where does Nadal go from here?

I am not saying he won't have a comeback or that he is done or dusted. But he can't play like Nadal of 20 or 25 anymore. I think that much is clear. His whole formula was based on being able to be the fittest guy, the fastest guy, and the player who could run around 90 percent of his backhands to hit forehands. He just can't anymore. People are wondering why his forehand seems so weak. Well the answer to me is simple. He is asking too much of the FH and of his legs. His style of play requires him to run more than his opponent and to get into position to hit FH from anywhere in the court. This tactic along with his big swings require him to stand back further and to do more running than any guy on the tour. At this stage it just won't work. The reason his FH isn't as penetrating and as good is that he is late on the ball, that he can't get his feet right to hit the ball the way he should. I mean Nadal hasn't forgotten how to hit his forehand. He is either lunging or he can't get his body out of the way fast enough so he gets jammed on the FH wing. It becomes very easy to hit a ball if you are in the right position and you are top pro. If you drop a ball short to him midcourt he still knows how to whack it and angle it off the court. But the top guys aren't going to do that very often to him. They are going into all the space Rafa leaves on the FH side and he is late getting there so he either errors or gives back a short reply that they can then finish. This problem is compounded by the fact that Nadal is not as confident or as good as he used to be at going up the line with that FH. This could be due to the fact that if his opponent gets there the cross court is wide open and he can be hurt if he doesn't do enough with that ball.


So what can Rafa do to get back to the top. I know this sounds crazy but he has to abandon the core of his game. And I personally don't believe that he can do it. Because unlike Federer or Agassi when he got older he doesn't need just minor tweaks and improvements he needs a whole new outlook on the game of tennis. I actually think if he is dedicated enough to a new formula he can pull it off. But I don't think it is likely because it may require a year or more of him actually going backwards to go forwards.

1. He needs to trust the backhand and run around less. His backhand is actually pretty good. I mean it isn't as good as Murray or Djoko's but he can do damage with it and he has improved his down the line backhand. This will relieve the pressure on both his legs, his lungs, and his FH. Instead of running around every backhand just run around the ones that every other pro would run around the mid court ones

2. He has to do more damage with the return and his return position. The whole dropping back to hit a heavy return that gets you back to neutral thing is not going to work against the very best. He doesn't have to hit outright winners but he can take a page here from Djokovic and hit a flatter, earlier ball into uncomfortable positions for his opponent. That is something he did to Novak in the hardcourt swing of 2013 so he can do it, but I haven't seen it since.

3. Maybe hitting with the most RPMs, is hitting with too much RPMS. He needs to flatten out the FH, the FH is the core of his game and right now his current strategy is just not impacting the best guys. He has that flat FH, I have seen it over and over again since 09 and a little before.

4. Point 3 leads to point 4. He needs to move up to near the baseline and play. To hit a flatter FH he needs to be closer to the baseline and shorten his swing. He needs to hit with more mph and less RPM. When he is late on his FH as he often is now the ball either sales long, goes into the net, or drops short and if his opponent is good enough he takes advantage.

5. More variety on his serve. Every one and their grandmother knows where Nadal is going with 90 percent of his serves. Fed and Djoko don't have the biggest serves in terms of mph. I mean Djokovic hits his first serve marginally faster than Nadal. But what he does is that he mixes up his serves and doesn't stick to one tell tale pattern. Fed is particularly brilliant at this as the returner has no idea where the serve is going till he hits it and by then it is too late.

6. He has to go up the line more off both wings. His CC BH is good his down the line BH is weak he needs to improve the frequency and effectiveness of this shot. And he needs to use the down the line FH more and recently he hasn't done much damage with it against the best players.

I honestly don't think he can pull off these changes. Not that he doesn't have the ability but I just think it is very hard for a top pro to completely overhaul like this at 29 years of age. But I don't think he can continue to play the current style in his thirties like Fed has been able to. It asks so much of his legs, his heart, his lungs, and his FH. He should wake up tomorrow and say this is the way I am going to play and if I go 0-39 till I get it right that is what I have to do. Because the current strategy of resurrecting the old (young) Nadal into this Nadal's body I don't think will work. And if it does work it isn't going to work for long.

Well, its multi pronged. The first thing I'd say, is he needs to work on his serve. It's topped out at 140mph before, so he can bazooka. The reasons he has decided against doing so is well documented, but the added protection of a big serve at this stage overrides the need to have a little bit more time on his second shot. In any case a decent big serve probably gives you more time on a second shot anyway, as the returns coming back are generally weaker.

His returns have dipped, certainly but any return game that saves three set points, and brings you back from 4-0 down to 4-4 isn't all bad. The problem is he creates no momentum on his own serve.

