2024 US Presidential Election

First topic message reminder :

Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

mountain man wrote:By all accounts quite a punchy state of union address by Biden. I didn't watch it just read BBC report.
Seemed more of a campaign speech than anything else?

The old boy managed to get through his address pretty much okay.....Maybe Navy is right to admonish us for asking for the white coats just yet....

I expected "doddering Joe" but he got through a lengthy speech.....A worry for Trump. But then again no doubt Biden is struggling and 8 months is a long time.

We'll see.....But well done sleepy Joe for now...

Have a good weekend folks...

CC poll....

Biden
App.....34
Disapp 56

Rasmusson

App.....42
Disapp.56

Two pollsters........Two completely different results..........A landslide for Trump and a safe hold for Biden...

Very fluid this Election....

Senile vs senile and detranged

So both Biden and Trump officially over the line in terms of securing the delegates necessary to win their respective party nominations.

Good time to look at the state of the race.

RealClearPolitics has Trump ahead by 1.8% in the national polling average, in a simple head to head. This is an improvement for Trump of 8.1% on where he was this time four years ago.

When Kennedy is added to the polls, making it a three way race, Trump's lead extends to 4.3%, a pretty clear indicator that Kennedy is hurting Biden more than Trump. Kennedy's average is currently 15%, but I'd expect this to fall off...unless he gets into the debates, which would be quite something.

The race is currently focused on six key states - Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump is posting clear leads in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, backed up with a solid lead in Michigan and a narrow one in Wisconsin. Biden currently has a narrow lead in Pennsylvania.

This would leave the Electoral College 293-245 in favour of the Republicans.

However, Biden is not yet in proper campaigning mode, and we'll see if the gap closes as he gets on the campaign trail. The main concern from the Democrats perspective is that Trump has shown to be a great campaigner in the closing weeks of the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, and if the same happens again then Biden is surely toast.

As Truss pointed out, the approval ratings are interesting. Biden's net approval on 538 is currently 7% worse than Trump four years ago, while on RCP it's 8% worse. Biden's net approval on RCP is 20% worse than Obama's at the same stage, the last President to win reelection, so we can see the size of the task ahead of Biden. He basically has to hope the dislike of Trump is stronger than the dislike of him.

Just under 8 months to go!

The State of the Union address was just one big lump of campaigning from Biden...

The problem with Biden is they have to keep him hidden......Fallen over at least three times....Can't remember names or dates....

They will go hard on TV ads instead calling Trump a sex pest and con man.....Trump will respond by saying Biden belongs in a home and nothing will be done to address the plight of millions of Americans treading water...

Won't be much different over here......Starmer is an Antisemite.....Sunak hates muslims etc.....You wonder why Galloway types are winning ??

Smart move for Trump would be to pick Haley for the VP slot.....Her admirers and there are many will bet Trump who lives on Coke and burgers won't last and she gets the job.

Haley then can ask for moderates to come together for her new best friend....and we can all sing Kum ba yah.

As for Biden he won't mind too much being behind in the Margin of error....All incumbents get a push at election time when it is time to X the spot.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:....and we can all sing Kum ba yah....

Nearly snorted my coffee over the keyboard....

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The State of the Union address was just one big lump of campaigning from Biden...

The problem with Biden is they have to keep him hidden......Fallen over at least three times....Can't remember names or dates....

They will go hard on TV ads instead calling Trump a sex pest and con man.....Trump will respond by saying Biden belongs in a home and nothing will be done to address the plight of millions of Americans treading water...

Won't be much different over here......Starmer is an Antisemite.....Sunak hates muslims etc.....You wonder why Galloway types are winning ??

Smart move for Trump would be to pick Haley for the VP slot.....Her admirers and there are many will bet Trump who lives on Coke and burgers won't last and she gets the job.

Haley then can ask for moderates to come together for her new best friend....and we can all sing Kum ba yah.

As for Biden he won't mind too much being behind in the Margin of error....All incumbents get a push at election time when it is time to X the spot.

That will be news to his wife and children

Trumpy has got a bit of a money problem..This $460 million bond seems bigger than his piggy bank...

When the Emperor Tiberius inherited the throne off Augustus after being previously kicked out of Rome to the island of Rhodes....A sage observed "There will be heads on the streets as all who return to rule from banishment rule bloodily"..

Trump will be no different....Four years of settling scores.

The monthly Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showing the Kennedy factor; his presence, on the below numbers, allowing Trump to win 29 electoral college votes and extend his advantage in two other states offering a combined 17 electoral college votes.

