Heineken Cup Pool 3 - Will it be "easy" for Leinster?

I was very happy with the draw when it was made. After winning a much tougher pool last year with style, Leinster should be favourites. O'Driscoll is out for the pool stage probably. I'm not sure when Horgan is back. We've lost Hines. In their places will be younger Irish players. Which in the long run is a very good thing, but in the short term, it probably means we'll be a bit weaker this season.

Bath are floating around midtable in the Premiership. They haven't beaten Ulster in four attempts so it's hard to see them beating Leinster. Montpellier away up 1st could be a banana skin. We're still integrating our internationals back into the team. Leinster have lost the opening HEC game before in previous years. Montpellier nearly won the Top 14 last year. However, they're near the bottom this year. I suspect they'll put up a fight in the first 2 or 3 pool matches and then throw in the towel to concentrate on the league. Glasgow have beaten us in Dublin already this year. But the Heineken Cup is a different bag of badgers. I'd fully expect two tough matches but two wins.

All in all I expect Leinster to get at least 5 wins and a home quarter final. But I'm worried about how complacent I feel. Can anyone see Leinster slipping up in this group? Which team is our biggest threat? How much will we miss O'Driscoll, Horgan and Hines? Would accommodating Kearney at fullback blunt our attacking play?

I think you'll miss Horgan and BOD big time and yes Kearney instead of Nacewa at 15 clearly does blunt the attack. Horgan, BOD and Nacewa are just so fundimental to Leinsters attack that they don't look the same threat without them.

The scrum seems weaker without Hines. Toner doesn't add the same muscle in the tight.

Horgan is back in january I think?

Yes this group should be relatively easy for you. You topped one of the toughest pools last season. In comparison this should be a walk in the park.

None of the sides have the firepower to scare you.

Biggest threat is Bath. That's not saying much about the group as they are arguably the weakest English side in the competition.

We should top the group and honestly I'll be slightly disappointed if we don't win every game.

I'd rate Bath as the biggest threat and wouldn't be surprised if they beat us in the away game,I know Montpellier made the Top 14 final last year but they scraped into the playoffs and then found a burst of form at the right time.Glasgow will make it tough but they've now lost Richie Gray to Sale and I don't think they have the quality to stop us.

Kearney at fullback is a step down from Nacewa but he has shown an ability to offload in the last 2 games that he never had before,I think Schmidt is starting to show his influence there and hopefully that will continue.He needs to improve his tackling and be more of a threat from general attacking play as Nacewa will be 1st choice on the wing until Shaggy come back.

Gray isn't joining Sale until next June I don't think.

Leinster should win the pool though.

Ah well that will make them tougher alright,I'd still expect 2 wins but they won't be a walkover in Glasgow.

Montpellier have some good young players so will be a tough opposition, you don't get to the Top 14 final without a decent pack and they do have the French fly half (when Livermont bothered to play him). I found out recently that they also have Gorgodze the massive Georgian playing for them as well. Don't think they'll threaten Leinster at the Aviva but the game down in Montpellier will be a really tough one.

Bath at the Rec is winnable. They are currently showing very little form and despite fair but by no means heavy RWC disruption (comapred to others) I thought they would have started better. A lot seems to be hanging on Stephan Donald re-igniting their backs.

The honest answer to the question is yes, I think Leinster will qualify with no real troubles and secure a home QF.
Bath certainly havent shown any indications of the sort of form which might trouble them so as long as they can beat Montpeiller away it shouldn't be too hard for them.

What are Baths ambitions realistically?
Is qualifying in one of the best runner up spots doable?

On paper the group is a lot easier that last year and we should win it and get a home draw for the QF. But the Leinster team going to HC this year is a a fair bit weaker than last year with Horgan and BOD out, Hines gone to France and some of the players at nowhere like the form level of last year (e.g. Heaslip)

Hines is a huge loss and tho Toner has played a lot better this year than most of us expected him to, he still lacks the devil that Hines brought to the team when he was the perfect partner for Leo. Against that front row is strong (though back-up was shown up badly against Munster when Healy and Ross went off and Hagan and VDM weren't great). Back row still v strong and will be better if Heaslip gets his finger out - lots of back-up too with Ryan, McLaughlin and Ruddock.

Half backs fine - Ross and Reddan - pick whichever depending on the opponents. Sexton seems in good shape and young Madigan has done very well while Sexton was at the RWC - very fast, good hands, not the greatest kicker tho.

Midfield without BOD and a fading Darcy is the big problem. Probably going to see a Darcy-McFadden starting pairing with O'Malley on the bench. O'Malley has a great pair of legs but he seems a bit small for a modern-day centre. Fitz can also play 13 at a pinch but he's not really a centre.

Back three - Nacewa on the wing is a mistake imposed on us by IRFU who will want Kearney at FB. Isa is our best strike runner sspecially when running from deep and he's going to be wasted on the wing. Kearney has got a lot of form back and is grand in the air but he still doesn't convince as a strike runner.

