Also every team will now have to go out and get 4 tries against Welsh, just to stay even with all other teams in the Premiership. Waste of a season.

grey,

You say waste of a season but in the system that the Aviva has they deserved to be there by winning the Championship. Some say Bristol would have one better and they possibly would have but they failed to win promotion so its a mute point.

Every league whether there is promotion/relegation or not has its whipping boys if it wasn't Welsh then it would have been one of the others.

You are right in that those are the rules, and in this case the rules have shown to have not worked, in that Welsh are plainly unsuited to the AP, and so far have added nothing. There is whipping boys, and there is quite possibly the worst ever performance in the league to date

It is possible to be promoted and survive. It does seem that a change to the promotion criteria (back to league position) is on the cards

by Geordie Mon 6 Oct - 8:22

bedfordwelsh wrote:
doctor_grey wrote:
Ozzy3213 wrote:If Falcons beat Welsh next week then Welsh are relegated.
Methinks Welsh are already done. Their for-away point differential averages -40 per game. That is truly incredible. They might threaten or surpass Rotherham's season of disaster in the Premiership. Also every team will now have to go out and get 4 tries against Welsh, just to stay even with all other teams in the Premiership. Waste of a season.

grey,

You say waste of a season but in the system that the Aviva has they deserved to be there by winning the Championship. Some say Bristol would have one better and they possibly would have but they failed to win promotion so its a mute point.

Every league whether there is promotion/relegation or not has its whipping boys if it wasn't Welsh then it would have been one of the others.

The championship play off is a joke though. We dominated our promotion season...but started to struggle at the end and crawled over the line. Bristol should have been the team promoted. The play off malarky needs scrapping.

And i say that knowing that if Bristol had come up our chances of relegation would be much higher.

by HammerofThunor Mon 6 Oct - 8:37

Remember the London Welsh side in the premiership is significantly different to the side that won promotion. They got a load of 'better' new players. Maybe over the season they'll gel enough to actually get some wins and stay up. But I can't help but think that using to solid team that got you promotion and add a few extra players is the way to go.

by doctor_grey Mon 6 Oct - 8:58

bedfordwelsh wrote:
doctor_grey wrote:
Ozzy3213 wrote:If Falcons beat Welsh next week then Welsh are relegated.
Methinks Welsh are already done. Their for-away point differential averages -40 per game. That is truly incredible. They might threaten or surpass Rotherham's season of disaster in the Premiership. Also every team will now have to go out and get 4 tries against Welsh, just to stay even with all other teams in the Premiership. Waste of a season.

grey,

You say waste of a season but in the system that the Aviva has they deserved to be there by winning the Championship. Some say Bristol would have one better and they possibly would have but they failed to win promotion so its a mute point.

Every league whether there is promotion/relegation or not has its whipping boys if it wasn't Welsh then it would have been one of the others.

Bedfordwelsh, I agree London Welsh earned their Premiership place fair and proper. Last season, on paper Bristol were probably better, but that is why we play the games. Bristol had their chance, but when the pressure was turned up, they didn't finish the job - London Welsh did and earned promotion. No complaints from me.

I call it a waste of a season because I see a team not able (at this point) to compete at this level. On target to have the worst for-against points differential ever. Doesn't help them as a club, doesn't help the Premiership, or Rugby.

by **LondonTiger** Mon 6 Oct - 9:02

London Welsh beat Bristol on 3 of their 4 matches. Both teams won 19 games and lost 4 in the regular season.

you have to feel that the team they had last season would, as HoT suggests, have been much more competitive than the current one containing a pile of new signings, pretty much has-beens to a man.

by TightHEAD Mon 6 Oct - 11:06

Ozzy3213 wrote:If Falcons beat Welsh next week then Welsh are relegated.

Can't argue with that.

by **LondonTiger** Mon 6 Oct - 11:12

TightHEAD wrote:
Ozzy3213 wrote:If Falcons beat Welsh next week then Welsh are relegated.

Can't argue with that.

May be a tad early to make that statement. However if LW also lose to the other relegation possibles in Round 8 (23rd Nov) then yes we can probably find the singing obese woman.

by **LondonTiger** Mon 6 Oct - 11:15

bloody hell, just seen that Falcons made 170 tackles.

by doctor_grey Mon 6 Oct - 12:42

LondonTiger wrote:London Welsh beat Bristol on 3 of their 4 matches. Both teams won 19 games and lost 4 in the regular season.

you have to feel that the team they had last season would, as HoT suggests, have been much more competitive than the current one containing a pile of new signings, pretty much has-beens to a man.

Good point. They could not have have fared worse than they are.

by doctor_grey Mon 6 Oct - 12:53

LondonTiger wrote:bloody hell, just seen that Falcons made 170 tackles.

That's an unbelievable number. I recorded the match and will watch later today. Not sure how that effort can be sustained. But that was a huge win against a good team. This season has already had a few upsets. Hopefully the Newcastle win shows this trend can continue for the season which will make it a very interesting year.....

On the plus side for Newcastle, if they nail a few more wins, they can more comfortably plan their longer term future knowing this season is likely safe.

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