Trump leads by 5% in Arizona in a simple H2H; extends to 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 7% in Georgia in a simple H2H; stays at 7% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump ties in Michigan in a simple H2H; stays a tie with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 2% in Nevada in a simple H2H; extends to 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 6% in North Carolina in a simple H2H; stays at 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump ties in Pennsylvania in a simple H2H; becomes a 6% lead with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump trails by 1% in Wisconsin in a simple H2H; becomes a 2% lead with Kennedy's inclusion.

But, overall, these numbers are showing a trend back towards Biden from last month's poll, which is good news for him and to be expected after the State of the Union address.

Probably be the most fluid election since Bush v Dukakis in 88........

Dukakis who was asked in a debate by the moderator about the death penalty (He was against it) Would he feel the same if his Wife was sexually assaulted and killed etc ?? Just answered matter of factly when instead he should have had a go at the Moron for asking such a tasteless question.

Never recovered.

Michigan

Trump 51
Biden..46

Not good for Biden..........One poll has Trump up by 10 in Georgia.....

These results would bring Biden down to 274.......with the winner needing 271.......

With other possible states to get Trump over..

Polls are continuing to trend back towards Biden. Trump's average national polling lead on RCP was up at 2%, but is now down to 0.2%, although of course, as we know, he doesn't need to win the popular vote to win the Presidency. That lead does jump up to 1.8% when Kennedy is included.

Kennedy difficult to poll it seems. A couple of national polls putting him at 2/3%, but most putting him in double digits.

Trump still leading comfortably in the polls in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, as well as Florida/Ohio (both of which seem further away from the Democrats than usual), but Biden has the advantage in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Albeit Biden's advantage in Pennsylvania seems down to an outlier poll putting him 10% ahead. Wisconsin very tight. Michigan, Trump has the lead. Michigan might be the state that decides everything.

For now, narrow advantage Trump (293 on the EC), but Biden is the current mover in the polls, and a long way to go. Biden currently dealing with Iran, and Trump dealing with one of his many court cases (if they ever pick a jury).

Would also add, based on early evidence:

Key states where Kennedy is helping Trump = Georgia, Pennsylvania, Florida (? based on a solitary poll), North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada
Key states where Kennedy is helping Biden = Michigan, Wisconsin

Couple of interesting recent polls re. any so-called 'Kennedy Effect' and effects on Biden and Trump. Suggestions are that he's maybe hurting Trump more than Biden.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/election-2024-april/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536

Yes, those two polls are interesting, but they do tend to run against what most polling companies are finding. We'll see if that becomes an established trend. They are also finding quite a high level of Kennedy support.

I take Marist with a pinch of salt, because their polls tend to be much more favourable towards the Democrats than other polls (like Rasmussen with the Republicans). Marist had Biden's net approval at -6, for instance, when the average is -15.

Duty281 wrote:The monthly Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showing the Kennedy factor; his presence, on the below numbers, allowing Trump to win 29 electoral college votes and extend his advantage in two other states offering a combined 17 electoral college votes.

Trump leads by 5% in Arizona in a simple H2H; extends to 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 7% in Georgia in a simple H2H; stays at 7% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump ties in Michigan in a simple H2H; stays a tie with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 2% in Nevada in a simple H2H; extends to 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 6% in North Carolina in a simple H2H; stays at 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump ties in Pennsylvania in a simple H2H; becomes a 6% lead with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump trails by 1% in Wisconsin in a simple H2H; becomes a 2% lead with Kennedy's inclusion.

But, overall, these numbers are showing a trend back towards Biden from last month's poll, which is good news for him and to be expected after the State of the Union address.

This month....

Trump leads by 7% in Arizona in a simple H2H; decreased to a 6% lead with Kennedy's inclusion (no change).
Trump leads by 6% in Georgia in a simple H2H; extends to 8% with Kennedy's inclusion (+1 for Trump).
Trump trails in Michigan by 2% in a simple H2H; trail extends to 3% with Kennedy's inclusion (-3 for Trump).
Trump leads by 8% in Nevada in a simple H2H; extends to 14% (!!!!!) with Kennedy's inclusion (+8 for Trump).
Trump leads by 10% in North Carolina in a simple H2H; stays at 10% with Kennedy's inclusion (+4 for Trump).
Trump leads by 1% in Pennsylvania in a simple H2H; stays a 1% lead with Kennedy's inclusion (-5 for Trump).
Trump leads by 4% in Wisconsin in a simple H2H; decreases to a 3% lead with Kennedy's inclusion (+1 for Trump).

