Northampton v Scarlets

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/15725328.stm

Northampton put their seven-and-a-half year unbeaten Heineken Cup record on the line against Scarlets on Friday.

The Llanelli region were the last team to beat Saints at Franklin's Gardens when fly-half Stephen Jones kicked eight points in an 18-9 win in 2004.

The Scarlets have only won once away in their last eight European games and but Heineken Cup runners-up Northampton lost their opener this term at Munster.

Rhys Priestland could make his first Scarlets start this season.

The versatile back suffered a shoulder injury in Wales' World Cup quarter-final victory over Ireland and came on as a replacement for Stephen Jones in the Scarlets' opening European victory against Castres.

Northampton beat Llanelli at the Madejski Stadium in the 2000 Heineken Cup semi-final en route to winning the tournament.

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Should be a good game but unfortunately I can't see the Scarlets getting much out of it, hopefully a LBP. Still we can dream

How much stronger physically are the Scarlets compared to last year?

There are clear parallels - between this year and last. Scarlets travel to the East Midlands to face a very physical side in Round 2 having secured a home win against a French side in round 1. Despite scoring the best try against tigers they were blown away.

Saints look to dominate through a strong front row and good lineout. If the Scarlets front 5 are unable to prevent Saints bullying them, I cannot see them getting anything from the game.

LondonTiger, I think that's about the long and the short of it.

I'd say our fowards have improved since last year, particularly our props as Rhys T is playing a lot better - and correct me if I'm wrong but I'm sure last year we had our 3rd or 4th prop against Leicester, we've also got Timani who looks like he's going to add some grunt to our 2nd row.

Saying that I think we'll struggle to get anything like 40/60 of the scrum and get quick ball - but (I'm hoping) our defence should hold up better than against Leicester last year, and I just hope we can release our backs with the ball we do get.

I would say that the Scarlets front five look stronger than last year. They were still pushed around a bit by Castres but not as much as I thought they would be.

Against Munster last week Saints front fow didnt dominate up front with Tonga'uiha, Hartley, Mujati not having the explosive games that they are famed for, last year they dominated every scrum the went for. I also thought that their back three in particular Foden looked poor defensively. Good in attack though

The Scarlets pack are much improved on last year but they have a long way to go and despite Rhys Thomas being stronger in the scrum he doesnt exactly instill me with confidence with his scrummaging. I'd be happy with a LBP.

Hmm - if that's true Maes (unfortunately I didn't manage to see any of that game) it will make for an interesting game, as North and JD2 will be bitting at the bit, and with Priestland (hopefully) fully fit and Liam and Scott Williams looking dangerous then we could really punish any lax defending - IF we get enough ball and can stay in their 22 long enough

Subs - completely agree with you.

I think thats a big IF priest. If we get enough ball then we all know that the back line can do some damage. Just afraid that we will get bullied up front. I havent seen much of Saints playing recently, lets hope they are overhyped!

SubsBench wrote:I think thats a big IF priest. If we get enough ball then we all know that the back line can do some damage. Just afraid that we will get bullied up front. I havent seen much of Saints playing recently, lets hope they are overhyped!

Although I'm biased being a Saints fan but if we can pick the same front 5 as last week against Munster, and your front row isn't the strongest then it could be a long afternoon for your forwards. Saints were on top in the scrum for most of the match and were unlucky not to have more penalties at scrum time. Knowing how potentially dangerous your backline can be I wouldn't be supriosed if Saints play it tight for the first 50 minutes or so, maybe even start with Myler instead of Lamb.

Saints have to pick Dowson over Clark IMO. That was a poor call by them last week.

I'd have also thought Myler the way to go.

Since Tom Wood returned from NZ, Saints have started with him and Clark in teh back row and alternated between Wilson and Dowson.

Saints by around 20 I would think. Far too strong for the Scarlets all over the pitch.

Scarlets scrum will be going backwards all day.

only in the forwards, not 'all over the pitch'.

I guess we will see just how good Scarlets are, and how much they have improved.

Last seasons Scarlets would be looking at a 30pt defeat.

