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6 Nation sides chances in the Upcoming World Cup

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Post by stevetynant Sat 11 Jun 2011, 8:45 pm

Just read this http://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/reasons-to-be-cheerful-2672353.html - Peter Bills in the Irish Inependant giving his views on the realistic chances (in his opinion of course) of our sides doing well in New Zealand. I think this is the best assessment I've read anywhere and pretty much mirrors what I think will happen - its an excellent read - see what you think

I'm contrasting this with the garbage Ieaun Evans has written in the Western Mail about Wales chances http://www.walesonline.co.uk/rugbynation/rugby-news/2011/06/11/wales-can-hit-glory-trail-in-world-cup-says-ieuan-evans-91466-28858381/ - talk about blinkered journalism - anyway like I said see what you think 8)

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Post by Shifty Sat 11 Jun 2011, 8:56 pm

Scotland to get knocked out at the pool stage to Argentina.

Wales will get knocked out in the quarters to Australia.

South Africa will knock out Ireland in the quarters.

France will knock England out in the quarters.
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Post by red_stag Sat 11 Jun 2011, 8:58 pm

I suspect that Ireland will record a surprise Australia in the pool stages and you know what a Wales v Ireland quarter final would actually be pretty open. Similarly England v France is such an tight game to call.
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Post by welshy824 Sat 11 Jun 2011, 9:03 pm

you see to me what ieaun evans says is fairly accurate, the problem is with the welsh squad is "IF" or "On their day" or "when they are all fit" which is the problems

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Post by red_stag Sat 11 Jun 2011, 9:04 pm

Anyone else thing form goes out the window at World Cups.
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Post by mrsuperclear Sat 11 Jun 2011, 9:10 pm

Definitely Stag. How else do you explain England getting to the final of the last one?

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Post by Cymroglan Sat 11 Jun 2011, 9:16 pm

The host nation are going to be under immense pressure to win this year and that could be the stumbling block even for the No1 team in the world.
As for us NH lot I would think France would progress the furthest but it all depends how much France want it.

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Post by Taylorman Sat 11 Jun 2011, 9:24 pm

Without that last England match you'd still be lifting Englands chances and lowering Irelands so one match I think has given too much lean for both countries I feel.

England approached consistency in the AI's toppling Oz again and doing well against the ABs and thrashing Italy but then fell off into a lull from the SA match onwards.

No one else had anywhere near what you could call consistency and will be hoping to be this years France- even France themselves. I think that team will be Ireland- theyve been out here recently and have the best credentials to cause an upset.

England though, will be the best of the 6, well qualified to be in the top 4 and in so doing have as much chance as anyone at that point.

I supported Wales through the 6N but they just dont have the players to achieve any kind of momentum on attack. Just can't see them winning matches through not being able to do much.

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Post by Knowsit17 Sat 11 Jun 2011, 9:26 pm

Clearly a biased read, one outright positive review and guess which team it was on...

I'd class the the past few years as fringing on an Irish golden era in terms of player determination and world class quality. Certainly for the provinces, an outstanding 5 European victories in 12 years. Strangely, not many stupidly funded French clubs have come calling for Irish services...or are the players of the rare breed that is able to put heart over coin in the current supermarket?
Nevertheless, during only one of those twelve years have the players been able to take the full potential of that passion into a green jersey and use it to achieve recognized success. I won't lie, in 2007 I considered Ireland chokers of the highest degree. There has been no remarkable sign about the national side since 2009. That's not to say they have no chance and I agree they are perfectly capable of seeing off Oz. Good thing they haven't got the favourites tag this year otherwise I'd be harsher in my view but as it is Ireland vs Australia should be intriguing. No comment beyond that game. Although last time the Irish almost fell to Georgia and were tested by Namibia so maybe complacency is an issue.

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Post by nottins Sat 11 Jun 2011, 9:33 pm

AlynDavies wrote:Scotland to get knocked out at the pool stage to Argentina.

Wales will get knocked out in the quarters to Australia.

