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Who will win the NFC South?

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Who will win the NFC South?

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Post by Derbyblue Mon 08 Aug 2011, 12:16 pm

Pretty much what it says in the title which team do you think will win the NFC South?

I’ll probably create a new poll every one or two days moving round all of the NFL’s divisions.

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Post by skins4ever Mon 08 Aug 2011, 12:26 pm

I'm backing the Saints here. Quietly made moves in FA so far to maintain a strong squad and keep a good team chemistry.

Panthers - Rebuilding (again).
Falcons - I think they have gambled on Jones and amalgamating him into their offense may take more than 1 season. If he works out though, they could be the 'new Packers'.
Buccs - Need a few more ingredients before they are serious challengers.

With the right developments, the South could easily be a replica of the East/North divisions. I can see the West being the poor relations for a few years.

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Post by Thomond Mon 08 Aug 2011, 12:29 pm

The saints,they already have a great passing attack and Ingram could help them in the rush.

The Bucs seem committed to do what the Patriots and other teams have done which is building through the draft. It seems a bit odd especially when you have rookie leading the defence. There are plenty of positives for the Bucs. With Bowers and Clayborne aswell as the return of McCoy and co.,they might finally have a good pass rush. The secondary isn't bad, Grimm looked good in place of Jackson as did Biggers and Lewis in place of Talib. I would also have high hopes for Asante and Lynch.


To be honest,the Bucs season could go very well or bad.

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Post by Grizzly Mon 08 Aug 2011, 12:47 pm

I hit the Saints button but I think it'll be close.
Falcs won the div last year and appear no worse off this year, I just like what the Saints did at draft and think they're a side to be onside with this year.
Buccs surprised many last season but will need to improve further to make post season and Panthers are likely to need at least another year to re-build (though I still think they have a decent defence and will keep them in games).
The problem coming from this division in the play offs is that both the Eagles and Packers could easily have better records meaning tough play off road trips to cold places, something Saints avoided duting their entire superbowl season, I wouldn't be looking to the South to provide NFC Champions....

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Post by GB1919 Mon 08 Aug 2011, 2:18 pm

Saints for me too. Solid draft and solid FA to build on what is already a good team.

The Panthers don't stand a chance, too much rebuilding needs to happen first.

The Falcons gave up too much for Jones and I think they really should have done something on defence rather than offence.

The Bucs haven't really done enough in the offseason to justify picking them. The first two rounds of the draft could be very much boom or bust and their FA has been quiet to say the least.

Be interesting to look back on these at the end of the year.

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Post by Grizzly Mon 08 Aug 2011, 2:47 pm

Someone has backed Panthers, could be the first instance of Wumming I can recall in here.....

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Post by GB1919 Mon 08 Aug 2011, 2:51 pm

Or maybe Cam Newton has an account on here.

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Post by CFCNick Mon 08 Aug 2011, 3:43 pm

I've gone ATL

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Post by Grizzly Mon 08 Aug 2011, 4:01 pm

M2M - it's funny with the Falcs because they're not noticably weaker than last season but they've slipped under the radar for this campaign, Gonzo has committed to another year in a final shot at glory.
I wonder whether people are looking at the way the Packers blew them away in the dome so have written them off - they still have a hell of an offensive game, there fewer better QB, WR, TE, RB combos in the league IMO and early opinions on Julio Jones is that the guy is freakishly talented....

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Post by CFCNick Mon 08 Aug 2011, 4:20 pm

I think that performance against the Packers will make them hungry for a playoff win. They remind me of the Packers too. As this time last year they weren't really strong favourites until they beat Philadelphia and Atlanta.

I'm not saying Atlanta wins the Super Bowl but they'll definitely get to the same distance this time around.

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Post by crazy_dave23 Mon 08 Aug 2011, 7:39 pm

I'm the second guy to have gone Atlanta's way.

Think that Julio Jones, whilst not necessarily being amazing himself from day one, will help Roddy White be even more successful.
Ryan is a good QB and can be relied on by the team.

Keeping hold of Brent Grimes was very wise as he was pretty good last year from what I saw.

Saints wise, I'd be putting them in as a wildcard team for the NFC and they will run the Falcons close, but I'm just not sold on them.

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Post by Derbyblue Mon 08 Aug 2011, 9:40 pm

@JennaLaineBucsJennaLaineBucs
@606v2AF I'll have a better indication when I have something on tape from preseason games. If I had to guess - Atlanta.

