Aviva Prem Round 15 Preview

Sorry for the delay folks.

So we're at the 15th round of the premiership and lets hope it lives up to last weekends surprisingly good spectacle in the snow. The table at the moment it incredibly tight between third and 8th place, with only 4 points between the teams!

Team Pts
Harlequins 51
Saracens 48
Northampton Saints 37
Leicester Tigers 36
Exeter Chiefs 35
Sale Sharks 34
London Irish 34
Gloucester Rugby 33
Bath Rugby 29
Worcester Warriors 26
London Wasps 22
Newcastle Falcons 13

Saturday 18th Feb:
Bath Rugby v Gloucester Rugby
It's the biggest rivalry in the Prem and Glos are the raining champs with 7 wins out of their last 8 meetings (stat courtesy of HKC). Bath though come in to the game with a good run of form (5 wins om the bounce) mainly helped by playing their first team all through the LV cup. For me though Gloucester still look to have too much talent across the field and I think will contain the Bath loosies which is their main strength. I expect a bit of an arm wrestle but Glos to win by 5.

London Wasps v Exeter Chiefs
Wasps looked to have found a glimmer of form last week against Saracens, but still couldn't produce the goods for a win. Exeter on the other hand have just completed the double over the Tigers. Off the back of these games you can't look past an efficient Chiefs win with the forwards bullying Wasps all over the park. Exeter by 3.

Newcastle Falcons v London Irish
Falcons put in one of their best performances against Baff last week in a losing cause, but they'll be worried about the try scoring dynamism of this LI team. The Exiles usually struggle at this time of year but if they have a few of their injured back I expect a try bp win over a Falcons teamt that just can't keep up with them. LI by 12.

Northampton Saints v Sale Sharks
Northampton are beginning to get in to gear as they near the key part of the season, without any other tournaments to worry about you have to fear them even though they may have lost to Gloucester on the weekend few teams could have kept them at bay with the strength of their pack. Sale managed to limp past Worcester in a match that stole something from me. Northampton will have far too much for a suspect Sale scrum and expect to see your second tbp of the weekend here. Saints by 9.

Harlequins v Worcester Warriors
Quins can look back on the weekend and be pleased with the way they came back to beat a spirited LI team, although no bp was claimed there were plenty of warning signs for the other top contenders who were beginning to write them off before the weekend. Worcester were as always a pain in the *rse for Sale but even with a lot of luck they couldn't manage to beat them, I expect much the same this Sunday but hopefully a few tries too. Quins by 6.

Saracens v Leicester
I don't think anyone will forget Saracens man-shaming of Leicester at Welford Road at the start of the season, but the beast travelling to Watford is a very different animal from that of last year. Tigers have plenty of players back and this time it's Saracens who could be without key individuals. Last weekend showed that any one in the Saracens squad can follow the game plan well, but also showed a surprisingly soft underbelly which you have to expect Tigers to attack. Off the back of a surprise loss to Exeter I expect Tigers to hit the ground running and get a first away win against Saracens in three years. Leicester by 8.

So do you agree with my predictions? Or am I madly deluded to have picked 4 away winners? Let me know below.

I've just checked last weeks and it seems I managed to get them all correct. This week I will revert to my usual rubbish predictions and prove last week was nothing but a fluke.

Bath Vs Gloucester - Away win
Wasps Vs Exeter - Home win
Newcastle Vs Irish - Away win, Irish TBP
Northampton Vs Sale - Home win
Harlequins Vs Worcester - Home win, Quins TBP
Saracens Vs Leicester - Away win

Three away wins for me so maybe I'm not quite as delusional as yappysnap.

Bath bs Gloucester- Gloucester have too much and will scrape out a 3 point win. No TBP. Tries for Sharples.

Wasps vs Exeter- Exeter are proving themselves to be better than th e sum of their parts and their parts aren't too bad either. But Wasps hold on for dear life in a disappointing season and manage the least likely of all results, a 15-15 draw.

Newcastle vs Irish- sorry Newcastle, Irish played well last week and I think their backs will prove too good. 8 point win, no TBP, cruelly denying the Falcons vital points.

Saints vs Sale- can't see beyond a Saints win here, TBP even without Foden etc

Quins vs Worcester- with our backs back to nearish full strength and good enough strength in depth in the backrow to cover for Robshaw and Maurie F, I have to go with a (biased) Quins BP victory.