South Africa will knock out Ireland in the quarters.

France will knock England out in the quarters.

Wales will be lucky to even make the quarter finals.

England don't often lose to France in the games that count.


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Post by Shifty Sat 11 Jun 2011, 9:37 pm

Knowsit17 wrote:Clearly a biased read, one outright positive review and guess which team it was on...

I'd class the the past few years as fringing on an Irish golden era in terms of player determination and world class quality.

I'd agree the Irish have only won 2 Grand slams in their entire history so the 2009 one must most certainly be classed as a golden era period, especially if you include the triple crowns won in 2004, 2006, and 2007 that led up to it. They won 4 Triple crowns in that 6 year period. They have only won 6 other Triple Crowns in their history prior to it since 1875!
Obviously if you include O'Driscoll as captain of the Lions, their provinces European successes and Celtic league wins then clearly this period is the most successful in Irelands entire history!
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Post by red_stag Sat 11 Jun 2011, 9:40 pm

Alyn the big question though is will Ireland return to our losing ways. Or is it the case that we have got our act together in the pro era and will/can improve further.

Genuine question to see what people outside Ireland think.
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Post by Shifty Sat 11 Jun 2011, 9:56 pm

red_stag wrote:Alyn the big question though is will Ireland return to our losing ways. Or is it the case that we have got our act together in the pro era and will/can improve further.

Genuine question to see what people outside Ireland think.

I think you might struggle after the World Cup. people like O'Gara and Stringer whilst not neccasarily first choices any more do bring a certain level of security to your teams. Sexton is developing brilliantly but he isnt as cool headed as O'Gara and still isnt consistent to the point where I feel he could guide Ireland to a Grand slam by being solid for 5 games in a row. I'm just not sure Sexton is ready to work without the safety net of O'Gara.
Secondly I know Brian O'Driscoll and Paul O'Connell are 32 and 31, yet they have been around for many years now and have many caps their bodies surely cant go on much further. You have to look at home many seasons of international rugby they have played and how many injuries they have had. Not everyone can play on till their 35 I'm afraid. Neil Jenkins got capped for Wales when he was 19 and started very early, yet at the age of 31 his body was knackered 8-12 seasons is the maximum a player can do, and physical players like O'Driscoll will struggle. Remember that body has to last until he's 85 not just the end of his playing career!

Contrast this to Wales who will lose:
Shane Williams (34)
Stephen Jones (33)
Martyn Williams (35)

But we already have Priestland, Tovey, Hook, Biggar vying for the Fly Half spot, with Nicky Robinson, Ceri Sweeney backing them up. While Warburton has taken Williams place from him already. Shane Williams has big shoes to fill, but he's no bigger for us that Brian O'Driscoll is for Ireland and Wales do have players like North, Halfpenny, Prydie, and Brew pushing him! I think Ireland will have a bit more rebuilding to do than Wales after this world Cup. Though I also think Ireland are on a high and their systems and provinces are built on solid foundations which will enable them to rebuild quickly. I don't think all this trawling around for players with Irish ancestry is going to do much though, they should develop REAL Irish players, not forigners with an Irish granny.


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Post by Pot Hale Sat 11 Jun 2011, 10:00 pm

Ireland have the potential to beat Australia - no question. But they stumble every time they hit foreign soil outside of the UK.

England will want to have a good innings in the warm up matches in August. If they get them, then they'll be in good cup mode for New Zealand. And if things go according to current pool assumptions, they should be able to beat France who have been poor performers this year. The warm-ups against Ireland - home and away - should give a good indication of how fluid and composed they are.

Wales won't beat South Africa - or rather they shouldn't. However, the Boks performance in the 3 Nations is going to reveal a lot as to where SA are. De Villiers has to record some wins away from the SA veldt - ideally in New Zealand, whatever about Australia. They've got the finishing horsepower up front, but a lack of a cutting edge in the backline could well be their undoing.

