Who will take the last European spot in the Pro 12?

I've actually become a bit more fascinated by the race between Connacht, Edinburgh and Scarlets for the last European spot than I am by the battle in the top 5.  Thats assuming that Leinster don't drop out of the race for the top 4 and aren't embroiled in the race for top 6 already.

Anyway, gonna keep this short and sweet.  Who is gonna take it?

6 Connacht 18 9 1 8 354 327 5 43
7 Edinburgh 18 9 1 8 331 330 5 43
8 Scarlets 18 7 3 8 362 333 6 40

6 votes so far and completely even... should be an exciting one.

I'd be surprised if Scarlets didn't get their act together, though today was a really bad result for them and I don't know how they'll react. Connacht seem to be falling away as predicted. So I guess Edinburgh must be the favourites! You wouldn't have said that at the beginning of the season.

As an Edinburgh supporter I still can't see past the Scarlets getting it.
They've been more consistent over the season and probably deserve it on balance.
Our best has possibly been a bit better but our worst has been atrocious.

Edinburgh have:
- Munster (h)
- Zebre (h)
- Dragons (a)
- Leinster (h)

Connacht's run in is:
- Ulster (h)
- Glasgow (h)
- Zebre (a)
- Ospreys (h)

Scarlets are probably favourites to finish 6th. Their run in is:

Zebre (a)
Dragons (a)
Cardiff (h)
Treviso (a)

Yeah when you look at the Scarlets fixtures even though 3 are away I bet they would fancy winning all of those. Even the Dragons away game is part of Judgement Day so its at the MS.

When you look at that Scarlets squad, you have to figure that they have too much quality to not take the 6th place slot. They have the best run-in and no serious injuries as far as I am aware (pending Scott Williams' assessment from the weekend).

I would love it to be Edinburgh (they are 3 points ahead of the Scarlets and that's not to be sniffed at) but I don't think it's going to be. Scarlets never have trouble racking up TBPs against the less strong opposition and I fully expect that to continue.

The Scarlets have easier opposition but they've been really poor away from home so it's not a done deal. Can't see Connacht making it with those fixtures. I'm gonna predict Edinburgh. They were good yesterday. Looks like they've really gotten their act together.

I think Scarlets are favourites, particularly with Edinburgh fighting on two fronts, but think Edinburgh are building momentum and could do it. It will be tight.

With 3 away games and not a single away win all season I don't really see Scarlet's as favourites, our record in Italy is hardly impressive over the last few seasons either, if they play anything like yesterday again they will be lucky to achieve the 7th place playoff even.

Given that the Scarlets are likely to win at least 3 of those games they surely have to be favourites.

It is gonna be bloody close though!

Can Scarlets or Connacht fans shed some light on any frustrating losses you've had this year? Edinburgh have had several owing to our inconsistency throughout the season - if we'd won those we really should be well clear at 6th place just now.

Scarlets H - draw 20-20.  Poor performance, were lucky to get a draw.

Connacht H - lost 14-13. Another poor performance, not helped by the ref having something against us at scrum time (penalising the crap out of us even though we were generally dominant).

Zebre A - lost 18-10.  I know it was away but you shouldn't be losing to the worst team in the league.


3 games that we probably should have won if we had been more consistent - not helped our case that two of them were against out main rivals!

2ndtimeround wrote:With 3 away games and not a single away win all season I don't really see Scarlet's as favourites, our record in Italy is hardly impressive over the last few seasons either, if they play anything like yesterday again they will be lucky to achieve the 7th place playoff even.

Is that right?? How are they even in the running with a record like that?

My thoughts are that Connacht have too difficult a run in to make it and will finish 8th. Scarlets I think (before reading about the away record) will win all four with a few bonus points which will be beyond Edinburgh who will make the playoff place. I think Edinburgh may beat one of the Irish provinces they have left but would be amazed if they manage both.

Whoever ends up in the playoff will probably have to beat Sale and (best guess) Bordeaux so it will be tough for Edinburgh. Will they be during the world cup?

The 7th placed Pro 12 team will play the 7th placed AP team (or Challenge cup winner if from England) then the winner of that will play the 7th placed Top 14 team.

Not sure when they will be played - the Pro 12 season finishes on 16th May and the Champions cup will be done by then. I suspect it will be the two weeks after that - the French Top 14 league fixtures finish on the 23rd so they would be able to play the final qualifier on the 30th.

Long season if a Pro 12 team makes it that far! Not ideal with the world cup coming up either.

