Heino review so far ...

From the Herald:

"How Europe is shaping up

Pool 1

Munster now have full control of the pool. Meanwhile Llanelli Scarlets, having already beaten Northampton on their travels will finish host the English side next before finishing against a Castres team that will have no real incentive to win. That being the case, the Scarlets must believe they can pick up two more wins and even a bonus point or two to have a real chance of going into the Heineken Cup quarter-finals as one of the best runners-up.

As things stand Munster would be in the Heineken Cup quarter-finals and Scarlets in the Amlin Challenge Cup quarter-finals.

Pool 2

The pool table gives a slightly misleading impression since it was clear when Dan Parks opted to kick the ball dead at Murrayfield with his team trailing by seven points on Friday, that Cardiff felt they had done the job they were looking to do. While try count places Edinburgh top at present, should both still be tied on points at the end of the pool campaign – and that is a very real possibility since Racing Metro will consider themselves out of contention while Cardiff are likely to kill off London Irish's interest in the next round of matches – it is the Welsh side that will have the upper hand on the basis of their head-to-head meetings. Two wins will, however, take Edinburgh into the quarter-finals for only the second time in their history.

As things stand Edinburgh and Cardiff would both be in the Heineken Cup quarter-finals.

Pool 3

It seems harsh given that they have lost just one match, but Glasgow's failure to secure a bonus points thus far couple with Saturday's draw in Montpellier means Glasgow have little real hope of making the Heineken Cup quarter-finals even if they can overcome defending champions Leinster at Firhill and follow that up with a win Bath and win. Leinster are all but through but they will still arrive in Glasgow determined not only to maintain their unbeaten record, but to enhance their chances of the top seeding in the quarter-finals that would be theirs if the draw was made now.

As things stand Leinster would be through, while Glasgow would be worst placed of the six teams in second spot so would miss out on the knockout stages of both competitions.

Pool 4

Pundits love a group of death and while Aironi have not contributed in any way, failing to secure so much as a bonus point, all three of the other teams has pretty much an even chance of progression. Ulster's position atop the pool is a slightly misleading because they alone have played the Italian province twice and must still face both their rivals and they have to beat Leicester at Ravenhill in the next round of matches to set up what would almost certainly be a winner-takes-all match against Clermont Auvergne. Leicester will, however, probably have to win with a bonus point in Belfast to have full control of their chances of topping the pool. They are currently only one point ahead of the French club who have the upper hand on them in their head-to-head and, if Leicester were to win in Ulster then Clermont would surely fancy their chances of securing bonus points in both their remaining matches.

As things stand Ulster would be in the Heineken quarter-finals, while Leicester would miss out on one of the two best runners-up spots on try count, so would go into the Amlin.

Pool 5

A combination of their own home and away wins over the Ospreys and Biarritz's slip against Treviso in Italy has put Saracens in the driving seat with the French club due to visit them next time around. Even if the French side produce an upset in that match they still face a tricky meeting with the Ospreys in their final match while, for all that Treviso are unbeaten at home so far, Saracens will surely win their final match in Italy.

As things stand Saracens would have qualified while Biarritz would join them since they are on 12 points, the same as Leicester and Harlequins, whom they lead on try count.

Pool 6

After being well beaten by the four-time champions at Twickenham the previous week, Harlequins salvaged their own pride and, in many ways, that of English rugby with their rousing performance in Toulouse at the weekend. On the face of it, that has blown the pool wide open, but having a one-point advantage and the better of their head-to-head encounters with the English champions league leaders it is still very much in Toulouse's control. They will fully expect to win with a bonus point when Connacht visit next while Harlequins are engaged in an English derby with a Gloucester team that has kindled a little hope of involvement in the knockout stages of at least one of Europe's competitions and it is also hard to see Toulouse slipping up in Gloucester in the final round when everything is on the line.

As things stand Toulouse would be through to the last eight with Harlequins just missing out on try count."

must....not....edit....first line of pool 1 summary

Agree though that Scarlets are at least in with a shout of the Amlin QF. Not guaranteed to win our last two games by any means though. Tough, tough task still ahead for us.

Aslongasbut100 nice summary but you should change Quins in pool 6 to English league leaders. They aren't the champs yet.

Haven't Leicester only lost once? Surely if they win against Ulster they will win the pool?

Good summary though.

beshocked, good points - not my summary, so can't take any credit/demerits

diolch As

Just cos its you, Shovey

Thank you

beshocked wrote:Aslongasbut100 nice summary but you should change Quins in pool 6 to English league leaders. They aren't the champs yet.