Scotland and Italy in the also rans category.
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Post by mr-bryns-attitude Sat 11 Jun 2011, 10:02 pm

fair play to ieuan,his glass is certainly half full! the reality is the welsh backs are not good enough to trouble the top teams,the backs that could cause problems are woefully off form or injured, phillips,byrne,shane,half p,roberts,wales need those backs fit and playing well,also i stated my views about howley our backs coach on a previous topic,can someone please supply me with evidence of his usefulness? i believe wales will reach the quarters battered and bruised and enjoy the rest of the competition from the comfort of their armchairs.

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Post by red_stag Sat 11 Jun 2011, 10:13 pm

I always hear the argument that Ireland will struggle after the World Cup argument but I just don't see it. Here's a team who are all 28 years old or younger. And bear in mind 31 and 32 year olds are hardly going to be retiring immediatly. The reason they can last like this is that the Magners League is not seeing O'Driscoll and O'Connell playing regularly. They have a rest programme and there is young talent coming through. This team here is all under 28 and then the likes of Leamy, Jennings, Reddan and Ross who I have not included who still have much to offer.

01 Cian Healy (23 years old)
02 Rory Best (28 years old)
03 Jamie Hagan (24 years old)
04 Donnacha Ryan (27 years old)
05 Dan Tuohy (25 years old)
06 Stephen Ferris (25 years old)
07 Sean O'Brien (23 years old)
08 Jamie Heaslip (27 years old)
09 Tomas O'Leary (27 years old)
10 Jonathon Sexton (25 years old)
11 Luke Fitzgerald (23 years old)
12 Fergus McFadden (24 years old)
13 Keith Earls (23 years old)
14 Tommy Bowe (27 years old)
15 Rob Kearney (25 years old)

16 Sean Cronin (25 years old)
17 Paddy McAllister (21 years old)
18 Ian Nagle (22 years old)
19 Rhys Ruddock (20 years old)
20 Conor Murray (22 years old)
21 Ian Keatley (24 years old)
22 Andrew Trimble (26 years old)


Last edited by red_stag on Sat 11 Jun 2011, 10:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by red_stag Sat 11 Jun 2011, 10:14 pm

Pot Hale wrote:Ireland have the potential to beat Australia - no question. But they stumble every time they hit foreign soil outside of the UK.

Sadly its true.
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Post by ML Sat 11 Jun 2011, 10:14 pm

stevetynant wrote:Just read this http://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/reasons-to-be-cheerful-2672353.html - Peter Bills in the Irish Inependant giving his views on the realistic chances (in his opinion of course) of our sides doing well in New Zealand. I think this is the best assessment I've read anywhere and pretty much mirrors what I think will happen - its an excellent read - see what you think

I'm contrasting this with the garbage Ieaun Evans has written in the Western Mail about Wales chances http://www.walesonline.co.uk/rugbynation/rugby-news/2011/06/11/wales-can-hit-glory-trail-in-world-cup-says-ieuan-evans-91466-28858381/ - talk about blinkered journalism - anyway like I said see what you think 8)

The Peter Bills article is cliche ridden, recycles old news and opinions given a thousand times or more and reaches a predictable conclusion for the Irish Independent that I disagree with anyway - why did he even bother to write it?

The "Ieaun Evans article"
A) Wasn't written by Ieaun Evans
B) Again just recycles old news and theories.

Personally I think England stand the best chance of getting beyond the quarters but Ireland, Wales and France will be there and in with a chance if their opponents have an off day.

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Post by nottins Sat 11 Jun 2011, 10:16 pm

AlynDavies wrote:
Contrast this to Wales who will lose:
Shane Williams (34)
Stephen Jones (33)
Martyn Williams (35)

So, you've named 3 Welsh players who aren't likely to make it to the next 6 Nations, but only 2 Irish players who you don't think will make it, yet both of them are years younger than the Welsh players you mentioned. Ireland have as many, if not more and better players than Wales coming through the ranks.

AlynDavies wrote:
I don't think all this trawling around for players with Irish ancestry is going to do much though, they should develop REAL Irish players, not forigners with an Irish granny.

Perhaps Wales should do the same as well.....

