Who will be the next NEW number 1?

The likelihood is that Novak and/or Andy will hold number 1 for at least 6 months or so. However, at some stage someone new will take over. Who will it be?

I've gone for Stan the Man, on the grounds that you specify somebody NEW at number one. In fact, I can't see anyone other than Andy or Novak being top for quite a while. Both are miles ahead of the number three man (Stan) and you would think if Murray does not win a major title, Djoko will.
You could argue it's more likely that Rafa will get back to number one before any of the new players mentioned above, although IMHO the Spaniard's days at the very top are over.
What is possible over the new few months is something we have not had for many years - the number one position changing frequently. All the big three have put in big chunks of time at numero uno since Fed's first ascendancy in early 2004. In some years before that, the lead seemed to change hands almost weekly.

I think the next NEW number one will be one of the younger generation. I've voted for Thiem as he's a bit older than the rest and already ahead in terms of ranking and experience.

Possibly Nishikori or Raonic could sneak it as transitional when Murray/Djokovic fades and before any of the others are ready. I expect Murray to be good for another year at the top and then someone to catch him up.

I think Kyrgios will be too inconsistent. Thiem, Zverev or Pouille are all good bets.

All I know is Stan will NEVER be no 1. Far too inconsistent.

CaledonianCraig wrote:All I know is Stan will NEVER be no 1. Far too inconsistent.

I'm sure Stan will be more than content will having a 100% in major finals and beating the world #1 on each occasion.

Unlike the choker from Scotland....

Other: Kyle Edmund

I reckon it has to be one of the 18 - 22 year olds. None of the "generation" behind Djokovic and Murray seem capable of mounting a sustained challenge with occasional outbreaks of brilliance. I suppose a logical choice would have been Raonic who seems to be on an upward trajectory on the back of hard work and strategy rather than brilliant play.

Interesting question. I can't see Stan making it, as CC says he isn't consistent enough. He's also older than Murray and Djokovic so unlikely to benefit from when they drop off. Then it rather depends on how long those two (plus maybe Nadal) stay at the top of the game for. If they drop off in the next two years or so then you could see a bit of a situation with interim number ones such as Nishikori, Raonic, maybe even Cilic (who's a bit younger than Murray/Djoko, with fewer tennis miles on the clock), before the best of the youngsters emerges clearly.

Otherwise I'd expect someone like Zverev or Kyrgios.

My money would definitely be on Milos Raonic (providing he can avoid injuries for long spells).

CaledonianCraig wrote:My money would definitely be on Milos Raonic (providing he can avoid injuries for long spells).

Really?

I admire his work ethic and he seems like a nice guy, but his game is limited.

I expect there will always be someone better than him around. He may win Wimbledon or even a few slams. But I think someone with a more complete game will be no 1.

I've gone for Kyrgios. He might pull himself together mentally next year and I think he has more X-factor than the other options.

Guest82 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:My money would definitely be on Milos Raonic (providing he can avoid injuries for long spells).

Really?

I admire his work ethic and he seems like a nice guy, but his game is limited.  

I expect there will always be someone better than him around. He may win Wimbledon or even a few slams.  But I think someone with a more complete game will be no 1.

We are talking about the next new No 1 here. Raonic is far and away best placed to take it. He is ranked 4 now and 4 on year ending and has missed some tourneys through injury.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Guest82 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:My money would definitely be on Milos Raonic (providing he can avoid injuries for long spells).

Really?

I admire his work ethic and he seems like a nice guy, but his game is limited.  

I expect there will always be someone better than him around. He may win Wimbledon or even a few slams.  But I think someone with a more complete game will be no 1.

We are talking about the next new No 1 here. Raonic is far and away best placed to take it. He is ranked 4 now and 4 on year ending and has missed some tourneys through injury.

Statistically he seems the best bet with age and current ranking. I just think with his (limited) game there will always be someone better than him.

I went THiem, although you could go Zverev.
Kyrgios talent wise is above both, but temperement is casting a doubt.
It could well be none of the above, I coudl also see Djokovic and Murray holding on to number 1 for 2-3 years, before finally being replaced by a player who is currently a fairly unknown teenager.

Raonic has had injuries pretty much every year he's played. Just when you think he's making really headway he gets held back. I think H Bill has it right when he says that the next new number one might not be on the original list.

Cilic and then Delpo, when they can be healthy for one full season. Raonic and Kei have to come after them, but both are injury prone season after season. Cilic and Delpo have the firepower to hit anyone off the court when their game is on; both can serve big and move well for a very tall guy.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Cilic and then Delpo, when they can be healthy for one full season. Raonic and Kei have to come after them, but both are injury prone season after season.  Cilic and Delpo have the firepower to hit anyone off the court when their game is on; both can serve big and move well for a very tall guy.

