AP Season Prediction

A bit of an annual habit for me now, a week or so before the season starts, to predict the end of season table in the Aviva Premiership. Normally I feel pretty confident about placing teams in an end of season table, although I obviously always get things wrong, I mean who could predict Bath's fall from grace last year! Despite the inevitability of an anomalous performance like Bath's down in 9th and Wasps up in 3rd, setting out I always feel confident that I know roughly where teams are after summer test tours and club recruitment. However, this year is definitely a gamblers nightmare. It seems there just is not enough space in the top 6 for all the sides that feel they should be there. Bath have a top 4 squad at least, Saints were so strong just 2 years ago will feel they can get back up there, Wasps have recruited some fantastic players, Quins have added depth and will feel they are in a better position to challenge. Then there is Sarries, Tigers and Chiefs who can all feel pretty secure in there top 4 ambitions and the outsiders Sale, Warriors and Bristol (with recent financial investment) who with the bounce of the egg shaped ball could put together a top half finish. So with much trepidation:

1st
Sarries. Has to be. They have such a strong squad to contend with test call ups, recruited the likes of Burger and I believe a young South African prop with much promise. I do not think they will have it as easy as last year and will struggle to do the double again but hard to see them losing many and I do expect they will score plenty of tries too.

2nd
Tigers. A little bold here but I just feel they have been marginally improving, they have brought in quality in the shape of Pieterson and Toomua and have some interesting youngsters looking to make an impact in Genge and Evans. They will be strong at home as usual and if Mauger gets the back line flowing and Tuilagi can stay fit they will be a challenge to Sarries dominance.

3rd
Exeter. Improving year on year, talented young players gaining vital experience with each season. In terms of recruitment they have kept their best players and Devoto probably the only player of note to come in but a good additional none the less. I feel they did not really need big recruitment, its this year that players like Slade, Nowell and Cowan Dickie need to step up if the Chiefs are going to jump that final hurdle and win the Premiership.

4th
Wasps. I have put wasps here but I am not convinced by their recruitment strategy. It would not surprise me if signing super star backs will mean they flatter to deceive this season, they should still be strong enough for the top 4 but not replacing George Smith could see them falter. On the other hand: Beale, Cipriani, Eastmond and Le Roux could be devastating.

5th
Saints. I am not confident here what so ever. Saints were so awful on many occasions last season they need a big improvement. They do still have a very powerful pack but missed Manoa badly I feel, so if Picamoles hits the ground running and young Harry Mallinder continues his U20 world cup form they could well force their way back up there. The battle for the Champions Cup spots are the hardest to call.

6th
Quins. Possibly some bias creeping in here as I am a season ticket holder at Quins and I am rather desperate for champions cup rugby. Quins made some big signings last year and initially it went quite well but fell away with test call ups. Recruitment has targeted squad depth which I think is correct and in the right areas, there is also a couple of players from last year which never really made it out of the treatment room in Talei and Stanley. Also looking for a big season from Yarde and a better one from Brown and Care.

7th
Bath. Really wanted to put bath in the top 6 as I think they have recruited well both in the playing squad and coaching department. Perhaps they have a couple of holes in the squad, midfield has been mentioned, but I have a sneaky feeling they may surprise a few this season. Really looking forward to seeing the likes of Falatau in the premiership and Blackadder has singled out George Ford for praise, with one eye on England, an on form Ford could be very exciting!

8th
Gloucester. Will be close run thing with Sale. Recruitment has not really impressed, nothing much in the squad to suggest they will be able to challenge at the top end of the table, its a tough league and Gloucester seem to be stood still currently. Jonny May is back from injury and there is some quality and experience in the squad. If Gloucester are to improve from middle table mediocrity they will need to start at home, a strong scrum would help, with a solid platform the backs they have would score tries.

9th
Sale. Not able to keep their best players, they still punch above their weight though. I always put sale down in 9-10th and they always do better. They have some good prospects coming through but losing cipriani is a big blow, I do not know much about Macginty but we will see. I cant see them equalling last season finish of 6th.

10th
Worcester. Strong end to last season showed they could get the results to challenge higher up the league. Hougaard is a quality player they will delighted to have kept him and bringing in ben Teo shows some ambition. Warriors have never quite been able to shake off the tag of relegation battlers but there is no reason they could not put a run together and challenge the top 6 as sale have done.