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Post by Knowsit17 Sat 11 Jun 2011, 10:17 pm

Can't see Wales having an easy time against anyone in their group. I won't list the shortcomings, in short when exactly was the last time Wales won comfortably against a competent side?

No further than the QF's this year, if even that far. That is excluding the possibility of us coming to life and making this go down as our historic rope-a-dope period.

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Post by Guest Sat 11 Jun 2011, 11:21 pm

I wouldn't say Wales would be lucky to make the quarters. I'd be very surprised if they didn't. I'd expect Wales to have a big point to prove. Playing SA first and the likely defeat means knockout rugby (because they won't have the luxury of anymore defeats) and from that I'd expect them to beat both Samoa and Fiji. The only thing that will let them down is if we have contactitis when the hits start flying around, but our first team won't suffer from that. I'd also favour our pack, especially if Faletau plays 8.

I'll comment on the rest shortly, but I'd expect England to do best probably.

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Post by Guest Sat 11 Jun 2011, 11:45 pm

Italy won't get out of the group. Scotland and England will, as will Ireland.

Quarter 1 England v France
2 Australia v Wales
3 NZ v Scotland
4 SA v Ireland

Semi 1 England v Australia
2 NZ v SA

Final England v NZ

Winner NZ.

That's how it will map out for me.

England have quite a favourable run. They know they can beat France and Australia too which helps. I probably wouldn't be too surprised if Ireland beat SA though, but then they'd be on hiding to nothing by getting to the semi final then anyway.

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Post by mrsuperclear Sun 12 Jun 2011, 12:21 am

That's the most logical conclusion of how the world cup will go Risca Rev. I don't think you'd find too many people who would disagree with it. However, it rarely pans out how you'd logically assume it would. What if France beat NZ in the group, Ireland beat Australia, Fiji/Samoa beat Wales and Argentina beat Scotland? All permutations that aren't out of the question by any means. Hopefully a couple will happen and make the world cup more interesting. For my part, I agree with your predications. Putting my optimistic/slightly realistic hat on though, Ireland to beat Australia in the group, Wales in the 1/4, England in the semi and then get beaten, as usual, by New Zealand in the final. Won't happen though, will it? ....... We'll thrash NZ in the final sure 8)

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Post by majesticimperialman Sun 12 Jun 2011, 7:58 am

Without that last England match you'd still be lifting Englands chances and lowering Irelands so one match I think has given too much lean for both countries I feel.

England approached consistency in the AI's toppling Oz again and doing well against the ABs and thrashing Italy but then fell off into a lull from the SA match onwards.

........................................................................................................................
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If you take the game aginst Ireland it was the last game of the 6ns.

And if you take the SA game the last game of the Ais.

It seems like a pattern amergeing, England doing well untill the last game of the tournament.

I hope this does not continue or England will take over the chokers tag from NZ.

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Post by stevetynant Sun 12 Jun 2011, 8:35 am

Well I think he's got things pretty much spot on in the article- England have the easiest draw of the home nations and could make it through but they won't win it -they showed in Dublin how far off the pace they are - but in 4 years time that may well be a different story.

France- who knows - they win in New Zealand like the others don't but this is not a vintage crop and Lievermont is not coaching well and will be gone I would guess after the WC. I could see an exit at the quarters looming.

Scotland - could fail to get to the quarters - their game with England will be massive and its not beyond them but they need eveyone fit and firing and England not on form I suspect.

Wales - I will be over the moon if they make the quarters - and then who knows. they don't look confident, lots of injury worries and Gatland is struggling to come up with new ideas. The Welsh sides in Europe and the Magners were awful but they do have quality in a lot of positions and won't struggle for set piece ball. The young back row looks pretty exciting now and the front row when everyones available is World Class - the backs unusually for Wales are a whole different story.

Ireland - which side will turn up? the side that beat England and they could go all the way (to the semis anyway) The side that struggled with Italy and a repeat of the last World Cup could be on the cards. I think the miserable experience of the last WC will stand them in good stead and the emergence of Ross,O'Brien and Sexton will make a big difference - now if only they could get Ferris fit aswel and they'd be some side.

