The Covid-19 serious chat thread

[RDW]

First topic message reminder :

A thread set up to house the more serious chat relating to the global pandemic.

Nothing has changed in what we expect from discussions on here though:

- Please treat each other with respect
- Avoid hyperbole and fake news
- This thread shouldn't be used for a political soapbox, but political discussion will likely happen. See point 1!

A reminder that we have a community thread here for people to vent, look for help and all round support each other. https://www.606v2.com/t69506-the-covid-19-community-thread#3896653

[Soul Requiem]

An 80% increase in deaths is shocking and unacceptable, it was more to highlight that the fear over care home deaths hasn't come to fruition quite yet which is one positive in a storm of hell. Their were fears that deaths in the community could be accounting for as many as 60% of overall Covid deaths which would have been even more catastrophic. I'd also suggest it shows that as many people as possible are being given a fighting chance of pulling through.

Hospital admissions are down massively compared to pre pandemic levels which is a double edged sword, a lot of very unwell people are avoiding hospital thinking it's the right thing to and are paying with their lives but also the number of needless visits are down. I myself have very mild asthma and am supposed to take an inhaler daily so have avoided collecting it knowing it won't have a great effect on my health but can imagine that those in serious need are doing the same too.

I'd say the main point I was trying to make but didn't convey very well is that the system is by and large working as it needs to with regards to Covid-19 but appears to be failing outside of that through no fault of it. I don't think the government are getting that point across well enough at the moment, understandably the briefings are Pandemic focused but need to ensure that those with chronic illness are being adequately advised and treated. I know for instance that my GP is routinely ringing up any patients with chronic illness and advising them over the phone, not sure if that is being replicated throughout the UK?

[navyblueshorts]

In other news at least 128 invented twitter accounts were set up pretending to be actual NHS staff (and in some cases using pictures of actual staff) to apparently either push certain ideas (herd immunity, NHS has enough PPE etc) or at best just 'test the waters'. The DHSC deny that it has anything to do with them, although the source of the twitter accounts apparently has links.  
DHSC??? Forgive me being dense this morning but just what /who is that?

Oh and the order for Turkish PPE that was announced on Saturday wasn't placed until Sunday and will take several days to fulfill

FFS

FFS indeed.

I heard that on the tellybox this morning the ONS (Office of National Statistics)have published figures saying that over the last five years the week ending Good Friday/ 10th April had an average of just over 10, 000 deaths registered. This year on 10th April the figure was over 18 000.  To my rudimentary maths mind that is an increase of 80%.

Yes, but where does it say those extra are all Covid-19-related?

I'd imagine nowhere seeing as it's impossible to prove. But much to be a statistic anomaly though, don't you think?

Don't get your knickers in a twist! You can't resist, can you? Anyway, when I posted this, I couldn't find any data easily. It's all over the front of the BBC news web site now. Read it?

Off topic, look after yourself and yours in Manila.

[Pr4wn]

In other news at least 128 invented twitter accounts were set up pretending to be actual NHS staff (and in some cases using pictures of actual staff) to apparently either push certain ideas (herd immunity, NHS has enough PPE etc) or at best just 'test the waters'. The DHSC deny that it has anything to do with them, although the source of the twitter accounts apparently has links.  
DHSC??? Forgive me being dense this morning but just what /who is that?

Oh and the order for Turkish PPE that was announced on Saturday wasn't placed until Sunday and will take several days to fulfill

FFS

FFS indeed.

I heard that on the tellybox this morning the ONS (Office of National Statistics)have published figures saying that over the last five years the week ending Good Friday/ 10th April had an average of just over 10, 000 deaths registered. This year on 10th April the figure was over 18 000.  To my rudimentary maths mind that is an increase of 80%.

Yes, but where does it say those extra are all Covid-19-related?

I'd imagine nowhere seeing as it's impossible to prove. But much to be a statistic anomaly though, don't you think?

Don't get your knickers in a twist! You can't resist, can you? Anyway, when I posted this, I couldn't find any data easily. It's all over the front of the BBC news web site now. Read it?

Off topic, look after yourself and yours in Manila.

Ha! This wasn't intended to be snide at all. But thanks, things are getting pretty hairy here. One of the very few times when I've wanted to be back in the UK.

[123456789.]