So the polling is a bit wild, fair to say. Bloomberg is reporting it as Biden's polling bump largely vanishing, which is only true if you look at the simple H2Hs. If you look at with Kennedy included, and while he stays in the race you must look at it that way, it's really not bad polling for Biden, with Michigan going blue and Pennsylvania now a lot closer. Trump has extended his advantage, big league, in Nevada, though that's the only real change in his favour.

Trump wins 297-241 on this polling either way, but Biden would only need to flip Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to win 270-268.

Perhaps most concerningly for Biden, most swing state voters polled are pessimistic about the state of the economy, although abortion is becoming a bigger issue and this is one where Biden has the advantage.

Duty281 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:The monthly Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showing the Kennedy factor; his presence, on the below numbers, allowing Trump to win 29 electoral college votes and extend his advantage in two other states offering a combined 17 electoral college votes.

Trump leads by 5% in Arizona in a simple H2H; extends to 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 7% in Georgia in a simple H2H; stays at 7% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump ties in Michigan in a simple H2H; stays a tie with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 2% in Nevada in a simple H2H; extends to 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 6% in North Carolina in a simple H2H; stays at 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump ties in Pennsylvania in a simple H2H; becomes a 6% lead with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump trails by 1% in Wisconsin in a simple H2H; becomes a 2% lead with Kennedy's inclusion.

But, overall, these numbers are showing a trend back towards Biden from last month's poll, which is good news for him and to be expected after the State of the Union address.

This month....

Trump leads by 7% in Arizona in a simple H2H; decreased to a 6% lead with Kennedy's inclusion (no change).
Trump leads by 6% in Georgia in a simple H2H; extends to 8% with Kennedy's inclusion (+1 for Trump).
Trump trails in Michigan by 2% in a simple H2H; trail extends to 3% with Kennedy's inclusion (-3 for Trump).
Trump leads by 8% in Nevada in a simple H2H; extends to 14% (!!!!!) with Kennedy's inclusion (+8 for Trump).
Trump leads by 10% in North Carolina in a simple H2H; stays at 10% with Kennedy's inclusion (+4 for Trump).
Trump leads by 1% in Pennsylvania in a simple H2H; stays a 1% lead with Kennedy's inclusion (-5 for Trump).
Trump leads by 4% in Wisconsin in a simple H2H; decreases to a 3% lead with Kennedy's inclusion (+1 for Trump).

So the polling is a bit wild, fair to say. Bloomberg is reporting it as Biden's polling bump largely vanishing, which is only true if you look at the simple H2Hs. If you look at with Kennedy included, and while he stays in the race you must look at it that way, it's really not bad polling for Biden, with Michigan going blue and Pennsylvania now a lot closer. Trump has extended his advantage, big league, in Nevada, though that's the only real change in his favour.

Trump wins 297-241 on this polling either way, but Biden would only need to flip Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to win 270-268.

Perhaps most concerningly for Biden, most swing state voters polled are pessimistic about the state of the economy, although abortion is becoming a bigger issue and this is one where Biden has the advantage.

Number one issue in the US will always be Healthcare.....62% of bankruptcies in America are due to Health costs.....Why as an outsider looking in I respect your NHS probably more than most Brits.....Though hypocritically we go down the private route..

Huge respect for your Attlee govt of 45 and it's compassionate policies.....Just as FDR will always be my favorite President with the new deal...

The economy and to a lesser extent immigration comes next.......Roe v Wade comes further down the list...

The Hill/Emerson also doing polling in swing states. They've got Trump leading in all 7 of the swing states polled (the same 7 as Bloomberg/Morning Consult), in both basic H2Hs and when Kennedy is included.

Trump's lead is extended in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin when Kennedy is added. Arizona and Michigan remain the same.

Trump would win 312-226 on that polling. Has been a good last week for Trump on the polls.

I love Rasmussen's polls, they're completely unhinged. I don't think they do any actual polling, they just write some numbers down and go with it.

Duty281 wrote:

I love Rasmussen's polls, they're completely unhinged. I don't think they do any actual polling, they just write some numbers down and go with it.

You know where their biases are by the title using "President Trump". I hate to point this out to them, but...

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

I love Rasmussen's polls, they're completely unhinged. I don't think they do any actual polling, they just write some numbers down and go with it.

You know where their biases are by the title using "President Trump". I hate to point this out to them, but...

And the two pictures. Biden looking confused and small. Trump looking tall and Presidential.