Will We See At Last Early Rounds Upsets In 2012 Slams? (ATP of course)

We haven't had any upset (loss before 1/4F) for a long time which is very much against the trends of tennis history. Even MCenroe, Lendl, Wilander who played in a less competitove era were subject to the odd loss early in slams.

Regarding the current top 4, Murray and Djokovic come to mind but that already goes back to FO 10 Djoko v Kholi) or Murray v Berdych R16..but was that an upset? so we may have to go back to AO v Verdasco (09). Nadal? So we will have to go back to FO09...and finally Federer....well very simple! it was FO04 v Guga...some 8 years ago!

So who is going to be the next early casuality? Have a go!

If I had a punt it would be Murray at RG.

Only because I think it was 2010 when he was drawn against Gasquet in the 1st Round and was a set away from going out. I just think if he meets a Clay Courter, he could go out. Garcia-Lopez or Granollers could trouble him.

I think Federer, Nadal, Djokovic are too strong on all the surfaces and have never been troubled by lower ranked seeds. I know Isner nearly put out Rafa at RG and Falla nearly put out Federer Wimbledon 2010. It would be silly to bet against them 3.

A really outside never going to happen but could bet for 2nd place to Murray would be Nadal at Melbourne or New York.

Good choice....but I'll go for Nadal, surprisingly!

Though he has been one of the most consistent player, he has been the one having the closest shaves over the last few years.....even on clay!

What are the stats for sets dropped by the the top 4 since 2009??

That would make interesting reading

Nadal will try more than he did than at the WTF cause in the GS the players attendance fee won't be so high and they have to earn it more. He could lose in QF again or maybe even 4th round if he has a bad draw.

Your definition of upset overlooks what I'd classify as three Fed upsets, losing QF's to Soderling, Berdych, then Tsonga (from 2-0) at RG and Wimbledon over the last two years. That probably speaks volumes for TMF's consistent excellence though.

I think Murray is the most inconsistent of the top 4 at slams, but Fed's run has got to end in the next two years - why not next year?

Yes...it used to be a time when losing in the final of a slam was an upset for Federer. But obviously those days are over.

As I believe that Federer was not 100% mobile in Wimbledon 10 and 1/4F11, he has in my view been the most consistent with Djoko of late. Certainly the way he breathes through the earlier rounds.

A veteran like Nalbandian or an up and comer like Pospisil could be the ones who make the biggest upsets.

Federer at Wimbledon.

eraldeen wrote:Federer at Wimbledon.

It has been his worst slam over the last 2 years, so I like that call.

We don't agree on many things those days Barry. I think Wimbledon is still his best chance actually. SW19 2010 is irrelevant as he was clearly injured and 2011 was also very tricky as he visibly lost some mouvement in that 1/4F.

So sure he may pull a muscle more easily on grass but besides those special occasions, he has been very dominant on grass.

Tenez wrote:We don't agree on many things those days Barry. I think Wimbledon is still his best chance actually. SW19 2010 is irrelevant as he was clearly injured and 2011 was also very tricky as he visibly lost some mouvement in that 1/4F.

So sure he may pull a muscle more easily on grass but besides those special occasions, he has been very dominant on grass.

I agree with you on plenty of stuff, I am a huge fan of Federer like you, I am more pessimistic about him though, and whilst I am not a fan of Nadal and I see why you say he is a limited player relative to his achievements I still believe he will be effective enough to 'get the job done' on most surfaces against most players at the time of year when he usually peaks - except for Djoko should the latter maintain his form.

I'd love to see Federer prove me wrong - perhaps my pessimism is in part because I don't want to get my hopes up.

As I say, I don't expect Federer to dominate like in 2006. We certainly agree on that. And the reasons are simple. Nadal, Djoko and the rest of the field have made the tour a physically much tougher playing ground for the Tennis Master...but also for the top 2.

But though his odds of winning slams have considerably dropped, I still consider him one of the top 3 favourite...and roughly at equal odds with teh other 2. All down to luck of the draw and form of the day. With Federer still being able to pull the best tennis out there, but the other 2 being overall more consistent than Fed over 5 sets.

That's how I see it.

PS...I keep editing....

I agree that he's one of the top 3. I put him a small, but clear, step below the two above him. Fed needs more to fall to his advantage in order to win a slam than either of them; he is no longer his own rainmaker.