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Post by Pr4wn Tue 09 Aug 2011, 11:01 am

I've gone with the Saints here. (Sorry for the delay in reply, moving flat and have no internet!)

They have one of the bes defensive lines in the league now, their secondary is looking great, Vilma is one of the top MLBs in the NFL.

On offense, Drew Brees can handle anything, Ingram should provide them with a solid rushing attack. Their receivers are very handy and Jimmy Graham should provide opponents with a hideous matchup problems.

I feel that Atlanta aren't quite there yet. Ryan is good (not great) Roddy Whiet is a stud, but Julio Jones is probably going to take time to adjust to the NFL. Gonzo has lost more than half a yard and Turner can only keep going for so long. His running style is so physical, I'm amazed he hasn't suffered a serious injury in the last couple of years. Their defense is over-hyped. Their line is ok. Abraham won't be able to keep going forever, Babineaux is superb but Peria Jerry hasn't produced anything since he was drafted. Does anyone else think that Ray Edwards is overrated? He produced mediocre sack numbers on one of the best defensive lines ni the NFL. Their secondary is fine but safety is a big question mark for them. Dunta Robinson was paid a stack of money, too and bagged only one interception last season.

Carolina may surprise a few next year. If Newton settles in, they have the pieces to build a nice team. Lots of young talent on both offense and defense.

The Bucs are an interesting one. They are boom or bust as far as I'm concerned. Freeman is a beast and our receivers look great. Williams and Benn have been working hard all summer and Winslow has had his first injury-free offseason. I'm expecting big things from him this year. Blount will take a step back, I think. Team will stack more players in the box to stop him and he is not a threat in the receiving game at all. On defense, our front seven is very young. They have lots of potential but I'm not expecting much from them this season.

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Post by Derbyblue Tue 09 Aug 2011, 11:31 am

From a very confident Falcons fan on twitter: @606v2AF of course its the Falcons. Julio Jones is a game winning addition

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Post by skins4ever Tue 09 Aug 2011, 12:28 pm

But which year will he produce? Most NFL receivers take 1-2 years to really bed in. There have been exceptions, but many college stars struggled and the surprise players have come from unexpected places. I think the Falcons fans are getting into the realms of false confidence, and may end up putting too much pressure on the kid.

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Post by Forward Pass Tue 09 Aug 2011, 2:15 pm

I have gone with the Bucs just a feeling they will improve again this year . Saints will also make play offs
Falcons might make it 3 South teams in post season
Panthers will win more than last year but not many
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Post by Derbyblue Tue 09 Aug 2011, 3:24 pm

I've got no idea when Julio Jones will produce but I think him being present should at least take a small amount of coverage off Roddy White, from what I've heard he's impressing in camp, but just because I have no idea of how Jones will perform I think the Saints will take the division. I like their team and if they run the ball they should be a challenge for all defenses, though they also need to keep their running backs healthy. Buccs have the potential to take the division in a couple of years but I'm not quite sure they'll win this year, the passing game should be as productive as last season if not better, running game may struggle though I've heard good things coming out of the camp about Blount. Panthers may surprise a few people with their improvement on last season, but I think they'll still come 4th in the division. In the future I think this could be a very difficult division to predict.

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Post by Derbyblue Tue 09 Aug 2011, 3:47 pm

Really want to know who voted for the Panthers, can't have been Glasgowhibs who I think is the only member to have said they're a Panthers fan.

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Post by Grizzly Tue 09 Aug 2011, 3:53 pm

Derby - it's a frightening prospect having White, Jones and Gonzo all lining up.
Someone made the point earlier that Turners output should drop soon and they're right, but he's surprisingly healthy for a 'old' RB and misses very few games, could be his years of benchwarming in SD have given him exteded gametime.
But seriously, Ryan, Jones, White, Turner and Gonzo is a serious offence - forget that Gonzo has lost a yard of pace, he still has great hands and fights for yards after completion as well as any TE in the league

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Post by Pr4wn Tue 09 Aug 2011, 4:03 pm

Falcons also got extremely lucky with lack of injuries last season. Compared to the Saints and Bucs, they got away scot free. They don't really have much depth at any position.

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Post by Derbyblue Tue 09 Aug 2011, 4:12 pm

Pr4wn wrote:Falcons also got extremely lucky with lack of injuries last season. Compared to the Saints and Bucs, they got away scot free. They don't really have much depth at any position.
Can easily add Panthers to the list of being hit by injuries.

