They are still talking about "The Shot"

I can't remember a more discussed single point in tennis in recent memory and I think this will be something discussed for a long time. The WSJ, breaks it down wonderfully:

But if you look at it another way, the shot wasn’t just “The Shot” but also the best shot to play on match point. Consider what chance Djokovic had of winning the match at that moment. He had to win that point, of course. And going for a return winner isn’t a terrible idea against Federer. He is one of the sport’s best attackers ever. If given a passive reply off a first serve, he might put it away. What seems like the safe option is putting your fate in your opponent’s hands. Djokovic took fate in his own hands with that shot.

Furthermore, Djokovic didn’t need to win just that point, at 40-15. He needed to win the next one, and even then, after escaping two match points, he’d have to somehow outscore Federer by two, on Federer’s serve. Then he’d have to hold serve in the next game just to stay in the match. And at that point, from a purely probabilistic point of view, he’d have just a 50% chance of winning, assuming the two players were evenly matched, which they certainly seemed to be at that point.

Jeff Sackmann, who writes about tennis stats at his blog Heavy Topspin, has produced estimates of winning probabilities at matches from the four major tournaments this year. By his calculation, Djokovic had just a 1.3% chance of winning the match when that 40-15 point started. Even after it ended, Djokovic had just a 3.5% chance of winning. The odds were against him no matter what he did. So why not try something that might affect not only that point, but all remaining ones? Perhaps Federer could be rattled by such an audacious return. Maybe if it landed in, it might affect his play the rest of the match.

http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2011/09/16/the-shot-was-a-risk-worth-taking/?mod=google_news_blog

A very good article and very good read I recommend it. Novak was faced with a stark choice double match point down on fed's serve. Hit a game changer and take a big risk or leave the match to be deicded on Roger's racquet. He obviously made the right play in retrospect. But in a tight match he not only tried to win that point, but to make a statement that could have repurcussions for the rest of the match.

1.3%?

I was thinking more 1.4823 based on trigonometry/calculus: x integer.

I think this is over analysing the moment...Nole just went for it and got lucky. He wasnt thinking that if he won the shot it might make Roger crumble...but it was a shot that kind of sums up Novak's year, everything he seems to touch turns to gold.

Lydian, I think it is an interesting take on it. His back was against the wall he took a gamble and the gamble paid off. If he wasn't one of the best returners in the world he would have never been able to hit that shot. And if he had gone with a safe return he would have left the game on Roger's racquet to most likely finish with his forehand.

I just find it interesting how the shot has seemingly taken on a life of its own and even after the final fans and the media are still talking about it.