Can he come back? I don't know, but 30 isn't too old anymore. He spent last season popping pain meds for his back. So that may also play a role.

According to Rafa he'll continue to work hard. If Fed and Murray can, so does Rafa. In fact it's a relief for Rafa, if we want to see things positively, that he's no longer burdened with having to defend his clay titles time after time and year after year. Now hes no longer expected to win each time he steps on clay.

This year marked the first time Rafa has failed to defend any of his titles won in the previous year! I think Rafa has finally come back to earth (literally, on clay) on his favorite surface, no longer that dominating figure on this surface. He simply has to fight harder to get his wins.

Rest assured, Rafa is down but not out, he'll work hard to have better results for the rest of the season.

kingraf wrote:Well, its multi pronged. The first thing I'd say, is he needs to work on his serve. It's topped out at 140mph before, so he can bazooka. The reasons he has decided against doing so is well documented, but the added protection of a big serve at this stage overrides the need to have a little bit more time on his second shot. In any case a decent big serve probably gives you more time on a second shot anyway, as the returns coming back are generally weaker.

His returns have dipped, certainly but any return game that saves three set points, and brings you back from 4-0 down to 4-4 isn't all bad. The problem is he creates no momentum on his own serve.

Can he come back? I don't know, but 30 isn't too old anymore. He spent last season popping pain meds for his back. So that may also play a role.

I have never seen him hit that high on the radar gun in any match Raf. He can hit it pretty big though so I don't know why he doesn't. Maybe it is not a repeatable shot for him, if it isn't he better make it so. His return was weak against Djokovic. You could be my grandmother and in a five set match Novak will gift you a break because he goes loosey goosy with is FH and his shot selection. He got two break in three sets on a clay court if that is good or decent returning then obviously I am watching a different match then you.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:According to Rafa he'll continue to work hard.  If Fed and Murray can, so does Rafa.  In fact it's a relief for Rafa, if we want to see things positively, that he's no longer burdened with having to defend his clay titles time after time and year after year.  Now hes no longer expected to win each time he steps on clay.  

This year marked the first time Rafa has failed to defend any of his titles won in the previous year!   I think Rafa has finally come back to earth (literally, on clay) on his favorite surface, no longer that dominating figure on this surface.   He simply has to fight harder to get his wins.  

Rest assured, Rafa is down but not out, he'll work hard to have better results for the rest of the season.

I appreciate that you are loyal and good fan of the player BLB, but I don't think it is as simple as just working hard. Working smart is the key. And that means having the right goals and the right strategy. Nadal is not going to go back to Nadal of 2010-2013 physically by just working harder in my mind. It is like 60 year old woman all dressed up, with a couple of plastic surgeries, and a tight cocktail dress telling you age is just number; no honey age is what is going on around your neck line and with your breasts; it is more than a number it is a fact.

Two breaks in three sets is plenty decent if you have a good serve. Nadal didn't. There's no way you can argue being able to break consistently is more important than not conceding two plus points every single return game.

Yeah, the serve topped at 135mph, not 140. Although the idea remains the same.

He got one break totally gifted to him, the second break in the first set. You could Juan Pablo whatshisname and Djokovic will gift you a break over three sets while he goes on walk about. Sometimes I think he has serving related ADD. Either way 2 breaks in 3 sets on clay is not going to get you very many trophies. At best, at best it is marginal to mediocre. His return is pretty good overall but to get to the level he wants to get to his return has to be good against the top guys and it isn't. It isn't ambitious enough. His whole return strategy is based on getting to neutral. The assumption being once I get to neutral I will out hit and out grind the guy, well what if you can't?

Kingraf, I do feel Rafa thinks too much before he serves, hence the exceeding of time limit and the TV warnings. I do feel if he allows himself to serve freely without much thinking, he can serve better.

I remember when he was injured at Rotterdam 2009 final and AO 2014 final, he simply went into autopilot mode, served without thinking and he was doing fine and even won the set in both matches. Also, if we go back to his earlier career, he wasn't thinking too much either and was quick in his serving, he wasn't doing too badly back then, even beat Fed at Miami, went toe to toe going the distance with Gonzo there, with Hewitt at Canada and Chela at Cincy.

