Wales v Scotland 6 Nations Championship Saturday 12 February 2022

Wales v Scotland
6 nations Championship

Principality Stadium
Cardiff

Saturday 12 February
KO 14.15


Well round 2 comes around quickly enough.

On the basis of the first round matches this is a match for Scotland to push on and prove that they are genuine contenders and not just a team that can beat any team on their day. For wales, who did not have such a good start to the tournament, it is a chance to salvage their season and gain some kind of redemption, their fixtures don't get any easier in the next couple of rounds and they may really be up against things if they lose this one.

On paper this could/should be a win for Scotland but we still don't really know how well this team will cope with the mantle of being favourites, especially in a stadium that has been a grave yard for them for a long long time and where we have fallen short on expectations on many a previous visit.

We will certainly see a different Welsh team this weekend as well. They won't have found that performance and result against Ireland, albeit was an extremely professional performance from the men in green, in any shape or form. The players and the public will demand a lot better at home.

So, as usual, another intriguing encounter coming up, which may well define the seasons of both teams.

I think we will see a Scotland team something like this:


1, Schoeman - probably the better of our 2 LHs against England
2. Turner
3. Fagerson Z
4. Gilchrist
5. Skinner
6. Bradbury
7. Watson
8. Fagerson M
9. Price
10. Russell
11. DVDM
12, Redpath - time to bring him in
13. Harris
14. Graham
15. Hogg


Subs:

Sutherland
McInally
Nel
Gray
Darge
White
Kinghorn
Tuipolotu

Against my better judgement, I am going to this game.

Hope it's a better performance this week. I expect Moriarty to start (despite originally thinking Jenkins and Basham may be better suited to this game) and I suspect Adams won't be 13 either.

It may seem heretical, and it probably is, but might we see Principal Skinner at 6? This would allow Gray-Gilchrist to continue in the second row. Gilchrist put in a monumental defensive shift and although Gray looked slightly short of match fitness he'll be all the better for having played. The Principal is mobile enough to play 6 and it still allows Bradbury to be on the bench as an impact player in the last third. It would also mean Darge could warm the pine too.
Redpath/Johnson/Tuipolotu at 12 is one hell of a dilemma.

If, a very big if, we can defend as well as we did against England and then continue to be as clinical when we have our chances to score then we can win. However, how many times have Scotland travelled hopefully to Cardiff and been sent homeward to think again?

I don't think our current style suits a 2nd row lump at 6. We're all about causing a lot of pain at the breakdown and slowing down ball. Bradbury has got a few good turnovers for Edinburgh this season so does have that part to his game, although not the same pain in the ass levels as Ritchie. I'd go with him.

I don't overly mind who would be on the bench then but I'd not go for Haining as there's no real point of difference there.

jimbopip wrote:It may seem heretical, and it probably is, but might we see Principal Skinner at 6? This would allow Gray-Gilchrist to continue in the second row.

If you do it would give Scotland an advantage. Wales simply have to stop playing with 3 open-sides in the back row. It has been ineffective for years, ever since teams like SA, Ireland and France found big atheletes that play left and right in the back row, and can still compete at the breakdown. I think Ellis Jenkins looks off the pace tbh. I would also have James Ratti on the bench.

Gutted that I can't go (an exam the Tuesday after).

Wales will be better than they were against Ireland because, well, Josh Adams won't be at 13. The defensive line seemed off until Watkin came on and it settled a bit. If he is to convert to 13, Adams needs to get some time there at Cardiff rather than arguably the best side in the world.

We are not as powerful as Ireland though with Bradbury we do have an extra carrier compared to normal. We managed to get some go forward against England in the limited instances we had the ball so hopefully we can repeat the trick.

I will never feel confident about this fixture, not after what happened in 2018.

It would be a huge step forward for Scotland if we could win this one, it's going to test all the theories about this team - if we win I actually might start believing that we are genuine contenders who can win under pressure and expectation to perform.

This is my team:

Sutherland
Turner
Fagerson
Gray
Gilchrist
Bayliss (as close as a direct Ritchie replacement as we have, assuming he is fit)
Watson
Fagerson
Price
Russell
DHVDM
Redpath
Harris
Graham
Hogg

McInally
Schoeman
Nel
Skinner
Bradbury
White
Kinghorn
Tuipulotu

I'd be happy with that team except i don't think Bayliss will be fit

The next like for like replacement would be Christie but it would be a hell of a gsme to start and debut in.