Haven't Leicester only lost once? Surely if they win against Ulster they will win the pool?

Good summary though.

Leicester are a point ahead of Clermont. If clermont get 10 and leicester 9 from the remaining games Clermont would top the pool.

There is more chance of Clermont winning the pool given that their away game is at aironi and not Ravenhill. leicester could well be out by the time they play aironi in round 6.

Standulstermen wrote:

beshocked wrote:Aslongasbut100 nice summary but you should change Quins in pool 6 to English league leaders. They aren't the champs yet.

Haven't Leicester only lost once? Surely if they win against Ulster they will win the pool?

Good summary though.

Leicester are a point ahead of Clermont. If clermont get 10 and leicester 9 from the remaining games Clermont would top the pool.

There is more chance of Clermont winning the pool given that their away game is at aironi and not Ravenhill. leicester could well be out by the time they play aironi in round 6.

Not true... It goes on games won.... then head to head (or so I have been informed) if Tigers & Clermont are level pegging on points.

I'd be pretty hacked off losing only 1 game and not winning the group!

I dont think thats right Metal but i stand to be corrected. hopefully someone can enlighten us

we were in that position last year (although we didnt finish level on pointswith biarritz) but we only lost one game and finished 2nd

(ii) if Clubs are equal on points and the Clubs are in the same Pool, then qualification / ranking will be based on the two matches played between the Clubs concerned:

Its head to head.

cheers dodger.

thought as much

Never worry about Metal tiger because you'll be losing two games!!

SUFTUM!

Actually here's all of it, it can be a bit confusing:

(ii) if Clubs are equal on points and the Clubs are in the same Pool, then qualification / ranking will be based on the two matches played between the Clubs concerned:

(a) the Club which has earned the most number of match points from the two matches (four points for a win, two points for a draw and bonus points).
(b) the Club which has scored the most tries in the two matches.
(c) the Club with the best aggregate points difference from the two matches.

Aye but essentially because Clermont got the away BP and leicester didnt leicester would be 2nd

Metal Tiger wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:

beshocked wrote:Aslongasbut100 nice summary but you should change Quins in pool 6 to English league leaders. They aren't the champs yet.

Haven't Leicester only lost once? Surely if they win against Ulster they will win the pool?

Good summary though.

Leicester are a point ahead of Clermont. If clermont get 10 and leicester 9 from the remaining games Clermont would top the pool.

There is more chance of Clermont winning the pool given that their away game is at aironi and not Ravenhill. leicester could well be out by the time they play aironi in round 6.

Not true... It goes on games won.... then head to head (or so I have been informed) if Tigers & Clermont are level pegging on points.

I'd be pretty hacked off losing only 1 game and not winning the group!

Isn't that what happened to Ulster last year ?

We won 5 games, Biarritz won 4 but came top because of the head-to -heads

This is why Clermont are in pole position, why Ulster have the hardest finish but still totally in their own hands and why Leicester (bar the performance of the tournament at Ravenhill) are very unlikely to top the group even with 9 more points. Failing to get any bonus points so far is probably a death nail to Leicester.

Did we finish level on points? i couldnt remember. i thought they were one ahead but yes they won 4 and we won 5.

The group winners look easier to predict this year than usual. But the two best 2nd place spots are anybody's.

Ulster do have a chance of taking 4 points in ravenhill against the Tigers and the fact that the Tigers didn't get the bonus point against Aironi may yet cost them

geoff998rugby wrote:

Metal Tiger wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:

beshocked wrote:Aslongasbut100 nice summary but you should change Quins in pool 6 to English league leaders. They aren't the champs yet.

Haven't Leicester only lost once? Surely if they win against Ulster they will win the pool?

Good summary though.

Leicester are a point ahead of Clermont. If clermont get 10 and leicester 9 from the remaining games Clermont would top the pool.

There is more chance of Clermont winning the pool given that their away game is at aironi and not Ravenhill. leicester could well be out by the time they play aironi in round 6.

Not true... It goes on games won.... then head to head (or so I have been informed) if Tigers & Clermont are level pegging on points.

I'd be pretty hacked off losing only 1 game and not winning the group!

Isn't that what happened to Ulster last year ?

We won 5 games, Biarritz won 4 but came top because of the head-to -heads

This is why Clermont are in pole position, why Ulster have the hardest finish but still totally in their own hands and why Leicester (bar the performance of the tournament at Ravenhill) are very unlikely to top the group even with 9 more points. Failing to get any bonus points so far is probably a death nail to Leicester.

I thought Biarritz were on more points than you? Nothing to do with the head to head?