11th
Bristol. Its been a while. Bristol should have achieved promotion sooner but bottled it in the playoffs. Jordan Crane has been signed and there are a few experienced heads in that squad. They will feel they have some momentum and not having played premiership rugby for some time will motivate the club and players. I think these factors will be enough to avoid relegation, they are not of a bob or two either by all accounts.

12th
Newcastle Falcons. Just feel they have gone backwards a little. If you not moving forwards then you are going backwards. They should win a few games but I just feel Bristol will want it more.

Like your top 4 calls, would swap Wasps and Leicester and can see Bath improving a lot but falling short at 5th.

HQ Matt I like your reasoning behind your choices, think it's a good shout. It's hard to predict.

1.Exeter (Champions)
2.Sarries
3.Leicester
4.Saints
5.Wasps
6.Bath
7.Quins
8.Sale
9.Gloucester
10.Worcester
11.Bristol
12.Newcastle

Exeter have been going from strength to strength and I think this could be their year. Might raise eyebrows at putting Wasps outside the top 4 but like you I am not impressed by their recruitment, still think they are a bit weak in the frontrow compared to the likes of Saints,Exeter,Sarries and Leicester. As you said Smith is a big loss plus Haskell being injured for a long time. Think they needed to put a bit more emphasis in the pack.

Bath have recruited well and even though there are some flaws should be enough for top 6.

Relegation battle is very hard to call. I put Sale 8th because they seem to defy expectations and stay out of relegation battle.

Whilst this year will be as competitive as ever I do think there are clear tiers developing which will be difficult to break. Sarries will top the league with 2-5 made up from Chiefs, Wasps, Tigers and Saints in any order. 6-9 will be Sale, Bath, Quins and Glaws again in any order. Finally 10-12 will be Falcons, Wuss and Brizzle. I can't see any side falling outside of these tiers.

I can see it being Sarries, Chiefs, Tigers, Wasps, Saints, Sale, Bath, Glaws, Quins, Falcons, Wuss, Brizzle.

1. Tigers
2. Saracens
3. Exeter
4. Bath
5. Wasps
6. Saints
7. Sale
8. Quins
9. Gloucester
10. Bristol/Newcastle
11. Newcastle/Bristol
12. Worcester

I'm finding it hard to see past Saracens winning it again.
For me the top four will be them plus Tigers, Exeter and Wasps.

I think The two Europe spots will go to Saints plus Bath and then a close bunch of Sale, Quins and Gloucester.

Below that I think there will be a mini relegation league of Wuss, Newcastle and Bristol. At the moment I am a little worried about Newcastle but I can see good arguments about any of them, especially if any get off to a bad start.

All in all I think a number of sides have made some good signings but I am not convinced that anyone will be able to break out of the mini leagues which formed last season, although I am looking forward to seeing what happens.

HQ matt wrote:12th
Newcastle Falcons. Just feel they have gone backwards a little. If you not moving forwards then you are going backwards. They should win a few games but I just feel Bristol will want it more.

Then you blatantly haven't got any clue about the ins and outs at Newcastle, the lack of mass injuries to key players and the progress of the youngsters.

Thought I might upset some falcons fans and it is difficult to call the bottom 3. But falcons have always produced good youngsters but the failure to push towards middle table means they usually lose them (often to tigers). didnt see anything last season to suggest falcons will finish anywhere but 11th or 12th and as I said i just feel bristol have some momentum after promotion after so many years in the championship.

As in said in the intro... i am often very wrong!

I understand our recent history, lack of serious budget etc, so I guess its obvious for us to be no1 favorites for relegation.

However theres 3 factors that give the falcons a bit of belief that we will push up to 10th this season

1. Lack of injuries. We have a nightmare history recently with injuries. Losing Jon Welsh, Scott Wilson and a large number of others almost as soon as the season started, plus last season we also had about 10 internationals missing due to the world cup...just to compound that.

This season aside from our LH's, Latu and Sean Robinson we have basically a fully fit available side with the likes of Socino looking like the player of old.

2. Our pack was a good, workmanlike pack...but we lacked some real physicality and big time carrying ability which meant we found ourselves on the backfoot so much (Hence Wilson and Welch topping the tackle stats). This summer we've kept the workhorses but we've added some genuine carriers. Players that will get us on the front foot much more than we were able to do last year and give our classy wingers (Sinoti, Goneva, Watson, Kibirige) more chances... (at least I hope)

3. The much vaunted kids are really starting to come through...Robinson was very good last season...Will Witty has been on fire in the preseasons and looking a big unit, Kibirige looks on fire after his troubles. Willis looks like a top 10 in the making etc.

