The Paris Masters and World Tour Finals - Winning Correlation

Congrats to Roger Federer for finally winning in Bercy, a tournament win that eluded him for nearly a decade much to the surprise of the sports spectators. In fact it was strange to have Tsonga, a former winner against Federer who was a first time finalist in this event. Much is being made of Federer's form in the last 2 weeks and the focus is now on what impact he can have at the WTF and if he can defend his title should he produce the same level of tennis.

I cannot see him replicating this form next week. The reason being the field is extremely strong and scrappy matches such as the QF against Monaco will not get the job done when playing one of the top 8. That aside, I found some rather pointless information which I thought I would share with all of you.

Since the 1968 introduction of the Paris Masters and the 1970 introduction of what we now call the WTF, only 3 players have been able to win Paris and then triumph in the season ending finale that same year.

1973 - Nastase
1992 - Becker
1997 Sampras

The last double winner was Pete Samprass 14 years ago and its hard to believe in 40 years this has happened just 3 times. I put it down to the winner being 'spent' after Paris and being able to put in a good showing. Also interesting to note that very few players were finalists in both tournaments in the same year.

I would expect the most rested player to lift the trophy in London and for me that has to be Nadal. What do you guys think?
[b]

Fedfans, this is a very simplistic analysis at best of what might happen. As you will know, Fed doesn't need to win all his matches @ the WTF to win the event (although he did last year). Furthermore, just the fact Fed has won the WTF 5 times is indicative that he performs well there.

Fed has won many difficult doubles in his career including the Indian Wells & Miami double (not once but twice and successively), the French Open and Wimbledon double and came close to winning the Cinny and Canadian double. If any man stands a chance of winning the Paris and WTF double, it's Fed (not mentioning the fact Djokovic has an injury to recover from and this is the same place Fed last beat Nadal).

Federer will win the WTF. It is BO3 and everybody is either tired or injured. If WTF was BO5, somebody else would win it, like at the slams for the past 2 years.

Reason why so few have done the Paris/ yearendchampionship double so rarely is that so many of the top players have either been very tired during Paris or have elected not to play there at all.
People may recall Henman's win at Paris in 03. Tim had been injured and had not played so much that year. Each day he seemed to be taking on a guy who had had a long, long match the day before. Got to the final and defeated......Pavel, for Pete's sake.

FedsFan wrote:
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The last double winner was Pete Samprass 14 years ago and its hard to believe in 40 years this has happened just 3 times. I put it down to the winner being 'spent' after Paris and being able to put in a good showing.

I would expect the most rested player to lift the trophy in London and for me that has to be Nadal. What do you guys think?
[b]

Not sure about this theory of the winner of Paris being too 'spent' to then put in a good showing at the WTF

Last year Fed arrived in London after contesting a total of 98 games in Paris for his SF run there. He then won WTF going undefeated all week as we know. This year he will arrive as the Paris champion - but having played just 95 games to take the title. I think over the years his fitness level was such that he tired far less quickly than others in the game, although that's naturally changing now that he's in his thirties

As for the likely winner in London : I agree that a rested Rafa has the best chance, with Fed 2nd favourite for me. Djoker and Murray both look as if they should be lazing on a beach somewhere hot, but I certainly don't discount their prospects ........

If I were a betting man, I would bet on Feds.

If Federer wins WTF this year, he would have won it six times, one more than Lendl or Sampras @ 5 each.

laverfan wrote:If Federer wins WTF this year, he would have won it six times, one more than Lendl or Sampras @ 5 each.

That would be a great achievement considering his age and the other talent in the competition. Realistically is this possible though? From the first match onwards you are playing a top guy and apart from those he has not played this year such as Fish, Murray, Ferrer and Berdych, he has lost to the rest in the draw this year.
Tough ask to be honest.