Grizzly: It's a scary sounding offense, especially if Jones can be implemented effectively straight away, but how much longer can Gonzalez keep performing at his level a TE of his quality will be difficult for them to replace, and their offense doesn't sound quite as scary without one of the best TE's ever.

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Post by Derbyblue Tue 09 Aug 2011, 4:23 pm

skins4ever wrote:But which year will he produce? Most NFL receivers take 1-2 years to really bed in. There have been exceptions, but many college stars struggled and the surprise players have come from unexpected places. I think the Falcons fans are getting into the realms of false confidence, and may end up putting too much pressure on the kid.
From the same guy: @606v2AF He can bed in, with White and a fit Harry Douglas alongside Gonzo, JJ offers us another dimension... the deep threat.

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Post by Grizzly Tue 09 Aug 2011, 4:25 pm

Derby - during his last couple of years with us he was the go-to-guy, he became #1 receiver, his value now is with blocking and 3rd down centre field short completions, with WR of the calibre of White and Jones Gonzo will be used mainly for blocks.
That said, I still think the Saints have a more balanced defence so wil stick with them to nick teh div

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Post by Pr4wn Tue 09 Aug 2011, 4:26 pm

Personally, I'd take the Bucs offense. Freeman is a better QB, Ryan get his stats by making short, safe throws. Mike Williams isn't as good as Roddy White yet, but not many rookies catch 11 touchdowns...

I'd also take Benn over Jones. Benn really came on towards the end of last season and made some huge plays before going down to injury. Bucs coaches are really high on him this season and expect him to produce.

I'd take Winslow over Gonzo too. Kellen Jr is coming off his first camp without knee surgery and he's been making plays already. He's worked with Freeman all summer and is apprently in the best shape of his life. Barring injury, he's going to have a huge season.

I'd have Turner over Blount. Neither can catch, but Turner has the experience.

Our offensive line is also better. Penn is the better LT, Joseph is the better RG, the Falcons lost Harvey Dahl to free agency and Faine is the beter center.

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Post by Grizzly Tue 09 Aug 2011, 5:07 pm

Pr4wn - you can remove the rose tinted glasses anytime you want pal.....

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Post by Derbyblue Tue 09 Aug 2011, 5:26 pm

Grizzly wrote:Derby - during his last couple of years with us he was the go-to-guy, he became #1 receiver, his value now is with blocking and 3rd down centre field short completions, with WR of the calibre of White and Jones Gonzo will be used mainly for blocks.
That said, I still think the Saints have a more balanced defence so wil stick with them to nick teh div
His use for most plays may be to block, and this has showed with his receptions and yards being down last season on 2009 which was down on most of his previous seasons despite 83 receptions (2009), however he's still a receiving threat especially in the red zone, 12 touchdowns in two seasons that's better than Santonio Holmes and Wes Welker (both of whom were included in our Best Wide Receiver in the NFL poll).

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Post by Grizzly Tue 09 Aug 2011, 5:34 pm

Most of them short centre field passes Derby and in 2009 he was still a Chief.

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Post by Thomond Tue 09 Aug 2011, 5:40 pm

Freeman is the better quarterback,he did better last year with 2 rookies and some average wideouts. The Bucs will really miss Cadillac this year who was a good passing threat and running threat

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Post by Derbyblue Tue 09 Aug 2011, 5:47 pm

Grizzly wrote:Most of them short centre field passes Derby and in 2009 he was still a Chief.
Really? NFL.coms player profile has him playing for the Falcons in 2009. Are you saying that just because he can only catch one type of pass he shouldn't be seen as a receiving threat?

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Post by Derbyblue Tue 09 Aug 2011, 5:51 pm

From ESPN's Power Rankings:
Atlanta Falcons: 13-3
New Orleans Saints: 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10-6
Carolina Panthers: 2-14

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Post by Pr4wn Tue 09 Aug 2011, 5:56 pm

Fancy offering a counter-argument then grizz?

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Post by Grizzly Tue 09 Aug 2011, 6:03 pm

I take it back Derby, he left us in 2009 and played for the Falcs that season.

Pr4wn - it was a very tongue in cheek comment as you probably gathered so I won't offer a counter arguement other than to say that you have confessed to the Buccs being potentially hit or miss this season, whereas the Falcs offence is a known force and proved last season to be high quality.

I'll go:
Saints 14-2
Falcs 13-3
Buccs 9-7
Panthers 4-12

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Post by GSC Tue 09 Aug 2011, 7:32 pm

That projection seems ever so slightly OTT Grizzly.
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Post by Derbyblue Tue 09 Aug 2011, 7:51 pm

I asked @ThePewterPlank if the Bucs could win the division, if not who will?