Sarries vs Tigers- tigers will give it a good go but Saracens are at home and have a large squad that can put out a very strong side even without their England players. Sarries win, Tigers show guys to get LBP, 5 points in it

I say the 15-15 draw is the least likely of all results. Technically I suspect other draws are less likely, and the 4-1 win is a lot less likely really so I lied

Some fascinating match ups this week, and very difficult to call.

Bath vs. Gloucester - really could go either way, derbies are always difficult to call, and this should be a cracker.

Wasps vs. Chiefs - Adams Park is a tough place to go, but the Chiefs are in decent form and Wasps are struggling. Close game, but an away win for me.

Falcons vs. Irish - For me this is simple, if the Irish pack gains parity, our backs will cause Falcons problems all day, but if their forwards get on top it could be a long afternoon. For what it's worth I thin our forwards will do enough for a decent away win.

Saints vs. Sale - This will be a close game, as Sale will come and scrap for everything, but it's a narrow home win.

Quins vs. Worcester - Worcester will try to make it an arm wrestle, but Quins have too much firepower and will run away with this one and get a TBP.

Saracens vs. Tigers - I just can't see the Tiggers upsetting the champions here. Something just doesn't seem right with Leicester at the moment and although they will push the hosts hard this is a home win for me.

Rob Baxter has told his players in no uncertain terms that this is a critical few weeks in the AP if Exe are to realise their ambitions of keeping the club moving forward (the players themselves have responded by stating that they're targeting a top 6 place by the end of the season) - ambitious talk, just hope that it can be realised

Bath Vs Gloucester - Glaws win by less than a score, with Donald Duck missing the final kick of the match that would have sealed a Barf victory!
Wasps Vs Exeter - Exe win by less than a score; Wasps are improving, but Exe have that steel about their performances these days (just ask Perpignan and the Tigers_
Newcastle Vs Irish - Falcons by less than a score, as desparation drives them on
Northampton Vs Sale - Sharks by less than score, Sale turn up and surprise Saints in their own back yard
Harlequins Vs Worcester - Quins by more than a score
Saracens Vs Leicester - Sarries by more than a score (do Tiggers have any TH props left now that White has been banned?)

ASBO, why has White been banned?!

Bold call on Falcons and Sale too!

banned for stamping I thnk

yappysnap wrote:ASBO, why has White been banned?!

Bold call on Falcons and Sale too!

I know, buy hey, might as well try and mix it up a little, otherwise it gets boring if we all make the same picks!

White stamped on Brett Sturgess's neck - in full view of the ref, who then gave him a warning! How it only carries a one week ban with White's record is a mystery tho?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

yappysnap wrote:ASBO, why has White been banned?!

Bold call on Falcons and Sale too!

I know, buy hey, might as well try and mix it up a little, otherwise it gets boring if we all make the same picks!

White stamped on Brett Sturgess's neck - in full view of the ref, who then gave him a warning! How it only carries a one week ban with White's record is a mystery tho?

Please don't get me started on the inconsistency of bans depending on what club you play for. Clearly though criticising Wayne Barnes is 18 times more serious than stamping on another mans nexk!

yappy, thank you for including my favourite stat, which shall improve this weekend!!

Bath v Glaws - Glaws by 5, winning the arm wrestle in the torrential rain that's coming and making it 8 out of 9 wins. I still feel Bath have had it easier than they think in the last few weeks. The reason they have lost 7 out of 8 is that they have not matched our physicality and this easy ride won't help them raise their game.

Wasps v Chiefs - The Chiefs pack will be too strong and will edge this by 3.

Falcons v Irish - Despite the fact Irish looked much better last week, I feel Falcons can win this, probably by 6.

Saints v Sale - I'm getting fed up with Sale. Everyime I write them off they win and everytime as I say they'll perform they're rubbish! So the fact that I feel Saints will win this by 15 means Sale will probably win!

Quins v Wuss - Quins look to be getting some form back and whilst Wuss will no doubt put in a battling display, Quins should have far too much for them and win by 12.

Sarries v Tigers - Glaws are Bath's bogey side and there is no doubt Sarries are Tigers bogey side. This will be a tense attritional affair, but Sarries know how to win and will do so by 3.

Ozzy3213 wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

yappysnap wrote:ASBO, why has White been banned?!

Bold call on Falcons and Sale too!

I know, buy hey, might as well try and mix it up a little, otherwise it gets boring if we all make the same picks!