I am still not convinced Bradbury is an 80 minute player at test level though, so starting him would carry some risk

Watching Ireland vs Wales was like watching DiCaprio getting mauled by that bear (it was a real life documentary I think?). Continuing this analogy, i can only assume that Scotland are Tom Hardy and, despite looking like we are the winners for 95% of the film, we're going to end up getting brutally knifed by Leo.

This has happened repeatedly for 2 decades now, we're gonnae lose!

Haud on, Dave Cherry has been called up. Bound tae win now.

Squad update just issued, Bayliss, Ritchie and Ashman all out

Dave Cherry called up to cover Ashman.

FB seems to have fallen a bit further down the pecking order, that one bad throw per match starting to catch up with him.

BigGee wrote:I'd be happy with that team except i don't think Bayliss will be fit

The next like for like replacement would be Christie but it would be a hell of a gsme to start and debut in

I am still not convinced Bradbury is an 80 minute player at test level though, so starting him would carry some risk

You're right BigGee, Bayliss is not joining up with the squad. I've listed out all the options for 6 below:

]Ritchie
Bayliss
Crosbie
Bradbury
Fagerson Jnr
Skinner
Christie
Haining
Cummings (at a push, he has played there for Glasgow...albeit not successfully)

I think Christie is the closest to Ritchie, but a huge ask for your first cap - like you say. Lot's to mull over in the BR, there isn't an obvious selection that jumps out from the remaining players.

MF has been playing well at 6 for the weege. I would play him on the flank and start with Bradbury at 8.
Move MF over to 8 around 60 when Bradbury has run himself into the ground.
Bring on Darge to cause havoc at the breakdown and have the a rampaging run and off load to Mish resulting in the winning try! Easy.

sensisball wrote:MF has been playing well at 6 for the weege. I would play him on the flank and start with Bradbury at 8.
Move MF over to 8 around 60 when Bradbury has run himself into the ground.
Bring on Darge to cause havoc at the breakdown and have the a rampaging run and off load to Mish resulting in the winning try! Easy.

Darge will come into the reckoning more for this weekend I think, without Ritchie we don't have the flexibility within the starting XV to cover 7.

This is one of those game's tha+++++++++++++++++t neither team can afford to loose. Wales need the win (1) they are at home and they need to prove that last weeks performance against a full Ireland team was a blip in their performance. after all they are remasining champions.

Scotland need the win to get rid of the welsh hoodoo, like they did at twickers last year.

majesticimperialman wrote:This is one of those game's tha+++++++++++++++++t neither team can afford to loose. Wales need the win (1) they are at home and they need to prove that last weeks performance against a full Ireland team was a blip in their performance. after all they are remasining champions.

Scotland need the win to get rid of the welsh hoodoo, like they did at twickers last year.

I know I'm hardly one to talk, but that's some impressive typos!

IS anyone else nervous that Covid is still going to have a say? I'm guessing the players weren't allowed to go for a night out in town after the game but they were still all mingling with friends and family afterwards. Zander Fagerson said in an interview he was meeting up with his family the next day, so they're not in much of a bubble.

Like most of the people in the UK they've probably all had covid a few times but there's still a large number of cases going around.

Would be a complete nightmare if there was an outbreak in any of the squads!

I'm assuming that Bradbury will slot into 6 as he's the next cab off the rank.

What I'm also hoping is that Toonie won't be able to resist having Darge on the subs bench. I would absolutely love to see what he could do with Watson in the last 20 minutes. They'd absolutely destroy at the breakdown.

Do Wales have any more injuries after last week? Surely not?? Are any of the current fellers receiving treatment likely to be back?

I usually find this out on WalesOnline's rugby section, but that's been very stressful to read over the past week.

It’s a stressful read all year round, GC!

I don’t think any of the long term injuries are due back this week. And most have been out so long I don’t think it’s right to put them straight in with no club games under their belts.

I don't know why some are bemoaning injuries. They wouldn't come back in and make a difference. The only one we really miss is Ken Owens.