Keep an eye out for Evan Olmstead a new lock / 6 (Canadian international) hes been on fire in preseason and Chisanga a young Kenyan international back rower. A young raw bigger version of Nili Latu.

I will keep my eyes open for the players you mention and hope you guys can avoid any injury crises, they are a nightmare.

Worcester
Saints
Tigers
Wasps
Bath
Chiefs
Quins
Sale
Gloucester
Bristol
Newcastle
Saracens

Suppose if you really wanted to you could swap first and last, but this is definitely how it's gonna end up.

Saracens
Exeter
Leicester
Wasps (Champions)
Northampton
Bath
Sale
Gloucester
Harlequins
Bristol
Newcastle
Worcester

Saints 2nd is a big call fuzzy

Bit depressed everyone has quins down in 7th or 8th

Most interesting start to the season coming up in a while, a lot of changes. I'm gonna go out on a bit of a limb here.

Sarries
Wasps (Champions)
Exeter
Leicester
Quins
Saints
Bath
Sale
Bristol
Newcastle
Worcester
Gloucester

Wow some big calls there Gimpo....

Beshocked is the man ......................never thought I would agree with him but ....



1.Exeter (Champions)
2.Sarries
3.Leicester
4.Saints
5.Wasps
6.Bath
7.Quins
8.Sale
9.Gloucester
10.Worcester
11.Bristol
12.Newcastle

Exeter have been going from strength to strength and I think this could be their year. Might raise eyebrows at putting Wasps outside the top 4 but like you I am not impressed by their recruitment, still think they are a bit weak in the frontrow compared to the likes of Saints,Exeter,Sarries and Leicester. As you said Smith is a big loss plus Haskell being injured for a long time. Think they needed to put a bit more emphasis in the pack.

Bath have recruited well and even though there are some flaws should be enough for top 6.

Relegation battle is very hard to call. I put Sale 8th because they seem to defy expectations and stay out of relegation battle.


Last edited by beshocked on Wed Aug 31, 2016 10:42 am; edited 1 time in total

beshocked

Posts : 12479
Join date : 2011-03-08

View user profile Send private message

Do people really see Bristol as better than us??

The top 4 picks itself I think. I'd back Exeter to win it as well, they've been an excellent team ever since they got promoted to the top flight. Sarries will do well again this year too.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Do people really see Bristol as better than us??

Exeter has caused people to stop under-estimating the promoted side to perhaps now over-estimating them. I've really missed the derby game with Brizzle, but sadly I can't see it lasting beyond this season. Their squad simply isn't good enough; they have signed a number of people towards the twilight of their career, i.e. Crane, Tiny and it remains to be seen whether they are good enough to lift the rest of the side. Their defence at times last year was woeful, particularly in midfield and whilst Hurrell is going to add a strong crash ball option, I can't see him being pivotal in improving their defence. Furthermore, they don't have good enough goal kicking options and this will cost them points. I'm sure they will get the odd scalp (no doubt Glaws'!) but for me Falcons' pack will be too powerful and you'll do the double over them and definitely finish higher.

That's pretty much my thoughts. Tiny was massively on the wane when he left Saints, so I just cant see how he can be anywhere near what is required in the prem now.
(Watch me be proved wrong)

And I just don't know where they have what it takes to survive.

Yet everyone seems to have us worse than them.

And Wuss are missing players...have a mounting injury list (that screwed us big time last season) and have lost Dean Ryan. They're not in a great spot either.

Yet we have a smooth preseason , no injuries, some impressive signings and yet we're guaranteed the drop!

Wuss looked pretty decent at times last season, I think they'll be difficult opponents should they take the ECC seriously. Are there actually any Bristol fans on here?

Pretty much agree with your assesment.

The way I see it Sarries have to be clear favouritees, they are the powerhouse.

After that Tigersd, Saints Exeter form a group who would expect to make up the playoffs
With Bath, Wasps Quins having a realistic propect of crashing in on them.
Gloucester/ Sale could pressure the European spots and are probably too good to get drawn into the relegation battle but are unlikley to trouble the playoff battle
Worcester, Bristol, Newcastle are likely to be battling relegation.

The point regarding Newcastle...I think it partly comes form them battling relegation year in year out. I personaly feel Bristol will have a tough time of it but lets wait and see. I dont think 10th is beyond any of those 3.

mikey_dragon wrote: Are there actually any Bristol fans?

Not that would admit it publicaly

Last season was last season though.