Nadal needs to avoid Djoko, and Djoko is vulnerable to Fed at the latter's still corruscating best.

With those three it's a little bit like paper-scissors-stone, although in normal circumstances Fed does not start as favourite against either of them in a slam.

Yes, then it comes to tiny margins discussions.

I actually fancy Murray and Djoko's chance in 2012. They are pretty close to the top 3, especially Murray as he is more consistent than Tsonga.

First 4 rounds is the right one for me, that counts as a shock result.

My vote went for Federer. Remember Haas at RG, Falla at Wimbledon, Berdych at Australian Open. All from 2 sets down in the first four rounds in the last 3 seasons. Also Simon was a more recent 5 setter, although not from behind.

He walks a tightrope with those kinds of days. One of them days, he will fall off. Perhaps this year. Roland Garros French Open will be my guess.

I think Nadal off clay is more much resistant to these kind of defeats than he used to be.

I reckon all top 4 will make it to the 2nd week of all 4 slams.

I voted Murray simply because I think he's the one who can blow hot & cold, or at least more often than the others. Although he has, admittedly, been very consistent in the Slams this past year

HB makes some good points as regards Fed's past 'tightrope' wins. He did indeed finally 'fall off' this year at Wimby but that was of course a QF rather than a first week/early round. However the fact that it happened - the very first time in 179 Slam matches that he has surrendered a 2-0 sets lead - dented his Slam aura to a degree. And perhaps this - together with his marginal loss of speed as the years catch up - increases the likelihood of a similar occurrence, and in an earlier round

Tenez wrote:Good choice....but I'll go for Nadal, surprisingly!

Though he has been one of the most consistent player, he has been the one having the closest shaves over the last few years.....even on clay!

Ha ha! You are funny...

hawkeye wrote:

Tenez wrote:Good choice....but I'll go for Nadal, surprisingly!

Though he has been one of the most consistent player, he has been the one having the closest shaves over the last few years.....even on clay!

Ha ha! You are funny...

Do I sense a nervous laugh with sarcasm?

Look, struggling to Isner, Anduja, Haase, Petzchner, G Muller, Tomic etc....gives me some ground for my choice, isn't it?!

I agree with some of the above: Murray is likely to fall early at least in a couple of slams. Nadal may struggle outside the clay. But if I have to pick someone who is likely to dominate the incoming season, I'd find it hard.

Tenez wrote:

hawkeye wrote:

Tenez wrote:Good choice....but I'll go for Nadal, surprisingly!

Though he has been one of the most consistent player, he has been the one having the closest shaves over the last few years.....even on clay!

Ha ha! You are funny...

Do I sense a nervous laugh with sarcasm?

Look, struggling to Isner, Anduja, Haase, Petzchner, G Muller, Tomic etc....gives me some ground for my choice, isn't it?!

Ha ha! again. I was just laughing at your wishful thinking. Do you find it more fun imagining Nadal going out in the first round of the French or Federer winning the trophy?

An early upset (before quarters) of the current top 4 is also very much dependent on the draw. There are some dangerous players outside the top 10 (though not many these days) that can cause an upset when they're playing well.

I am going to pick Djokovic for the next early upset. He's played some poor matches lately but so far he's been able to use the excuse of being tired at the end of a long season (which I agree is quite a valid excuse in his case). But come January, he can't use that anymore and will have to raise his level big time. Can he do it, or will the pressure get to him?

Most likely to fall early in Melbourne for me would be Nadal, just because he is the only one of the top 4 who ended the season on a visible low. Admittedly, he's won a Davis cup since then but I would still take a wild guess that he's the most likely to fall in Australia. He's only reached the quarters in the last 2 years there too.

If all 4 get the the semis in Oz then it moves to the French, and Murray would be red hot favourite to be the one that falls early. He's quite simply not as good a player on clay as the other 3, and is vulnerable to a lot of players in the top 20 on that surface.

If they all get to the semis at the French, then I'd say the most likely to fall early at Wimbledon is Federer... Not because I think he's on the wane that much, but just because I think if he could choose one more slam to win it would be SW19, and because it means a bit more to him I think that makes him a bit more susceptible. Plus, he's gone out relatively early (for him) the last 2 seasons.