Wrong thread I know, but it's just been announced that Wales are playing 3 tests vs Springboks in SA in the summer!  Doesn't get any easier

I did one of those 'pick you team v Scotland ' things the other day on BBC and this is what I think I'd go with:

Wyn Jones
Think I'd try starting Roberts or Lake over Elias
Francis
Beard
Rowlands
Moriarty
Basham
Wainwright
Tomos Williams
Biggar
Adams
JD2
Tompkins
LRZ
Liam Williams

Not very exciting I know, with players back to normal positions in the backs. I do worry about JD2 but I think we need to be solid in midfield. If not him then possibly Tompkins at 12 and maybe Watkin at 13 as at least he's a centre (but I'm not a big fan). Adams was badly exposed there last week. Also, in the back row: I know it might look like Dragons bias but I think those 3 are a better balance than when Ellis Jenkins is in with the other 2 Dragons boys. Adds a bit more grunt.

I agree with Mikey. Those due to come back aren't necessarily going to improve things much, apart from Ken Owens. AWJ - yes leadership and work rate, but Rowlands did a lot of good v Ireland too. Faletau - not sure if he's still able to get to the levels of old. Tipuric - Basham seems to be the form 7 anyway. Maybe George north actually to slot in at 13. I guess what it does though is give us better bench options so that we don't have to be bringing on players out of position or praying that someone doesn't get injured.

The Oracle wrote:Wrong thread I know, but it's just been announced that Wales are playing 3 tests vs Springboks in SA in the summer!  Doesn't get any easier

Want to swap tours with Scotland? After a decade or two of one off summer tests vs Aus or SA it would be nice to have a three test tour of SA, Aus or even NZ.

Excited to see what minor adjustments Townsend and coaches make for Saturday. They’ll all know they need to take things up a level and treat this game as a tougher task with it being away in a full stadium they’ve not had any recent success. Winning this one will really set the tone for the remainder of the tournament and setup a triple crown winning opportunity in Dublin if winning the 6N title falls away by then. The run of games is working well for Scotland now but this match has to be won. Scotland probably slight favourites despite playing away but psychologically this is a really tough one for the older players and Hogg.

bsando wrote:

The Oracle wrote:Wrong thread I know, but it's just been announced that Wales are playing 3 tests vs Springboks in SA in the summer!  Doesn't get any easier

Want to swap tours with Scotland? After a decade or two of one off summer tests vs Aus or SA it would be nice to have a three test tour of SA, Aus or even NZ.

Yes, maybe! I know it's not always easy to predict when a team will be rebuilding or transitioning to a new style of play, and also moving to replace the 'old guard'. But in Wales case I think we're in that phase now with a core of senior players in the twilight of their careers, a new-ish coaching team (covid has affected how quickly they have been able to settle IMO) still trying to instill a new stlye of play. So I'm not sure a tour of SA is the best timing! I know they'll say 'you learn more from being trounced than from a big win versus a minnow side' but there's probably somewhere in between that would test us enough but would also allow some fringe players to gain confidence at international level. I can just see us coming out of the summer with lots of players injured and missing the start of the season, new Wales international players low on confidence after a mauling both on and off the pitch, and the regions then struggling again to build any momentum before the next Autumn and 6N series.

God I'm depressing!

I do agree with selecting someone else over Elias, he's third or fourth choice at best. Dewi Lake has always been highly rated but not had a lot of game time. We definitely miss North, he was very good at 13 and I really hope he can return to that form. I wouldn't select JD2 or Watkin, Scott Williams was actually in better form that both... We have a lot of 12's and the only one good enough to switch to 13 is Halaholo in my opinion.

The decision to pick just 4 back-3 players and not more Ospreys' front row forwards is starting to look more silly now. The work Booth has done with the Ospreys front 5 is remarkable.

Wyn Jones
Lake
Francis
Beard
Rowlands
Moriarty
Basham
Wainwright
Tomos Williams
Biggar
Adams
Watkin
Tompkins
LRZ
Liam Williams

That's what I think Pivac will likely do, although I wouldn't be surprised to see Elias remain in either.

George Carlin wrote:Do Wales have any more injuries after last week? Surely not?? Are any of the current fellers receiving treatment likely to be back?

I usually find this out on WalesOnline's rugby section, but that's been very stressful to read over the past week.