Scarlets are going to have to front up massively in the pack to try and contain Saints at home.

If Saints get them on the backfoot and scrambling to hold the line, your going to get Ashton, Foden etc coming in looking for work on the angles and opening up Scarletts midfield all day.

Sorry but expecting Saints to win this by 25-30 pts.

red_stag wrote:Saints have to pick Dowson over Clark IMO. That was a poor call by them last week.

I'd have also thought Myler the way to go.

To be fair to Clark, he did play pretty well.

I have been saying this for ages now, and it still boils my pee. If you watch the Northampton scrum they will always have at least one player who will stand up. It is usually Dylan Hartley, but the other two are not averse to doing it aswell. What this does, is, that it stops the dominant front row from being able to push forward and as a result causes the other front row to stand up and the scrum becomes such a mess that the ref just wants the ball out of there. To me this is a new form of cheating, and I cannot see how Northampton get away with it so much, I have even seen this tactic being used by England. This is very frustrating and the way the sky comentators wax lyrical about the Northampton scrum as being the best in the business also winds me up, because if they did not use this tactic they would not be as formidable, it is up to the referee to put a stop to this and it is about time they did

He did ok but I think Dowson, Wood and Wilson is their best unit and c(w)ould have fared better overall.

LordDowlais wrote:I have been saying this for ages now, and it still boils my pee. If you watch the Northampton scrum they will always have at least one player who will stand up. It is usually Dylan Hartley, but the other two are not averse to doing it aswell. What this does, is, that it stops the dominant front row from being able to push forward and as a result causes the other front row to stand up and the scrum becomes such a mess that the ref just wants the ball out of there. To me this is a new form of cheating, and I cannot see how Northampton get away with it so much, I have even seen this tactic being used by England. This is very frustrating and the way the sky comentators wax lyrical about the Northampton scrum as being the best in the business also winds me up, because if they did not use this tactic they would not be as formidable, it is up to the referee to put a stop to this and it is about time they did

Unfortunately Dowlais I dont think the Saints pack are going to have to worry about resorting to such tactics against us.

Tiny and Mujati are not great technicians - but extremely strong.
Hartley stands up a lot.

If you look however while Saints do stand up, it happens when they are going forward, not usually when they are under pressure. The speed at which they tend to move forward helps them get the decisions. If you can stop the initial drive (as Tigers did in the Playoff semi last year) then you can put them under pressure and drive them back. This takes strength, size and technique - a combination of which Scarlets may be lacking.

LondonTiger wrote:
If you look however while Saints do stand up, it happens when they are going forward, not usually when they are under pressure.

I guess they'll be standing up quite a lot

LondonTiger wrote:
If you can stop the initial drive (as Tigers did in the Playoff semi last year) then you can put them under pressure and drive them back. This takes strength, size and technique - a combination of which Scarlets may be lacking.

Ohh nuts

LondonTiger wrote:Tiny and Mujati are not great technicians - but extremely strong.
Hartley stands up a lot.

If you look however while Saints do stand up, it happens when they are going forward, not usually when they are under pressure. The speed at which they tend to move forward helps them get the decisions. If you can stop the initial drive (as Tigers did in the Playoff semi last year) then you can put them under pressure and drive them back. This takes strength, size and technique - a combination of which Scarlets may be lacking.

The WUMS are out in force now
Firstly Beshocked informs morganwwg that he doesn't know a thing about the Saints squad, and that majority of the back line are English when in reality only 50% of them are.......... and now LondonTiger insinuates this

I believe the Scarlets front row will be equal to the Saints...... not sure strength or size (of course I could pull up the player stats), but come the weekend all previous might go out of the window

1. I Thomas - Magners lose head prop of the year. travesty that he wasn't in the WC for Wales
2. M Rees - Lions Hooker, Welsh captain, and technically up there with the best in Europe
3. R Thomas - I believe he is coming back to form after injuries

Interesting that Nigel Davies has stated that he will be speaking to the referee on the legality of the Northampton scrum, should be interesting to see the refs interpretaion of the Saints drive

Should be a good game but unfortunately I can't see the Scarlets getting much out of it, hopefully a LBP. Still we can dream

That's about the long and the short of it.