Hope for 5 wins out of 6 with 2 or 3 bonus points to give 22-23 points and enough for a home QF

Who would you have on the wing if Nacewa plays full back?I don't rate Kearney as a winger so until Horgan is fit I think Nacewa is the right choice as 14.
Dave Kearney has impressed me I wonder can he make the step up?

asoreleftshoulder wrote:What are Baths ambitions realistically?
Is qualifying in one of the best runner up spots doable?

Well obviously I hope they will be looking to win every game. But a best runners up spot would be a good return although you might imagine that the pool with Aironi will be more likely to produce one that this pool. A drop down to the Challenge cup wouldn't be a complete disaster as any silverwear is welcome and it would be good to have a chance to develop some winning momentum in the business end of the season.

Mind you, with a settled team and Donald taking over from Vesty, things could all change, it only takes a couple of wins to turn a mindset around.

I'm not sure Donald will suit the running game Bath like to play.

Talking about Leinster at centre, Sheridan going down in the pre-season is a big loss. A big, fast crash ball merchant with a nice step and soft hands. I had him in front of Macken and challenging O'Malley up till his knee went during the Saints game in Donnybrook. Anyone know when he is meant to be back. With BOD out, he would have been my bolter.

I agree band-

He looked good, really did. Not much of a distributor but had other talents.

Agree that our attack will look blunter but maybe not as much as is being said here, McFadden will give us the ability to stretch the midfield just because he is so much faster than Bod, he is lacking in other areas but is a good option.

Nacewa is much less influential on the wing and while Kearney is safe in the air and has a good boot, we won't see him joining the line the same way or breaking the line on the counter attack to the same extent or even near the same extent that Isa was. I think that will be much more telling re:our attack.

PS: Think our biggst threat is going to come from montpellier this weekend I wish we'd drawn them after christmas away as they wouldn't give two thoughts to a HCup game unless they were in with a real shout of winning it.

Don't think Bath will be that big an issue, Glasgow could be but shouldn't be.

The thing about Nacewa and to a lesser extent Horgan is that they are instigaters of the attacks. They are always looking for and opportunity to take the defence on and bring others into space.

Kearney is world class under the high ball but he just doesn't have the same vision or attacking instinct and Nacewa has less influence on the wing.

Kearney doesn't have the pace to play on the wing as was seen a few weeks ago were he got caught from behind a few meter from the line after his brother put him away.

The only solution is to move Nacewa to fullback, play Carr on the wing and sell Kearney to Ulster . Cheers.

If you give us Tuohy we'll call it a deal.

Leinster have already lost to Glasgow so I'm surprised that so many here are expecting to take 10 points from Glasgow, to be honest It's more than a wee bit disrespectful.

To say the HC is differant from the Rabbo is perhaps unfair too. Are you saying Leinster will some how magically play better in the HC than they do in the Rabbo?

Well yes thats pretty much what we're saying although I'd expect we'll 9 pointsfrom Glasgow,10 would be a bonus.There's nothing magical about it we just pick our strongest 22 every time in the Heino whereas we don't in the league.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:Well yes thats pretty much what we're saying although I'd expect we'll 9 pointsfrom Glasgow,10 would be a bonus.There's nothing magical about it we just pick our strongest 22 every time in the Heino whereas we don't in the league.

+1
Should have seen that coming Ragge

Glasgow will be tough, they’re flying it in the league now and we always struggle in Scotland, but I think we can beat them home and away. With a HC team and HC intensity we can beat anyone, plus there’s the small matter of some revenge to be dished out.

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:

asoreleftshoulder wrote:Well yes thats pretty much what we're saying although I'd expect we'll 9 pointsfrom Glasgow,10 would be a bonus.There's nothing magical about it we just pick our strongest 22 every time in the Heino whereas we don't in the league.

+1
Should have seen that coming Ragge

Neither team was at full strength since the bulk of both sides were at the RWC. Still it is pretty arrogant to assume 9 points from a team that has already turned you over in your own backyard this season.

It's not really arrogant,we got 9 and 10 points versus Saracens and Racing Metro last season.I don't rate Glasgow as any better than those two.

Just because we've beaten better teams doesn't mean Glasgow can't touch us. Remember we lost at home to London Irish the year before.

That said, I'd be disappointed if we didn't get two wins against Glasgow. Leinster really are a different beast in the Heineken Cup. You shouldn't underestimate how much Leinster and Munster priorities success in Europe over the League.

I don't think they can't touch us,I'd just be disappointed if we don't get 9 points from Glasgow.
It doesn't mean I don't respect them.The fact we're a bit weaker this season with injuries and players leaving means it's not a foregone conclusion but I think our Heino form the last 3 years indicates we can be confident.

Apologies if it seemed arrogant Ragge, I expect us to beat you in both games however and I honestly don't feel that is arrogant, I do think you could beat us but I see it as less than likely, I think it is possible for us to get a bonus point in Dublin and probable that you will get a bonus point in Glasgow.

Nah I can't see Glasgow beating Leinster at the RDS again, but I also can see Glasgow winning at Firhill.

Points wise losing BP for both teams who hold the fixture at home.