Halaholo seems like he will be available this week. Think that's it.

Edit. Seb Davies also missed last weekend and is now fine again.

mikey_dragon wrote:I do agree with selecting someone else over Elias, he's third or fourth choice at best. Dewi Lake has always been highly rated but not had a lot of game time. We definitely miss North, he was very good at 13 and I really hope he can return to that form. I wouldn't select JD2 or Watkin, Scott Williams was actually in better form that both... We have a lot of 12's and the only one good enough to switch to 13 is Halaholo in my opinion.

The decision to pick just 4 back-3 players and not more Ospreys' front row forwards is starting to look more silly now. The work Booth has done with the Ospreys front 5 is remarkable.

Completely forgot about him. Yes, I'd have him back in a flash. I wonder if him and Pivac have a bit of beef? Didn't he leave Scarlets under Pivac and then return when Pivac left for Wales? Or just a coincidence of timings?

Agree that JD2 and Watkin are risks. But more a risk than selecting someone out of position? Maybe! When all fit I think we're fairly decently stocked with North, Scott Williams, Halaholo, Tompkins, JD2 (if he can find some form and pace), etc. But it's getting them fit at the same time that's the issue.

God I am not looking forward to this.

Regardless of form, this match always seems to bring an unwelcome twist for us Scotland fans..

Hope we win, form means we have a good chance, but fully expecting an Alien to eat one of our players with five minutes to go and then Wales to score a try using the Picard manoeuvre.

Wales in Cardiff is nigh on guaranteed a Wales win against Scotland.

We can pretend that injuries/form/the roof will have some impact on the game, but we all know that as soon as Wales and Scotland take the field down in Cardiff there is only going to be one winner and they’ll be in red.

I’d love it to be different, but the only outcome in doubt is how Wales win.  Whether it will be from Scotland shooting ourselves in the foot by giving away a tonne of pens or a string of multi coloured cards, or if Wales will outplay us or fluke themselves to victory.  Regardless of how, clear cut Wales win for me on this one.

It’s a story as old as time.

Not that I am pessimistic or anything, just the history of this fixture is pointing very much in one direction and it’s not an away win.

The thing is, EWT, Wales have always had game changers in the past 20 years or so since Scotland last won here. Shane Williams, George North, a few of the scrum halves, etc. However, this time I feel we are lacking game changers and anyone with that spark to just make things happen. And we haven’t got the aggressive and attritional forward play anymore that we developed under Gatland and that we used to grind out wins (as boring as it was, it was often effective). Plus, Scotland have vastly improved backs and forwards compared to those over the last 20 years. So I think the balance of probabilities and odds has definitely tipped in Scotland’s favour. Passion and atmosphere will only get us so far. I always take the rankings with a pinch of salt, but they do tell us something about the respective teams. And Wales have been down around 8th or 9th for some time now. This could be your year

Oracle! Wash out your coracle.
Wales by 20. At least. We haven't a hope in he'll.

P.S. I was rewatching the classic 34-21 match recently and and was astounded by how much Scotland have progressed in the backs.
Cussiter-Price is close
Parks-Dancer Desperate Dan was outstanding that day but Dancer is in a different class.
Morrison&Lamont - Johnson Harris no real comparison
Evans-Lamont-Patterson or Duhan-Hogg-ADHD Kid
Again no real comparison.
Still Wales by 20.

Lets stop all the niceties now. Wales will win this at a canter. Wayne Pivac is a genius and I have supreme confidence in him. It's brilliant that he has managed to manipulate last weekend's results involving the two teams, to make Scotland heavy favourites. Less pressure on us. The supporters in attendance (such as me) will lower their expectations before they turn up and then be subjected to an absolute masterclass in rugby wizardry. This will then lead to a welcome distraction and they will forget they can't get a pint second half of the game.

Well done Wayne and keep up the good work.

Ah yes, the Principality Stadium's answer to drunkenness - stop serving beer at half time and make it 4% rather than 5%!  Surely everyone will just stockpile it first half and/or smuggle in as much as they can!  Or just turn up even more pi$$ed to try to see themselves through the match!  Like when you're young and can't afford to spend all evening in the pub before the club so get tanked up at home before going out! What could possibly go wrong!

