Nadal vs. Tsonga, who u think gonna win?

Line up your predictions for this do or die encounter.

While Tsonga is in great form and narrowly missed a win against Fed, Nadal struggling badly with match fitness, looks so rusty and so easily should have lost to Fish and should have had another disaster year in WTF.

With Ferrer most likely to top the other group, the 2nd place finisher or the winner of this match most likely to meet Ferrer in the semi.

I would have gone for Tsonga win if Djoko would have topped the group as Rafa would love to avoid Djoko in semi, now its more or less confirmed they are likely to meet Ferrer, Nadal would surely give one tough game to Tsonga and might pull it off in 3 tight sets.

I route Nadal win.

Based on Nadal's performances so far, I'll go for Tsonga in straight sets.

I think Rafa wants to get home and prepare for the DC final.

erictheblueuk wrote:Based on Nadal's performances so far, I'll go for Tsonga in straight sets.

I think Rafa wants to get home and prepare for the DC final.

Most Likely thats the case, but somehow see an upset tomorrow.

I would go for Tsonga on form alone this week, but given he is so incredibly erratic at times and that it is never wise to count Rafa out, I am going for the latter while hoping that Tsonga goes through because I feel, on performance so far, he deserves to.

If Tsonga's serve is booming, then I certainly fancy his chances.

I will fancy Tsonga, as long as he doesn't go too aggressive as he starts to go long on his FH. Nadal I don't think is going to go in all guns blazing and will try the rope a dope tactic. Not sure that it would work though.

I would say 2 options as usual when facing Nadal. EIther a straight easy win for Tsonga or a tight 3 sets for Nadal. Nothing in the middle.

I have no clue which way it's going to go.

We may not have seen the end of Nadal. First I don;t think he played badly v Fed, contrary to some rumours, secondly cause he might be motivated to play Ferrer, Berdych or even a diminished Djoko in the semi...and get another chance at winning the Masters.

But of course, like most matches v Rafa, they are in his opponents' racquets. So which Tsonga will turn up?

Nadal committed few errors against Federer. If he repeats that, he has a good chance since Tsonga is prone to commit the first error in a long rally. Tsonga plays better against attackers and a bit less against defenders. Nadal will concede points to Tsonga serve. If Tsonga serves something like 65% first serves, Nadal will have a battle on hand. But Tsonga is himself not a great returner, and Nadal will get a few points on his serve. When in defensive mode, Nadal's first serve percentage is about 70%. It is going to be a tough fight, unless Nadal comes with intention to catch the next flight home.

I reckon Nadal will win.

Tsonga in two easy sets, I reckon....

That's not necessarily true Tenez, Nadal did beat Tsonga for the loss of just a few games the last time they played...however, that was clay at DC. Its not so much whioch Tsonga will turn up, as which Nadal will turn up IMO.

However, I get the feeling that Nadal is a work in progress at the moment (working on new things in training, etc) and that WTF has come at the wrong time for him in that his game hasnt come back together. People may say he did play well against Federer but I completely disagree. Weak serve, loads of mid-court balls, bad movement, FH errors...sure Fed played great...but Nadal was pretty awful and much worse that the WTF 2010 version.

Therefore, I'm not expecting a win against Tsonga, even if Tsonga isnt that great. SOmetimes you cant tell with Nadal, he can improve dramatically in one event but I just dont see that happening here, he's still too rusty and indoor courts are no place to try to hone your game again, especially Nadal's.

Welcome on board Eskay. Good to see teh tennis section getting busier! You a former 606?

I actually think Tsonga is a good returner and that's where he will hurt nadal most on those slow court. It's what hurt Nadal v Federer most actually as Nadal was on teh back foot right after serving.

People may say he did play well against Federer but I completely disagree. Weak serve, loads of mid-court balls, bad movement, FH errors...sure Fed played great...but Nadal was pretty awful and much worse that the WTF 2010 version.

More than usual? I don;t think so. Just that his fans don;t pay attention to his game when he wins...and he has certainly won many matches playing just like that, if not much worse like v Fish.

Lydian, I am surprised you expect to see Nadal change his game. The only he needs to do is take the ball earlier but when facing the better players, he is and will always be pushed back! You cannot learn to take the ball earlier while keeping the UEs down.

In the minority by the sound of it, but I'm with Rafa for this one.

He'll be very keen to get things back on track after Tuesday and I don't see JWT (strong though he is at his best) unsettling him in the way Fed did.

completely agree with Lydian.

Rafa's return of serve has been woeful since the USO. If Tsonga serves like he can then the match is his to lose.

lags72 wrote:In the minority by the sound of it, but I'm with Rafa for this one.