White stamped on Brett Sturgess's neck - in full view of the ref, who then gave him a warning! How it only carries a one week ban with White's record is a mystery tho?

Please don't get me started on the inconsistency of bans depending on what club you play for. Clearly though criticising Wayne Barnes is 18 times more serious than stamping on another mans nexk!

The whole citing process is a joke at times. Sadly the IRB are too busy charging teams for crossing the 10m line during a Haka, defending refs from any form questioning of their skills, or checking what gum shield is being worn to be able to deal with this kind of crappy officiating.

I thought you'd appreciate the shout out HKC!

Is it just me that see's a Tigers win as a strong possibility then?

Tigers are probably due a win over Sarries. Cant see them putting 50 points on them though.

I would hope that Tigers can avenge their humiliation of last year this weekend. I don't expect they'll get the 50 points required though.

The OP has it about right with this match I think, this time it could be Sarries that suffer more as a result of players away to international duty. Tigers are up one week and down the next, its been a curious season, but having been down last week, I would expect them to push hard for the win here.

Tigers by 5.

White stamped on Brett Sturgess's neck - in full view of the ref, who then gave him a warning!

Got a video of the incident because I've not seen any of the game? From what I've heard the Chiefs were killing the ball and White without looking stamped on the offending Exeter player. Apparently looked bad and was always going to be a ban.

Sam, Have you got access to this: Prem TV ? It's a free resource

Not at work it seems. Will have a look once I get home. Cheers AsLong.

I would hope that Tigers can avenge their humiliation of last year this weekend. I don't expect they'll get the 50 points required though.

Missing 4 tighthead props and 3 scrum halves is not a good start.

Your back-line outside 9 looks better than Sarries right now though

With Grindal giving them poor slow ball they'll need to be. Tigers will really need to show up at the breakdown and fight for the ball as the Sarries defence is a real hassle and they will have the edge in the scrum whilst the lineout will be 50/50. Sarries still have very good counter attacking options so Flood will have to be careful with his kicks. Should be a good game and hopefully Tigers will edge it.

Quins team is up:
15. Mike Brown
14. Tom Williams
13. George Lowe
12. Tom Casson
11. Ugo Monye
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler
2. Chris Brooker
3. James Johnston
4. Ollie Kohn
5. George Robson (C)
6. Tom Guest
7. Luke Wallace
8. Nick Easter

16. Joe Gray 17. Mark Lambert 18. Tim Fairbrother 19. Tomas Vallejos 20. Will Skinner 21. Karl Dickson 22. Rory Clegg 23. Ross Chisholm

Brilliant to have Marler, Brown and Lowe back from Eng and injury. That's almost our strongest possible team bar Robshaw and tbh I think i'd prefer one of Smith or Stegmann on the wing for Monye as they offer more going forward and Brown links really well with them in attack.

In other news good to see Easter has signed on for another three years and commiserations to Mat Cairns, who's had to retire from the game on medical advice to due knee damage.

"Samoa international prop Logoviii Mulipola is given his first start in Aviva Premiership Rugby for Leicester Tigers in this Sunday's trip to Saracens.The 24-year-old tighthead is brought in due to the absence of internationals Dan Cole and Martin Castrogiovanni, and a one-week ban for Julian White.
Mulipola has made four appearances for the club this season, including starting the LV= Cup win over Harlequins, but makes his first league start at Vicarage Road this weekend.

Sam Harrison (ankle) and Alesana Tuilagi (knee) are ruled out after picking up injuries at Exeter Chiefs last Saturday, and are replaced by James Grindal and Matt Smith.

Manu Tuilagi, Toby Flood and Thomas Waldrom return from England's Six Nations preparations to resume their roles in the Leicester line-up.

Craig Newby, who captained Tigers in the Aviva Premiership Final against Saracens in May, is named among the replacements as he continues his return from injury.

Scotland Under-20s scrum-half Scott Steele is included in the matchday squad for the first time, joining England Under-20s fly-half George Ford among the replacements.

Leicester Tigers (v Saracens, Vicarage Road, Sunday 2.30pm)
15 Geordan Murphy (c)
14 Horacio Agulla
13 Manu Tuilagi
12 Anthony Allen
11 Matt Smith
10 Toby Flood
9 James Grindal
1 Marcos Ayerza
2 George Chuter
3 Logoviii Mulipola
4 Ed Slater
5 George Skivington
6 Steve Mafi
7 Julian Salvi
8 Thomas Waldrom

Replacements
16 Rob Hawkins
17 Boris Stankovich
18 Ryan Bower
19 Graham Kitchener
20 Craig Newby
21 Scott Steele
22 George Ford
23 Scott Hamilton

Saracens make just two changes to their line-up with Schalk Brits and Neil de Kock starting the game after making a return from injury as replacements against Wasps last weekend. Matt Stevens is named on the bench after being released by England and Ben Spencer also returns from duty with England Under-20s.