FHF all that is true about the Scarlets front row but I believe that given that our locks are weaker in the scrum combined with the fact that most referees believe our scrum is weaker means that the penalties are more likely to go to Northampton, given they are see by refrees as having one of the best/dominant scrums.

FHF,

1) Scrummaging is not just about the Front Row. All 8 have an important part to play - especially the Flankers. Mujati likes to try and split the LH away from the hooker. the LH needs help from his flanker to keep him in and tight.

2) Rees is a good hooker - scrummaging is not the strongest part of his game.

3) I wrote a balanced point and suggested that Scarlets (who struggled to cope with Castres in the scrum, and Tigers in January - ignoring the December game as you were a bit weaker then) may struggle to cope with Saints often illegal tactics in the scrum.

I stand by my assertion - Scarlets may be lacking in the combination of strength, size and technique needed to cope. Leinster managed it, but recently Cardiff and Munster have not. It is not a slight on Scarlets - just an achknowledgement that scrummaging is not the strongest part of their game.

LondonTiger wrote:FHF,



2) Rees is a good hooker - scrummaging is not the strongest part of his game.

yes it is, if you remember he was brought into the Lions 2nd test team because of his scrummaging.

LT - we weren't a full strength scrum in January either just so you know.

And Rees' scrummaging is one of this strengths.

I do agree with you though about the Saints scrum coming out on top. Scarlets' problems aren't the front row, it's the 2nd row and the support we are able to give our front row. This is why I really hope Timani and Welch start for us, they our our biggest locks. Would be a huge boost as well if we could have McCusker in the back row too. He'd be a huge help to us.

I don't by anymeans believe we'll have the equal to Saints in the scrum, but we managed to get fairly decent ball from it against Castres, so if we do the same again then I'll be happy. We are a side wehre our backs are used to living off scraps on occassion so it shouldn't be so bad (she says very hopefully!)

The Saints scrum were pretty awesome last year, but I thought the two props tired easily last weekend. Scarlets have good reserves and if they can use them to keep the momentum going they could actually find a bit of parity toward the end of the match.

Would like to see a settled scarlets back row, they have some great players there but have not had the same three all season. Morgan, Turnbull and McCusker have to be the pick of the bunch in my opinion.

Injuries are the cause of that though, Turnbull has been out for a number of weeks and McCusker should be back in the next couple of weeks, but agreed, that is our best backrow.

I don't think Jon Edwards or Richie Pugh have been bad fill ins though. Edwards can be quite the player on his day.

Edwards was superb against Castres, just brilliant. His best game for a while, especially after his mess up for the Trimble try the other week.

Also last season the Ospreys bullied our pack and battered us but this year our scrum looked so much better against them and we got a draw,
Roller skates has got a big job on his hands against Tonga'uiha,he does bore in and stands up also pushing Hartley to pop up,
Yes illegal but refs don't seem to have problem with it so its up to the players to deal with it.
But we shouldn't be afraid to play to our strengths and just run and run at the big props.

I think we will have a good game on our hands,win or lose i couldn't care less just as long as we play some nice rugby.

It would be great to see the ref penalise saints for popping up. They also shove early a lot.

Nige wasn't silly wanting to have a word about the scrum.

flyhalffactory wrote:
1. I Thomas - Magners lose head prop of the year. travesty that he wasn't in the WC for Wales
2. M Rees - Lions Hooker, Welsh captain, and technically up there with the best in Europe
3. R Thomas - I believe he is coming back to form after injuries

First off neither Beshocked or LondonTiger are WUMS. There opinions may differ to yours, but they are usually offered honestly with only occasionally leg pulling.

Second... You do have a decent front row, but your locks are seriously underpowered compared to Saints.

Trust me... as an old prop myself, I can tell you with all sincerety, that if you don't have power coming through from the 2nd row it doesn't matter if your the best prop in the world... you are going to get pushed about.