He'll be very keen to get things back on track after Tuesday and I don't see JWT (strong though he is at his best) unsettling him in the way Fed did.

I think you are.

Cannot see a Rafa victory. JWT is playing fast stuff and I can't see Rafa hanging with him.

Hard one to call, Tsonga played pretty well against Fish (though he should have won more comfortably), but people forget he was awful for two sets against Federer. If Tsonga serves well he'll probably win as the return is an area where Rafa seems to be struggling at the moment. If Rafa gets a look-in on enough return games, I think Rafa will pull through. Whichever way you look at it, Rafa hasn't been at his best so far in this tournament (then again apart from Fed against Nadal and Ferrer in both matches neither have any of the other players), and the surface should suit Tsonga, so it's a great opportunity for him.

Tenez wrote:

People may say he did play well against Federer but I completely disagree. Weak serve, loads of mid-court balls, bad movement, FH errors...sure Fed played great...but Nadal was pretty awful and much worse that the WTF 2010 version.

More than usual? I don;t think so. Just that his fans don;t pay attention to his game when he wins...and he has certainly won many matches playing just like that, if not much worse like v Fish.

Lydian, I am surprised you expect to see Nadal change his game. The only he needs to do is take the ball earlier but when facing the better players, he is and will always be pushed back! You cannot learn to take the ball earlier while keeping the UEs down.

Ha ha! So not only do you not rate Nadal you also don't rate anyone that does...

What is there to rate most of this season he played? Apart from his running down of the balls on clay

Mmm what was I saying elswhere about the acceptable views on this site being pro Murray anti Nadal...

How do you "rate" Nadal for the 2011 season? Well only one player can be rated higher.

hawkeye wrote:

How do you "rate" Nadal for the 2011 season? Well only one player can be rated higher.

Federer did better than Nadal in handling that "one player".

Mmm what was I saying elswhere about the acceptable views on this site being pro Murray anti Nadal...

How do you "rate" Nadal for the 2011 season? Well only one player can be rated higher.

He was nearly eliminated in the 1st round of his most successful slam to John Isner

Tenez wrote:

hawkeye wrote:

How do you "rate" Nadal for the 2011 season? Well only one player can be rated higher.

Federer did better than Nadal in handling that "one player".

Tenez

I think Federer is a great player he doesn't need to worry about how he is rated. Both Nadal and Djokovic are not yet at that stage in their careers.

Josiah Maiestas

How many ranking points do you think Nadal should have deducted for nearly losing a match? Some would maybe like to deduct a few everytime he hits a topspin forehand...

Just letting you know how it was nearly very different. Nadal also could've dropped early in USO and Wimbledon with the way he was getting outplayed.

Don't worry I'm aware of how things were very nearly different this year. I just think other matches were far nearer to being different than that one.

Also I don't think Nadal ever looked in danger of going out early at Wimbledon or the US Open.

hawkeye wrote:Mmm what was I saying elswhere about the acceptable views on this site being pro Murray anti Nadal...

How do you "rate" Nadal for the 2011 season? Well only one player can be rated higher.

You don;t rate Murray for some reasons...so you certainly understand that others may dislike other players.

Also I don't think Nadal ever looked in danger of going out early at Wimbledon

His matches with Del Pony and Muller were nearly very different.

or the US Open.

He was getting owned by Golubev in 1st round in each set was a break down, then Golubev started to choke points freely

Muller 7-6 6-1 6-2, Golubev 6-3 7-6 7-5 and Del Potro 7-6 3-6 7-6 6-4

So I suppose he played a close set against Muller and Golubev but I dont think a straight sets win counts as in danger of going out. Against Del Potro he did drop a set but I think he had a foot problem too so that may have been a bit more of a problem. But hardly the closest matches of 2011.

Muller at wimbledon was 7-6 7-6 6-0 wasn't it? certainly tight first two sets, and if I remember correctly the two TBs were tight too. Don't think he was ever in danger of going out though, nor against Golubev, who's the sort of player who gets really tight when he goes ahead, as he did in all three sets at the US Open.

The Del Potro game was one where he did struggle, and wasn't that far from losing.

Nadal really dominated one tournament in his life: FO 08. Cause Roger was not 100% and Djoko was too young and bothered by a blistering wind (still took Nadal toa TB already then).

Besides that one, he has never made his wins look easy and comfy.