Teams have changed through the summer...ie losing their coach etc.

We were poor last season but the season before we played some cracking rugby. I think we'll play some cracking rugby this season....

Ah so I guess I can't be informed of how their (Bristol) Welsh internationals are doing then. The last I heard is that Ian Evans was still injured and in a contract that ends mid-season, which is why Dragons are having to wait to sign him up.

GeordieFalcon wrote:t the season before we played some cracking rugby. ....

...yet only didnt get relegated because London Welsh took the weewee
Taking out the free 10 points for them being in their Falcons record wasnt really much different than the years either side.

Its not just last season is it.
To be fair Newcastle did managed to not finish in the bottom 2 in one of the last 6 seasons ...albeit through having got relegated and not being in the premiership at all.

When a team struggles again and again their name is going to come up in discussions of relegation candidates regardless of new coaches and players (and London Welsh had quite a few of those)

Record bashing aside I hope they do produce some decent games and that the league as whole stays competitive through the season.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Last season was last season though.

Teams have changed through the summer...ie losing their coach etc.

We were poor last season but the season before we played some cracking rugby. I think we'll play some cracking rugby this season....

Best of luck GF ... for me it's sort of nice in an odd way to be able to just watch with interest this year without being permanently stressed about relegation - at least (hopefully) this year I can watch LI win more then they lose.

at least (hopefully) this year I can watch LI win more then they lose

That's the good thing about the championship - although you will face some mighty tussles and you might get beat once or twice, the majority of the time you will come away with a 'W'.

The playoffs are right gut churners though.

Gooseberry wrote:Pretty much agree with your assesment.

The way I see it Sarries have to be clear favouritees, they are the powerhouse.

After that Tigersd, Saints Exeter form a group who would expect to make up the playoffs
With Bath, Wasps Quins having a realistic propect of crashing in on them.
Gloucester/ Sale could pressure the European spots and are probably too good to get drawn into the relegation battle but are unlikley to trouble the playoff battle
Worcester, Bristol, Newcastle are likely to be battling relegation.

The point regarding Newcastle...I think it partly comes form them battling relegation year in year out. I personaly feel Bristol will have a tough time of it but lets wait and see. I dont think 10th is beyond any of those 3.

I pretty much agree with that analysis except I think Wasps would make the top group. From a Worcester point of view I don't know how Ryan's departure will affect the team. I wonder how long they knew he was going and it's interesting that they didn't feel the need to replace him. I think that it's going to be tight at the bottom again with results between the bottom 3 or 4 deciding matters. Be nice to think Wuss can cause a couple of upsets again though as well as stealing a few extra BPs to help make them safe. We will see..

TrailApe wrote:

at least (hopefully) this year I can watch LI win more then they lose

That's the good thing about the championship - although you will face some mighty tussles and you might get beat once or twice, the majority of the time you will come away with a 'W'.

The playoffs are right gut churners though.

They certainly are - the Worcester v Bristol one was a cracker and must have been heart breaking for Bristol.

Gooseberry wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:t the season before we played some cracking rugby. ....

...yet only didnt get relegated because London Welsh took the weewee
Taking out the free 10 points for them being in their Falcons record wasnt really much different than the years either side.

Its not just last season is it.
To be fair Newcastle did managed to not finish in the bottom 2 in one of the last 6 seasons ...albeit through having got relegated and not being in the premiership at all.

When a team struggles again and again their name is going to come up in discussions of relegation candidates regardless of new coaches and players (and London Welsh had quite a few of those)

Record bashing aside I hope they do produce some decent games and that the league as whole stays competitive through the season.

Lodon Welsh are a mockery I agree, and Yes still were second bottom, but we weren't nearly as strong personnel wise then as I believe we will be this season. Much of Deans strategy has relied on development of the local talent we have...tat takes time. We will see much fruit coming from that this season I think. Plus the ability to actually keep hold of the players is a huge bonus this last few seasons.

I think we'll start off by beating Sale on Friday.

I think the talent across the Premiership is stronger than in recent years.  Better personnel and more depth across the board at virtually club.  So I think this season will be more competitive and I find it hard to predict almost anything.  As someone else said there does appear to be three tiers.  I see them like this, but I do not think it will take much to change things up:  The top 5 including Wasps, Saracens, Tigers, Exeter, Saints.  A Middle tier including Quins, Sale, Bath, Gloucester.  The bottom Tier including Newcastle, Worcester, Bristol.  I know this isn't rocket science, but it's all I have at the moment.