The Oracle wrote:Ah yes, the Principality Stadium's answer to drunkenness - stop serving beer at half time and make it 4% rather than 5%!  Surely everyone will just stockpile it first half and/or smuggle in as much as they can!  Or just turn up even more pi$$ed to try to see themselves through the match!  Like when you're young and can't afford to spend all evening in the pub before the club so get tanked up at home before going out!  What could possibly go wrong!

That would never work for Scotland supporters. Murrayfield's finest urinewater is the only thing that has got me through some of the Scotland 'performances' over the past decade.

Our record against Wales and Ireland is still really bad despite massive improvements elsewhere.

From 2017 onwards we have the following stats vs 6N sides...

England
Played 6 won 3 lost 2 drawn 1
France
Played 8 Won 4 lost 4
Italy
Played 7 won 7 lost 0
Ireland
Played 7 won 1 lost 6
Wales
Played 6 won 2 lost 4

Beating one of Wales or Ireland away in front of their fans would be a big step forward for this side. Let's hope they can do it this season while there is a good balance of experience and youth. In 2-3 years time this side will be completely different and I am not so sure we'll be doing quite as well without Hogg, Russell, Watson, McInally, Harris etc. If they can achieve something special it would really help the young players getting their first caps believe they can push on and be successful too.

bsando wrote:Our record against Wales and Ireland is still really bad despite massive improvements elsewhere.

From 2017 onwards we have the following stats vs 6N sides...

England
Played 6 won 3 lost 2 drawn 1
France
Played 8 Won 4 lost 4
Italy
Played 7 won 7 lost 0
Ireland
Played 7 won 1 lost 6
Wales
Played 6 won 2 lost 4

Beating one of Wales or Ireland away in front of their fans would be a big step forward for this side. Let's hope they can do it this season while there is a good balance of experience and youth. In 2-3 years time this side will be completely different and I am not so sure we'll be doing quite as well without Hogg, Russell, Watson, McInally, Harris etc. If they can achieve something special it would really help the young players getting their first caps believe they can push on and be successful too.

Ooft that's some damming stats. It shows what we already know - Scotland struggle to beat physically imposing, low risk teams that don't make many mistakes. The next step in Townsend's coaching evolution is to work out how to get round that.

RDW wrote:

bsando wrote:Our record against Wales and Ireland is still really bad despite massive improvements elsewhere.

From 2017 onwards we have the following stats vs 6N sides...

England
Played 6 won 3 lost 2 drawn 1
France
Played 8 Won 4 lost 4
Italy
Played 7 won 7 lost 0
Ireland
Played 7 won 1 lost 6
Wales
Played 6 won 2 lost 4

Beating one of Wales or Ireland away in front of their fans would be a big step forward for this side. Let's hope they can do it this season while there is a good balance of experience and youth. In 2-3 years time this side will be completely different and I am not so sure we'll be doing quite as well without Hogg, Russell, Watson, McInally, Harris etc. If they can achieve something special it would really help the young players getting their first caps believe they can push on and be successful too.

Ooft that's some damming stats. It shows what we already know - Scotland struggle to beat physically imposing, low risk teams that don't make many mistakes. The next step in Townsend's coaching evolution is to work out how to get round that.

So....you are saying Scotland beat up the poor, unloved English, but come up a cr@pper against Ireland and Wales. Scotland need to learn to be nice to their southern neighbors.

Doc, as a student said to me when I was teaching SEBD kids, "Not intending any disrespect Sir, but go fecc yourself"

Johnsom, Cummings and Mclean all back to Glasgow for the weekend, so at least one change in the backline.

BigGee wrote:Johnsom, Cummings and Mclean all back to Glasgow for the weekend, so at least one change in the backline.

Surely that means Redpath is starting??

Canni see any other changes to the starting side

Tramptastic wrote:

BigGee wrote:Johnsom, Cummings and Mclean all back to Glasgow for the weekend, so at least one change in the backline.

Surely that means Redpath is starting??

Canni see any other changes to the starting side

Well Tuipoluto could start at 12, but I fancy it will be Redpath as well.