Now that he has a very much better FH than his earlier days of 2003-2004, why he has to think too much when serving? As good as Toni is as a coach, I do feel he made the mistake of wanting Rafa to spend time thinking before he serves, and Rafa followed his instructions and started adding in all his tics - pulling up his socks, tuck his hair behind his ears, now touching his nose, pulling at his shirt etc and etc. Had they concentrated on building up Rafa's serve back then, Rafa may not even need so much thinking before his serves and now ended up being penalized so often with TV warnings on BPs.

socal1976 wrote:

Belovedluckyboy wrote:According to Rafa he'll continue to work hard.  If Fed and Murray can, so does Rafa.  In fact it's a relief for Rafa, if we want to see things positively, that he's no longer burdened with having to defend his clay titles time after time and year after year.  Now hes no longer expected to win each time he steps on clay.  

This year marked the first time Rafa has failed to defend any of his titles won in the previous year!   I think Rafa has finally come back to earth (literally, on clay) on his favorite surface, no longer that dominating figure on this surface.   He simply has to fight harder to get his wins.  

Rest assured, Rafa is down but not out, he'll work hard to have better results for the rest of the season.

I appreciate that you are loyal and good fan of the player BLB, but I don't think it is as simple as just working hard. Working smart is the key. And that means having the right goals and the right strategy. Nadal is not going to go back to Nadal of 2010-2013 physically by just working harder in my mind. It is like 60 year old woman all dressed up, with a couple of plastic surgeries, and a tight cocktail dress telling you age is just number; no honey age is what is going on around your neck line and with your breasts; it is more than a number it is a fact.

Yeah, I'm with Socal on this. Federer has simply shortened the points and stopped been as flamboyant and of course has the new raquet, so he's arguably more powerful than he's ever been

Likewise Murray, who fully fit now combines his lovely varied match with genuine power. So his rallies are now shorter, because he's 'powered up' to a degree. His 4th set yesterday was what Rafa was doing in 2010 all the time

I don't really see what Rafa can do, his game was always about intensity and outworking his opponent even more than his three main rivals. I suppose he could try and get back that 2010 form, which if I remember was more power and shorter points to protect his knees

But I don't see where he goes, but would love to be proved wrong

banbrotam wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

Belovedluckyboy wrote:According to Rafa he'll continue to work hard.  If Fed and Murray can, so does Rafa.  In fact it's a relief for Rafa, if we want to see things positively, that he's no longer burdened with having to defend his clay titles time after time and year after year.  Now hes no longer expected to win each time he steps on clay.  

This year marked the first time Rafa has failed to defend any of his titles won in the previous year!   I think Rafa has finally come back to earth (literally, on clay) on his favorite surface, no longer that dominating figure on this surface.   He simply has to fight harder to get his wins.  

Rest assured, Rafa is down but not out, he'll work hard to have better results for the rest of the season.

I appreciate that you are loyal and good fan of the player BLB, but I don't think it is as simple as just working hard. Working smart is the key. And that means having the right goals and the right strategy. Nadal is not going to go back to Nadal of 2010-2013 physically by just working harder in my mind. It is like 60 year old woman all dressed up, with a couple of plastic surgeries, and a tight cocktail dress telling you age is just number; no honey age is what is going on around your neck line and with your breasts; it is more than a number it is a fact.

Yeah, I'm with Socal on this. Federer has simply shortened the points and stopped been as flamboyant and of course has the new raquet, so he's arguably more powerful than he's ever been

Likewise Murray, who fully fit now combines his lovely varied match with genuine power. So his rallies are now shorter, because he's 'powered up' to a degree. His 4th set yesterday was what Rafa was doing in 2010 all the time

I don't really see what Rafa can do, his game was always about intensity and outworking his opponent even more than his three main rivals. I suppose he could try and get back that 2010 form, which if I remember was more power and shorter points to protect his knees

But I don't see where he goes, but would love to be proved wrong

Good post Banbro, but that is the thing Rafa can't get back to 5 years ago. With his age and all the injuries he has to be more efficient. There are very few ways to win more efficiently in a tennis match. And they all involve getting up in the court and hitting flatter or going up the line more. But that represents a fundamental change in style for Nadal. For Djokovic, Murray, and Federer it is not as big an ask. Especially for Federer as that his the way he always plays. Novak has it easy as well because since day one he has done things well and now has an improved serve and transition game to go along with it. For Nadal we are literally asking the leopard to change his spots. And I don't think he is incapable of it, I have seen him do all of these things well just I haven't seen him stick to it and do it over the long haul simultaneously. That is what he has to do, not only to stay with Novak but to stay with the other top guys as well.

I agree SoCal, Rafa has to work smart in addition to working hard. It's pretty obvious that Rafa is no longer as quick and as powerful compared to his younger self. He can no longer play from so far behind the baseline and expecting himself to reach the balls on time and hitting as hard and as powerful as during his younger days.