Do you think that is why he now looks exhausted Tenez? I must admit I have always felt that Rafa would burn out mentally before he burned out physically. When you look at the concentration etched in grimacing lines on his face and the tension causing all the veins on his neck to stand out, you realise the effort it costs him. You have to admire that kind of committment and endeavour, but I wonder for how long you can keep bringing the same indomitable attitude to the table?

time please wrote:Do you think that is why he now looks exhausted Tenez? I must admit I have always felt that Rafa would burn out mentally before he burned out physically. When you look at the concentration etched in grimacing lines on his face and the tension causing all the veins on his neck to stand out, you realise the effort it costs him. You have to admire that kind of committment and endeavour, but I wonder for how long you can keep bringing the same indomitable attitude to the table?

IT's a good point cause most defensive players tend to tire quicker (Borg, Wilander, Chang etc...).

But I don;t think Nadal is tired to play Federer cause Federer makes the game exciting for him. It provides him with targets like most other players. However when facing DJoko, he knows Djoko won;t cut corners so they are both in for a battle and Nadal there, I agree, gets mentally tired before getting physically tired. He has the same gutted look when he plays Davydenko cause he knows Davy is going to make him look toothless and only a super fit Rafa can challenge him.

I don;t see Rafa doing much next year. I know he will be super fit in those slams but even super fit, his is getting more and more challenged by lower ranked players, making it more tired earlier in the year, earlier in the slams.

That's why he wants a shorter season..while Federer is relatively happy with teh way things are. It's really hard work for him.

The only scenario is a typical Tsonga meltdown, Nadal has plenty of points to defend here and will be more wary than his disastrous previous match.

By all accounts the loss to Mayer in Shanghai apparently shook up Rafa one helluva lot and prompted a major re-assessment.

The long subsequent break - which apparently had not been planned in advance - was decided on virtually right after the match

There were posters who actually made Nadal favourite for London this year given that he hadn't won an indoor tournament and that there was 1 player who had his number this year and also another player who was on stonking form. Now I see excuse making for such poor performances, like DC duty next week.

Nadaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal will lose

Interesting lags72.

hawkeye wrote:Mmm what was I saying elswhere about the acceptable views on this site being pro Murray anti Nadal...

Sometimes cant believe how negative this forum is to Nadal. Guy has been solidly in the top 2 since 2005, 10 slams, 19 Masters, etc, and yet he's treated like he's completely inept and the devil incarnate on here.

lydian wrote:Interesting lags72.

hawkeye wrote:Mmm what was I saying elswhere about the acceptable views on this site being pro Murray anti Nadal...

Sometimes cant believe how negative this forum is to Nadal. Guy has been solidly in the top 2 since 2005, 10 slams, 19 Masters, etc, and yet he's treated like he's completely inept and the devil incarnate on here.

Disagree there lydian. Nadal is praised as much as he is criticised. HE is always moaning about Murray and moans when people moan about Nadal. Sorry lydian she has dug her own grave on here and shouldn't complain.

Fair points lk.

He certainly arrived in London as the most rested player so in many ways there was a case for making him a strong prospect, even if not the favourite

If he goes out (which personally I'm not expecting to happen) I think there are questions to be asked re his durability

I dont agree with that lags72, if he goes out I think there are questions to be asked about where his mind and game is at...but these are not necessarily linked to durability, rather whether he's lost his mojo or not. It happens...infact happened to Federer not too long ago as well, remember him smashing his racquet against Djokovic in the North American season a couple of years back and his form was woeful. These players have the ability to bounce back...form is temporary, class is permanent - and all these top guys are class players, Nadal is just in bad form and rusty at the moment I believe.

Well rather than 'durability', maybe I meant (more specifically) his ability to pace himself for a full season.

I would never question his class. The guy has absolutely nothing to prove in that regard.

lags72 wrote:I would never question his class. The guy has absolutely nothing to prove in that regard.

Indeed but, lol, you're swimming against the current thinking that in here!

lydian wrote:I dont agree with that lags72, if he goes out I think there are questions to be asked about where his mind and game is at...but these are not necessarily linked to durability, rather whether he's lost his mojo or not. It happens...infact happened to Federer not too long ago as well, remember him smashing his racquet against Djokovic in the North American season a couple of years back and his form was woeful. These players have the ability to bounce back...form is temporary, class is permanent - and all these top guys are class players, Nadal is just in bad form and rusty at the moment I believe.

At last something positive about Nadal. You would never believe from some of the dimissive comments here that Nadal is one of the all time greats. Federer does get criticism too but at least he gets a bit of support.

You mean about me picking him for the win tonight ...??

I still believe he will come through. And if he doesn't ..... well..... so be it. It won't affect my life

Excellent match, seems like a tournament of Underdogs with Federer being the exception.