I'd fancy Tuipoluto to stay on the bench, he's a good change of direction to bring on in the 13 channel when/if the game breaks up in the last 20

teams oot:

15. Stuart Hogg - Exeter Chiefs - (Captain) - 89 caps

14. Darcy Graham - Edinburgh Rugby - 23 caps

13. Chris Harris – Gloucester Rugby - 32 caps

12. Sione Tuipulotu - Glasgow Warriors - 2 caps

11. Duhan van der Merwe - Worcester Warriors - 14 caps

10. Finn Russell – Racing 92 - (Vice-Captain) - 59 caps

9. Ali Price – Glasgow Warriors - 47 caps



1. Pierre Schoeman - Edinburgh Rugby - 5 caps

2. Stuart McInally - Edinburgh Rugby - 44 caps

3. WP Nel - Edinburgh Rugby - 44 caps

4. Jonny Gray – Exeter Chiefs – 65 caps

5. Grant Gilchrist - Edinburgh Rugby - (Vice-Captain) - 49 caps

6. Sam Skinner - Exeter Chiefs - 16 caps

7. Hamish Watson - Edinburgh Rugby - 46 caps

8. Matt Fagerson - Glasgow Warriors - 18 caps



Replacements

16. George Turner - Glasgow Warriors - 21 caps

17. Rory Sutherland - Worcester Warriors - 17 caps

18. Zander Fagerson - Glasgow Warriors - 43 caps

19. Magnus Bradbury - Edinburgh Rugby - 15 caps

20. Rory Darge – Glasgow Warriors - Uncapped

21. Ben White - London Irish – 1 cap

22. Blair Kinghorn - Edinburgh Rugby - 28 caps

23. Cameron Redpath - Bath Rugby – 1 cap

Tramptastic wrote:teams oot:

15. Stuart Hogg - Exeter Chiefs - (Captain) - 89 caps

14. Darcy Graham - Edinburgh Rugby - 23 caps

13. Chris Harris – Gloucester Rugby - 32 caps

12. Sione Tuipulotu - Glasgow Warriors - 2 caps

11. Duhan van der Merwe - Worcester Warriors - 14 caps

10. Finn Russell – Racing 92 - (Vice-Captain) - 59 caps

9. Ali Price – Glasgow Warriors - 47 caps



1. Pierre Schoeman - Edinburgh Rugby - 5 caps

2. Stuart McInally - Edinburgh Rugby - 44 caps

3. WP Nel - Edinburgh Rugby - 44 caps

4. Jonny Gray – Exeter Chiefs – 65 caps

5. Grant Gilchrist - Edinburgh Rugby - (Vice-Captain) - 49 caps

6. Sam Skinner - Exeter Chiefs - 16 caps

7. Hamish Watson - Edinburgh Rugby - 46 caps

8. Matt Fagerson - Glasgow Warriors - 18 caps



Replacements

16. George Turner - Glasgow Warriors - 21 caps

17. Rory Sutherland - Worcester Warriors - 17 caps

18. Zander Fagerson - Glasgow Warriors - 43 caps

19. Magnus Bradbury - Edinburgh Rugby - 15 caps

20. Rory Darge – Glasgow Warriors - Uncapped

21. Ben White - London Irish – 1 cap

22. Blair Kinghorn - Edinburgh Rugby - 28 caps

23. Cameron Redpath - Bath Rugby – 1 cap

What is the likely impact of the selection of the props to start/ bench?

I'm looking forward to seeing Darge play, I've heard a lot about him.

It could be horses for courses. It's arguable that the starting front row is a better scrummaging unit (not by much though) whereas the bench front row is more mobile so bring the bench on for the last 20?

The whole bench is very mobile so it might be Toonie is looking for an injection of pace and mobility in the last 20

Wales: Liam Williams, Alex Cuthbert, Owen Watkin, Nick Tompkins, Louis Rees-Zammit; Dan Biggar, Tomos Williams; Wyn Jones, Ryan Elias, Tomas Francis, Will Rowlands, Adam Beard, Taine Basham, Jac Morgan, Ross Moriarty.

Replacements: Dewi Lake, Gareth Thomas, Dillon Lewis, Seb Davies, Aaron Wainwright, Gareth Davies, Callum Sheedy, Jonathan Davies.

I suspect Adams is injured there, otherwise he surely wouldn't be dropped completely. Otherwise the team suggested was bang on.