I do hope Toni and Rafa himself realize this, that his clay court game needs revamping. His ROS position is fine for him to neurtralise big serves but I feel he should move in immediately after returning serves to cut off the angles. He's being doing all the running in his matches and ceding court to his opponents. His clay court game is pretty amazing even up until last year at the FO, we can't question that. He's playing a typical clay court game on clay, but once he loses his speed and power, he can no longer execute that game almost flawlessly and so he becomes more beatable.

I was looking at those who are getting more successes on clay lately, and I do find that players these days are playing the HC game on clay and they're doing well. Rafa OTOH plays his amazing clay court game on clay and has to adjust his game to have successes on the other surfaces. Perhaps Rafa should just play like the other HC players, ie playing the same game on any surface, maybe play the way he played during the NAHC season of 2013, even on clay.

Banbro, Rafa has the varieties, you talked as if he doesn't have that. He has amazing hands when at the net, knows how to approach the net at the right time and knows what to do when he's there. It's just that when he can outrun and outlast anyone, he just sticks with the game that works well for him.

In that MC match vs Novak, he did take the initiative to move up the court and played with more aggression, it's just that he's not ready yet to deal with an in form Novak. In fact if Rafa could play like he did in 2013 he should be fine, no need and also impossible to get back to his 2010 form in terms of his game,speed and power.

I think it is going to be tough for Rafa.

Federer extended his relevance by going back to an old skill set. The S&V and the shortening of points was the way he originally played.

Likewise, Murray seems to have had a renaissance by calling upon an older style. He's shed a bit of muscle and is employing his variety and feel a bit more.

I think Rafa's classic Plan A - the high bouncing topspin forehand, the running around the backhand, the endless defensive running - is probably no longer available to him. It takes such a lot of energy and strength, that it was always going to fade with the passing of the years. Injuries and absence have not helped.

Does he have an older style to call on? Perhaps partially.

My recollection is that he ran around his backhand less in the 04-07 period. He also hit that shot much flatter. This may be something it's worth him returning to.

As others have said, a flatter forehand may be the way forward too.

Some have also suggested getting a different or additional coach. This may be useful to him. A fresh perspective in training would probably be beneficial.

In general terms though, a 29 year old tennis player, with a history of injury, starting to decline is not shocking. We've had similar discussions about Federer and in the not too distant future we'll be having the same ones about Djokovic and Murray.

It comes to all of them.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Kingraf, I do feel Rafa thinks too much before he serves, hence the exceeding of time limit and the TV warnings.  I do feel if he allows himself to serve freely without much thinking, he can serve better.  

I remember when he was injured at Rotterdam 2009 final and AO 2014 final, he simply went into autopilot mode, served without thinking and he was doing fine and even won the set in both matches. Also, if we go back to his earlier career, he wasn't thinking too much either and was quick in his serving, he wasn't doing too badly back then, even beat Fed at Miami, went toe to toe going the distance with Gonzo there, with Hewitt at Canada and Chela at Cincy.

Now that he has a very much better FH than his earlier days of 2003-2004, why he has to think too much when serving?  As good as Toni is as a coach, I do feel he made the mistake of wanting Rafa to spend time thinking before he serves, and Rafa followed his instructions and started adding in all his tics - pulling up his socks, tuck his hair behind his ears, now touching his nose, pulling at his shirt etc and etc.  Had they concentrated on building up Rafa's serve back then, Rafa may not even need so much thinking before his serves and now ended up being penalized so often with TV warnings on BPs.

The serves a problem, but surely the issue is that his forehand now goes walkabout when facing anyone who is very good. The only saving grace is that it could be a mental thing a choking situation / yips etc, i.e. worked on and solved

I think he needs to write off the rest of the year, whilst still competing of course, getting his mojo back for the start of next year

Rafa did hit a flatter FH during 2004 and he was way more aggressive back then. Notice too he was brave enough to move to the net back then to finish points there(see his match vs Fed at Miami 2004). The young Rafa of 2003 even tried moving up to the net on grass at Wimbledon 2003! He had an amazing BH during 2004-2008 when Fed called it Rafa's second FH. Too bad, his BH now is more a liability. He also has a flatter I/O FH, one which he likes hitting running around his BH corner.

If we think Rafa has nothing more to fall back on, then we got to look at how he played during 2003-2004. He isn't/wasn't a defensive player to start with, so If need be, he can and has to find back that old aggressive self.

You can dress this up all you like and people can be kind if they want to, but the blunt answer is down.

The whole basis of his game no longer exists, and young power hitters are starting to appear in greater numbers, a type of player that was always his greatest threat.

socal is bang on - I have never before watched a Nadal match like that one.  Usually you feel that Nadal's chances increase as they settle into a rally, yesterday was the opposite.  Nadal was hanging on in there and Djokovic was able to run him around and choose his moment to pick Nadal off.  Occasionally Nadal would pull out a devastating winner, usually on the forehand, but not with the consistency of old.  Djokovic was able to accept the risk of losing the odd point in that way because he knew he'd win enough his way in the end.