If Edinburgh make it to the Challenge Cup final and finish 7th in the leage (and beat the AP team in the first qualifier) they will have 9 consecutive games between now and the end of the season.  I'm not sure we have the squad to cope with that! Would be a massive boost to finish 6th and not have to go through all that.

Champions Cup play-offs

Saturday, 23 May
Match 1: Aviva Premiership (seventh-ranked club or Challenge Cup winner from the Aviva Premiership if not already qualified) v Guinness PRO12 (highest-ranked club not already qualified)
Home advantage to be decided by toss of coin

Saturday, 30 May
Match 2: winner of Match 1 v Top 14 (seventh-ranked club from the Top 14 if not already qualified)
Winner of Match 1 will have home advantage

Connacht to fall behind. If Scarlets don't get 6th with the fixtures they have they should be shot. They have 3 away but one is in the neutral Millennium stadium and the other 2 are in Italy.

Connacht have Ulster, Glasgow and Ospreys and Embra have Leinster and Munster .

The Scarlets have the bottom 4 teams in the league to play. No excuses.

Embra for the Playoffs.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:Champions Cup play-offs

Saturday, 23 May
Match 1: Aviva Premiership (seventh-ranked club or Challenge Cup winner from the Aviva Premiership if not already qualified) v Guinness PRO12 (highest-ranked club not already qualified)
Home advantage to be decided by toss of coin

Saturday, 30 May
Match 2: winner of Match 1 v Top 14 (seventh-ranked club from the Top 14 if not already qualified)
Winner of Match 1 will have home advantage

Connacht to fall behind. If Scarlets don't get 6th with the fixtures they have they should be shot. They have 3 away but one is in the neutral Millennium stadium and the other 2 are in Italy.

Connacht have Ulster, Glasgow and Ospreys and Embra have Leinster and Munster .

The Scarlets have the bottom 4 teams in the league to play. No excuses.

Embra for the Playoffs.

Oh trust me, we will have plenty of excuses.

ALL of the top 5 teams playing your 2 rivals. I just can't see you not winning 1 more game than both of them. You are only 3 points behind.

As we say over here, if you don't manage it you should be shot with balls of your own shyte.

RDW_Scotland wrote:Given that the Scarlets are likely to win at least 3 of those games they surely have to be favourites.

It is gonna be bloody close though!

Can Scarlets or Connacht fans shed some light on any frustrating losses you've had this year? Edinburgh have had several owing to our inconsistency throughout the season - if we'd won those we really should be well clear at 6th place just now.

Scarlets H - draw 20-20.  Poor performance, were lucky to get a draw.

Connacht H - lost 14-13. Another poor performance, not helped by the ref having something against us at scrum time (penalising the crap out of us even though we were generally dominant).

Zebre A - lost 18-10.  I know it was away but you shouldn't be losing to the worst team in the league.


3 games that we probably should have won if we had been more consistent - not helped our case that two of them were against out main rivals!

Drawing with Ulster and Munster at home, and drawing with Edinburgh away are three results that felt like a real kick in the balls. We had both Munster and Ulster stuffed, the win was in the bag and we threw them away. But that's 6pts (and two less for Embra) that will be key come the end of the season.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:ALL of the top 5 teams playing your 2 rivals. I just can't see you not winning 1 more game than both of them. You are only 3 points behind.

As we say over here, if you don't manage it you should be shot with balls of your own shyte.

Looking at our injury updates, we are looking unlikely to have only one recognised lock for a few weeks (Snyman out all season, Kelly broken arm, Earle injured ankle, Rawlins concussion, Shingler shoulder, even McCusker injured). So we are not in too good a position with regards the set piece.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:ALL of the top 5 teams playing your 2 rivals. I just can't see you not winning 1 more game than both of them. You are only 3 points behind.

As we say over here, if you don't manage it you should be shot with balls of your own shyte.

Looking at our injury updates, we are looking unlikely to have only one recognised lock for a few weeks (Snyman out all season, Kelly broken arm, Earle injured ankle, Rawlins concussion, Shingler shoulder, even McCusker injured).  So we are not in too good a position with regards the set piece.

That's a fairly decent excuse in all fairness.

Embra and Connacht are both involved in the closing stages of the Challenge cup too though. Another advantage to you. And both play a well rested Ulster and Munster the week after the QFs while a well rested Scarlets take on the might of Zebre!

The Challenge Cup is certainly going to be helpful to the Scarlets cause, as like you say both Connacht and Edinburgh will be playing, but also so will the Dragons (who we play soon) so it could tired them too.

I think Edinburgh were unlucky with injuries and were very inconsistent.

They now appear to be peaking at the right time. I think/hope they can pull it off.