Very good shout on Del Potro actually. Totally forgot about Juan.

Gone for Zverev. At 19 (not 20 until April) he has beaten a few high ranked players this year. These have included Wawrinka (in a final) and Cilic both of who have qualified for the O2. He also beat Federer at Halle which even if Federer was not completely match fit shows some bottle. So if he keeps fit, focused and improving he looks to have the ability to make No 1.

Others mentioned Wawrinka, Raonic, Nishikori, Del Portro and Cilic all have the ability but would really need to put a consistent full season together to get the number 1 slot and I'm not sure they can do that.

I like Thiem but am interested to see how he picks up after his recent bad run.

Not a big fan but Raonic probably would be the favourite subject to keeping his fitness!

Nishikori could be there also but he has so many problems with his fitness also.

For me out of the younger players Zverev could make it one day as could Kyrgios once he learns to control his attitude etc.

On that list - Kei Nishikori

But I expect del potro if injury free and might be sooner than we think

After seeing how well Raonic played against Murray in the WTF semi, I would have to say that the big Canadian has a shot at getting to the top. There's little doubt he's improved enormously. Has he lost some weight? It certainly looked like it. His movement is really quite good now.
His major problem is injuries. Just when it seems he's in excellent form he has to miss matches.

sirfredperry wrote:After seeing how well Raonic played against Murray in the WTF semi, I would have to say that the big Canadian has a shot at getting to the top. There's little doubt he's improved enormously. Has he lost some weight? It certainly looked like it. His movement is really quite good now.
  His major problem is injuries. Just when it seems he's in excellent form he has to miss matches.

I agree. Injury is the key. If he can stay fit for longer spells I can see him being not far away from claiming No 1 perhaps sometime in 2018.

CC - Milos won't want to repeat lost-from-a-winning-position scenarios in 2017. Both at Queen's and at the 02 he was a set and a break-up against Murray, yet lost.
He could become another Stan the Man, in that he could start winning Slams comparatively late in his career.

I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Raonic win Wimbledon at some point. Murray and Djokovic won't be around for ever, and Raonic has the best grass court game of the rest, possibly with the exception of Kyrgios if he can get his head screwed on somehow. Queens for me was more a case of Murray starting to work out the Raonic serve, and once he did that Raonic struggled to keep his attacking game plan going. Something he'll need to work on, as there'll always be good returners around who are capable of eventually getting at your serve.

I'm not sure that there will be MfC. Murray is probably the best returner of big serves we've ever seen. Even he only broke Raonic once at Wimbledon. The younger players are very much lacking a player who could be a great returner. The dominance of the big servers/ball bashers is coming.

Just looking at that list makes you realise how abysmal the tour is right now. The current top 10 is probably the weakest since at least 2001 and the follow up generation(s) as reflected by that list looks even worse! Federer is a top 16 player having played just half a dozen tournaments. Rafa is in the top 10 having played only half a season. Really in the doldrums.

Emancipator. I agree to a certain extent. You would certainly have expected to have seen some of those outside the big four/five pushing on in the absence of Rog and Rafa.
However, you could also argue that teenagers have probably won more matches on the main tour than for many years and we actually had a teenaged tournament winner for the first time since 2008.
I think some of the "weakness" arguments would go away if only Kyrgios put on his sensible head. He's outrageously talented but seems determined to be a dxxx-head.

sirfredperry wrote:CC - Milos won't want to repeat lost-from-a-winning-position scenarios in 2017. Both at Queen's and at the 02 he was a set and a break-up against Murray, yet lost.
  He could become another Stan the Man, in that he could start winning Slams comparatively late in his career.
   

As MfC says Andy won't be around for ever and neither will Novak. They are the best returners of serve in the world so when they go Raonic serve will be an even more potent weapon and but for Murray Raonic would already have won Wimbledon.

Agree about the ROS. In fact Nadal was another one who could return Raonic's (and Ivo's serves) very well (e.g. Shanghai 2015). Ferrer is another one. These four (including Djoko and Murray) will retire in a few years, I see no one else with their kind of returns, so players like Raonic, Kygrios will have their time in the sun without very good ROS'ers standing in their way.

I do feel that players like Djoko, Murray and Nadal will not come by anytime soon, now that big servers and big hitters are becoming the norm and there's the inclination towards quicker courts and shortening of matches/points. We may not see very much of long rallies/point construction/chess game/cat&mouse type of tennis going forward.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:


I do feel that players like Djoko, Murray and Nadal will not come by anytime soon, now that big servers and big hitters are becoming the norm and there's the inclination towards quicker courts and shortening of matches/points.  We may not see very much of long rallies/point construction/chess game/cat&mouse type of tennis going forward.

That should please a fair few posters (many former ones) on this forum.