Saracens
Wasps
Leicester
Exeter
Northampton/ Bath*
Harlequins
Sale
Worcester
Gloucester
Newcastle/ Bristol*

* Denotes where I can't make up my mind.

Agree with the good doctor that all teams look stronger across the board. Really looking forward to it all getting started on Friday.

TrailApe wrote:

at least (hopefully) this year I can watch LI win more then they lose

That's the good thing about the championship - although you will face some mighty tussles and you might get beat once or twice, the majority of the time you will come away with a 'W'.

The playoffs are right gut churners though.

Yep for a while it looked like they'd come to their senses and scrapped them but unfortunately not - I've always thought they were a ridiculous idea ...

I agree with the 3 tiers philosophy. But i am not so pessimistic about movement between them. I think baths gall from grace lasy year and wasps aventurous game yielding a big change in fortunes proves this. Exeter have slso shown you dont need to spend big on foriegn stars to get up there either.

HQ matt wrote:I agree with the 3 tiers philosophy. But i am not so pessimistic about movement between them. I think baths gall from grace lasy year and wasps aventurous game yielding a big change in fortunes proves this. Exeter have slso shown you dont need to spend big on foriegn stars to get up there either.

I think that's the route we are trying to follow (we have no choice with a lack of budget) with not quite as much success....until this season

For me, it will be as follows:

1. Saracens
2. Exeter
3. Leicester
4. Northampton
5. Bath
6. Wasps
7. Sale
8. Gloucester
9. Harlequins
10. Newcastle
11. Bristol
12. Worcester

GeordieFalcon wrote:Do people really see Bristol as better than us??

No, I think Newcastle will be fine and be slightly better than last season, particularly with Sinoti back. Worcester should be worried. Have had an awful pre-season, haven't recruited particularly well and I am not sure Hogg is cut out for the top position.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Do people really see Bristol as better than us??

About on a par, hence me not being able to split you in 10th/11th.  For me your pack looks ok, and your back three look excellent, it's how you connect them that will be the problem. 9,10,12, 13 all of major issues and I can't see them being consistently good enough to get you any higher. 

Worcester for me will struggle.  No Pennell, Hougaard and Potgeiter for the start of the season is a massive loss for them, and looking at the rest of the squad there are some decidedly average players in there.  I think they will be comfortably bottom come next May.

Ozzy3213 wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:Do people really see Bristol as better than us??

About on a par, hence me not being able to split you in 10th/11th.  For me your pack looks ok, and your back three look excellent, it's how you connect them that will be the problem. 9,10,12, 13 all of major issues and I can't see them being consistently good enough to get you any higher. 

Worcester for me will struggle.  No Pennell, Hougaard and Potgeiter for the start of the season is a massive loss for them, and looking at the rest of the squad there are some decidedly average players in there.  I think they will be comfortably bottom come next May.

Your right, that is the key areas for us.

9 - I believe this has been fixed. Takulua is a good strong young scrum half, just needed some time. He's played very well this preseason, and Egerton has been far more the type of scrum half we are looking for. He's brought real energy and pace to the game when he has played in the preseasons. Hopefully Michael Young will be kept well away from the proceedings!

10 - Delayney is the go to man and I just don't rate him at all. Average championship player If you ask me. But he kicks his percentages of goals which could be critical in many games. Catterick is rapidly losing his chances as he's not young any more, but Hodgson looked decent in his preseason appearances...bringing real pace to the game, which should help our attack.
Willis is the man though. Once his goal kicking consistency is sorted he'll be our first choice by a country mile for years to come. He may even have taken the spot through the season.

12 - Socino looks back to his best after a woeful last season...but the back ups are kids...talented but inexperienced kids none the less.

13 - Harris is ok. I think we have better kids coming through....and I also think we'll see Goneva there quite a bit. Makes sense when you have Goneva, Sinotti (the best shape ive ever seen him), Watson (Olympic 7's winner) , Kibirige (Who looks in awesome shape) and new youngster Dan Marshall.... all looking for spots.

I really fancy us for 10th spot.

1) Sarracens - need I say more
2) Tigers
3) Wasps
4) Exeter
5) Bath
6) Sale
7) Saints
8) Quins
9) Gloucester
10) Falcons
11) Bristol
12) Worcester

1) Saracens
2) Wasps
3) Exeter
4) Leicester
5) Bath
6) Saints
7) Quins
8) Sale
9) Gloucester
10) Worcester (fingers crossed)
11) Falcons
12) Bristol