Vienna, Stockholm, Basel, Valencia, Moscow (and other 'low-level' events)

First topic message reminder :

Vienna - Ferrer v Johnson - Johnson playing pretty well and can win this one.
Stockholm - Berdych v Sock - just started.
Basel - Qualifying rounds in progress.
Valencia - Qualifying rounds in progress.
Moscow - Cilic v Bautista-Agut - BA can take a set off Cilic.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/scores/current/

The rivalry just isnt pretty anyway you cut it for him. He should notch one back tomorrow, but all those matches 05-09 just dont go away. The best result he gets out of this another basel title, he needs a slam win over rafa really

temporary21 wrote:The rivalry just isnt pretty anyway you cut it for him. He should notch one back tomorrow, but all those matches 05-09 just dont go away. The best result he gets out of this another basel title, he needs a slam win over rafa really

Did Federer not make two slam finals in 2015? I do not think he cares who he beats, it is just another trophy he really wants.

2005-09 is history, it will never go away.

OTOH, it would be good to see Nadal make another RG final, even if it is a swan song.

Jahu wrote:LF, you a bit hyper tonight, Halloween effect? Thx for invite

Instead of giving candy to the Witches, I put on the costume and consumed it myself. Now it is time to face the consequences.

temporary21 wrote:, he needs a slam win over rafa really

Why?

Because this doesn't mean much either way  really. Go read the should they play again thread of you wanna know why. Not gonna repeat it. It's like watching season 9 of friends

Stuff happens. Sometimes it's a bit like its prime but it doesn't feel special anymore. Tennis' big matches now all involve Djokovic. A win would be nice either way, but that's it, it's just another match

laverfan wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:Watching paint dry it is.

Unfortunately, the match tomorrow will lead to denigration of the loser, rather then the celebration of the winner.

Nadal has been impressive getting this far. He has come back from the brink, including hanging on to the second set with Gasquet. Nadal's movement has improved despite the faltering FH.

Federer BH and FH have been misfiring all tournament. Gasket's BH seemed better at handling Nadal, leaving the mental demons aside. Foot-speed is another factor. A first serve and slice will stand him in good stead.

Hopefully some Swiss bankers are sanding the court down to make it play a bit faster tomorrow.

Oh I am looking forward to comments such as...

"Federers back was playing up"

"Nadal is clean and lost as a result"

"If it was 90's grass Federer would've won"

"If it was clay Nadal would've won"

"Decimation of the rain forests is causing Federer to shank more balls against Nadal"

"The Greek gods cursed Nadal for winning all the time hence why he lost"

I am sure there is mileage in this.

summerblues wrote:Routine win for Fed?  But did not Cilic also beat Rafa earlier in the tournament, and look at where we are now?

Rafa is a really bad match-up for Roger.  Perhaps not as bad here as on other surfaces, but still, unless Fed ups it from how he played in the SF, Rafa will likely win.

Very Murdoch-like ;-). It would be a seismic shock if Roger doesn't win tomorrow. Even when Rafa is playing well Fed is favourite on an indoor court. Rafa struggled past Gasquet today and has shown nothing this week to suggest he has anything currently to trouble Fed on this surface.

We had that thread early in the year. It wasn't received well by some. Is it even a big ebough deal now for the excuses

temporary21 wrote:Stuff happens. Sometimes it's a bit like its prime but it doesn't feel special anymore. Tennis' big matches now all involve Djokovic. A win would be nice either way, but that's it, it's just another match

I agree - it's just that another slam win over Rafa would be no big deal either - it is very unlikely to be a final, the winner probably wouldn't go on to win the tournament, so even a slam match wouldn't be that much more than just another match.

However, if Fed were to lose tomorrow and thus be 'humiliated', that seems to contradict your opinion that it's just another match.

Born Slippy wrote:

summerblues wrote:Routine win for Fed?  But did not Cilic also beat Rafa earlier in the tournament, and look at where we are now?

Rafa is a really bad match-up for Roger.  Perhaps not as bad here as on other surfaces, but still, unless Fed ups it from how he played in the SF, Rafa will likely win.

Very Murdoch-like ;-). It would be a seismic shock if Roger doesn't win tomorrow. Even when Rafa is playing well Fed is favourite on an indoor court. Rafa struggled past Gasquet today and has shown nothing this week to suggest he has anything currently to trouble Fed on this surface.

