Nadal v Federer. Who Will Win?

Nadal and Federer will play for the first time since 2005 in a slam semi. Both no doubt would like to start the year holding one of the big four trophies but only one of these players can progress to the final. Who will it be?

It's 50:50 in my book.

The matchup advantage keeps Nadal in it.

However, if the conditions are cool and there is no wind he will find it hard to contain Federer, providing Roger can play at his current level. The ball won't bounce as high and Nadal won't be able to generate as much spin as in hot conditions. The wind obviously hurts Fed more (despite both being excellent wind players) because he plays closer to the lines with less margin for error.

For Nadal the gameplan is simple. As he stated in his book - play everything to the Federer BH and wait for him to miss. It's a dull, cowardly tactic, but effective nonetheless because he has the wheels and the engine to retrieve endlessly.

I hope Federer wins because his brand of tennis is just more inspiring. It's kind of like Brazil vs Italy in football. Attack and flair vs defense and negativity.

I'm gonna go for Roger in 4, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Nadal prevail in five.



emancipator

I was waiting for someone to put this poll up!

It's really hard to say, I voted for Fed (no surprise there) but as I've said elsewhere, Fed hasn't beaten Nadal in a slam for 4 1/2 years and it's hard to say what we will see from them. I agree that the first set is crucial (more for Fed but also key for Nadal) and there's no doubt in my mind we will be looking at 4 sets (minimum) unless Fed takes it in str8 sets (which I see as a more realistic possibility than for Nadal, after all, Fed took a set off Nadal even @ RG last year).

I guess the RG match gives pause to the feeling that the match up and one boring plan will prevail.

I dunno, depends on conditions and Feds health. I suppose there's no reason why Federer shouldn't win, Berdy nearly did today and he's no big deal. I just suspect Nadal will makes it a fitness contest and bore his way through it.

As much as it pains me, I voted for Nadal. Federer can be playing his best ever tennis, but when he comes up against Nadal in a slam everything seems to change. I just hope he thinks back to how he played recently at the WTF against Nadal and try to replicate it. Unfortunately, I think Rafa's toothless performance helped somewhat that day, and I think another poor Nadal showing will be necessary for Roger to prevail.

I agree with what bogbrush & Chaz have said, I think most people would agree that Fed has got the ability and skill to beat Nadal, but when it comes to the actual execution of it, Fed stumbles, in a way he doesn't with any other player. However, I still live in hope, it might not be so abundant during the match though!

I will have exam when the match is playing. But I don't mind, cause it's the most boring matchup at the top. The only thing more boring in tennis must be watching Roddick or Pushniacki.

Oh, and I think Nadal will win (i guess in four sets) and ruin my predictions for 606 vs tour 2012. Let's hope Djokovic is in the final so he can give Nadal a proper (straight sets this time?) spanking.

Hope is a good thing.

I voted for Nadal purely because he is a bad match up for Federer. Its not that Federer does not have the skills or the game to beat him but he gets himself into knots when they play.

The WTF RR match may give him some inspiration but Nadal was not 100% in November unlike now. I think the taped knee is nothing serious as he does not seem to be suffering any ill effects.

I think maybe Nadal in 4. He is not going to go away especially with news of Djokovic having breathing difficulties etc. If Murray were to down Djokovic, then its slam no 11 for Nadal without a doubt.

I will say Federer in 4. I think he is playing far too well and far too aggressively. Nadal has shown some signs of aggression, but if he starts too defensively, Federer will eat him up. If Nadal starts on the front foot, he could take Federer in 3. Soon as I am going on current form, Federer will just have too much for him. Shades of WTF for sure.

The poll at this time is tied at 14 all. I wonder if that indicates it will be a close match?

These polls don't mean anything. Most polls on the internet have Federer ahead by a big margin but that's only cause he has far more fans than The Nadull and most of them vote with their hearts and not their heads.

I am a Federer fan but I voted Nadal. To me, it is 60/40 Nadal due to mental, history and match up. However I expect and hope for a good, competitve game. If it's as good as their 2009 match it'll be awesome.

A Federer win evens up the rivalry a bit more, especially at slams. A Federer win and you can make the case that Nadal's head to head lead at slams is due to the fact that Nadal failed to make finals consistently outside of RG. A Nadal win and that case is destroyed, then you can make the case that Nadal always wins these matches at slams apart from when he was a teenager on grass that he wasn't fully familiar with....

Since the beginning of 2009, three years ago, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have only met twice in Grand Slam Tournaments. In total they have met 9 times in slams. The first time they met it was in a semi-final, while all other times it was in finals.

They have met 5 times at Roland Garros, with Nadal winning all five matches; winning four in four sets and one in three sets. They have met three times at Wimbledon, with Federer winning the first two times (in four and then in five sets) and Nadal winning the last time (in five sets). They have met once at the Australian Open with Nadal winning in five sets.

Year	Slam	Stage	Winner	Score
2011	Roland Garros	Final	Nadal	7-5, 7-6(3), 5-7, 6-1
2009	Australian	Final	Nadal	7-5, 3-6, 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-2
2008	Wimbledon	Final	Nadal	6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-7(8), 9-7
2008	Roland Garros	Final	Nadal	6-1, 6-3, 6-0
2007	Wimbledon	Final	Federer	7-6(7), 4-6, 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-2
2007	Roland Garros	Final	Nadal	6-3, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
2006	Wimbledon	Final	Federer	6-0, 7-6(5), 6-7(2), 6-3
2006	Roland Garros	Final	Nadal	1-6, 6-1, 6-4, 7-6(4)
2005	Roland Garros	Semi	Nadal	6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3

In this meeting Federer is fairly fresh only having played four rounds of tennis (he had a walkover in the second round). He has won comfortably in straight sets in all four matches he has played. Two and a half months ago he beat Nadal 6-3 6-0 in the World Tour Final Tournament. At Roland Garros in 2011 he lost the first two sets narrowly 7-5 and 7-6, won the third set 5-7 but then faded in the fourth. This time around he should be at least fit enough to challenge Nadal over five sets. One should also consider Nadals possible decrease in confidence having been the "whipping boy" to Djokovic last year.

This time around he should be at least fit enough to challenge Nadal over five sets.

Federer's level of play should be good enough to overcome the obstacle of the moonballer, however we know from experience that Roger usually fails to keep up his big serving the longer the match goes on, a la 2011 USO semi's.

The poll results did correctly predict a Nadal win.