Having said that can anyone see any side other the the Blacks winning it this time round?

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Post by 21st Century Schizoid Man Sun 12 Jun 2011, 8:56 am

Need to agree with you Steve. Hope you are wrong but suspect you have got it spot on. Scotland need massive games v Argentina and England with all players firing. If our back row - Barclay, Brown and Beattie(if he re-discovers form)- get going we can do some damage
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Post by stevetynant Sun 12 Jun 2011, 9:04 am

Who to play at outside half will be crucial for Scotland aswel - Don't think Parks has had his best season this year - I like the young guy Hodge is it? - but he's so inexperienced - might be worth the gamble though.

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Post by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Sun 12 Jun 2011, 9:21 am

Risca Rev wrote:Italy won't get out of the group. Scotland and England will, as will Ireland.

Quarter 1 England v France
2 Australia v Wales
3 NZ v Scotland
4 SA v Ireland

Semi 1 England v Australia
2 NZ v SA

Final England v NZ

Winner NZ.

That's how it will map out for me.

England have quite a favourable run. They know they can beat France and Australia too which helps. I probably wouldn't be too surprised if Ireland beat SA though, but then they'd be on hiding to nothing by getting to the semi final then anyway.

Rev, I hope and suspect that you will be right - Scotland will have to overcome a fairly unknown quantity in Argentina to reach the quarters, where assuming they lose narrowly to England in the pool, they will meet NZ and that's the end of that. Wales have some bruising encounters to get thru in the pool, and must find the game management to defeat obdurate opponents. Your quarter, semi and final predictions look about right to me thumbsup

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Post by redrugbyexile Sun 12 Jun 2011, 10:14 am

Aslongas................

I do agree with your likely view of events, but from a Welsh perspective, Australia are the one SH nation we dont have head problems with. If we move on to a semi against England then the Summer games take on even more relevance, because England would not fancy a game against a fully fit, confident running Welsh side (make no mistake Wales would have their tails up hugely by then). England beat Wales the last six nations, but the Welsh effort was poor whilst England were delighted. 7 or 8 points was the final margin, this is a nothing gap to close in terms of performance etc.

Cutting to the chase though, i wouldn't be surprised if Wales get beat up at the pool stages and either dont qualify or get trounced against the Aussies with a much weaker team.

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Post by rodders Sun 12 Jun 2011, 11:17 am

France have the quality to go all the way but our a shambles right now so it's hard to say with them.

Ireland I believe have the best and most experience squad of players and therefore have the potential to go a long way. After the 2007 shambles I won't get too excited though. We'll have to break our duck of beating SH opposition away to which is a big ask but with a bit of luck a SF or Final is possible.

I think Wales and Scotland are pretty poor right now. Scotland though could upset England in the group but I think they may struggle to get out of that group. Wales have talent but I think they are on a downward spiral under gatland.

I don't think Italy will get out of the group but will probably give Ireland a tough time.

England have some good players and a good coach in Johnson. Team spirit looks good and they have a very good draw should they top their group. I don't think they have the mental strength or experience to cope when the pressure is on against the good sides but they could make the final depending on who they come up against.




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Post by welshy824 Sun 12 Jun 2011, 11:40 am

the thing is if any of the teams get into the quarters you never know what will happen, i mean i hate to use this word but "POTENTIALY" wales "COULD" beat anyone in their group... if thye play well and play with confidence. then if by some miracle that does happen wales would be on a high and could beat whoever they played in the quarters, even if they come second in the group and play aus, if wales can play through the forwards they can beat aus.

i understand people will say i am being biased but basically i am saying ANYTHING can happen once into the knockout stages or at a world cup, who knows scotland could win their group? argentina could comes second and england could be on the plane home???

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Post by Pal Joey Sun 12 Jun 2011, 12:26 pm

I have a feeling Australia will lose their match against Ireland at Eden Park.