I suppose, and I'm hypothesising a bit here the issue with hospitals and the health service may be a social phenomena as well as a capacity one. In the last decade or so in this country we've been trying to overcome two groups of people with regard to the NHS; the ones who use A&E like a personal Doctor and the ones who refuse to get health issues checked out. The former may have been struck by a pang of conscience or they may, as likely hypochondriacs, have figured the risk of going may outweigh the risk of not going. The latter group may have been buoyed by the martial rhetoric emanating from all corners - 'Keep Calm and Carry On', 'England expects'. In that regard you'll probably have people who have found odd lumps and bumps using this as an excuse not to go. Or people with mental health problems who have been given the perfect excuse not to confront them. Then there's also the simple facts of capacity, with a lot of ambulance call outs there are minutes in it between life and death. Now there's more people falling ill then ambulance call outs are probably taking longer and the degree of care they get when and if they arrive at hospital is probably not the same as in usual times. This is not a criticism of the NHS, or indeed the government, it is a tragic consequence of this dreadful situation.

[123456789.]

In other news Novak Djokovic and his wife have come out as conspiracy theorists with his wife sharing a video discussing links between 5G and Coronavirus, and Novak Djokovic saying that personally he is against vaccination. I've long felt this to be the major problem with social media. It allows anyone a platform on any topic they so choose. Whereas prior to the internet the platforms for publication were through traditional media channels. At that point editors, owners, charities and so forth effectively acted as gatekeepers. Now, arguably, the greatest tennis player of all time can use the enormous platform garnered through hitting a ball with a bat to promote pretty dangerous theories.

[Soul Requiem]

In other news Novak Djokovic and his wife have come out as conspiracy theorists with his wife sharing a video discussing links between 5G and Coronavirus, and Novak Djokovic saying that personally he is against vaccination. I've long felt this to be the major problem with social media. It allows anyone a platform on any topic they so choose. Whereas prior to the internet the platforms for publication were through traditional media channels. At that point editors, owners, charities and so forth effectively acted as gatekeepers. Now, arguably, the greatest tennis player of all time can use the enormous platform garnered through hitting a ball with a bat to promote pretty dangerous theories.

I've long disliked Djokovic and this solidifies my opinion on him, unlike Federer and Murray he appears so out of touch with reality. I'm assuming his anti vax attitude goes hand in hand with his veganism.

[123456789.]

I’m not sure there’s a huge correlation between anti-vaxxers and Veganism but I’m willing to be proved wrong on that. Although he’s hardly endeared himself to me with this. I can’t stand it when sports people and famous people feel their exalted position in their own field gives them a right to preach pseudo-science. I suppose it’s a freedom of speech thing to an extent. It’s also true that when the vaccine comes, which it surely will, we will celebrities to play their part in ensuring it’s taken as widely as possible.

[Pr4wn]

In other news Novak Djokovic and his wife have come out as conspiracy theorists with his wife sharing a video discussing links between 5G and Coronavirus, and Novak Djokovic saying that personally he is against vaccination. I've long felt this to be the major problem with social media. It allows anyone a platform on any topic they so choose. Whereas prior to the internet the platforms for publication were through traditional media channels. At that point editors, owners, charities and so forth effectively acted as gatekeepers. Now, arguably, the greatest tennis player of all time can use the enormous platform garnered through hitting a ball with a bat to promote pretty dangerous theories.

I've long disliked Djokovic and this solidifies my opinion on him, unlike Federer and Murray he appears so out of touch with reality. I'm assuming his anti vax attitude goes hand in hand with his veganism.

What a strange post.

[guildfordbat]

Being reported that Boris is due to talk to Trump later today.

Even though I like Boris more than most here and consider he's a motivating speaker, I'm not so sure about that. Feel he should be addressing the British public before the USA President.

[123456789.]

The official death toll today was 828 which is really disappointing, it seemed over the weekend that those numbers were coming down. It's worth considering that there tends to be higher numbers in the middle of the week as they catch up on a backlog over the weekend, even still the numbers today are higher than they've been any other tuesday and this week's pattern seems to be following the worst week's quite closely. Even more worryingly CNN are reporting that the death toll in the UK is likely to be 40% higher than official government figures once lags and care homes are taken into account. If, it's a big if admittedly, that's the case generally speaking the actual numbers in total are around 25,000.
As far as Boris Johnson talking to Trump is concerned. As much as I dislike both of them, Johnson is the Prime Minister and Trump is the President. It is right that they are comparing notes, ideas and strategies. If it was Cameron or Brown talking to Obama it would not be much of a story. The fact that Trump is probably phoning to ask how Johnson stopped having Coronavirus so he can tell people how they can stop having it too is sort of by-the-by. Johnson has already done an address to the nation. From a political perspective he hasn't had a great weekend. The last polls showed the government still enjoyed widespread support for their strategy, but it was falling and that was before Sunday's report. Johnson has just been very ill and if he comes out giving a flat or uninspiring speech it could damage him from a political standpoint. It's not a good look for a national leader to look weak at a time of crisis.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Trump / Johnson, more like persuading Johnson to open up the economy to he can say he is not alone .