Goffin and Kohlschrieber both took a set off Fed this week. If Rafa were to go a little better and win in 3, how would that be a 'seismic shock'?

Some artistic wordplay. No need to get hung up. It means there's no way he should lose in his hometown under these circumstances. Losing this would be as bad as seppi to me.

Rumours were his neck/back were a problem for the Kohli/Goffin matches. Providing his back is ok, Fed losing on a fast indoor court to an out of sorts Rafa in Basel just isn't happening.

Worth noting he goes back to number 2 with a win tomorrow.

The point being there's narginally more expectation on fed here, for the first time in a long time... Would be legitimately surprised if he makes a mess if it

Born Slippy wrote:Worth noting he goes back to number 2 with a win tomorrow.

Thanks, did not know that.

Born Slippy wrote:

summerblues wrote:Routine win for Fed?  But did not Cilic also beat Rafa earlier in the tournament, and look at where we are now?

Rafa is a really bad match-up for Roger.  Perhaps not as bad here as on other surfaces, but still, unless Fed ups it from how he played in the SF, Rafa will likely win.

Very Murdoch-like ;-). It would be a seismic shock if Roger doesn't win tomorrow. Even when Rafa is playing well Fed is favourite on an indoor court. Rafa struggled past Gasquet today and has shown nothing this week to suggest he has anything currently to trouble Fed on this surface.

Hehe, maybe.  I hope you are right.

But I am not convinced.  Rafa vs Fed is not just about the current form.  Rafa has a match-up advantage that Fed needs to overcome.  Their first three hard court matches were played in 2004-2006.  At that time, Fed was beating everyone on hard courts and Rafa was not.  Yet, Rafa came out 2-1 out of those three and it was awfully close to being 3-0.  If this were a standard hard court, I would say that for Fed to beat Rafa, he would need the difference between their respective forms to be bigger than it was in 2004-06, and I do not think it is.  So, on a standard HC, I would give this one quite clearly to Rafa.  Indoors HC is obviously better for Fed, so I do think he has a decent chance, but certainly nowhere near a forgone conclusion (at least not in Fed's favor).

Nah, in- door or not, the guy is 34 years old and right now not as sharp (understandably) as just earlier this year, so inconsistent with his serve, the key of his winning format,  never mind the looseness of the rest of his game overall this week.

However, Nadal has played very well (relatively) since Beijing, and Shanghai. In Basel now he may not be winning convincingly but still reaches the final. He is 5 years younger and has all the experiences he needs, regardless the surfaces, to grind out a win vs an old dog with a sore neck he owns historically. The strength of this psychological advantage alone (agree with SB and others re bad match up etc) is enough for Nadal to secure a win over the home favourite. He doesn't even need to do anything special.

So l say just the reverse, given their history and the age gap, for me it'll will be a "seismic shock" if Nadal doesn't win today.

Seemingly not so important final in Basel, but it must be very presitigous from Fed’s perspective. Fed plays on his home soil, on his favorite surface and at indoor. It is one of his few last chances to confirm his edge with Nadal at least at indoor matches.
What to expect in the final? I think that a mental side will have a big effect in it. If Fed can hold his focus, then he should win it. But any doubts in his head can cause that we will see another shanking BH fest and then it surely can go a different way.
So nothing seems to be sure in the final. But the pressure is on Fed, Nadal has nothing to lose. That will play a big role.

Born Slippy wrote:Very Murdoch-like

I'm going to pretend that this means rational, balanced and insightful!

For what it's worth, I think this is going to be a close match.

My impression is that, in terms of form, Rafa is on the way up from a low place and Federer is on his way down from a high place. I think they are about to meet somewhere in the middle.

I have a feeling that Rafa might take it but I wouldn't be at all surprised by a Federer win.

I don't even know who's playing in Vienna...it means nothing to me.

It was completed last week :P
Ferrer won.

How did Rafa struggle against Gasket when he won in two sets.????

HM Murdock wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:Very Murdoch-like

I'm going to pretend that this means rational, balanced and insightful!

For what it's worth, I think this is going to be a close match.

My impression is that, in terms of form, Rafa is on the way up from a low place and Federer is on his way down from a high place. I think they are about to meet somewhere in the middle.