I can just see the crowd getting behind Ireland - and the Kiwis lapping it up when Australia get caught off guard. It will be a cracker of a match no doubt!

(Hope I'm wrong though and Australia get off to a flying start, nullify the crowd - and go on to a convincing win.)

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Post by rodders Sun 12 Jun 2011, 12:45 pm

What odds on Ireland beating Australia but losing to Italy?!
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Post by boomeranga Sun 12 Jun 2011, 1:28 pm

I expect England will do well because they have a pretty good team and deal with the tournament well. Ireland should go well, but they have to figure out how to reproduce the good bits more often. France to go out in the quarters this time as they just don't seem to have it together, nor do they seems as dangerous as in the past, especially without some of the ones he has left out. Wales and Scotland to do it tough in difficult groups. Italy out in the group.

If the Boks get there with Broussow and Smith playing well, I think they will take it out. The train-on group they just named is strong and highlights the talent they have. They love the WC, will be less fearful of the location than any other visiting side, and aren't coming in with the usual level of expectation on them. They have Divvy which is a blow, but lots of on field leadership could help offset that.

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Post by 21st Century Schizoid Man Sun 12 Jun 2011, 1:42 pm

stevetynant,

you are referring to Ruraidh Jackson at FH for Scotland I presume - as opposed to Hodge(no idea who that is - Duncan Hodge who retired years ago?) ? Jackson is a good player and gets the line moving, can take and make tackles and is fairly swift across the ground. His kicking can be somewhat wayward but with Chris Paterson in the side we have the best kicker around.
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Post by Feckless Rogue Sun 12 Jun 2011, 3:01 pm

England were a 2nd seed but they've been lucky to get a group in which they are the top ranked team. They also have a draw which means they avoid South Africa, New Zealand and Ireland until the final. These are three teams they'd like to avoid. They should beat France in the quarters and will fancy themselves against Australia (although I think Australia would win). They'll probably go further than any other European team. A semi or a final is doable. They won't beat New Zealand or South Africa if they meet them. I agree that in 4 years they'll be a better team.

I don't think Ireland will repeat the nightmare of '07. Our squad is stronger now. Due to the draw though, it'll be similar to '03. We'll do the minimum expected. Lose narrowly to Australia. Qualify for the quarters but immediately bump into South Africa and we'll be on the plane home.

The French head coach is a lunatic. He's not bringing Poitrenaud to the World Cup. They still have bags of talent but they're not playing as if they have any belief in what they're doing. They'll lose to New Zealand in the group. And then they meet their bogey team, England, in the quarters. They could beat England in spite of Mad Marc. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Wales have a nightmare group. They'll be involved in some great games with the pacific islanders as usual. This time I think they'll overcome them and finish 2nd in the group. However, like Ireland, they'll immediately bump into a big SANZAR team, Australia, and will be on the plane home.

Italy are really up against it with Australia and Ireland in their group. They do often trouble Ireland, but they've yet to beat us in the 6 Nations. This year they came closer than ever. I think they'll put up a strong fight against Ireland but will lose. Australia will beat them to.

Scotland will expect to beat Argentina after beating them twice recently. But the Puma's are always better in World Cups. Not sure how that will go. We know from this years 6 Nations that Scotland can trouble England, especially at the breakdown. England will be favourites but not by much. Scotland could finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Whether they meet New Zeland or France, I don't think they'll go further than the quarters.

I think it'll be a New Zeland v Australia final. England will be the best European performer with a semi final appearance.
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Post by robbo277 Sun 12 Jun 2011, 3:06 pm

The positive thing from an England perspective is that, if groups go to form, the three teams that beat us this season (New Zealand, South Africa and Ireland) will all be on the other side of the bracket. This doesn't guarantee us a final appearence by any means, but I would be happier playing France and Australia than Ireland and South Africa.

However, as has been said World Cups rarely go to form. It would take a remarkable coming of age for this England team. We certainly aren't favourites, but I would refuse to rule us out.