Johnson should be talking to the European heads of state to co-ordinate what is happening and what is to happen, Trump is deliberately putting politics before people, but whats new there.

[JuliusHMarx]

Human trials on a vaccine starting this week in the UK. That is extraordinarily quick work. Let's hope for good results.

[123456789.]

Fingers crossed it works and we can all move past this soon and get back to xenophobic whinging about the Lions tour. With the positive results emanating from the post-infection treatments it might be that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

[Samo]

Human trials on a vaccine starting this week in the UK. That is extraordinarily quick work. Let's hope for good results.

You’d think because its similar to the flu they’ve got a basic idea of how it works. From what I’ve heard if it all goes perfectly the best-case scenario we could have millions of does by Autumn.

[123456789.]

On the downside it's a Coronavirus that causes the cold and they've never found a vaccine for that yet. The Professor in charge of it seems supremely confident though which can only be a good thing.

[Soul Requiem]

On the downside it's a Coronavirus that causes the cold and they've never found a vaccine for that yet. The Professor in charge of it seems supremely confident though which can only be a good thing.

The common cold is a multitude of viruses, the majority of which are Rhinoviruses as opposed to Coronaviruses. The fact there isn't one single cause (well over 200 different causes) is the main reason a vaccine hasn't been developed, factor in also that it is very very rarely life threatening.

[123456789.]

On the downside it's a Coronavirus that causes the cold and they've never found a vaccine for that yet. The Professor in charge of it seems supremely confident though which can only be a good thing.

The common cold is a multitude of viruses, the majority of which are Rhinoviruses as opposed to Coronaviruses. The fact there isn't one single cause (well over 200 different causes) is the main reason a vaccine hasn't been developed, factor in also that it is very very rarely life threatening.

Ah okay, I didn't know that, cheers.

[Soul Requiem]

On the downside it's a Coronavirus that causes the cold and they've never found a vaccine for that yet. The Professor in charge of it seems supremely confident though which can only be a good thing.

The common cold is a multitude of viruses, the majority of which are Rhinoviruses as opposed to Coronaviruses. The fact there isn't one single cause (well over 200 different causes) is the main reason a vaccine hasn't been developed, factor in also that it is very very rarely life threatening.

Ah okay, I didn't know that, cheers.

However neither MERS-CoV or SARS-CoV-1 had vaccinations I believe but again the necessity wasn't there.

[123456789.]

From what I've read on MERS and SARS the disease came and went before a vaccine could possibly be created. Primarily because they killed their hosts. It also probably makes a huge difference that Covid-19 has made it to North America and Europe. I think they've used the initial work done on vaccinations for those diseases to expedite the vaccination process.

[guildfordbat]

Good debut performance by Starmer at PMQs. Far less so by Raab. His ''we followed the science'' soundbite just doesn't cut it in trying to excuse operational delays.

[BamBam]

I'm shocked that a man who doesn't know why the Dover-Calais crossing is important to trade with Europe wouldn't perform well in PMQs

[123456789.]

Barry Gardiner, who is hardly a big beast, claims the British Government was told an urgent lockdown was necessary on the 26th February. Now going on the 26th February would have probably been too early given Italy didn't even lockdown until the 9th March. However, according to the Times, they were told on the 24th January that a lockdown was a possibility and, according to Gardiner, the government was told on the 26th February that it was at least a probability. So why on earth did the government not have plans in place for the job schemes before that was even a possibility?

[Soul Requiem]

From what I've read on MERS and SARS the disease came and went before a vaccine could possibly be created. Primarily because they killed their hosts. It also probably makes a huge difference that Covid-19 has made it to  North America and Europe. I think they've used the initial work done on vaccinations for those diseases to expedite the vaccination process.

MERS is still knocking about but as you rightly say it kills 35% of those infected so the R0 is pretty small.

[123456789.]