Saracens
15 Alex Goode
14 Duncan Taylor
13 Chris Wyles
12 Adam Powell
11 James Short
10 Nils Mordt
9 Neil de Kock
1 John Smit (c)
2 Schalk Brits
3 Carlos Nieto
4 George Kruis
5 Hayden Smith
6 Justin Melck
7 Andy Saull
8 Jackson Wray

Replacements
16 Jamie George
17 Rhys Gill
18 Matt Stevens
19 Hugh Vyvyan
20 Will Fraser
21 Ben Spencer
22 Joel Tomkins
23 Michael Tagicakibau"

I have a nasty feeling the Sarries defence is going to keep our rather bosh heavy attack in hand and that they are going to sneak a victory by 3 points. Here's hoping I'm wrong!

That whole Tigers backline from 10 onwards are the same size and style of player (maybe). Where is the variety in play makers?

Am still banking on a Tigers win

That whole Tigers backline from 10 onwards are the same size and style of player (maybe). Where is the variety in play makers?.

Not really. The midfield do fairly well and create space/punch wholes as required. The issue is more that when the ball is shipped to the outside we don't really do anything of note. Agulla has a bit of pace and the ability to bounce pin ball style and Smith is a big lad but neither are likely to make a clean break, make a neat offload or put in a clever kick behind. As long as the defender goes low and brings them down then the move is over and seeing as both run into contact and 'go from there' then it's easily done.

And to be fair, even with those players you'll still probably create a lot more then Saracens. Just don't give away charge downs or intercepts and I don't see where they'd get a try from.

If Tigers get an early score then it would really pressure Saracens and I don't think they could get the points to make it up.

yappysnap wrote:Quins team is up:
15. Mike Brown
14. Tom Williams
13. George Lowe
12. Tom Casson
11. Ugo Monye
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler
2. Chris Brooker
3. James Johnston
4. Ollie Kohn
5. George Robson (C)
6. Tom Guest
7. Luke Wallace
8. Nick Easter

16. Joe Gray 17. Mark Lambert 18. Tim Fairbrother 19. Tomas Vallejos 20. Will Skinner 21. Karl Dickson 22. Rory Clegg 23. Ross Chisholm

Brilliant to have Marler, Brown and Lowe back from Eng and injury. That's almost our strongest possible team bar Robshaw and tbh I think i'd prefer one of Smith or Stegmann on the wing for Monye as they offer more going forward and Brown links really well with them in attack.

In other news good to see Easter has signed on for another three years and commiserations to Mat Cairns, who's had to retire from the game on medical advice to due knee damage.

Got to be careful with Worcester though. Our backs look a fair bit better than theirs for this game but with Garvey and Benjamin on the wings, if they get it out wide we could find ourselves in trouble. Need Wallace and Guest to really pressurise Perry and slow the ball down so it stays stodgy in the backline

Bugger. Not the best of starts...

formerly known as Sam wrote:Not at work it seems. Will have a look once I get home. Cheers AsLong.

I would hope that Tigers can avenge their humiliation of last year this weekend. I don't expect they'll get the 50 points required though.

Missing 4 tighthead props and 3 scrum halves is not a good start.

Still, didn't seem to matter, did it?

Well not in terms of the tightheads were Mulipola was excellent (Ayerza seemed to have Nieto in his pocket for most of the game as well). With the scrum halves I think Flood was less than enthused by the nature of Grindal's passing which was pretty iffy and they really weren't on the same wave length especially towards the end of the game.

I have never rated Grindal, but I didn't think he had a bad game yesterday.

He did ok. Much better than I thought he'd do but at the same time any of the missing 3 would have provided us with quicker ball and meant we could have had more of a presence in attack as our backs were living off scraps a lot of the time. Grindal did control the forwards well enough though and the ball retention was what gave us the platform to win so I won't be too critical.

For a fourth choice SH, Grindal did OK - but his passing was dreadful. I suspect you need to have been behind the posts to really see just how innacurate, slow and loopy it was.