MT - completely agree. Think most of us have commented that 2nd row is where most of our problems in the pack come from, and it's been the same for a few seasons now. Really hoping Timani and Welch start as that will give us a fair bit of solidity there really, probably the biggest combo we could put out.

flyhalffactory wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:Tiny and Mujati are not great technicians - but extremely strong.
Hartley stands up a lot.

If you look however while Saints do stand up, it happens when they are going forward, not usually when they are under pressure. The speed at which they tend to move forward helps them get the decisions. If you can stop the initial drive (as Tigers did in the Playoff semi last year) then you can put them under pressure and drive them back. This takes strength, size and technique - a combination of which Scarlets may be lacking.

The WUMS are out in force now
Firstly Beshocked informs morganwwg that he doesn't know a thing about the Saints squad, and that majority of the back line are English when in reality only 50% of them are.......... and now LondonTiger insinuates this

I believe the Scarlets front row will be equal to the Saints...... not sure strength or size (of course I could pull up the player stats), but come the weekend all previous might go out of the window

1. I Thomas - Magners lose head prop of the year. travesty that he wasn't in the WC for Wales
2. M Rees - Lions Hooker, Welsh captain, and technically up there with the best in Europe
3. R Thomas - I believe he is coming back to form after injuries

Interesting that Nigel Davies has stated that he will be speaking to the referee on the legality of the Northampton scrum, should be interesting to see the refs interpretaion of the Saints drive

Flyhalffactory errr not sure what you are on about. I informed morganwwg he doesn't know anything about the Saracens squad. Maybe he knows something about the Saints squad. Evidently you don't know anything about either squad. Only 50% of the backline are English? No. Get the facts right if you are going to try and scold me like a little child.

Saracens backline

9.De kock
10.Hodgson
11.Short
12.Barritt
13.Farrell
14.Strettle
15.Goode

All English bar de Kock though Wigglesworth is out for the season and two young English scrum halves waiting in the wings.

Saints backline

9.Dickson
10.Lamb
11.Diggin/Cato
12.Downey
13.Clarke
14.Ashton
15.Foden

All English bar Downey. Ok admittedly 5 out of 7 if Armitiev starts on the wing.

In regards to the respective frontrows you would expect Northampton to win that battle.

I personally can't see Scarlets winning. Too much power and pace in the Saints side. Certainly at FG they are too strong.

Will they hammer Scarlets? Probably not but I think it will be a comfortable home win by 12-15 points.


Thanks Metal Tiger.

[quote="Metal Tiger"]

flyhalffactory wrote:
First off neither Beshocked or LondonTiger are WUMS. There opinions may differ to yours, but they are usually offered honestly with only occasionally leg pulling.

I agree with you regarding LondonTiger, Beshocked isn't a Wind up Merchant, but his opinions are a bit blinkered so usually get a rise out of people. Particularly his constant underestimation of any team outside of France or England.

True some of my views can be a bit blinkered maestegmafia. Yes I do occasionally underestimate sides. That makes me look foolish when I am wrong though doesnt it?

I know a lot more about the Aviva Premiership sides than I do the Celtic League sides.

I personally find it harder to respect some Celtic League sides when they don't get into the HC on merit. They just automatically qualify whereas the French and English sides have to fight tooth and nail throughout the season.

Some sides in the HC have an artificially high ERC ranking including Biarritz which I think is wrong. I want Saracens to make a mockery of that system (well more than it is already). I hope they will.

You will have every right to tell me I am wrong if Saracens lose this weekend and don't top the pool.

I guess I will Beshocked.

I dont see the lack of relegation in the Celtic league as any different to the fact that there is no relegation in the Premiership, it has been ring fenced by the wealthy clubs preventing all but two premiership clubs possible to qualify for the premiership.

beshocked wrote:.

Some sides in the HC have an artificially high ERC ranking including Biarritz which I think is wrong. I want Saracens to make a mockery of that system (well more than it is already). I hope they will.