FT are saying that the actual death rate is 41,000 once lags and care homes are taken into account. Obviously if that is the case that is horrific. However if that is the case it is likely that the situation is similarly murky in other countries. France perhaps is the outlier in that as they have been including care homes in their statistics. If there can be an upside it would also suggest that the disease has spread further through the population than we thought. If the death rate is 1% then that would suggest there have been 4.1 million cases in the UK. So more people have immunity than we thought.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

In more bad news the Chinese have found new mutations.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-more-than-30-strains-say-scientists-in-china-11976380

I'm not sure there's any good news today other than we're a day closer to the end of this thing.

[123456789.]

There is some good news, antibody studies in Helsinki and LA have shown a death rate of just 0.18% overall. In Gangelt in Germany it's showing 0.36%. The first two figures translate to roughly one death in 500 people. However it's worth pointing out that that would indicate roughly half of the city of New York has already had the virus.

[JuliusHMarx]

In more bad news the Chinese have found new mutations.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-more-than-30-strains-say-scientists-in-china-11976380

Surely they mean they've created some new mutations....

[123456789.]

Government approval fell by 10 points over the weekend. The data collecting began on the Friday and ended on the Sunday. It will be interesting to see the state of play at the end of the week given that things haven't been going great for the government this week. If it is true that we have passed the peak it may be that the government can relax on the basis that this won't be the knockout blow they perhaps feared. They are still miles ahead of where they were even prior to the election on that score.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

In more bad news the Chinese have found new mutations.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-more-than-30-strains-say-scientists-in-china-11976380

Surely they mean they've created some new mutations....

JuliusMarx, have you been listening to that geriatric idiot over the water again?

[JuliusHMarx]

In more bad news the Chinese have found new mutations.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-more-than-30-strains-say-scientists-in-china-11976380

Surely they mean they've created some new mutations....

JuliusMarx, have you been listening to that geriatric idiot over the water again?

You left out an H. Never mind, leave it out and put in a windshield wiper instead.

[navyblueshorts]

In more bad news the Chinese have found new mutations.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-more-than-30-strains-say-scientists-in-china-11976380

I'm not sure there's any good news today other than we're a day closer to the end of this thing.

Not good, if confirmed. One of the reasons xoonotic transfers are a real bad idea - a whole new host system to interact with and drive change. Interesting point re. virulence of strains seen in Europe cf. other places.

[Soul Requiem]

Donald Trump

[lostinwales]

Donald Trump

What does he have to do to get booted out? It is just incredible

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Trump, perhaps he should show some leadership and volunteer to have disinfectant injected into him. He is after all super fit and with the body of a much younger man.

[navyblueshorts]

Donald Trump

What does he have to do to get booted out? It is just incredible

Keep fingers crossed for November, assuming election happens.

Want a laugh? Check out:

[navyblueshorts]

In more bad news the Chinese have found new mutations.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-more-than-30-strains-say-scientists-in-china-11976380

I'm not sure there's any good news today other than we're a day closer to the end of this thing.

Not good, if confirmed. One of the reasons xoonotic transfers are a real bad idea - a whole new host system to interact with and drive change. Interesting point re. virulence of strains seen in Europe cf. other places.

If anyone wants to read this study, see below:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v2

It's in pre-print format, so not the easiest read!

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Absolutely Brilliant Navy.....

They can even sing.

[BamBam]

Trump, perhaps he should show some leadership and volunteer to have disinfectant injected into him. He is after all super fit and with the body of a much younger man.

We sure are lucky that our PM has agreed a coordinated response with Trump rather than make a "political decision" to work with the EU

[navyblueshorts]

Trump, perhaps he should show some leadership and volunteer to have disinfectant injected into him. He is after all super fit and with the body of a much younger man.

We sure are lucky that our PM has agreed a coordinated response with Trump rather than make a "political decision" to work with the EU

Seriously? You don't think our PM (regardless of whom it is) should speak to the President of the U.S.A. (regardless of whom it is)?? Or is it just that your politics are shining through?

[tigertattie]

I can see Trump losing the next election.

The protesters with their guns saying the virus is a hoax are out on the streets and could fall to the virus.

Now we could have trump supporters dying by lethal injections of toilet duck and Jeyes Fluid.

He's also saying sunlight kills it so dafties will go and lay in the sun for 10 hours and bake themselves to death.

Trump is systematically wiping out his own support!

[BamBam]

Speak to him - sure

Make a big song and dance about how coordinated they are while Trump encourages open rebellion against social distancing and drinking bleach - I'm not so sure

Maybe he should speak to Merkel, seeing as she has a scientific background, and the Germans are on the verge of ending lockdown. Obviously that won't sit well with the 2 world wars and 1 world cup crowd so he won't do it

[jimbopip]

Trump, perhaps he should show some leadership and volunteer to have disinfectant injected into him. He is after all super fit and with the body of a much younger man.