I don't understand why Nadal doesn't look at those things which he did right to such devastating effect away from the clay in 2010 and 2013, to mix it up with some flat power and shortening points rather than stick to a plan which evidently is no longer serving him against the very best like it used to.  I'd be interested to know what people think about 2011 when he would have won almost everything had he not been consistently pipped by Djokovic - was he good that year (I think he was), and did what happened that year blunt his confidence in mixing it up (of course, if that's the theory, then what happened in 2013 needs explaining)?

We have learned never to write Nadal off, but Federer's #17 is looking safer now than it has for some time.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Banbro, Rafa has the varieties, you talked as if he doesn't have that.  He has amazing hands when at the net, knows how to approach the net at the right time and knows what to do when he's there

Of course he has variety - you can't win umpteen slams without it. Problem is, when you use variety instead of power the point is often going to be longer (i.e. slice) but Rafa doesn't seem to be able to cope with longer points any more. You simply don't see him playing (against anyone any good) a load of defensive shots, with slices to keep him in the point, followed by an impossible angle winner, i.e. like we get regularly from Novak, Fed and Murray or even Nishikori

He obviously thinks he needs to finish points early, hence why he relies on power that he can no longer generate. That makes me think, his body and why should we be surprised after 11 years of slam winning, is just not up to it

Rafa was playing well in 2011 except during the second half of the season, with the USO being the exception. He won only 1980 points during that period! Even lower than his 2009- 2400 points - same period.

It's not like Rafa didn't know what he had done in 2010 or 2013 or how he's capable of playing, it's just that he hasn't found his form yet! He couldn't even win any tournament on European soil, you think he's back to his old form now? It's still a WiP for him before he can get back his form, his FH is still shaky, he's still nervous and takes a long time to think and serve, he's certainly not there yet. IOW, he needs more time.

I still stand by what I said earlier in the clay court season. Rafa is striving for missing qualities such as self-belief, confidence and consistency. That was evident yesterday. The fighting spirit was still there and I don't think that will ever diminish but his ground strokes lacked consistent depth. The large portions of the match I saw his ground strokes were landing mostly midway up court or he'd be hitting long occasionally. Only now and again did he manage to pepper the lines and like I assumed once the first set was gone the self-belief built up in the four matches prior to this just seeped away. He desperately needs a win against Novak, Andy or Roger to start building the belief that he still has it. Wins against Berdych, Nishikori etc are good but prove nothing to him or me (frankly). Andy to a degree is at this stage as well needing a big win over Novak but elsewhere his game is at a higher level just now than Rafa's.

The tell tale signs as to where Rafa is at for me is when Andy took him apart on clay in Madrid. Yes Andy is in the clay court form of his life perhaps but that defeat was more about the shell of Rafa for me.

People are are also underestimating the impact of being pushed to play points most promptly; it's another nail in the coffin, just at a time when he's lost power which is putting him more on the defensive in rallies, he has to find a way to increase recovery between points.

Banbro, don't forget he's still trying to get back into form. Don't jump into conclusion too soon; if his FH fails him time and again, how's he going to stay in a rally?

You talk as if Rafa is inferior to Fed, Novak, Murray or Noshikori! You think Rafa is incapable of producing those impossible angle shots? You're comparing a Rafa who's just back from a long injury/illness break with the top players?

CaledonianCraig wrote:I still stand by what I said earlier in the clay court season. Rafa is striving for missing qualities such as self-belief, confidence and consistency. That was evident yesterday. The fighting spirit was still there and I don't think that will ever diminish but his ground strokes lacked consistent depth. The large portions of the match I saw his ground strokes were landing mostly midway up court or he'd be hitting long occasionally. Only now and again did he manage to pepper the lines and like I assumed once the first set was gone the self-belief built up in the four matches prior to this just seeped away. He desperately needs a win against Novak, Andy or Roger to start building the belief that he still has it. Wins against Berdych, Nishikori etc are good but prove nothing to him or me (frankly). Andy to a degree is at this stage as well needing a big win over Novak but elsewhere his hame is at a higher level just now than Rafa's.

The tell tale signs as to where Rafa is at for me is when Andy took him apart on clay in Madrid. Yes Andy is in the clay court form of his life perhaps but that defeat was more about the shell of Rafa for me.

Belief is not the issue. Belief doesn't stop you being able to hit deep consistently or sap your power.