Metal Tiger both were on 22.

Leinster are the clear favourites at the moment and the only team to have taken real control of their group.

A lot of teams seem to be beating each other with the Toulouse/Quins and Clermont/Tigers games prime examples

bedfordwelsh wrote:Leinster are the clear favourites at the moment and the only team to have taken real control of their group.

A lot of teams seem to be beating each other with the Toulouse/Quins and Clermont/Tigers games prime examples

But Munster are the only team that have won every single match they played.

red_stag wrote:

bedfordwelsh wrote:Leinster are the clear favourites at the moment and the only team to have taken real control of their group.

A lot of teams seem to be beating each other with the Toulouse/Quins and Clermont/Tigers games prime examples

But Munster are the only team that have won every single match they played.

Good point stag. Talking about other teams beating each other, Leinster are benefiting a bit from having Bath and Montpelier in their group. So far these are arguably the weakest English and French teams in this years HC.

Not taking away from Leinster putting in the performances and getting the wins but there are a lot more difficult matches beyond the group stage.

How are the teams that drop down to the Amlin decided, is it just the next 4 (?) after the top 8 teams that go down or something? And how many points do teams usually have to get to get in as a runner u? Someone mentioned 18ish which means Quins only need to get maybe 6 points from two games to get through (lots of hoping).

Yappy,

The 2 teams that are 2nd in their group but better than the other 2nd placed teams go through to the HEC Quarters, the next best three drop to the Amlin Quarters.

That leaves one HEC team that is second in their group but has no further European competition that year!

Cheers MrsP, so that's currently Glasgow who are bottom on 10 points and we're stuck with 3 others on 12 with Blues on 13. Interesting stuff!

Not convinced of the point of looking at how things stand currently as there are some very tight groups where the order of teams won't be decided till the final whistle of round 6.

Two years ago we were in with a shot of an HEC quarter final at the end of our match and by the end of the weekend we were the one 2nd placed team to miss out on even the Amlin!

Lots of rugby still to play this year in the group stages. The Fat Lady hasn't even started her pre-performance vocal exercises yet.



Although, since everyone agrees I think it would be a great idea to just declare the pool stages over and use the current standings to decide the quarter finalists!

Just like Glasgow to end up second but not go through. Typical

Scot,

Don't worry.

I'm not sure I'm going to be able to convince absolutely everyone of my plan to just declare the pool stages over now.

There's bound to be someone who would like 2 more rounds of blaming the ref cos their team lost!

You called, MrsP?




ah I dunno, there are so many teams that are in with a shout of getting a runners up spot. Bonus points are going to be key.

A note on pool 2.

Whilst Edinburgh and the Blues are firmly in the driving seat, Irish and Metro are at home in R5, and both a capable of TBP wins. If that were to happen which is not inconceivable (although unlikely on current form), then the table would have Edinburgh, Blues and Irish all on 13 points and Metro on 12 going into R6.

I am not sure a pool has ever got to R6 with all 4 teams still in with a realistic shout at qualifying, but the potential for it is there this time around.

Ozzy3213 wrote:A note on pool 2.

Whilst Edinburgh and the Blues are firmly in the driving seat, Irish and Metro are at home in R5, and both a capable of TBP wins. If that were to happen which is not inconceivable (although unlikely on current form), then the table would have Edinburgh, Blues and Irish all on 13 points and Metro on 12 going into R6.

I am not sure a pool has ever got to R6 with all 4 teams still in with a realistic shout at qualifying, but the potential for it is there this time around.

I certainly can't remember a group being that tight for all 4 teams. Definitely only one team to come out of there is R5 was to that way. Would 2nd place even make it to the Amlin?

Ozzy3213 wrote:A note on pool 2.

Whilst Edinburgh and the Blues are firmly in the driving seat, Irish and Metro are at home in R5, and both a capable of TBP wins. If that were to happen which is not inconceivable (although unlikely on current form), then the table would have Edinburgh, Blues and Irish all on 13 points and Metro on 12 going into R6.

I am not sure a pool has ever got to R6 with all 4 teams still in with a realistic shout at qualifying, but the potential for it is there this time around.

Except that RM92 have lost every home game so far? Keep clutching at the straws, Pete!!

Pool 1.

Saints are buried but news of their demise is possibly premature.

I'd not be surprised if there was a Zombie scare awaiting ...

Even if they win their remaining two, would they qualify Portnoy?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:A note on pool 2.