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Post by Pot Hale Sun 12 Jun 2011, 5:07 pm

If Pools A, B and D go according to predictions with NZ, Eng and SA coming out on top but Ireland happen to win Group C, it would make for an interesting RWC because it would set Australia up having to meet SA in the quarters, with the winners against NZ in the semis. Meanwhile the Northern route - Ireland v Wales, Eng v France with a very tempting Eng v Irl in the semis would set up a great final.

The Australia v Ireland game is pivotal to making this RWC interesting as Argentina did last time in disrupting the Big 5 hegemony.
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Post by Shifty Sun 12 Jun 2011, 5:21 pm

If Ireland beat Australia and Wales qualify behind South Africa, having the Ireland V Wales quarter will be interesting. As long as Wales have a Scottish linesman and a Welsh ball boy we will be fine!
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Post by Feckless Rogue Sun 12 Jun 2011, 5:55 pm

It would be very interesting if that happened. On neutral ground any of Wales, Ireland, England and France could beat each other and reach the final. And on the other side South Africa or Australia would be more capable of beating New Zealand than any of the European sides. No matter what way you look at it though, I still think New Zealand are big favourites.
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Post by dubh_linn Sun 12 Jun 2011, 6:11 pm

Risca Rev wrote:Italy won't get out of the group. Scotland and England will, as will Ireland.

Quarter 1 England v France
2 Australia v Wales
3 NZ v Scotland
4 SA v Ireland

Semi 1 England v Australia
2 NZ v SA

Final England v NZ

Winner NZ.

That's how it will map out for me.

England have quite a favourable run. They know they can beat France and Australia too which helps. I probably wouldn't be too surprised if Ireland beat SA though, but then they'd be on hiding to nothing by getting to the semi final then anyway.

Risca your version could well happen but this is my take on how it may unfold....

Pool A
winner - NZ
runner up - Fra

Fairly straight forward NZ very powerful side not too may problems going through, France scrape through despite their coach's craziness.


Pool B
winner - Eng
runner up - Arg

England should be too strong for the rest of the group and I think Argentina will prove (just) too difficult for scortland and end up with the runner up position.

Pool C
winner - Ire
runner up - Aus

key match Ire to beat Aus (narrowly), after such a poor world cup (last time) the players will be extremely motivated and will be underdogs against Australia (which normally suits us).

Pool D
winner - SA
runner up - Wal

Farly straightforward SA too strong for the rest, wales doing just enough to get through.

Quarters
NZ v Arg
NZ too strong for Arg

Eng v Fra
England to edge tight contest (they are more consistent at world cups-3 finals)

Ire v Wal
Ireland should win this but not by much

Sa v Aus
Sa will have too much power for the aussies, they will attack aus set piece and make life v. difficult for quade cooper and co.

Semis

NZ v Eng
NZ should have enough (margin is debateable)

Ire v SA
SA too strong for Ireland (SA by about 7 points)

Final
NZ v SA

Winners SA

NZ will be under immense pressure on home soil they will be expected to win every match by a landslide, anything else will provoke a lot of criticism.

NZ have some great players but dont play enough knock out rugby when things are going well they look great but the SA side seem to have a better mentality for the really bigh games.

Last chance for some senior springboks like matfield to grab some silverware i back him too inspire the boks to victory.

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Post by Cymroglan Sun 12 Jun 2011, 6:19 pm

I think that France will be the strongest NH side they should never be underestimated.

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Post by Feckless Rogue Sun 12 Jun 2011, 6:20 pm

You got the semi final draw wrong there dubh linn. If the groups and quarters go the way you predict then the semi's will be Ireland v England and New Zealand v South Africa.

I would have thought New Zealand and South Africa were the top two seeds when the draw was made, so if they win their groups they really shouldn't be meeting till the final. But for some reason they're due to meet in the semi's.
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Post by mrsuperclear Sun 12 Jun 2011, 6:24 pm

Dubh Linn

In your scenario the semi's would be Ireland v England and SA v NZ. It's very tempting to make a favourable semi final outcome in that scenario isn't it? I would agree with you Cymroglan, but the problem is that their coach is a flipping lunatic. Someone already mentioned that he's leaving Poitreneud at home. That is but one example of his complete insanity. Added to that, they're likely to face England in the quarters and England, seemingly, have their number and are likely to beat them. Certainly possible that France could do England and then Ire/Aus/Wales in the semi's though.