I have very low belief in my ability to win Wimbledon this year, but the belief is not the problem.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Banbro, don't forget he's still trying to get back into form. Don't jump into conclusion too soon; if his FH fails him time and again, how's he going to stay in a rally?

You talk as if Rafa is inferior to Fed, Novak, Murray or Noshikori!  You think Rafa is incapable of producing those impossible angle shots?  You're comparing a Rafa who's just back from a long injury/illness break with the top players?

just back?

wrist on "wrong" hand followed by a routine minor operation late last year. Nothing since.

I agree BB to a certain extent. Rafa no longer has the power or even fitness to recover on long rallies the way he did when he's younger, so to keep within the time limit, he has to shorten points. Also, continue to work on his serve may help, so that he can trust his serves better instead of thinking hard how or where to place his serves.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Banbro, don't forget he's still trying to get back into form. Don't jump into conclusion too soon; if his FH fails him time and again, how's he going to stay in a rally?

You talk as if Rafa is inferior to Fed, Novak, Murray or Noshikori!  You think Rafa is incapable of producing those impossible angle shots?  You're comparing a Rafa who's just back from a long injury/illness break with the top players?

Well if we are being frank at the moment he is inferior to Fed, Novak, Murray and Nishikori. Results and ranking suggests it and form certainly does as well. I do believe some were saying wait until RG and that'll bring the old Rafa to life will we waited and.....nothing.

For me Rafa needs a complete overhaul. He needs to punt Toni and look to a coaching expert and try to salvage something as change is needed. True as some have suggested this decline may be terminal but to stick with Toni is accepting he doesn't need to change things and that is seriously wrong thinking.

He has his back issue so had done the stem cell treatment on his back too. The back issue was bothering him the whole of last year. He has missed his training block end of last year hence he's ill prepared for this season. Just give him time and see how things unfold for the rest of the season. Didn't Murray take a whole year to get back to his best? So why Rafa couldn't have that luxury?

CC, read, you want to compare a Rafa who missed a chunk of last season and was busy getting back into form with the top players now?? You think that's fair?

Belovedluckyboy wrote:CC, read, you want to compare a Rafa who missed a chunk of last season and was busy getting back into form with the top players now??  You think that's fair?

In hindsight, perhaps not. However, do you see any signs of the old Rafa at this current point of time? Sure we may be judging him far too early and yes it took Murray ages to come back to his best after back surgery but he was also amidst losing Lendl as coach which can't have helped either. But even with those troubles Andy still did better at Melbourne and RG last year than Rafa has done this year and remember we are judging a 14-time slam winner with a 2-time slam winner.

Toni isn't just his coach you know, Nadal has run his career from his family (or arguably his family has run his career) and that's the way he lives his life. What's he going to do, dump his family and go off with someone else? It's not in his make-up and I think it would do him more harm than good.

All he can do is work hard as he says, hope that his physical conditioning permits him to regain the power he had before and see where it goes. As Murdoch says, Federer's "3rd coming" was based on going back to original Plan A, he just hired people to help him get as close to that as possible at this stage. Rafa is playing original Plan A, who is he going to?

Barrystar, Fed's #17 may not be safe if Novak wins the calendar slam this year and wins slams for the next two to three years.

Since turning 29, Federer has won just one slam.

To think that Nadal, with a history of injuries and a more physically demanding playing style, will be winning much more in the future would seem somewhat optimistic.

bogbrush wrote:Toni isn't just his coach you know, Nadal has run his career from his family (or arguably his family has run his career) and that's the way he lives his life. What's he going to do, dump his family and go off with someone else? It's not in his make-up and I think it would do him more harm than good.

All he can do is work hard as he says, hope that his physical conditioning permits him to regain the power he had before and see where it goes. As Murdoch says, Federer's "3rd coming" was based on going back to original Plan A, he just hired people to help him get as close to that as possible at this stage. Rafa is playing original Plan A, who is he going to?

Granted yes about Toni - cutting family coaching ties must be like being joined at the hip and that could really be the undoing in the end.

Whatever people think of Rafa's game and what made it so successful it is apparent his career is at a crossroads right now. As you say it is odds on that Toni will remain his coach but if I were a Rafa fan I'd be looking for a fresh approach.

CC, Rafa is human so whether he's a 14 time slam winner or a two slam winner, he still needs time to recover. Murray was marginally better than Rafa, he reached the QF of AO and SF of FO last year, only one more round better than Rafa at the FO, not forgetting Rafa has Novak as his QF opponent!

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Barrystar, Fed's #17 may not be safe if Novak wins the calendar slam this year and wins slams for the next two to three years.

No chance of Novak reaching 17.