Whilst Edinburgh and the Blues are firmly in the driving seat, Irish and Metro are at home in R5, and both a capable of TBP wins. If that were to happen which is not inconceivable (although unlikely on current form), then the table would have Edinburgh, Blues and Irish all on 13 points and Metro on 12 going into R6.

I am not sure a pool has ever got to R6 with all 4 teams still in with a realistic shout at qualifying, but the potential for it is there this time around.

Except that RM92 have lost every home game so far? Keep clutching at the straws, Pete!!

I'm following the Gibbo method...


BELIEVE!!!

Ozzy why are London Irish so unbelievably inconsistent? How could you hammer Racing Metro away but lose at home?

beshocked, I was away at the weekend so didn't see the game so it's tough for me to comment on the reasons why we lost.

What I would say is we have struggled for consistency of selection this season for a number of reasons which doesn't help with maintaining performance levels, and sad as it is to say as I do rate him as a coach, I think Booth has made some selection and tactical errors this season which have cost us games.

If we can get a settled side out after Christmas (we have a lot of players coming back from injury or bans in the next fortnight) then we may find that the level of consistency in performance improves.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Even if they win their remaining two, would they qualify Portnoy?

They can't As.

But the assumption (P1) "Munster now have full control of the pool. Meanwhile Llanelli
Scarlets, having already beaten Northampton on their travels will
finish host the English side next before finishing against a Castres
team that will have no real incentive to win. That being the case, the
Scarlets must believe they can pick up two more wins and even a bonus
point or two to have a real chance of going into the Heineken Cup
quarter-finals as one of the best runners-up."

Saints could win both or one or either of their remaining fixtures. I fancy them to win both - they (and Castres) still remain as king-makers.

But I fancy that the Saints will not be rumbled at home against Munster after narrow loss and at PYS after what was a freak(ish) loss at FG.

Ozzy3213 wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:A note on pool 2.

Whilst Edinburgh and the Blues are firmly in the driving seat, Irish and Metro are at home in R5, and both a capable of TBP wins. If that were to happen which is not inconceivable (although unlikely on current form), then the table would have Edinburgh, Blues and Irish all on 13 points and Metro on 12 going into R6.

I am not sure a pool has ever got to R6 with all 4 teams still in with a realistic shout at qualifying, but the potential for it is there this time around.

Except that RM92 have lost every home game so far? Keep clutching at the straws, Pete!!

I'm following the Gibbo method...


BELIEVE!!!

Actually, it wouldn't come as a total shock to me for Embra to lose their remaining two fixtures in the pool, just to dash all my hope as per!!

Likewise As. There is an equal chance for me that Irish could take 10 points or 0 points from our remaining two games!

I think the home game to Castres is crucial to Munster, you'd expect them not to slip up there.

I have a feeling that Northampton might just put Munster to the sword. There's a real grudge building between the two teams so you'd imagine that Saints will take that one very seriously regardless if they have a shot of qualifying or not.

Agreed, rodders, could see that happening, altho I don't think it would affect qualification much?

Scarlets have probably blown their chances by losing to Munster twice.

A win for Saints vs Munster would be very handy though. Don't want Munster being unbeaten.

As it stands I think the quarter finalists will look like

1.Leinster
2.Munster
3.Saracens
4.Toulouse
5.Clermont
6.Cardiff
7.Harlequins
8.Edinburgh

Leinster vs Edinburgh
Munster vs Quins
Saracens vs Cardiff
Toulouse vs Clermont

I could be completely wrong though. As a Saracens fan I would be very pleased with that.

You don't think the Tigers or Ulster will make it Beshocked?

Roddersm I think it's a real toss up for the best runners up spots - Tigers/Edinburgh/Quins.

Can't see Ulster sneaking in because even if they do beat Tigers they have to play Clermont away.

I thought Tigers could top the pool if they picked up 9 points against Ulster and Aironi but after you and others explain it to me - it might not be enough to top the pool.

It gets really confusing when teams are on the same points. What is the tiebreaker system?

As it stands I think the quarter finalists will look like

1.Leinster
2.Munster
3.Saracens
4.Toulouse
5.Clermont
6.Cardiff
7.Harlequins
8.Edinburgh

Leinster vs Edinburgh
Munster vs Quins
Saracens vs Cardiff
Toulouse vs Clermont

If it ended up like that then it would be a good mix up of teams/countries

2 Irish
2 English
2 French
1 Welsh
1 Scots

First off you would say all home wins but after turning Toulouse over out in France Quins would feel happy with that draw.

By the way this is what I think will happen. It doesn't mean I will be right. There could well be some shock results to come.

Bedfordwelsh true it would be a good representation and it could well happen.