@606v2AF They're capable of it, but I don't think it happens this year. I think New Orleans will win it and TB will get a WC berth.

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Post by skins4ever Tue 09 Aug 2011, 8:01 pm

Pr4wn wrote:Freeman is a better QB, Ryan get his stats by making short, safe throws.

Sorry but a quick Google disputes that....

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d81c0d473
http://www.nfl.com/videos/tampa-bay-buccaneers/09000d5d81caec94
http://www.nfl.com/videos/cleveland-browns/09000d5d81b35211

And I know there's more out there. Freeman is good and so is Ryan. The difference between these teams will be the defenses as they both have cracking offenses, not the QB's.

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Post by GSC Tue 09 Aug 2011, 8:16 pm

I'm not convinced the Bucs are the real deal. Really beat up on bad teams last season. Nor am I convinced the Falcons are 13 wins good.
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Post by Grizzly Tue 09 Aug 2011, 9:17 pm

Graeme Swann's Cat wrote:That projection seems ever so slightly OTT Grizzly.

Yeah probably, division could easily have 37/38 wins though....

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Post by Derbyblue Wed 10 Aug 2011, 12:32 am

@PJFoleyExaminerP. Foley
@606v2AF The Falcons, of course. But the Saints could also take it as well.

He is one of the people who writes for the Falcons NFL Blitz Blog, so that view could be biased.

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Post by Thomond Wed 10 Aug 2011, 10:54 am

A few things,Freeman had a higher yards per throw average than Ryan last year,threw less interceptions had a higher QB rating and rushed for 200 yards more with a 5.4 average. Would think it is at least even between the two of them.

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Post by Derbyblue Wed 10 Aug 2011, 1:20 pm

From one of the guys who blogs about the Bucs for NFL.com:
@606v2AF Tampa Bay (of course) :-) Seriously though, it's a three team race. Don't count out the Bucs.

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Post by skins4ever Wed 10 Aug 2011, 3:44 pm

Thomond - QB rushing is irrelevant unless you have a true rushing QB (a la Vick or VY) or you have lousy pass protection.

As to the passing stats, Ryan threw 9 INTS's and Freeman threw 6. Any QB that throws fewer than 10 is pretty good so its a bit of an unfair comparison if you ask me. YPT is a little different, but you're comparing 7. to 6.5 so again there's no gulf between them.

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Post by Thomond Wed 10 Aug 2011, 4:29 pm

Skins,Freeman was the 2nd best rushing qb in the league last year. Don't underestimate the ability to scramble and get a first down or get 5 six yards on 2nd or 1st down. The big difference is Ryan threw more passes than Freeman and had a slightly better success rating. There is no doubt though that these guys are both extremely talented.

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Post by skins4ever Wed 10 Aug 2011, 5:42 pm

I don't underestimate it, but its the type of offense you consider as well. The Falcons have a great running game and good OL so not much need for Ryan to run. Freeman often ran last year because he had to. If he had a better pocket, he'd probably have thrown more passes, especially to his backs on check downs. That would have lowered his average, but probably increased his %.

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Post by Thomond Wed 10 Aug 2011, 8:03 pm

He only had one back who could catch last year and I agree that the Bucs have two good Oline guys but the rest are suspect. Freeman is a great scrambler.

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Post by Derbyblue Wed 10 Aug 2011, 11:24 pm

I notice we've had 2 more votes for Atlanta and one more for the Saints but no explanations, and we still don't know who voted for the Panthers.

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Post by Grizzly Thu 11 Aug 2011, 8:30 am

We should run this for every division, check back in January....

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Post by Derbyblue Thu 11 Aug 2011, 10:06 am

That was the plan Grizzly. Smile

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Post by Derbyblue Thu 11 Aug 2011, 10:51 am

Skins: From one of the NFL.com's Falcons bloggers on Julio Jones
@606v2AF He's looking good. No idea what happens when Jones lines up against his first pro back.

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Post by Thomond Thu 11 Aug 2011, 11:36 am

We also don't know who voted for the Bucs...

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Post by Derbyblue Thu 11 Aug 2011, 11:46 am

Thomond wrote:We also don't know who voted for the Bucs...
Yes we do:
Forward Pass wrote:I have gone with the Bucs just a feeling they will improve again this year . Saints will also make play offs
Falcons might make it 3 South teams in post season
Panthers will win more than last year but not many

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