Even if wins every slam he enters, it will take until RG17, when he'll be 30, to equal Federer.

barrystar wrote:socal is bang on - I have never before watched a Nadal match like that one.  Usually you feel that Nadal's chances increase as they settle into a rally, yesterday was the opposite.  Nadal was hanging on in there and Djokovic was able to run him around and choose his moment to pick Nadal off.  Occasionally Nadal would pull out a devastating winner, usually on the forehand, but not with the consistency of old.  Djokovic was able to accept the risk of losing the odd point in that way because he knew he'd win enough his way in the end.

I don't understand why Nadal doesn't look at those things which he did right to such devastating effect away from the clay in 2010 and 2013, to mix it up with some flat power and shortening points rather than stick to a plan which evidently is no longer serving him against the very best like it used to.  I'd be interested to know what people think about 2011 when he would have won almost everything had he not been consistently pipped by Djokovic - was he good that year (I think he was), and did what happened that year blunt his confidence in mixing it up (of course, if that's the theory, then what happened in 2013 needs explaining)?

We have learned never to write Nadal off, but Federer's #17 is looking safer now than it has for some time.

I think in 2013 especially during the hardcourt swing he was being more aggressive with his serve, forehand, and court positioning. And I think this caught Novak by surprise. I believe it goes a long way to explain how Nadal had his best year ever. And it is one of the major reasons I think he can play differently. But at the same time I have my doubts, serious doubts that he actually will.

Belovedluckyboy, But my point being he is often painted as a super human being on the tennis court compared to mere mortals like Murray hence expectations are elevated are they not? As I see the comparisons Murray had early exits in interim tournies early last year and managed to raise his game at the slams. Rafa has this year won a 250 in South America and reached the final in Monte Carlo (was it?) and Madrid so like I say it is those key big match losses that you look at. He is neither consistent, confident or has the self-belief at present and I believe he desperately needs a big win over the top players in the sport but that is no easy task if you don't have confidence and consistency as is the case with Rafa just now. And to make matters worse for him his favourite surface is now another almost a year away from coming around again.

bogbrush wrote:People are are also underestimating the impact of being pushed to play points most promptly; it's another nail in the coffin, just at a time when he's lost power which is putting him more on the defensive in rallies, he has to find a way to increase recovery between points.

I would believe that if he was being called for ten percent or even five percent of the time he goes over the limit. The rule has been in place I believe since 2013 he had his best year ever then.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I still stand by what I said earlier in the clay court season. Rafa is striving for missing qualities such as self-belief, confidence and consistency. That was evident yesterday. The fighting spirit was still there and I don't think that will ever diminish but his ground strokes lacked consistent depth. The large portions of the match I saw his ground strokes were landing mostly midway up court or he'd be hitting long occasionally. Only now and again did he manage to pepper the lines and like I assumed once the first set was gone the self-belief built up in the four matches prior to this just seeped away. He desperately needs a win against Novak, Andy or Roger to start building the belief that he still has it. Wins against Berdych, Nishikori etc are good but prove nothing to him or me (frankly). Andy to a degree is at this stage as well needing a big win over Novak but elsewhere his game is at a higher level just now than Rafa's.

The tell tale signs as to where Rafa is at for me is when Andy took him apart on clay in Madrid. Yes Andy is in the clay court form of his life perhaps but that defeat was more about the shell of Rafa for me.

Yes I agree with much of that but there is a reason his balls are dropping short. I mean if you are consistently dropping short or going wide or hitting into the net there are reasons. For example, often if you are hitting into the net it is because you are pulling your head up and looking up and not keeping your eye on the ball. Or if you are consistently hitting wide it is because you are over rotating on your shots. The reason Nadal is dropping or netting so many shots is because he can't continually run around the BH and give up as much court position to get to the ball in time. If you are top pro and you are on top of the ball in time it becomes routine to hit.

goodnight all it is really, really late here, thank god I don't have to answer to boss. Interested in your responses for tomorrow.

socal1976 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:I still stand by what I said earlier in the clay court season. Rafa is striving for missing qualities such as self-belief, confidence and consistency. That was evident yesterday. The fighting spirit was still there and I don't think that will ever diminish but his ground strokes lacked consistent depth. The large portions of the match I saw his ground strokes were landing mostly midway up court or he'd be hitting long occasionally. Only now and again did he manage to pepper the lines and like I assumed once the first set was gone the self-belief built up in the four matches prior to this just seeped away. He desperately needs a win against Novak, Andy or Roger to start building the belief that he still has it. Wins against Berdych, Nishikori etc are good but prove nothing to him or me (frankly). Andy to a degree is at this stage as well needing a big win over Novak but elsewhere his game is at a higher level just now than Rafa's.