We sure are lucky that our PM has agreed a coordinated response with Trump rather than make a "political decision" to work with the EU

Seriously? You don't think our PM (regardless of whom it is) should speak to the President of the U.S.A. (regardless of whom it is)?? Or is it just that your politics are shining through?

Mr Blueshorts; I often find myself reflecting that as far as language goes meaning is almost entirely dependent on context. I think that BamBam is pointing out that it appears that while the EU was making a serious and sensible move to have a concerted, Europe wide, policy on purchasing, producing and distributing PPE our government felt that if they joined in with that they might be open to criticism of "spent all this time trying to leave us and then come running first time there's a real problem" type. They then decide that it would be sensible for our PM to have a conference call to discuss possible response to covid with the walking Alzheimer's tragedy who is the present sitting tenant in Pennsylvania Avenue.

Other than our PM explaining that the NHS didn't cure him by injecting Dettol into his eyeballs while inserting a sun lamp into his back passage I can't see what might be gained by conference calling the man who thinks covid will be beaten by antibiotics. However, a steady and guaranteed supply of PPE... Big Gee, and Mrs Gee, may have been spared catching Covid and two of his colleagues may still be alive.

I started this out as a jocular response, but you can only joke up to a certain point.

[123456789.]

Boris Johnson suffers from the same problem that has blighted insecure leaders throughout history, generally speaking he doesn't promote the talented people because ultimately they might replace him. If you don't agree with that, that's okay, but ask yourself where all his leadership contenders are now. Rishi Sunak seems to be the exception from that. That means I frequently find myself despairing of the state of our politics when Dominic Raab discovers that the Channel is wet or Priti Patel just announces the biggest number she knows just to show off. However, there is always the sweet release when you wake up in the morning that the most powerful man, not just in America nor even the world but, in fact, the most powerful organism in the known universe has all the mental faculties of a concussed goldfish.

[Duty281]

The problem with Trump being voted out is, if it happens, he'll be replaced by Biden who is even less articulate and has less of a grasp of what is going on.

[lostinwales]

The problem with Trump being voted out is, if it happens, he'll be replaced by Biden who is even less articulate and has less of a grasp of what is going on.

To be honest that doesn't matter if he surrounds himself with smart people and doesn't decide he knows everything already. Limited people who know their limits can work out fine.

[jimbopip]

The problem with Trump being voted out is, if it happens, he'll be replaced by Biden who is even less articulate and has less of a grasp of what is going on.

To be honest that doesn't matter if he surrounds himself with smart people and doesn't decide he knows everything already. Limited people who know their limits can work out fine.

I think we have the new motto for Scottish Rugby right there. Of course it'll need to be in Latin, just to show how smart we really are.

[123456789.]

I agree that Biden is not perfect but he isn't a megalomaniac and he will surround himself with sensible human beings rather than the clinically insane. I fear that this election will finish with the unedifying spectacle of a zoom debate between two men in their mid-to-late 70s trying to figure out how their computers work. Biden's blunders tend to be less potentially destructive. Mixing up his wife and sister will be uncomfortable occurrence if it happens frequently. But as she is past reproductive age it seems unlikely that there will be any catastrophic consequences for humanity whatever happens. However Trump's ideas are genuinely dangerous. Injecting disinfectant is the tip of the iceberg.
To boil it down to the most childish analysis Biden seems to be a good man where Trump is a bad one. Neither seems to be fully in control of their cognitive faculties and both seem pretty useless. Ultimately Biden seems to be a better man and if I were an American that would be enough for me.

[Duty281]

Biden seems to be a good man

Oh my goodness.

[BamBam]

Biden seems to be a good man

Oh my goodness.

Mmmm tasty Donald boots, slurp slurp

[Duty281]

The problem with Trump being voted out is, if it happens, he'll be replaced by Biden who is even less articulate and has less of a grasp of what is going on.

To be honest that doesn't matter if he surrounds himself with smart people and doesn't decide he knows everything already. Limited people who know their limits can work out fine.

Pretty big if, though. President Biden would have just as many gaffes when giving speeches as Bush/Trump.

[Soul Requiem]

The problem with Trump being voted out is, if it happens, he'll be replaced by Biden who is even less articulate and has less of a grasp of what is going on.

To be honest I reckon Biden realises that himself so will just be used as an empty vessel by the Democrats, Trump however seems under the impression he's a higher being.

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