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Post by alcoombe Sun 12 Jun 2011, 6:32 pm

Ireland are a very good side, but can't see them beating Australia. They haven't done so since 2006 and haven't done so away from home since 1979. Plus, I'd argue that Australia are a better side than they were a few years ago, but Ireland haven't made a similar progression overall.

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Post by mrsuperclear Sun 12 Jun 2011, 6:44 pm

I think we're certainly capable of beating Australia on neutral grounds but, at the same time, I think I and every other Irishman will acknowledge that Australia would be favourites. I don't know if I'd say we haven't made as much progression as Australia since 2006. In the autumn of 2006 we were certainly very good when we beat Australia and hammered SA. Our success was built on sand though. Once one player got injured or was out of form that was it and 2007 showed that when several players were completely out of form. I'd still be very worried if POC, BOD or Mike Ross got injured but we have plenty of depth in other positions and that wasn't the case four years ago. Australia sorted out their scrum a year ago but have shown that without their main props, it's still their achilles heel. While I stated that Australia will be favourites, I don't think they'll be favourites by much. They managed to beat what was a third strength Irish side in many positions (our backrow in that match was Niall Ronan, Jennings and Chris Henry with Ruddock coming off the bench) over the summer by a whopping 7 points. In saying that though, they're certainly capable of showing up, thrashing us like they did France, and going on to win the whole thing. Either way, I can't wait till the world cup begins.

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Post by Taylorman Sun 12 Jun 2011, 6:51 pm

dubh...lin
"NZ have some great players but dont play enough knock out rugby when things are going well "

Where does this keep coming from?

When else do England or the NH play knock out rugby? and why does this favour SA who I assume also lack knock out rugby. Not a lot of reasoning there.

If you mean Heineken cup or one of those- that aint international rugby- nor is the 6N knockout.

We play the s15 and the ITM which is pool play then knockout. The world cup is pool play then knock out. Our Juniors- currently unbeaten- play pool play then knockout, as did our women.

Other than our world cup results, at international level we do better than most at this format.


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Post by dubh_linn Sun 12 Jun 2011, 7:13 pm

Feckless Rogue wrote:You got the semi final draw wrong there dubh linn. If the groups and quarters go the way you predict then the semi's will be Ireland v England and New Zealand v South Africa.

I would have thought New Zealand and South Africa were the top two seeds when the draw was made, so if they win their groups they really shouldn't be meeting till the final. But for some reason they're due to meet in the semi's.
Doh

Feckless

thanks for the correction...mind you i ilike the sound of an Ire v Eng semi final...that would be great!

and I agee with you about the seeding allowing SA to meet NZ in semis...but I suppose that gives NH sides a better chance with one of them being knocked out before the final!

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Post by stevetynant Sun 12 Jun 2011, 7:24 pm

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:stevetynant,

you are referring to Ruraidh Jackson at FH for Scotland I presume - as opposed to Hodge(no idea who that is - Duncan Hodge who retired years ago?) ? Jackson is a good player and gets the line moving, can take and make tackles and is fairly swift across the ground. His kicking can be somewhat wayward but with Chris Paterson in the side we have the best kicker around.

Mr Schitzoid - I'm not talking about Jackson or Duncan Hodge - I'm sure the young lad- he's only 19 if I remeber plays for Glasgow and has been a match winner when I've seen him play down here in Wales (who isn't though at the moment) - he's short and squat and kicks the ball a mile - I'm sure its Hodge - I'll do some googling and get back.

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Post by stevetynant Sun 12 Jun 2011, 7:26 pm

Here he is - Duncan Weir not Hodge - my apologies

http://www.glasgowwarriors.com/

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