HC Qualification

So, bear with me here.....as it stands Qualifiers are:

Munster
Cardiff/Edinburgh
Leinster
Ulster/Clermont
Saracens/Biarritz
Toulouse

Sooo, for the runner ups it becomes

Cardiff/Edinburgh
Ulster/Clermont
Saracens/Biarritz/Ospreys

Very interesting combinations there - my interest being unashamadley with the Ospreys:
Cardiff/Edinburgh - one wins with the other not getting anything
Ulster/Clermont - Ulster win
Ospreys win (with bonus point)

=Ospreys go through....after a draw in Treviso that's pretty crazy.

So - question - if Ospreys and Edinburgh/Cardiff are on the same points, who will go through? Is it on points difference?
ATM:
Ospreys: +26
Edinburgh: -5
Blues: +29

I think I am correct in saying that in the case of the Blues/Edinburgh its the head to heads that decide it first so the Blues would get the nod there.

If teams from other groups are tied on points then its tries scored as the first decider not points.

The results tonight has made the qualification very interesting, Quins must be gutted but they should have taken the penalty instead of the scrum, the Ospreys made the same mistake to their cost against Sarries. Ospreys have little or no chance, their away record is poor.

Ulster are definitely thorough.

We have 4 teams definitely through and 3 are Irish

So out of the games left that matter tomorrow heres what I predict but bare in mind my predictions have been poor so far

Clermont Auvergne v Ulster - Home win

Leinster v Montpellier - Home BP win

Northampton v Munster Home win Munster to get LBP

Cardiff Blues v Racing Metro Home win

Edinburgh v London Irish Home win

Treviso v Saracens Away win

So that would leave the qualifiers like this

Leinster 25pts
Saracens 22pts
Blues 21pts
Munster 21pts
Clermont 20pts
Toulouse 18pts

Edinburgh 21pts
Ulster 19pts

Which means we could be looking at quarters of

Leinster v Ulster
Saracens v Edinburgh
Blues v Toulouse
Munster v Clermont

Of course as I said my predictions been a bit off of late so who knows

geoff999rugby wrote:Ulster are definitely thorough.

We have 4 teams definitely through and 3 are Irish

I think there will be 5 through from the Pro12 as can't see either the Blues or Edinburgh losing tomorrow.

I think you are right but only 4 teams are definitely through

Clermont Auvergne v Ulster - Home win 4 - 0/1


Leinster v Montpellier - Home win 4 - 0

Northampton v Munster 4 - 1
Most likely?

Cardiff Blues v Racing Metro 4 - 1 (or 4 - 0 makes no difference)

Edinburgh v London Irish 4 - 1 (or 4 - 0 makes no difference)

Treviso v Saracens 4 - 0/1 (could be 5 - 0/1 :/)


Leinster 24
Saracens 22/23
Munster 21
Blues 21
Clermont 20
Toulouse 18
..................................
Edinburgh 21
Ulster 19/20


That gives playoffs of

Leinster vs Ulster (looks likely)
Saracens vs Edinburgh
Munster vs Toulouse
Blues vs Clermont

As a Blues fan...I dont fancy facing Clermont :/ - Id rather Toulouse, we like beating Toulouse in Europe.

Then my prediction for the SF is

Leinster vs Clermont
Saracens vs Munster

Final

Leinster vs Saracens

Winner

Leinster

.....................

Looks like Leinster have set up a nice home run to the final again

As a Blues fan,

Fingers crossed that we get a TBP and Saracens lose in Treviso, then we sneak up the rankings.

Wales606, the draw for the semi final is open, ie if all of those Predictions come true we'd be just as likely to play Clermont away as would would at home.

I can see ulster winning their game.
Their recent form and the chance of 3 Irish sides with home games plus taking a bit of heart and pride from their Connacht brothers performance last night may inspire an away win.

No one expected a Connacht win but win they did. Anything's possible.

overlordofthewest wrote:I can see ulster winning their game.
Their recent form and the chance of 3 Irish sides with home games plus taking a bit of heart and pride from their Connacht brothers performance last night may inspire an away win.

No one expected a Connacht win but win they did. Anything's possible.

Overlord,

As a neutral would love Ulster to win so good luck to them, was the Connacht result really that big a shock. Those who have watched the Magners/Pro12 know that a wet windy night at the sprotsground is never easy place to win.

Did Quins go there maybe expecting just to win?

Don't get me wrong Bedford, I think everyone who supports the pro 12 knew Connacht were in with a shout. I also think we wanted them to win more than expected/thought they would. One of the best of the Aviva vs one of the poorest of the pro 12 was in most peoples eyes a foregone conclusion. They were wrong.
As much as you yourself knew Connacht's capabilities at home on a stormy night, would you have put money on it? Probably not. So whilst it's not a shock as such it was against the odds.

As for Ulster, hopefully we'll be having a similar discussion after they win against the odds. Again, they can win it but they are far from favorites.

Good luck Ulster

Interesting. Would London Wasps (2nd lowest in AP) beat Leinster in a home game?

Well, as Connacht has proven, anything is possible...but....

Pro12 seems to be rising from the ashes of the ridicule it's lived with for quite some time from our friends across the water - oh, the English ones I mean.

Connacht have had a torrid time of it in the HC (and Pro12!) but that one win will bounce their confidence right back up. Elwood is proving to be an exceptional coach, given that he has had to virtually rewrite everything from scratch given the clean out of players last year. But next season he'll have consolidated his new bunch even more.