The tell tale signs as to where Rafa is at for me is when Andy took him apart on clay in Madrid. Yes Andy is in the clay court form of his life perhaps but that defeat was more about the shell of Rafa for me.

Yes I agree with much of that but there is a reason his balls are dropping short. I mean if you are consistently dropping short or going wide or hitting into the net there are reasons. For example, often if you are hitting into the net it is because you are pulling your head up and looking up and not keeping your eye on the ball. Or if you are consistently hitting wide it is because you are over rotating on your shots. The reason Nadal is dropping or netting so many shots is because he can't continually run around the BH and give up as much court position to get to the ball in time. If you are top pro and you are on top of the ball in time it becomes routine to hit.

Yes and is that not down to lack of consistency? He hit the lines with a few shots but mostly his length was way off - lack of consistency and that is taking on board about his head position etc and court position.

CC, Raf made the SF of MC (lost to Novak), made the final at Madrid ( lost to Murray) and QF of Rome (lost toStan). Do note that all three of them are now in the SF of the FO, that means they are playing well.

Of course by Rafa's standard, losing all his clay events is certainly a blow to his confidence. However, do you seriously think that Rafa will go downhill from here and never get up? He has nothing now to defend and he now can just try and play as much as possible without any expectation on his shoulders, plays himself into form and then see how far he can go.

socal1976 wrote:

bogbrush wrote:People are are also underestimating the impact of being pushed to play points most promptly; it's another nail in the coffin, just at a time when he's lost power which is putting him more on the defensive in rallies, he has to find a way to increase recovery between points.

I would believe that if he was being called for ten percent or even five percent of the time he goes over the limit. The rule has been in place I believe since 2013 he had his best year ever then.

They've only started showing any real interest recently.

Another factor affecting him will be (cynical me!) that as he's no longer the top player Umpires will ping him more. The top guys get an easy ride.

The eye-opener for me was the thrashing he took from Murray on a surface he owns. And those matches are the matches I talk of that he needs to transform into wins and which used to be routine wins for him. Whether he will never return to the level he once had it is still too early to say just like it is fool-hardy to think - give it time and all will be rosy again. His strongest surface remains clay and he now has almost a year to wait until the clay comes around again. So he needs to work on restoring self-belief, confidence and consistency firstly on grass (unhappy hunting ground in recent years) and then on the hard courts - it will be mighty tough. Never say never I suppose but I'd say Rafa fans now were probably feeling like I was at this time last year (after Wimbledon) with regards to Murray so there is always hope.

No Craig, I believe socal is making the point that he can't get there any more. Just as Federer's slight loss of mobility has a big impact on his game, so it is with Rafa.

Nadal is consistent; consistently finding it hard to get into position and consistently hitting his forehand into the wrong places.

A for that being the eye-opener. you need to keep your eyes open more . He got completely owned in Monte Carlo by Djokovic. The nature of that defeat told me what was coming and I've been only slightly surprised that it was even worse. Losing twice to Fognini on clay before meeting Murray was pretty much the deal; Murray and Wawrinka just drove it home.

CC, let's see how he fares on grass and HCs. Strangely, I do feel he'll do better on HC than on clay, because he tends to play more offensively on HC than on clay, and playing closer to the baseline on HCs, shorter points too. He's too defensive on clay these days for my liking.

bogbrush wrote:No Craig, I believe socal is making the point that he can't get there any more. Just as Federer's slight loss of mobility has a big impact on his game, so it is with Rafa.

Nadal is consistent; consistently finding it hard to get into position and consistently hitting his forehand into the wrong places.

Ah got you now. Well we shall see how things go from here.

The TV point is correlation confused with causation. I'd beleive the recovery thing if he was losing matches by getting tired, but he isn't at all.  What does he do?  Keep playing. Confidence can come back, might get lucky. Seen too many people write off big players before heck we were writing off murray last year.

Lets face it - he is at the moment a top ten player.  Perhaps playing at a level of a Berdych or Wawrinka.

I think at the moment only Djokovic and Murray are away from the field, so he doesn't need to improve much to be number three.  Like others have said, he will need to be more attacking and try to shorten the points.  I think the top end of tennis has become dominated by more attacking tennis.  Certainly Djokovic and Murray are playing more attacking tennis than four or five years ago.  

Rafa doesn't strike me as the type that will accept being number 5 or 6 in the world, with no chance of winning more slams.  I suspect if this is decline, once he realises and accepts it he will retire.  Federer always seems happy just to be competing and always seems to accept his loses easier (these days).

I'd never write Rafa off though. Ever.