I have a feeling that Rafa might take it but I wouldn't be at all surprised by a Federer win.

Very rational, well balanced and insightful

I bet Fed was hoping Rafa wouldn't make the final. This is going to be a tough match for him against a guy who has fought back from losing positions this week and may still have a mental edge over Rog.
On the other hand, Fed is unlikely to have a better chance to beat Rafa than this (although we could be saying this again if the pair meet at the O2 !)

Haddie-nuff wrote:How did Rafa struggle against Gasket when he won in two sets.????

Did you watch the match? Gasquet had a lead for most of the first set, served for the second and had set points.
He definitely struggled at times.

Rafa played some of his best tennis all week against an on form Gasquet, who true missed some chances, but struggle ?? if you had said that about his match against Rosol I would have agreed. It was a closely contested match against Gasquet, who would have proved himself against any player yesterday, but Rafa won in two sets not three.. struggled

12 of Rafa's previous 21 sets against Gasquet (all of which he won) were 6-2 or easier. He totally dominates him due to Gasquet's poor movement and OHB. 6-4 7-6 (relying on a Gasquet choke in the 2nd) therefore classes as struggling.

That doesn't mean he didn't play some decent stuff but there are still odd dips (from 4-1 to 4-6 in the tiebreak was woeful). Great for him to make the final but he needs a massive improvement to make it competitive today.

According to the Rafa cynics on this forum He is only in the final because ALL his opponents choked...the man everyone wrote off a couple of months ago... something Federer has never done.. please note

LuvSports! wrote:It was completed last week :P
Ferrer won.

Oh right.

The players are gone, only you and I...

Not a struggle for Rafa vs Gasquet, just more competitive. Gasquet has improved under Burgera. Gasquet looks fitter now, serves better, improves his FH and he's playing closer to the baseline in this match, not the usual playing from way behind the baseline.

Rafa mishit two FHs in the TB but he played well the rest of the TB, clutch serving at set point and then won in the end. Gasquet DF in one of his service game and allowed Rafa to break back but he's not the first or the last player to DF away a game.

This Rafa is not the all conquering Rafa of old, but he's still playing well enough and clutch enough to snatch victories away from his opponents.

Your absolutely right Blb no he isn't, and doubt he ever will be, but as bad as he is he is good enough and better than most to have earned his place in this final. Having the disastrous season he has ever had in his career and may still finish 6th in the race... what the hell does that tell you about the rest ..should he beat Fed today..then what will be said of him..? That Roger choked no doubt.

Good luck Roger.

Should be a fun match. I can see just about any outcome as possible. Given the surface, I suppose it is possible that Roger could have a straightforward win but I can just as easily see Rafa taking Roger apart easily.

If it is a close match, in the past I would give it to Rafa, but this year he has lost enough close matches that I am not too confident about that either.

Very divided opinions... I cannot believe that Roger would lose this match, not this court, not in his backyard. Just DONT shank every bh and it should be his...

by the by... Petchy just used the word asterisk in his pre match.... oh god help us

temporary21 wrote:by the by... Petchy just used the word asterisk in his pre match.... oh god help us

I am relatively lucky to have Goodall, Lester, Koenig, et al. I feel for any Petchey listeners.

Nadal starting well, Feds in error mode. He looks nervy.

Come on Fed, detoxify his body from all that dodgy plasma blood serum injections.

Whats the deal today on sets?

Fed, Nadal, Fed
Nadal, Fed, Fed
Fed, Fed

Not bad.

Fed breaks with some great play.

Nadal melting like a nasty Milka chocolate.

BREAKS! ALLEZ

Don't start this now Fed, get a hold and keep serving.

Holy waffles, what a shot.

That's it papi, just keep it up.

Omg omg, what a shot, even Nadal congratulating.

Break now Fed and start serving next set.

6:3 Fed, gentle man, gentle

So far so good.

Nadal having the medic tighten his knee caps.

Break Fed break.

In fairness if federer cannot beat nadal on current form and with home advantage, you would be worried for roger.

Feds over 25 winners to Rafa who has less than 10. Error count not nearly as stark between the two,

ALLLEZZZ!
Break now feds please!

Luv, spot on!!! hahaah