How fast can Mo Farah go over 10000m?

So, after Mo's latest exploits on the streets of New York to a superb win and a new UK best of 60:23 over the half marathon, how fast do you think Mo could run over 10000m this season? I guess everyone and anyone around must have been convinced by now that Jon Brown's UK record over the distance looks on borrowed time and it's a matter of when and where Mo opts to turn up to race in the event!

To set the scene, Jon Brown's UK record is 27:18.14, recorded in Brussels in 1998. At present Mo Farah's best is 27:28.86, set last summer in Marseille. Interestingly this is only a second better than Chris Thompson's PB, set in that infamous Stanford race where Chris Solinsky broke the 27 minute barrier last May.

I for one would LOVE to see our top distance runners line up against the top American guys in that race - Solinsky, Galen Rupp, Tim Nelson and Robert Curtis VS Farah, Thompson, Andrew Lemoncello and Andy Vernon.

On current form I think Mo can run around 27:10 - 27:15 for 10,000m - but I would add that if Thompson made it a priority he could run inside 27:18 as well.

I think that he ought to be able to go under 27:20. How much further is the open question and his form from yesterday suggests he could get well under it.

He'd have to go some though to be a genuine medal threat given the strength of the east africans, who always seem these days to be able to spring someone new out of the hat.

Would be nice to see some depth in this event which has been rather weak for quite a few years.

My own view? I think everything indicates something towards under 27 mins for Mo this season but I wouldn't expect that as early as Stanford, or even Hengelo (don't know if there's a 10000m race on this season but traditionally there is) come to that. Brussels (Ivo van Damme meeting) could be the ideal venue for that both in terms of usual conditions and timing, although I don't know whether there's going to be a 10000m race held there either - last year was the first edition I can remember without it.

I suspect if he keeps on improving as he is then Jon Browns records could well be threatened. As for going under 27 minutes this year I doubt it, how many in the world went sub 27 last year?

How many in the world went sub 27 last year is very irrelevant, in also an off-season for many athletes without Olympics or World Champs involved, while whether Mo is in shape to do it is what matters in the case. And he's shown he's well on the way.

2 went under last year but the WR is a lot under and I guess medals could be won under 27 minutes in 2012.

Thanks teasoc this is helpful when asked to make a guess. Why was my last post removed moderator?

Your post was removed (as another one in another thread a week ago) simply because it was provoking so you know where the line stands.

Now, what carries weight, first and foremost, over whether Mo Farah could draw under 27 mins over 10000m is what shape and form is in himself, having offered already many strong indications, rather than how many may have done so last season. As well as finding the right race to do it.

Even if there had been 20 under that barrier last summer, that wouldn't make a difference if he wasn't himself capable of pulling it off. Simple as that. In the same light, since there wasn't a single runner worldwide under 12:50 over 5000m last year you would draw that none would possibly do that again this season but I've already spotted three Ethiopians, two-thee Kenyans, a couple of Americans and - why not - Mo himself that are all capable of drawing there.

You also tend to miss that there was pretty much of an off-season for many non-Europeans last year, without a global championships around, so numbers were inevitably bound to drop off, further quality races over the distance were at a premium.

Mo's 27:28 PB was run off a second 5km in 13:38 in not quite the best of conditions and on a lone run out in the front. With a more even pace and someone to push him on in the later stages, he could have gone at least around 27:20 in that race.

Further, he turned up in even better form than that in the Europeans where he was apparently in around 27:10 - 27:15 shape or thereabouts to toy with the field so nonchalantly. Mind you, Chris Thompson was a 27:29 runner out there and the difference in class between the two was so apparent while he went on to run 12:57 over the 5000m a little later into the season, a very sound platform to run a time in the low 27 mins over the longer distance.

On top of that, he's already moved up a level on last season and he's been beating people around he could have hardly touched a year ago. Running 60:23 off negative splits to beat someone like Gebremariam, in a sprint finish and over a distance towards his upper boundary at that, fully demonstrates how far he has come - and there's more to come.

Mo Farah's new coach Alberto Salazar engineers an assault on the dominance of East African runners in the distances in his Nike-backed stronghold in Oregon through a wide range of technology and new ways of training that could see the double European champion as a major benefiary in his own pursuing of glory next year in London:

http://m.guardian.co.uk/sport/london-2012-olympics-blog/2011/mar/29/alberto-salazar-mo-farah-olympics?cat=sport&type=article

Can't help but say that there is a certain irony in using Mo as he is himself from East Africa by birth.

hahaha... You've got a point, Teassoc, but then again Mo is British first and foremost and rivals the East African dominance himself in the British colours, along with Gallen Rupp who's the other main charge of Salazar's.

lsabre wrote:you know where the line stands.

Good one.

Nevertheless, US mile record holder Alan Webb appears to have left Alberto Salazar's group the other way round.