Biarritz was QF last year and finalist 2 years ago : their ranking reflects that. obviously, would they fail to make the play off they will go down, not to mention they will be playing AC at best next year anyway.

you do have a point though . look at Biarritz (again!), if Top 14 was relegation free their behaviour would be totally different: they would concentrate on the HCUP as already with nothing to hope from the domestic soil (being last they have very little chance to make the playoffs). Having 2 team relagated out of 14 means, it is clear where biarritz prority lies and this is good for the T14. As far as Pro12 teams are concerned, HCUP seems to be the pinnacle of their season.

whocare do you honestly think Biarritz are as good as Toulouse?

Biarritz have had an Italian team in 7 out of 8 seasons. They had a
relatively easy ride last season in the HC.

When they got to the final. Not a hugely tough pool then they had two home matches in the quarters and semis. A plucky performance in the final.

An exact mirror of Saint's journey last season.

True. Also because most of the Celtic teams are in the HC every year it helps build up the big match experience of their players. It also means they can experiment and build for the future with no reprecussions for failure.

For an English team or French team to maintain their spot in the HC it isn't easy. E.g. look at Leicester. They will probably qualify for the HC next year but will have to throw their 1st team into most AP matches.

Doing well in Europe can mean nothing for French and English sides.

E.g. 2007/8 semi finalists Saracens and London Irish didn't qualify for the season after, Perpignan semi finalists last season failed to qualify this year. Toulon failed to qualify.

beshocked wrote:
Biarritz have had an Italian team in 7 out of 8 seasons. They had a
relatively easy ride last season in the HC.

Biarritz lost to Airioni last year.

maestegmafia I meant an easy ride in regards to their group. Yup that loss to Aironi wasn't brilliant was it?

Saint's team has been announced:

15 Ben FODEN
14 Chris ASHTON
13 Jon CLARKE
12 James DOWNEY
11 Vasily ARTEMYEV

10 Ryan LAMB
9 Lee DICKSON

1 Soane TONGA’UIHA
2 Dylan HARTLEY (capt)
3 Brian MUJATI
4 Courtney LAWES
5 Mark SORENSON
6 Calum CLARK
7 Tom WOOD
8 Roger WILSON

Scarlets team:

15 Liam Williams
14 George North
13 Scott Williams
12 Jonathan Davies
11 Sean Lamont
10 Rhys Priestland
9 Gareth Davies
1 Iestyn Thomas
2 Matthew Rees
3 Rhys Thomas
4 Sione Timani
5 Damian Welch
6 Aaron Shingler
7 Jon Edwards
8 Ben Morgan

16 Ken Owens
17 Phil John
18 Rhodri Jones
19 Lou Reed
20 Matt Gilbert
21 Rhodri Williams
22 Stephen Jones
23 Daniel Evans


no Tavis Knoyle?

expect saints to win this one, but i think itll be closer than most people are predicting.

saints by 5-10 in a high scoring game.

got this off the Scarlets site,

Dominic day (calf injury), Rob McCusker (sprained foot) and Keiran Murphy (calf strain) have been ruled out through injury.

Tavis Knoyle, scrum-half was unwell in the early part of the week and due to his inability to take part in full Scarlets training in a tight turn around week has not been selected this weekend.

Richie Pugh, who is part of the WRU Wales 7s squad will travel for the HSBC Sevens World Series in Australia this weekend and due a minor strain picked up in training this week has been not been released by the WRU to the Scarlets for this fixture.

so Tavis is out after being ill, Rhys Priestland starts, looks like all out attack!

Cripes. HUGE ask for Gareth Davies in his first start in absolutely ages, with only Rhodri to fall back on. Plus a bit of a risk putting Gilbert on the bench but I guess without RobGog, Turnbull and Pugh we've got no choice.

Other then taht I'm really happy with the side. 10-15 looks brilliant, and I got my wish of Welch and Timani starting!

Big ask for G Daves, but I'm glad he's starting instead of R Williams who needs a lot more time before being ready for HEC - G Davies looked very promising last season, but for his 1st start this is going to be huge - gutted about Knoyle. Nice to see Timani and Welch in the 2nd row and we look good in the backs but another big ask for Liam Williams, who looks promising but is very inexperienced (especially against Ashton and Foden).

Still come on Sgarlets!